Geelong Prospect Watch - Autumn 2011

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So this is pretty much a direct rip of the concept behind Hockey's Future. Although I haven't gone to the same lengths as the HF reviewers do - no numerical gradings etc - the same basic concept applies. I've attempted to rank our prospects on the basis of their talent, future ceiling, position (one of the reasons why Mitch Brown is No 1, for example) and time in the system. I've also taken a pretty hardline on what constitutes a prospect. Guys like Selwood and Varcoe who are young but are best 22 are out, as are fringe players like Lonergan and Blake. Drum didn't make the cut because he had four seasons of senior football under his belt before he arrived here.

I've been working on it on and off for about six months and so some of the comments might seem a bit dated in that respect. I guess a bit like that BF staple - the phantom draft - it's also not really clear what exactly this is supposed to do, it reflects my view on the player, where I think they sit relative to each other but also their long-term future at the club. One of the reasons I did it is because I understand a lot of people don't get to see the VFL and so our youngsters are a bit of a mystery. Not saying I'm an avid VFL fan who gets down there every week but have been to a fair few games over the last couple of seasons and in addition have seen some of these players at U18 level as well. Where my firsthand knowledge is lacking I've leaned on other sources like the prospectus or the opinion(s) of people I trust as judges of football talent.

Anyway, enough about me, on with the show:

  1. Mitch Brown
  2. Daniel Menzel
  3. Billie Smedts
  4. Mitch Duncan
  5. Steven Moltop
  6. Cameron Guthrie
  7. Taylor Hunt
  8. Dawson Simpson
  9. Tom Gillies
  10. Simon Hogan
  11. Trent West
  12. Nathan Vardy
  13. Allen Christensen
  14. George Horlin-Smith
  15. Josh Cowan
  16. Jack Weston
  17. Jordan Schroder
  18. Jonathan Simpkin
  19. Joshua Walker
  20. George Burbury
  21. Ben Johnson
  22. Jesse Stringer
  23. Ryan Bathie

1. Mitch Brown
KPF 20
196/85


Taken at #17 in the 2008 National Draft, Mitch Brown is the mystery man of the Geelong prospect pool. Picked on the back of an U18 season in which he was listed by Sandy mid-year after dominating for Mentone Grammar, Brown has played just a handful of VFL games in two seasons due to a wretched run with injury. Having kicked eight goals in four VFL practice matches in 2008, the youngster seemed to be fulfilling his high draft ranking when - just short of halftime - he suffered a broken leg and a dislocated ankle in the first VFL H&A game of the season. Complications to this injury delayed his start to the 2009 season and, after playing six games, he suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery, thus ending 2009 as well.

Despite this, what Brown has shown is tantalising. Mobile and strong-marking, at 196/85 he has the body of a typical modern power forward and bags of five and four goals in the VFL in 2009 suggest the football ability to go with it. If he can stay fit, Brown is Geelong’s long-term prospect at CHF and a Brown/Hawkins combination should have fans genuinely excited.

2. Daniel Menzel
Utility 19
188/79


One of the bolters of the 2009 draft, Menzel was taken at #17 by Geelong after an excellent stint for SA in the carnival at half-back. A quiet, injury-interrupted preseason meant he flew under the radar for a lot of Geelong supporters, but as soon as he reached VFL level he made an impression - including a 4-goal haul against Coburg and the sealer against reigning premiers North Ballarat. His excellent form was rewarded with an AFL call-up; he potted 4 goals over 3 games playing across half-forward.

Menzel simply oozes class. He is a superb kick (highest kicking efficiency at the 2009 Champs and a staggering 82% at AFL level) and an excellent all-round user of the football. Although not lightning quick he’s not slow and is strong overhead. If there’s a criticism it’s that he’s not hard enough at the ball, but that will change over time. Perhaps best of all he’s genuinely versatile - although the club has talked about a future in midfield he’s played across both half-forward and half-back with excellent results at both junior and senior level.

After his impressive AFL debut last season it’s likely that Menzel will push for games this year. If he does it’ll almost certainly be as a half-forward. Like a lot of current prospects the club has earmarked him as an eventual midfielder, but in reality he could play virtually anywhere. Expect him to be a regular in 2-3 seasons time.

3. Billie Smedts
Utility 18
189/76


Procured with Pick #12 in the 2010 Draft, Smedts can proudly claim to be the first return on The Ablett Defection for the GFC. He can also claim to be have been a matchwinner in his injury-interrupted U/18 season with the Falcons and a solid contributor to the Country side that won the Championship.

A genuine utility who was used in attack (11 goals in the first two TAC games of the year before being moved further up the field), midfield (30 possessions in Round 3) and defence (conceded one goal against in three games for Country), Smedts is an impressive athlete and natural footballer with no obvious weakness in his game. His side-step is a thing of beauty and while his kicking could improve his efficiency rating off the boot (hovers above 70%) is entirely respectable.

When drafted Scott described Smedts as being a future midfielder, but as his junior career shows he could reasonably be expected to play anywhere on the field and have an impact. Combined with Menzel - a player of similar quality and positional versatility - and the Cats look to have their future midfield set.

4. Mitch Duncan
Mid/Forward 19
187/82


Duncan had quite the resume going into the 2009 draft - U18 AA, member of a dominant WA team, multiple appearances for East Perth seniors in the WAFL - but slid to Geelong at #28. Played variously as a midfielder and lead-up forward in the juniors, he cracked a gig in the seniors from Round 1 as a half-forward and ended up playing eight games for the year.

He’s got ice running through his veins. A brief highlight reel of Duncan’s 2010 - starting with his first touch in the NAB Cup, where he sold a bit of candy to a Roos defender and then calmly slotted the goal from 30m out - shows a litany of clutch goals in which the youngster was totally unfazed by the pressure of tight games. His class was immediately apparent. Although he was not quite as brilliant when given a more ‘inside’ role in the VFL his general professionalism suggest the weaknesses in his game - largely a taste for the outside - will soon disappear.

Battled a hip injury late in 2010 but has again been outstanding during the NAB Cup and looks almost certain to play Round 1. Long-term is being groomed as a midfield prospect and will certainly play there in the VFL; at senior level might get some rotations through the middle but expect him to play predominantly as a half-forward. Would be staggered if he does not notch 100+ games in the hoops.

5. Steven Moltop
Forward/Mid 20
182/70


After a strong 2008 season in which he played in both the U16 and U18 carnivals for the Territory, Motlop was snagged by the Cats as a very bottom-bottom-ager with #39 in the draft. Dodgy shoulders limited him to a handful of VFL games, but he was the standout performer for Geelong in the 2010 preseason, which earned him a call-up in the seniors in Round 2. 19 minutes in he popped a shoulder again and only played six more games for the season - all in the VFL - bagging nine goals in the process.

Motlop - brother of Daniel etc - is often compared to his brother but it’s misplaced. Knows how to kick a goal and is a deceptively strong mark but also has real pace and looks to be more of a wing than a crumbing forward. His barnstorming 2009 preseason also suggests he’s got a bit more work ethic than his wayward sibling.

His 2010 preseason form has been solid without being spectacular, and you’d expect Motlop’s particular traits - pace, skill, a hint of the unpredictable - to make more of an impact at senior level. He’s also put on a bit of weight and no longer looks like an anorexic teenager next to his teammates in the hoops. Long term expect him to be Varcoe 2.0; short term, look form him to play a handful of games this season.

6. Cameron Guthrie
Mid/Def 18
186/79


Another to roll off the Calder production line, Guthrie played in both of the Cannons back-to-back premierships, played in 16 games at TAC level last season and took home a B&F as a result. He also played five games for Vic Metro across half-back in the Champs.

Although blue-collar is a bit too harsh it gives you some idea of Guthrie’s style of game. There’s nothing flashy about this kid - he’s just a very, very good footballer. The single quality constantly highlighted by both external judges and the man himself is the quality of his decision-making - Guthrie always hits the right target, demonstrated by him having the highest disposal efficiency at the carnival of any Metro player last season. His Combine testing also reveals a decent leap although he fared poorly at the endurance and ‘clean hands’ tests.

Guthrie immediately impressed in the NAB Cup - alongside Duncan a standout in the opening round-robin - and it looks as if the quality of his decision-making will stand the increased speed of senior football. Before those games I thought we’d be waiting a while to see him at AFL level - now I’m not so sure.

7. Taylor Hunt
Def/Mid 20
183/84


Nuggety small who was the Cats last pick - #49 overall - in 2008. A running defender for Sandy and Vic Metro, he continued that role in the VFL in 2009 but gradually began to move into midfield in 2010. His excellent form saw him play seven AFL games last season, averaging 15 disposals and two tackles a game.

Hunt’s primary asset is his pace. Blisteringly quick, he would be alongside Varcoe and Wojcinski as the fastest players at the club. His decision-making and kicking have steadily improved although he’s prone to taking the safe option. Not the most defensively solid player, either.

Hunt is generally projected as being a long-term option on halfback; I disagree and think his future is in midfield. He’s already played a fair bit in the VFL there and shows a strong resemblance to Nathan Foley at his best - using his pace to simply blow through the contest and out into open space. Hasn’t shown sparkling form in the preseason but should still be pushing for games this year.

8. Dawson Simpson
Ruck 22
206/105


Taken with #34 in 2007, Simpson is a long term ruck prospect who is being groomed to become the eventual No 1 at the Cattery. Having spent his first two seasons in the VFL he got his chance in 2010, playing two senior games. It was a tough baptism for Simpson - Fremantle and West Coast (perhaps more accurately Sandilands, Naitanui and Cox) at Subiaco. If Simpson didn’t set the world alight - averaging seven disposals and five hitouts - he didn’t disgrace himself, either.

There are two types of modern ruckmen: the leaping (often undersized) athlete and the truly enormous dinosaur. At 206cm and 105kg Simpson is very much of the latter category although, unlike some others of his breed, he’s a pretty decent footballer in his own right. His height and his strength are his advantages and while his tap work is not exceptional it’s not bad. He’s strong beneath his knees and has adequate disposal. He’s tough - concealed a fractured wrist during his final junior year out of fear the injury would scupper his draft chances - and has a bit of aggression, a welcome addition given his size.

Simpson is never going to reach Dean Cox levels; but he could well be a solid No 1 ruck in the vein of Mark Jamar. While you’d think it unlikely he’d play more than a handful of games this year, the looming retirement of Ottens should provide him with opportunities in the future.

9. Tom Gillies
KPD 21
192/88


Recruited from the Dandenong Stingrays with Pick #33 in 2008, Gillies had an impressive record when he arrived at the Cattery - TAC Cup Team of the Year fullback, Rays B&F and a member of a losing Grand Final side. He backed this up in his first season by playing six games in the seniors and winning the best first year player award. His 2010 was quieter, although he was one of only a few players to appear in every VFL game for the year.

A born-and-bred fullback - an almost extinct species in modern football - Gillies is strong on his man, strong overhead and reads the play well. He also has an attacking side and is willing to run hard out of defence, using his tidy disposal to clear the ball. Geelong are grooming him as the long term replacement for Matthew Scarlett and whilst it’s unfair to compare a third-year player to a once-in-a-generation champion, the combination of miserly defence and attacking flair is an exciting one that invites said comparison.

Gillies was described the Geelong coaching staff as having had a disappointing year, but this was surely as much due to his own extremely high standards as any doubt on his future. With the potential for a bit more support down back, expect Gillies to have a stronger season in the VFL; more senior games are not out of the question although the recruitment of Drum and even Smedts may frustrate this ambition in the short term.
 
10. Simon Hogan
Mid 22
182/83


Along with Trent West Hogan is the old man of the Geelong prospect pool, having been taken by the Cats with #57 all the way back in 2006. A smart kid - accepted into medicine at Monash - Hogan is another off the Falcons production line who impressed with his athleticism at draft camp. Over the course of the last four seasons has steadily progressed in the VFL and has played 21 games since making his debut in 2009.

Hogan is the classic athelete-cum-footballer, an elite middle-distance runner who finds plenty of the footy but can struggle to make the right decision. His impact at AFL level is solid without being spectacular and while he racked up some massive games in the VFL - including one 50 possession effort - never seemed to be hammering on the door for senior selection in the way that, say, Menzel did.

2011 is a make-or-break year for Hogan. The departure of Ablett opens up at least one full-time midfield position but there’s plenty of stiff competition from the younger brigade. Needs to, at the very least, show he’s good enough at AFL level to offer long-term coverage as the Class of 1999 begins to approach retirement.

11. Trent West
Ruck 23
198/104


Over the past three seasons plenty of commentators have said ‘now or never’ in relation to Trent West, and yet the young ruckman continues to get a contract at the Cattery. Drafted in 2005, West has played just 11 senior games for Geelong; yet there’s a sense that this is more to do with bad timing than any lack of ability.

West is, in many ways, identical to Vardy - both Gippsland boys who can take a strong grab, kick a goal, and perhaps don’t find as much footy as they should given their relative mobility. Unlike Vardy West has filled out and is also something of a veteran amongst the prospects - the only survivor of the 05 draft not be to a regular in the seniors. This is obvious on the field where, in the VFL at least, West is a strong leader.

West has accomplished just about all he can at VFL level and, with the new substitute rule making players of his type extremely attractive, needs to stake a claim in the seniors. His preseason suggests this might be the year. If not, expect him to either jump or be pushed.

12. Nathan Vardy
Ruck 19
198/94


One of the sliders of the 2009 draft, Vardy was talked up as being a potential late first-round pick but was eventually taken by Geelong at #. A classic ‘mobile’ ruck, Vardy was a strong performer for Gippsland and Vic Country in 2009 and backed it up last year in the VFL, kicking 16 goals over the course of 17 games.

As the above statistic suggests Vardy has all the tools to become a key forward - he’s a strong mark and can convert. But he’s also a smart tap ruckman, with a high advantage rate at TAC level. He doesn’t find a huge amount of it around the ground but that could change as he becomes accustomed to the pace of the game at senior level.

All things considered Vardy looks to be, in the brave new world of the substitute, a perfect second ruck option - mobile and genuinely threatening when placed forward. He’s been unable to participate in the preseason campaign owing to injury, and is significantly down the pecking order this season, but in the next 2-3 years expect him to get plenty of senior games.

13. Allen Christensen
Mid 19
176/77


Christensen was one of the hot prospects at the start of 2009 and his overall year seemed to confirm the hype - averaged 26 disposals and just under a goal a game for the Falcons through the season, was runner up in the Morrish medal, and played well for Vic Country. But he arrived at DC with the highest skin folds of the group by a fair margin and slid substantially as a result, the Cats eventually snaring him at #40. He had an excellent year in the VFL, finishing fourth in the B&F.

Christensen’s natural position is in the middle but can move forward and snare a goal. His height and lack of outstanding athleticism have seen him compared to Mathew Stokes but that is misleading: Christensen is a far, far classier player than Stokes in both the way he positions himself and his disposal.Although his nickname - ‘Bundy’ - and his high skinfolds might suggest a Lara tearaway, in the media Christensen has presented well and looks fit on the field. Needs to work on his endurance if he wants regular AFL games.

Christensen’s high finish in the VFL B&F and his repeated appearance in the AFL emergencies were rewarded with an extended run in the NAB Cup. Christensen looked comfortable although didn’t do anything to suggest he’ll be playing a lot of games this season. Still a long-term prospect.

14. George Horlin-Smith
Mid 18
186/78


The Hyphenator got talked up in a big way prior to the 2010 draft as the ultimate smokey - yet another extremely talented cricketer (captained Australia at U16 level) who had turned to footy and had caught recruiters eyes. Horlin-Smith played just two games for Sturt U18s last year and a had an injury-interrupted season for his school, but did enough to convince Geelong he was the right man at #37.

Having only seen him play twice, it’s hard to give any sort of real judgement on Horlin-Smith’s strengths and weaknesses as a player. He impressed in the first round of the NAB Cup and showed sound judgement and good disposal. Doesn’t seem overly athletic but is a nice size, albeit still needing to bulk up. For what it’s worth the Prospectus reports that he was top-20 at the Draft Combine in the clean hands test but recorded the worst result of any player in the kicking test. Despite his good pre-season, doubt he’ll see much action for the Cats this year.

15. Josh Cowan
Mid 20
184/72


Forgotten member of the Cats 2009 draft who played a handful of games for North Ballarat U18s and Vic Country in his U18 year. Debuted for Daylesford seniors at age 15 and was a member of their senior premiership team in 2008. He played 14 games in the VFL in 2010 and was named BOG for the Cats twice.

At just 72kg in his debut season Cowan is a slip of a lad, but doesn’t look entirely out of place at junior level. There’s nothing outstanding about Cowan; he simply looks a natural footballer. Was played through wing, half-back and the centre square in the VFL and although he shapes as an outside player this probably has more to do with his lack of size than natural inclination. Although his ceiling may be low - possibly too low for an AFL position - Cowan was one of the pleasant surprises for the Cats in 2010. Got a lot of game time in the NAB Cup and while up and down overall acquitted himself pretty well. Expect to see him in the bests for the VFL pretty regularly.

16. Jack Weston
Def/Utility 19
189/88


Weston is a medium-sized utility who was selected by Geelong with Pick # in the 2009 rookie draft after a solid season with Gippsland in the TAC. He played every game of the season in the VFL and, particularly in the second half of the year, was outstanding off half back and up forward.

Weston’s outstanding feature is his pace - the kid is genuinely quick. He’s also a pretty good natural footballer and, as his seven goals in five games shows, a potential threat up forward. The fact he hasn’t played during preseason because of an injury, would, I suggest, rule him out of contention for the position of nominated rookie but if he can reproduce his season in the VFL expect him to be on the senior list in 2012.

17. Jordan Schroder
Mid 18
182/85


Plenty of Calder players got plenty of attention during the 2010 season, but school footy and rep commitments meant they weren’t always playing a lot of football for the Cannons. Enter Jordan Schroder. Overlooked for Metro, Schroder became the grunt player for the Cannons - he lead them in disposals, contested possessions, clearances, inside 50s and goals, and was second in the TAC for clearances and fourth for inside 50s. A high finish in the Cannons B&F was a natural result.

As Schroder’s statistics suggest, he’s a classic inside midfielder who also has the ability to drift forward and kick a goal. While he lacks the explosive athleticism and devastating boot that mark elite midfield prospects, he more than makes up for it with the weight of ball he gets and his ability in front of goals. His kicking efficiency is low - just above 50% - but this is not unusual in a player who wins nearly half his possessions in the contest.

In short he looms long-term as a perfect compliment to the young Geelong midfield brigade, which - with the exception of Joel Selwood - is predominantly ‘outside’. In the short term his particular skill set is not in high demand in the seniors, so except him to spend a few seasons learning his trade in the VFL.

18. Jonathan Simpkin
Mid/Forward 23
181/82


Ex-Falcon and Swan who has spent the last three years running around for Geelong in the VFL. Taken in the rookie draft, Simpkin earned his spot after a fantastic season in which he represented the Big V and was picked in the VFL Team of the Year.

A half-forward with a turn of pace and thumping boot, Simpkin is a nice size and has kicked some bags at VFL level. Although Geelong currently have a glut of half-forwards on the list Simpkin was, alongside Duncan, a standout during the preseason and could potentially play some games this year.

19. Joshua Walker
KP 18
196/87


Grandson of a Geelong premiership player, Walker is a lead-up key forward who booted 31 goals in 13 games for the Falcons last year and, slightly less spectacularly, 3 in 4 for Vic Country. Although generally well regarded in the lead up to last year’s draft Walker ended up falling to Geelong's first pick in the rookie draft.

It’s pretty fashionable to compare yourself to Nick Riewoldt these days (as opposed to Cam Mooney - ‘yeah I always mark it within ten meters of goal and then miss’) but in Walker’s case the comparison has some merit. Extremely hard working, Walker likes making long, repeated leads to tire his opponent. He also finds a bit of the footy close to goal, averaging three marks a game inside 50. Unlike Riewoldt, though, he’s good in front of the sticks.

As his eventual fall to the rookie draft suggests, there’s just not enough polish on Walker’s game to make him a mouth-watering prospect. Given the relative glut of key forward options on the list at the moment, it looks likely he’ll spend some time down back where his size and athleticism will be of use.

20. George Burbury
Mid/Forward 18
180/69


Taken at #40 in the 2010 rookie draft, Burbury is a national U19 rowing champion who turned his back on the sport to have a crack at football. During the backend of the season he played six games for Hobart seniors, averaging a goal a game as a small forward.

21. Ben Johnson
KP 24
195/95


Originally from Bell Park, Johnson was rookied by the Cats at the end of 2009 after a strong VFL season in which he kicked a couple of bags playing as a key forward in a depleted Cats outfit. Did enough last year to retain his spot, again showing some impressive bursts as a key forward.

Does he have a future at AFL level? Bluntly, probably not. His NAB Cup was less than impressive and his tendency to drift in and out of games at VFL level suggests he’s simply not up to it. Fun to watch when he’s on, and sometimes even when he’s not - the fight he started with Chris Dawes in a practice match last year was one of my footballing highs of 2010 - but just not consistent enough.

22. Jesse Stringer
Mid 19
182/73


Blue-collar midfield type who was allegedly recruited from Port Adelaide U/18s. I say allegedly because he’s suffering from a persistent hip injury - so persistent that he didn’t play at all last year and has yet to play this year as well. Does he actually exist? We hope so, but is facing an uphill battle to keep his place on the list.

23. Ryan Bathie
KP 23
198/95


Ex-basketballer Bathie follows the modern trend of trying to turn athletes into footballers. Bathie spent four seasons playing college basketball in the States before a stint with the Tigers in the NBL. At 198/97 he has been recruited in the hope his physical attributes will, long term, be matched with some football ability. Remains to be seen if his future is ruck or key position.
 
Just to fix a couple of details, Smedts and Brown were both taken at pick 15, and Vardy at pick 42. Cowan was 56, West 31, Schroder 54. Walker went at rookie 23, Simpkin 56 and Bathie 73. Weston rookie 21, Ben Johnson rookie 37 (with Pods rookie 50) and Stringer rookie 61 was our 09 rookie draft.

Great detailed summary jester. Just a quick question, does the ranking system take into account risk, particularly that of injury list? There is no doubt to me on the VFL I saw in 2010 that Brown does rank #1 of all our prospects on talent, but he, along with Motlop, also represent the greatest risks among the crop of having a career curtailed by injury. In that sense I am far more comfortable predicting Duncan and Menzel to be 200 players even though I'd put Mitch ahead on pure natural talent.

Love that list. While it's true we are thin on key position stocks (although this could look a lot better if Gillies has a year like his first, Dawson or West come through and Drum actually gets on the park because he's got the talent), I love some of the natural class and versatility in the group. Smartly, understanding midfield spots are few and far between right now, Wells has recruited guys who are midfielders, but are versatile enough to get games elsewhere. And with the new interchange rules, that is gold for us. The combined class of Menzel who is so creative, and Smedts who is a ballerina in every sense of the word, leave me licking my lips.

Lastly, must put a shout out for young Jack Weston. Isn't getting as much talk as our other youngsters because he's currently injured, but was so impressive in the back end of 2010, I love not only his pace, but the bull at a gate way he plays. Like you, I'm predicting he'll be on the senior list next year. And the way Simpkin is playing, he may well join him.
 

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Great summary Jester. The list is nearly spot on IMO, the only change id make is to position Smedts at number 1. I rated Smedts in the top 3 at the draft and was beside myself when he fell to #15. Mark my words, and im about to make a premature call here, but i think Smedts will one day go on to win a brownlow and B+F and become an All-Australian. The kid oozes class.
 
Mar 27, 2006
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Nice piece of writing Jester. I think you have summed up each of the new draftees/rookies really well. This group has a real feel of being back in 2001 again when the likes of Corey, Chappy and Ling were in their formative years and we had just drafted Bartel, Kelly, Ablett and SJ.

I am really looking forward to particularly seeing Smedts at senior level. Just reckon this kid is special and without blowing him up too much (which I now will) could become our Brendan Goddard.
 

tomthabuddah

Team Captain
Jan 21, 2006
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Great summary Jester. The list is nearly spot on IMO, the only change id make is to position Smedts at number 1. I rated Smedts in the top 3 at the draft and was beside myself when he fell to #15. Mark my words, and im about to make a premature call here, but i think Smedts will one day go on to win a brownlow and B+F and become an All-Australian. The kid oozes class.


BIG CALL!! Looking forward to seeing him just get on the park.
 

tomthabuddah

Team Captain
Jan 21, 2006
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Nice piece of writing Jester. I think you have summed up each of the new draftees/rookies really well. This group has a real feel of being back in 2001 again when the likes of Corey, Chappy and Ling were in their formative years and we had just drafted Bartel, Kelly, Ablett and SJ.

I am really looking forward to particularly seeing Smedts at senior level. Just reckon this kid is special and without blowing him up too much (which I now will) could become our Brendan Goddard.

Again, huge call for a guy yet to play a game. I wouldnt think he has the height to play the Goddard role, but i could be wrong.
 
Dec 10, 2003
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Jester its always good to read your write ups. Im sure we all have one or two we may disagree with you on but you make such a good case its hard to argue with you

For mine and I have only seen a little of him but Id have George HS a bit higher and Gillies a bit lower. Just not sure he's got the natural athleticism need for AFL.

Weston is the wild card imo. He's the one who could come from nowhere like Rooke and become a real player for us
 

tomthabuddah

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Jan 21, 2006
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Using just the players you have selected, i would order as follows:


1: Daniel Menzel
2: Billie Smedts
3: Mitch Duncan
4: Dawson "Sandi" Simpson
5: Steven Moltop
6: Mitch Brown
7: Taylor Hunt
8: Cameron Guthrie
9: Nathan Vardy
10: George Horlin-Smith
11: Tom Gillies
12: Jack Weston
13: Simon Hogan
14: Trent West
15: Allen Christensen
16: Joshua Walker
17: Jordan Schroder
18: George Burbury
19: Jonathan Simpkin
20: Josh Cowan
21: Ben Johnson
22: Jesse Stringer
23: Ryan Bathie
 
BIG CALL!! Looking forward to seeing him just get on the park.

It is a big call and i rarely make a big call unless im extremely confident. Ive made 3 massive calls i can remember and i think ive done pretty well.
1.Watched Peter Riccardi in a reserves game in 92 i think and stated"He would play 300 games for Geelong" to my step brother.
2. Luke hodge would win a brownlow and become the of the most dominant players in the competition. Ive got the latter part right so far.
3.At the start of the 07 season i put money on Geelong for the premiership(which id previously never done and probably wont again) and said we would definately win the flag.

Ill see how i go with the Smedts prediction.
 

catswhiskers

Premiership Player
Mar 13, 2006
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I've been working on it on and off for about six months and so some of the comments might seem a bit dated in that respect.

Nothing dated there mate. Best footy read I have had for a month.

For mine for 2011 only - i would say West, Duncan, T Hunt, Menzel, Simpson (if Ottens goes down) and as rank outsider Horlin - Smith will fill the gaps. And Lonergan (a very long term prospect ) proves his worth down back.

Love to see Brown and Motlop step up but i just can't to see it this year.

Go Cats
 

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Farmer2Goggin

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Aug 17, 2009
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BIG CALL!! Looking forward to seeing him just get on the park.
Thanks Jester , great write up !!
Bit concerned about Billy - didn't realise he had injury issues last season.
Hope he gets on the park real soon , also full credit to Mitch Brown for overcoming 2 major injuries and showing what he has - we deserve a big guy to come good for us.............
 
Thanks for the kind words everyone (and the corrections PO!), glad you guys got something out of it.

On Menzel and Smedts: Menzel got the nod at #2 purely because he's shown something at senior level. I'm a bit reluctant to make player/youngster comparisons - partly because they seem to be increasingly superficial, ie Atley is Judd because he's got explosive pace - but IMO one of the exciting things about having Menzel and Smedts is that both could really turn into Goddard-style utilities. Not saying they'll be as good as him but the ability for the coaching staff on both match day and over the longer term to say 'we can play these two anywhere' is a real advantage IMO and one of the reasons they're at #2 and #3.
 

catswhiskers

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IMO one of the exciting things about having Menzel and Smedts is that both could really turn into Goddard-style utilities.

It seemed (to me anyway) that it took Goddard ( a very high draft pick) a very long time to get near the top of the pile. For a quite a while he was good ordinary. Add Hodge to that list.

Just goes to show that you can't expect too much too early. And that game time is crucial - you can't get better if you don't play at the top level. Cue West.

Thats why Duncan impresses me more than Menzel or (haven't seen yet) Smedts. Duncan has shown "it" from the get go.
 

maxy87

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Love your work Jester! It's great to have all that info in one package as it saves time scanning through a whole list of threads to find decent info on some of the newbies...

Bit unfair on Menz and Smedts to say they'll be Goddard-like IMO. It places a fair amount of pressure on them early on.. Just a thought.

One thing that really stands out about Duncan is that he's played some good footy when the majority of the best 18 has been absent. A very good sign. Menzel has showed these signs too but Duncan is a little further ahead IMO.

Hogan is the player that I think is most ready to slot in and be reasonably effective from the outset. He's played enough senior games to do this and should get more opportunities now that Gaz isn't around anymore. I'd also put Simpkin in this category because of age and physical attributes, though despite some solid performances there doesn't seem to be a telling enough case for promotion simply because we have a plethora of players that fill the same role.
 

Hood007

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Great effort Jester.
I think your list and player summaries are pretty spot on. :thumbsu:
When you add them to Selwood, Varcoe & Hawkins, Brown, Menzel, Duncan, Motlop, Smedts, Guthrie and co. have me rather excited for the future...
 
Bit unfair on Menz and Smedts to say they'll be Goddard-like IMO. It places a fair amount of pressure on them early on.. Just a thought.
Yeah that's a fair comment, as I said I just wanted to allude to a positional versatility rather than draw a direct comparison...as we all saw last September Goddard's a freak not merely because of talent but because on the biggest stage of all he was able to grab control of a game and almost drag St Kilda over the line. Who knows if Menzel or Smedts have that same grit?

One thing that really stands out about Duncan is that he's played some good footy when the majority of the best 18 has been absent. A very good sign. Menzel has showed these signs too but Duncan is a little further ahead IMO.
That was basically why he got the nod at #4. For mine Menzel showed enough of what he's capable of at senior level last year to warrant #2. Be interesting to see where they sit at the end of the season.
 

vinum coupe

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Thanks for the work Jester.
Really enjoyed being reminded of what they did / were like before we drafted them.

FWIW, Duncan may have just jumped to number one for me.
And I think he'll get plenty of midfield time this year. And when I mean plenty I mean double or triple the amount Thompson would have given him.
 
Looking at that list in the OP, there sure is a lot of fine young talent on our list at the moment. It will be interesting to see which of them can step up this year in a similar vein to how Beams, Sidebottom, Brown, Reid and Blair did at the Pies last year.

One thing's for sure though. It looks like they're going to have a bigger chance of doing just that under Scott than they ever would under Bomber. :thumbsu:
 
I think Billie's a real real talent and I can't quibble with Moondog's call too much (although it is a big call to make so early). If he hadn't had so much injury trouble in 2010 + one club with all the first round picks skewed towards picking talls, there's no chance he'd have fallen to 15. While most of the year and the period leading up to the draft I was desperate for us to go tall, I fully understand why Wells picked Billie when he slid, and it will prove to be the right call.

Agree with everyone on Duncan, I do really rate the Menzel Smedts Brown talent lineup (and they are fairly ranked) Mitch has that real mental toughness and coolness and ability to perform like a senior player at such a young age, and this may well see him become the best of the lot.

We do have so much young talent (despite the ignorant people who think we don't just because most of them haven't been played) and this is the year we really need to see some of them make strides forward so we can see what the future is like, and in this sense it's really good that we have a new coach who will actually be willing to throw these guys in the deep end rather than let them wither on the vine. As we have seen with Duncan, kids can really pleasantly surprise you when you have faith in them.
 

DanA

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Great read and pretty spot on as with anyones list mine would be a little different but it would be a little nit picky.
Pretty certain they have AFL careers:
1) Mitch Brown - Just needs to keep on the park
2) Daniel Menzel - Almost garanteed
3) Billie Smedts - Needs some fitness is all
4) Mitch Duncan - Almost Garanteed
5) Steven Moltop - Just need to keep on the park
6) Taylor Hunt - Extremely likely
7) Nathan Vardy - Huge potential but needs a bit more development
8) Cameron Guthrie - Looks ready for a couple of games
9) Dawson Simpson - I expect 1/2 a dozen this year a more later
10) Trent West - Expect to play most games
11) Allen Christensen - Needs to improve size, strength and fitness

Decent chance at AFL Career
12) George Horlin-Smith
13) Jonathan Simpkin
14) Jordan Schroder
15) Tom Gillies
16) Jack Weston
17) Simon Hogan
18) Josh Cowan


Not much chance of AFL career:
19) Joshua Walker
20) George Burbury
21) Ben Johnson
22) Jesse Stringer
23) Ryan Bathie
 

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