Banter Geelong punting related stuff

[catempire]

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...e/news-story/429fe272b145319c32dbd102f617fb18

THE Cats are suddenly on the nose with punters with their premiership odds taking a dive.

Geelong opened a $6.50 chance to win the 2017 AFL flag but has since drifted to $11.

Memories of last year’s second-place finish to the home and away season on the back of 17 wins have apparently been wiped away by another disappointing finals series.

Such is the low level of expectation, the Cats have only attracted a dismal 1.8 per cent of the premiership market to be the seventh-lowest backed contender in the competition, according to the TAB.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...e/news-story/429fe272b145319c32dbd102f617fb18

Current flag and Brownlow markets:

TAB PREMIERSHIP MARKET

1. GWS ($5.00 — 31.8%)

2. Western Bulldogs ($6.00 — 16.5%)

3. Fremantle ($15 — 10.5%)

4. Hawthorn ($9.00 — 8.7%)

5. West Coast ($11 — 7.5%)

6. Melbourne ($26 — 4.1%)

7. Essendon ($26 — 3.3%)

8. Collingwood ($21 — 3.1%)

9. St Kilda ($26 — 3%)

10. Sydney ($7.50 — 3%)

11. Adelaide ($11 — 2.9%)

12. Geelong ($11 — 1.8%)

13. Port Adelaide ($34 — 1.2%)

14. Gold Coast ($101 — 1%)

15. Richmond ($67 — 0.7%)

16. North Melbourne ($51 — 0.5%)

17. Carlton ($101 — 0.3%)

18. Brisbane ($251 — 0.1%)


2017 BROWNLOW MEDAL

$5.00 Patrick Dangerfield

$8.00 Any Other Player Not Listed

$9.00 Nathan Fyfe

$11 Marcus Bontempelli

$11 Dustin Martin

$17 Patrick Cripps

$17 Daniel Hannebery

$17 Luke Parker

$21 Gary Ablett

$21 Josh Kennedy

$21 Rory Sloane

$26+ Others Quoted

 

[HaroLad]

I'd take 11/1.

 

[dazbroncos]

11-1 is decent return.

Id flutter there too...

Go Catters

 

[Willo_]

Clearly today's Parsons news has made the punters nervous

 

[FredLeDeux]

Clearly today's Parsons news has made the punters nervous

We've become on the nose.

 

[you pick one]

Only $15 for Freo a side that only won 4 games last year?sorry forgot they picked up Kersten.

 

[Whit3y]

i can see whit3y posting on this thread often as he likes an eddie betts

 

[Bobby_]

Only $15 for Freo a side that only won 4 games last year?sorry forgot they picked up Kersten.

They have rejuvenated their list while at the same time pumping a whole lot of games into kids last year.
You also have to factor in the injuries they sustained. Fyfe, Sandilands, Johnson played 5 games each.
The two key inclusions will be Hamling and McCarthy. It significantly bolsters their defensive capabilities as you will see Michael Johnson intercept a great deal of attacking plays with Hamling manning up the oppositions 2nd/3rd key forwards.

$2.25 to make the eight is a decent future investment if you have a spare 5k or so lying around.

 

[ChookNorris]

They have rejuvenated their list while at the same time pumping a whole lot of games into kids last year.
You also have to factor in the injuries they sustained. Fyfe, Sandilands, Johnson played 5 games each.
The two key inclusions will be Hamling and McCarthy. It significantly bolsters their defensive capabilities as you will see Michael Johnson intercept a great deal of attacking plays with Hamling manning up the oppositions 2nd/3rd key forwards.

$2.25 to make the eight is a decent future investment if you have a spare 5k or so lying around.

Plus 12 games at Subiaco. Sadly Sandilands injured again.

 

[Bobby_]

Plus 12 games at Subiaco. Sadly Sandilands injured again.

What did he do?
If it's long term, all bets are off. I understand Fremantle have very solid ruck depth, namely Clarke & Griffin, but Sandilands is unstoppable even at 34 years of age given his sheer size and bulk.

 

[ChookNorris]

What did he do?
If it's long term, all bets are off. I understand Fremantle have very solid ruck depth, namely Clarke & Griffin, but Sandilands is unstoppable even at 34 years of age given his sheer size and bulk.

6-8 with a calf apparently.

 

[Willo_]

6-8 with a calf apparently.

An older body with a calf is a very dicey issue as well, that could linger much longer.

He is (literally) massive for them this year as the best ruckman should dominate now and the only other capable of beating him in a pure tap sense is Gawn

 

[Seeds]

GWS favourite for the flag. Interesting. Rare for a non grand finalist to be flag favourite in the preseason.

 

[dazbroncos]

An older body with a calf is a very dicey issue as well, that could linger much longer.

He is (literally) massive for them this year as the best ruckman should dominate now and the only other capable of beating him in a pure tap sense is Gawn

cough Deledio cough...

Go Catters

 

[Hamingja]

Only $15 for Freo a side that only won 4 games last year?sorry forgot they picked up Kersten.

Holding over 10% of the market, which admittedly may not be very large. Not sure what their fixture is like to start the year, in theory it would be easy as they finished low last year, so must be some people out there buying in at $15 and hoping to trade out at $8-$10 if they hit the year running.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

GWS favourite for the flag. Interesting. Rare for a non grand finalist to be flag favourite in the preseason.

Makes sense. Of the finalists, they were the closest to beating the Bulldogs. They easily dealt with Sydney and beat the other top 4 sides throughout the year. Of the top 4 sides from last year, they still have the greatest scope for improvement and now have Deledio coming in to lend an experienced hand. Easy to make a case for the Bulldogs and GWS improving further on last year, whereas teams like Sydney, Geelong, and Hawthorn seem more likely to fall from where they finished last year.

 

[cynical]

GWS have the most top end talent by far, only thing stopping them last year was finals experience. Now they even have Deledio, they also added some mature agers, which strengthens up their bottom end.

I'd probably wait and hope they start the season slow to put a bet on them $5 is about right, so not much value there.

I dont think Sydney have the depth they have good top end but too many inexperienced players to fill the gaps. The media will pump them up like they do every year though.

Best bet is the saints for the 8 @$2.50 (true odds should be $1.80 imo)

added J Steele and K Stevens to their already pretty good midfield
Nathan Brown is a handy defender
they also get Jake Carlisle back this year (would really strengthen their defense if he is anywhere near his best)
+ natural progression of their young list

only missed out by percentage last year

 

[Stan The Caddy]

What did he do?
If it's long term, all bets are off. I understand Fremantle have very solid ruck depth, namely Clarke & Griffin, but Sandilands is unstoppable even at 34 years of age given his sheer size and bulk.

He's cooked Bob. Done like a dinner mate...

 

[Cool Cat]

They have rejuvenated their list while at the same time pumping a whole lot of games into kids last year.
You also have to factor in the injuries they sustained. Fyfe, Sandilands, Johnson played 5 games each.
The two key inclusions will be Hamling and McCarthy. It significantly bolsters their defensive capabilities as you will see Michael Johnson intercept a great deal of attacking plays with Hamling manning up the oppositions 2nd/3rd key forwards.

$2.25 to make the eight is a decent future investment if you have a spare 5k or so lying around.

Good points

EDIT though the Sandilands thing does change things somewhat

 

[cynical]

Freo are still rebuilding and lack a functional forwardline.

A lot of players coming back from injury and new additions, its not a cohesive unit.

They also have a few old guys and list cloggers they need to push out, Ballantyne, Suban, Pearce, Dawson etc

Ross is smart enough to know they need to unearth a few more young guns before becoming a serious flag threat.

They tanked hard last year with only 4 wins so it's unlikely the win an extra 8 to make finals.

Ross will fast track some kids and end up with 8-10 wins.

 

[ATSAM]

GWS have the most top end talent by far, only thing stopping them last year was finals experience. Now they even have Deledio, they also added some mature agers, which strengthens up their bottom end.

I'd probably wait and hope they start the season slow to put a bet on them $5 is about right, so not much value there.

I dont think Sydney have the depth they have good top end but too many inexperienced players to fill the gaps. The media will pump them up like they do every year though.

Best bet is the saints for the 8 @$2.50 (true odds should be $1.80 imo)

added J Steele and K Stevens to their already pretty good midfield
Nathan Brown is a handy defender
they also get Jake Carlisle back this year (would really strengthen their defense if he is anywhere near his best)
+ natural progression of their young list

only missed out by percentage last year

And the only thing that stopped them having a real chance playing in the GF in 2016 was a dodgy non-free paid to them in their forward 50

 

[JohnZ]

And the only thing that stopped them having a real chance playing in the GF in 2016 was a dodgy non-free paid to them in their forward 50

Sound familiar to our 2010 QF?

 

[cynical]

we are way too short against freo, should be around the $1.70 mark not $1.50

 

[catempire]

we are way too short against freo, should be around the $1.70 mark not $1.50

Make some money then.

 

[hbk_aus]

Ladbrokes giving $2 for a Tigers win tonight - pretty good value you would have to think.