Banter Geelong punting related stuff

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catempire

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2004
34,827
67,358
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...e/news-story/429fe272b145319c32dbd102f617fb18
THE Cats are suddenly on the nose with punters with their premiership odds taking a dive.

Geelong opened a $6.50 chance to win the 2017 AFL flag but has since drifted to $11.

Memories of last year’s second-place finish to the home and away season on the back of 17 wins have apparently been wiped away by another disappointing finals series.

Such is the low level of expectation, the Cats have only attracted a dismal 1.8 per cent of the premiership market to be the seventh-lowest backed contender in the competition, according to the TAB.
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...e/news-story/429fe272b145319c32dbd102f617fb18

Current flag and Brownlow markets:

TAB PREMIERSHIP MARKET

1. GWS ($5.00 — 31.8%)

2. Western Bulldogs ($6.00 — 16.5%)

3. Fremantle ($15 — 10.5%)

4. Hawthorn ($9.00 — 8.7%)

5. West Coast ($11 — 7.5%)

6. Melbourne ($26 — 4.1%)

7. Essendon ($26 — 3.3%)

8. Collingwood ($21 — 3.1%)

9. St Kilda ($26 — 3%)

10. Sydney ($7.50 — 3%)

11. Adelaide ($11 — 2.9%)

12. Geelong ($11 — 1.8%)

13. Port Adelaide ($34 — 1.2%)

14. Gold Coast ($101 — 1%)

15. Richmond ($67 — 0.7%)

16. North Melbourne ($51 — 0.5%)

17. Carlton ($101 — 0.3%)

18. Brisbane ($251 — 0.1%)


2017 BROWNLOW MEDAL


$5.00 Patrick Dangerfield

$8.00 Any Other Player Not Listed

$9.00 Nathan Fyfe

$11 Marcus Bontempelli

$11 Dustin Martin

$17 Patrick Cripps

$17 Daniel Hannebery

$17 Luke Parker

$21 Gary Ablett

$21 Josh Kennedy

$21 Rory Sloane

$26+ Others Quoted
 

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Bobby_

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 5, 2013
9,443
15,265
AFL Club
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Only $15 for Freo a side that only won 4 games last year?sorry forgot they picked up Kersten.:D
They have rejuvenated their list while at the same time pumping a whole lot of games into kids last year.
You also have to factor in the injuries they sustained. Fyfe, Sandilands, Johnson played 5 games each.
The two key inclusions will be Hamling and McCarthy. It significantly bolsters their defensive capabilities as you will see Michael Johnson intercept a great deal of attacking plays with Hamling manning up the oppositions 2nd/3rd key forwards.

$2.25 to make the eight is a decent future investment if you have a spare 5k or so lying around.
 

ChookNorris

Premiership Player
Mar 17, 2014
3,511
6,033
AFL Club
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Other Teams
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They have rejuvenated their list while at the same time pumping a whole lot of games into kids last year.
You also have to factor in the injuries they sustained. Fyfe, Sandilands, Johnson played 5 games each.
The two key inclusions will be Hamling and McCarthy. It significantly bolsters their defensive capabilities as you will see Michael Johnson intercept a great deal of attacking plays with Hamling manning up the oppositions 2nd/3rd key forwards.

$2.25 to make the eight is a decent future investment if you have a spare 5k or so lying around.
Plus 12 games at Subiaco. Sadly Sandilands injured again.
 

Bobby_

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 5, 2013
9,443
15,265
AFL Club
Geelong
Plus 12 games at Subiaco. Sadly Sandilands injured again.
What did he do?
If it's long term, all bets are off. I understand Fremantle have very solid ruck depth, namely Clarke & Griffin, but Sandilands is unstoppable even at 34 years of age given his sheer size and bulk.
 

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dazbroncos

Max Rooke Appreciation Society
Oct 9, 2010
40,266
62,775
Los Angeles and Melbourne
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Other Teams
Denver Broncos, Red Bull Racing
An older body with a calf is a very dicey issue as well, that could linger much longer.

He is (literally) massive for them this year as the best ruckman should dominate now and the only other capable of beating him in a pure tap sense is Gawn
cough Deledio cough...

Go Catters
 

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
16,368
20,231
AFL Club
Geelong
Only $15 for Freo a side that only won 4 games last year?sorry forgot they picked up Kersten.:D
Holding over 10% of the market, which admittedly may not be very large. Not sure what their fixture is like to start the year, in theory it would be easy as they finished low last year, so must be some people out there buying in at $15 and hoping to trade out at $8-$10 if they hit the year running.
 

Biggy_Boy

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 8, 2007
23,540
26,532
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
GWS favourite for the flag. Interesting. Rare for a non grand finalist to be flag favourite in the preseason.
Makes sense. Of the finalists, they were the closest to beating the Bulldogs. They easily dealt with Sydney and beat the other top 4 sides throughout the year. Of the top 4 sides from last year, they still have the greatest scope for improvement and now have Deledio coming in to lend an experienced hand. Easy to make a case for the Bulldogs and GWS improving further on last year, whereas teams like Sydney, Geelong, and Hawthorn seem more likely to fall from where they finished last year.
 

cynical

Cancelled
Dec 18, 2009
6,489
6,743
AFL Club
Geelong
GWS have the most top end talent by far, only thing stopping them last year was finals experience. Now they even have Deledio, they also added some mature agers, which strengthens up their bottom end.

I'd probably wait and hope they start the season slow to put a bet on them $5 is about right, so not much value there.

I dont think Sydney have the depth they have good top end but too many inexperienced players to fill the gaps. The media will pump them up like they do every year though.

Best bet is the saints for the 8 @$2.50 (true odds should be $1.80 imo)

added J Steele and K Stevens to their already pretty good midfield
Nathan Brown is a handy defender
they also get Jake Carlisle back this year (would really strengthen their defense if he is anywhere near his best)
+ natural progression of their young list

only missed out by percentage last year
 

Stan The Caddy

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 26, 2013
7,969
11,064
AFL Club
Geelong
What did he do?
If it's long term, all bets are off. I understand Fremantle have very solid ruck depth, namely Clarke & Griffin, but Sandilands is unstoppable even at 34 years of age given his sheer size and bulk.
He's cooked Bob. Done like a dinner mate...
 

Cool Cat

Club Legend
May 25, 2008
1,275
1,421
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
They have rejuvenated their list while at the same time pumping a whole lot of games into kids last year.
You also have to factor in the injuries they sustained. Fyfe, Sandilands, Johnson played 5 games each.
The two key inclusions will be Hamling and McCarthy. It significantly bolsters their defensive capabilities as you will see Michael Johnson intercept a great deal of attacking plays with Hamling manning up the oppositions 2nd/3rd key forwards.

$2.25 to make the eight is a decent future investment if you have a spare 5k or so lying around.
Good points

EDIT though the Sandilands thing does change things somewhat
 
Last edited:

cynical

Cancelled
Dec 18, 2009
6,489
6,743
AFL Club
Geelong
Freo are still rebuilding and lack a functional forwardline.

A lot of players coming back from injury and new additions, its not a cohesive unit.

They also have a few old guys and list cloggers they need to push out, Ballantyne, Suban, Pearce, Dawson etc

Ross is smart enough to know they need to unearth a few more young guns before becoming a serious flag threat.

They tanked hard last year with only 4 wins so it's unlikely the win an extra 8 to make finals.

Ross will fast track some kids and end up with 8-10 wins.
 

ATSAM

Club Legend
Mar 6, 2009
2,888
2,712
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
GWS have the most top end talent by far, only thing stopping them last year was finals experience. Now they even have Deledio, they also added some mature agers, which strengthens up their bottom end.

I'd probably wait and hope they start the season slow to put a bet on them $5 is about right, so not much value there.

I dont think Sydney have the depth they have good top end but too many inexperienced players to fill the gaps. The media will pump them up like they do every year though.

Best bet is the saints for the 8 @$2.50 (true odds should be $1.80 imo)

added J Steele and K Stevens to their already pretty good midfield
Nathan Brown is a handy defender
they also get Jake Carlisle back this year (would really strengthen their defense if he is anywhere near his best)
+ natural progression of their young list

only missed out by percentage last year
And the only thing that stopped them having a real chance playing in the GF in 2016 was a dodgy non-free paid to them in their forward 50
 

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