Autopsy Geelong Loses to Swans by 2 points - Rd 7, 2021

We lost 3 out of 4 quarters. If we are winning on stats yet losing on the scoreboard then id say there are other stats that show why we lost that are more important, and perhaps there are flaws in the stats we won in.I heard DKing this morning say we should have won on that estimated goals 111 to 70 something. There is something very wrong when there is 40 points different to the outcome.
The question you are posing - how can we win in so many statistical categories yet lose the game? - has a straightforward answer: we missed shots we would normally kick, and they were unusually accurate. That's it. Why did we miss those shots? xS is an average of every shot taken in the league over the last decade, so it accounts for factors such as distance and angle from goal. Could it be fatigue? Maybe, but then you'd expect Geelong to consistently underperform xS, and I don't think we did that last week. The more likely explanation (according to stats nerds) is randomness: we just had a bad night.
 

cowgirl_99

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"Theft" comes to mind with the result..but as they say you take your chances..etc etc...Thought the call on Jeremy Cameron was wrong big league..that ball was "live" as in not touched & it traveled the required distance..plenty of smartphone footage showing the distance & how the umpire was not calling play on like they do when the ball is touched..The umps were sub-par on Saturday night for both teams..Not surprised at the AFL apology..The best thing I saw from Geelong on the night was clearly Jack Henry..The way he moved around the ground..the way he stood at the centre of defense..ran loose..accurate passing..ruckwork..and his spoiling was something to behold.. No wonder your team has signed him up very quickly for 3 years..leadership material there... I wouldn't worry too much where the team is headed....if you are getting plenty of the ball you are doing something correct..anyhow I'm not a coach..BTW Chris Scott is brilliant love his work...Please enjoy some snaps we took..and all the best for 2021 season..sorry to hear the news of Frank Costa passing.. Your club is all the more greater thanks to Frank..

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Pollywaffle

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My point revolves around..that if we are winning on these KM's and lost then there are others that should be measured and considered before saying we dominated the game. Id say we dominated the stats sheet with these metrics on it. Even gut feel , I do not think we were in control of the game after quarter time. We were always off balance and responding.
I don't believe that winning in some of the measurables that we "dominated" mean we dominated the game. Yes they often go hand in hand with winning a lot of football but I dare say there are plenty of situations that a side has lost and won that stats..therefore..there must be other measuables that are not measured.
Lies,damned lies and statistics. (Mark Twain?)
 
"Theft" comes to mind with the result..but as they say you take your chances..etc etc...Thought the call on Jeremy Cameron was wrong big league..that ball was "live" as in not touched & it traveled the required distance..plenty of smartphone footage showing the distance & how the umpire was not calling play on like they do when the ball is touched..The umps were sub-par on Saturday night for both teams..Not surprised at the AFL apology..The best thing I saw from Geelong on the night was clearly Jack Henry..The way he moved around the ground..the way he stood at the centre of defense..ran loose..accurate passing..ruckwork..and his spoiling was something to behold.. No wonder your team has signed him up very quickly for 3 years..leadership material there... I wouldn't worry too much where the team is headed....if you are getting plenty of the ball you are doing something correct..anyhow I'm not a coach..BTW Chris Scott is brilliant love his work...Please enjoy some snaps we took..and all the best for 2021 season..sorry to hear the news of Frank Costa passing.. Your club is all the more greater thanks to Frank..

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Nice shots!
 

Sire of Claude

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Only one of our numerous pings at goal need to go through the big sticks. We lost because that didn't happen.

There are too many average kicks in the team - Bews, Dalhouse, Parfitt to name three.

Third, we spend too much time hugging the boundary line; the injury to Mieirs hurt us because he is one of the few who try to find someone in the corridor. It fascinates me that teams that are in theory worse than us seem able to play more scintillating football. Our most dynamic player right is Jack Henry, followed by the inconsistent Rohan. We have one dasher in defence - Stewart and Clark when he plays there - while the forward set-up is in a state of flux.
 

00VicWard001

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Top four usually requires a 15-7 record or better. So we now have to go 11-3 through to the end of the home and away season to make it. And we still have to play Richmond twice while doing that.

In any event, we need to beat one of Port, Demons, Bulldogs or Tigers to top four. Those are the our rivals for the four spots. I think we can rule out the idea of Richmond missing top four given their quality. So that leaves Port, Melbourne and the Bulldogs. Which of those three teams do you see us finishing ahead of?
Top four doesnt really matter (in my opinion) if we end up 5th or 6th.

We end up 5th/6th, avoid Richmond/Melbourne at the MCG or Port/WB at Adelaide oval/Marvel. There's no way we'd get a home game at GMHBA unless we ended up playing Port and we were ahead of them.

We will however get that home game at GMHBA if we end up playing WCE/Sydney/Brisbane/EFC.

The teams 6-8 are fairly weak this year and are ripe for picking for any of the top 5 contenders (yes Sydney won, but really, inaccuracy beat us not Sydney).

The top 4, double chance situation is only relevant if you aren't confident of beating a fellow top four team (double chance), or if you like to have a rest after your first win play 1 game in 3 weeks (something our team hates). So its a bit of a double edged sword for the Cats in my opinion.

I'd rather be hitting form by demolishing one of the teams 6 to 8 and then hitting a wounded losing top 4 team hard, and then taking on a lethargic winning top four team.
 

00VicWard001

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Arguing over 15m or HTB in the dying seconds is a bit of karma really. We should have lost the Lions game with a HTB.
Swings and roundabouts.
It's a funny thing this concept of Karma.

Essentially, only Geelong got their karma. Sydney stole a win, Brisbane had a win stolen from them. WHere's their karma?

Both situations are irritating, umpires, should be getting these things right, no matter what teams are playing.
 

BotsMaster

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It's a funny thing this concept of Karma.

Essentially, only Geelong got their karma. Sydney stole a win, Brisbane had a win stolen from them. WHere's their karma?

Both situations are irritating, umpires, should be getting these things right, no matter what teams are playing.
Both games should never have come down to an umpire's decision in the first place as we had control for most of those games.
 
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"Theft" comes to mind with the result..but as they say you take your chances..etc etc...Thought the call on Jeremy Cameron was wrong big league..that ball was "live" as in not touched & it traveled the required distance..plenty of smartphone footage showing the distance & how the umpire was not calling play on like they do when the ball is touched..The umps were sub-par on Saturday night for both teams..Not surprised at the AFL apology..The best thing I saw from Geelong on the night was clearly Jack Henry..The way he moved around the ground..the way he stood at the centre of defense..ran loose..accurate passing..ruckwork..and his spoiling was something to behold.. No wonder your team has signed him up very quickly for 3 years..leadership material there... I wouldn't worry too much where the team is headed....if you are getting plenty of the ball you are doing something correct..anyhow I'm not a coach..BTW Chris Scott is brilliant love his work...Please enjoy some snaps we took..and all the best for 2021 season..sorry to hear the news of Frank Costa passing.. Your club is all the more greater thanks to Frank..

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love the black and white shots.
 

00VicWard001

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OUT: Z. Guthrie, Clark, Narkle, Stanley, Miers
IN: Sav, Simmo, S. Higgins, Holmes, (Clark med sub)
Curious to see how Sav would go against Nank this year. Last year, in our home and away game, he got a little lost during the game and was bullied in the ruck. He only really came good in the forward line in the last quarter - but was inaccurate.
 

goyoucatters

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I dont think so. He turned it on after half time against the bulldogs. Very impressive. The guy is our Selwood equivalent.

I agree that Cotch is a big 'out' for them. Still, they're playing Geelong this weekend. No team better at taking a depleted opposition and making them look totally untroubled by the omissions.

Hayden McLean, anyone?
 

Spazz Cat

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We are a silly side with silly supporters who implode at each other.

The umpire has one job to do. And its to officiate on the rules, and not the vibe. If its too hard, the AFL simplify needs to simplify the rules.

Yes we need to kick straight. BUT we also need to be rewarded for taking marks.

Yes Stanley had a bad game, But do you think the WCE wanted him banished after last week.

In terms of umpires the key points the glogs at the AFL need to remember:
1. there is a rule about sliding into player legs, and it is the reason kolo is injured. there is a rule apply it
2. watch the sydney game, and watch the geelong players being tunnelled, no free applied
3. the goal review, why are we looking at whether the blal was touched when kick, are we going to use the same to see is the ball travelled the requisite distance, if the player was out of bounds when he kicked it

seriously this is amateur hour
Your the silliest bloke here.
After a loss you always get a blow in who just comes on to bag all the supporters for not enjoying the loss. Its weird.
We're not blaming the umps cause they were on our side the whole night and we didn't take our chances before one didn't go our way.
The same way we didn't praise the umps for the Brisbane game cause we knew they had the run of the green and didn't take their chances before one didn't go there way.
We are actually the best level headed supporters you will ever find.
 

Spazz Cat

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He has such a low bar, that “playing ok” is about as good as you can hope for. Seriously, if that is as good as it gets for him, why would you bother. Much rather get games into a youngster who actually has potential beyond “can sometimes play ok”.
Look it doesn't matter if he's not very good.
He is versatile and fit!
By versatile can only play in the backline.
By fit we end up with 0 rotations left at the end of the game.
He is the best we have.
 
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If Constable comes on and only get 15 possessions he is crap, one dimensional and grossly unfit. Should be delisted. (Even though we won)
Zuthrie comes on and is versatile and fit.
I was actually pretty staggered by the number of people saying things like "he didn't really stuff up", "he was ok", "did a couple of good things". He had 6 touches and zero influence in any way. He never has ever had any influence on a game. Double figure touches are rarities for him.

The bar is so low for him it's almost touching the ground.
 

Spazz Cat

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I was actually pretty staggered by the number of people saying things like "he didn't really stuff up", "he was ok", "did a couple of good things". He had 6 touches and zero influence in any way. He never has ever had any influence on a game. Double figure touches are rarities for him.

The bar is so low for him it's almost touching the ground.
I know. Good choice as sub cause he's versatile??? Just staggering.
He'll get another contract too. Will make almost a couple of hundred of grand over the next 2 years.
 
Feb 12, 2017
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If Constable comes on and only get 15 possessions he is crap, one dimensional and grossly unfit. Should be delisted. (Even though we won)
Zuthrie comes on and is versatile and fit.
Don't try work it out, you'll give yourself a headache. This is Constable coming on as the sub against Hawks, we only won by 5 points remember. 14 touches and a pretty impressive goal. Been on the list a year less than Z.Guthrie as well.

 
Nov 12, 2015
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If Constable comes on and only get 15 possessions he is crap, one dimensional and grossly unfit. Should be delisted. (Even though we won)
Zuthrie comes on and is versatile and fit.

Probably comes down to expectations.
Nobody expects anything from Zuthrie so when he doesn't stuff up people have positive reactions to his game, on the other side plenty around believe Chook is a star AFL player by potential so unless he reaches those kind of heights there are negative reactions to his game.
Personally, I don't find either to be AFL level.
 

Spazz Cat

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Don't try work it out, you'll give yourself a headache. This is Constable coming on as the sub against Hawks, we only won by 5 points remember. 14 touches and a pretty impressive goal. Been on the list a year less than Z.Guthrie as well.


I don't see a young Geelong inside mid do things often.
But when I do, I think Delist! Delist now!!!
 

Sire of Claude

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No-one has mentioned Rohan's kick in the last 2 minutes, which instead of being in to the pocket as it should have been, was kicked to a contest where it was marked by the Swans defender: the winning goal came from that rebound.
 
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Both games should never have come down to an umpire's decision in the first place as we had control for most of those games.
The Brisbane game didn’t. Brisbane kicked 5 goal and 3 behinds from umpire decisions. The umps are the only reason they were in it. Plus not calling Neales throw a minute out from the end also kept them in it.
 
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