Geelong - Too old, too slow?

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mrmonkey

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 3, 2010
7,128
7,295
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
How many times have Geelong been written off the last 14 years.

2010 - Everyone said they were too old and slow after they got smashed in prelim. Won a flag the next year.

2015 - Missed finals for the first time in years, came back and finished 2nd in 2016. Albeit they recruited big names in Dangerfield.

2018 - Well beaten in the elim final. Not given much chance of being a contender the next year. Strategically picked up a couple of small forwards to add some pace and pressure to a slow forward line enabling them to finish first the following year.

They still have good players and are great at strategically identifying need based talent. They have shown time and time again they can bounce back quickly.

Wouldn’t be surprised at all if they contended again next year.
I don't think everyone was writing Geelong off after 2010. I certainly don't remember it that way. I do remember a lot of hype around Collingwood being such a young team having a good future a head of them. I suppose Ablett and bomber Thompson leaving was messy so I suppose some people wrote them off but not everyone.
 

Generation X

Debutant
Sep 26, 2021
148
202
AFL Club
Melbourne
Writing them off after 2010 was pretty crazy, that generation of players certainly weren't done. Selwood, Taylor, Hawkins hitting their primes and the older guys kept that group up for a long time, plus they added the likes of Duncan and Guthrie.

Then the way they rebuilt on the run with Dangerfield, Touhy, Henderson, Dahlhaus as mature players and incredible draft picks like Stewart, Blicavs, Menegola, Tim Kelly (became Cameron) has been phenomenal too.

I guess the question is now they're looking at replacing another generation that wasn't a 3 time flag winning group but a few levels below that and there isn't Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor to hand over too. Cameron in the back end of his career, Stewart and I guess Parfitt?

They're going to have to keep nailing mature age pick ups and free agents just to stay afloat and they can't point to Selwood, Danger and Hawkins as the reasons they could jag a flag any more.

Some of their older guys who get games week after week simply aren't that good, so they won't have to find superstars, but just finding competent players isn't easy. There's a lot of sides who struggle to get a team of solid players on the ground each week.

My guess is they keep finding a way to do it for a while longer but at some stage you got to cut the cord and say unless another superstar former Geelong falcon like Dangerfield comes knocking on the door wanting a trade then what's the point trying to stay relevant but not winning it all.
Still too much talent for a sharp drop off plus their great home ground advantage means they'll probably still play finals in 22. I think it will be a slow and gradual drop off and then spend years in no mans land like North, not good enough to challenge for a GF but too good to bottom out
 

master bate

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 13, 2006
14,171
12,746
Melbourne
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Still too much talent for a sharp drop off plus their great home ground advantage means they'll probably still play finals in 22. I think it will be a slow and gradual drop off and then spend years in no mans land like North, not good enough to challenge for a GF but too good to bottom out
It took him a long time but even Brad Scott eventually said it was time for North to do a proper rebuild and then fell on his sword. Clarko a bit the same at Hawthorn.

My guess is the Cats start to turn the list over a little bit over the next 2 years which is sending off Hawkins and Selwood and giving Danger and Cameron a fair shake at it. Then if they're no closer by the end of 2023 they'll get aggressive.

They're in the position similar (but better) to late North where they don't have many (or any) great trade assets - Stewart and Cameron might be the only players who would fetch a first round pick if available, so they can't even go through the motions of a trade out like the Hawks are currently doing. Their best model would be doing a North and just dumping all the fringe guys at once, but it's not worth doing that now.
 

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BF Tiger

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 5, 2007
8,325
19,301
9th
AFL Club
Richmond
I think Chris Scott could persist with his veterans for another year or two. It’s when he admits defeat and then says to the board I really need three years to do a proper re-build (while pointing to his W-L record and very distant premiership)… do they give him that extension?
 

catscollector

Premiership Player
Jun 30, 2018
3,955
5,114
AFL Club
Geelong
It’s cooked regardless. May as well try one more time
Nah, prefer to try a whole batch of kids and lose that extra 2 or 3 games which means we finish anywhere between 7th-14th opposed to your approach which sees us slip back in the top four and then we proceed to get shafted (no lube).
 

DGroover

Senior List
Jan 31, 2016
193
202
AFL Club
Melbourne
Also they were one sh*t kick away from finishing top and changing the shape of finals.
Who knows how it would have turned out had CGuthrie not kicked it OOF. That win for melb was the turning point in the mindset of the dees that switched on their belief which carried them through.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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PhatBoy

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2016
28,890
30,823
AFL Club
Geelong
Nah, prefer to try a whole batch of kids and lose that extra 2 or 3 games which means we finish anywhere between 7th-14th opposed to your approach which sees us slip back in the top four and then we proceed to get shafted (no lube).
Why would one more year make any difference to how badly we fall
 

Pistol Night

Premiership Player
Sep 3, 2019
4,751
14,167
AFL Club
Collingwood
Nah, prefer to try a whole batch of kids and lose that extra 2 or 3 games which means we finish anywhere between 7th-14th opposed to your approach which sees us slip back in the top four and then we proceed to get shafted (no lube).
No point recruiting a whole batch of kids if you dont play them ever. Jordan Clark?
 

Shadow89

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 20, 2018
9,276
21,216
AFL Club
Geelong
The cats bring in another 30 year old in ceglar
Didn't really have a choice, as our cap is tight, and Fort (who is 28 himself) was leaving - we essentially got Ceglar for nothing and with a fair chunk of his salary paid given we gave up Brisbane's Future 3rd for him and got 50 from the Lions too (which will drift back too 42-44 after bids come in). We had to recruit someone as a backup, while Neale and Tsapatolis develop, otherwise we'd be screwed when Stanley inevitably gets injured. Sav is clearly not a ruck, so he's out too.

Also, bringing in Tyson Stengle as a 22 year old, looking at bringing in Schlensog as a DFA, and taking 4-7 picks to the senior draft/rookie draft after Henderson and Jenkins retired. It's a step in the right direction IMO, with Selwood, Dahlhaus (who will play VFL next year most likely, due to his hip injury), Higgins and Rohan, all likely to be gone by the end of next year. Draft another 3-5 players, and get some internal improvement from our other first round picks like Holmes, SDK and Cooper Stephens, and it'll be another step in the right direction too.

Still way off the best sides like Dogs and Dees, but at least that gradual transition is one that is in the right direction (as we're no longer trading out decent draft picks for mature talent - Cameron was our last big trade as he is our Hawkins replacement once he retires - but rather looking at drafting and developing ourselves).
 
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PhatBoy

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2016
28,890
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Picks inside the top 34:

Geelong: 4
Suns: 1
Adelaide: 2
North: 2
GWS: 2
Hawthorn: 3
Brisbane: 2
Fremantle: 3
Carlton: 1
West Coast: 3
Collingwood: 2
Richmond: 4
St Kilda: 1
Port: 1
Melbourne: 1
Bulldogs: 1
Sydney: 2
Essendon: 1


I fail to see how anything that’s happened in trade week miraculously makes our future suddenly way less positive
 

WillHayward

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2018
7,885
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South Melbourne
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Sydney
Picks inside the top 34:

Geelong: 4
Suns: 1
Adelaide: 2
North: 2
GWS: 2
Hawthorn: 3
Brisbane: 2
Fremantle: 3
Carlton: 1
West Coast: 3
Collingwood: 2
Richmond: 4
St Kilda: 1
Port: 1
Melbourne: 1
Bulldogs: 1
Sydney: 2
Essendon: 1


I fail to see how anything that’s happened in trade week miraculously makes our future suddenly way less positive
You have 0 in the top 20.

Freo have 3 picks before you have one.
 

PhatBoy

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2016
28,890
30,823
AFL Club
Geelong
Oh no we got rid of a ruckman in his late 20s for another who’s just turned 30!!!!

This throws all our plans into chaos we will never redress the age issue now.
 

Art Vandelay_

TheBrownDog
Oct 28, 2012
89,956
119,716
AFL Club
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Other Teams
Bushrangers, AC Milan
So like most other seasons then.

I’ll ask again.

What exactly has transpired in the last four days that suddenly makes our goal of having at least one listed player not nearing their pension any harder to reach than it was prior?
Nothing changed.

22yo Stengle in. 21yo Clark out.
28yo journeyman Fort out. 30yo Ceglar in.

Delisted/traded players were 19 (taheny), 21 (clark), 21 (brownless), 21 (kreuger), 21 (constable), 23 (Okunbor), 28 (Fort), 31 (Henderson), 32 (Jenkins).
We may take a mature draftee but most will be replaced by stengle - 22 Ceglar - 30; or by 18yo's.

But WillHayward is from the bay so not interested in a meaningful discussion. Just lame trolls and thread bumps.
 

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