Geelong - Too old, too slow?

[PJays]

Geelong hasn't finished bottom 3 since 1975.

Kardinia Park is part of the reason.

When teams like Melbourne, St Kilda, Carlton etc go into a rebuilding phase, they're playing home games at MCG and Marvel (or previously Waverley Park). Not much advantage. Compared to Kardinia Park, which keeps Geelong competitive even when they're struggling.

A good example is 2003. Cats went 7-1-14. In Geelong 3-1-4. Everywhere else 4-10.

Or 1990. Geelong went 8-14. 4-5 in Geelong, 3-9 everywhere else.

Or 1986. 7-15 record. 4-5 at Kardinia Park. 3-10 elsewhere.

They've always been competitive at Kardinia Park.

So I think Kardinia Park helps keep the Cats off the bottom.

But the reverse is also true.

Playing finals at the MCG undoubtedly more difficult when they've been playing 8 home games a year at the weird shaped Kardinia. Geelong does train at Deakin uni sometimes (dimensions of MCG), but their main training base is still Kardinia.

Consider 2017. Geelong finishes 2nd, Richmond 3rd. Geelong has to play Richmond at the G.

Or 2019. Geelong minor premiers. Collingwood 4th. Qualifying final at G. Collingwood wins.

2016. Geelong 2nd, Hawthorn 3rd. Geelong won that- a classic.

2008. Geelong loses 1 game for the entire season but loses the Grand Final on their opponent's home ground.

Every time Geelong finished higher, but effectively played an away game for their "home" final. All those teams play 12-14 MCG games every year, Geelong plays maybe 5. Big advantage for the opponent.

So it works both ways.

Kardinia Park is part of the reason they haven't finished bottom 3 since 1975.

But arguably it's also contributed to their failure to win a flag since 2011 despite finishing top 4 most years.

Playing and training at Kardinia Park means it easier to make finals, but harder to win finals once they get there.

 

[Bunnings]

It most certainly is not an oval. More peanut shaped if anything.

One side is rounded and the other is flat. Its pathetic that with the hundreds of millions spent on the stadium that they havent been made to fix it.

The SCG was forced to make the entire ground space bigger. Geelong just need to make one wing.

Coach: “we will play any team anywhere, we are a good football side. Oh hang on, I mean ay time, anywhere except for a field that’s slightly longer with skinnier wings”

Surely this defeatist mind set of you can’t beat a team on a field with skinnier wings is only adopted by supporters and not in club land… clearly your team doesn’t have to worry we play you at yours…. Although if crowds keep dropping you never know.


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[Bunnings]

But arguably it's also contributed to their failure to win a flag since 2011 despite finishing top 4 most years
.

Because so many teams have won flags since 2011, and so many teams have a successful period (3 flags is pretty successful) and then win more flags in the following decade… there are measures in place so teams don’t keep winning flags year on year, and if you think cats have had the best team on paper the last decade you are dreaming, too many holes, let’s start with the ruck situation, but there are many more. They have been good and even without playing at Geelong they would be a good side but they wouldn’t win the flag.
Wouldn’t it be interesting to see how they’d go without a home ground advantage? I wonder if there was a world pandemic and they couldn’t play at Geelong how they would go (2020 runner up)


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[le dominateur]

Danger has fallen off the cliff, cannot remember a star player going down so quickly.


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[GhostofJimJess]

That is ridiculous, it’s a footy oval, so if Melbourne played Manangatang on a particular shaped footy oval Manangatang would win, Nuff post of the season.


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Exactly right. And this is why any suggestion that Geelong playing big finals at GMHBA rather than the MCG would've given them an onfield edge over their opponents is ridiculous.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Exactly right. And this is why any suggestion that Geelong playing big finals at GMHBA rather than the MCG would've given them an onfield edge over their opponents is ridiculous.

It's a nightmare of a ground for most sides. Often you find players just outside the centre square kicking it 10 rows out of bounds. It's a super skinny ground and does really help the cats

 

[HairyO]

Coach: “we will play any team anywhere, we are a good football side. Oh hang on, I mean ay time, anywhere except for a field that’s slightly longer with skinnier wings”

Surely this defeatist mind set of you can’t beat a team on a field with skinnier wings is only adopted by supporters and not in club land… clearly your team doesn’t have to worry we play you at yours…. Although if crowds keep dropping you never know.


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Doesnt your coach bitch and moan every year about how many home games you have to play at the MCG instead of in Geelong?

Like...
Every
Single
Year
?

Is that why he has achieved nothing since he fluked a premiership in his first year with Bomber's team?

 

[PJays]

They have been good and even without playing at Geelong they would be a good side but they wouldn’t win the flag.

Maybe you're right

Maybe Geelong has looked like a contender since 2011 by winning games at Kardinia Park, but the finals have proven otherwise

That's still evidence of the broader point here- KP creates a huge anomaly between the Home & Away season and finals for Geelong that doesn't exist for other teams

Non-Victorian teams get home finals until the Grand Final

Other Victorian teams don't get true home finals (Marvel tenants), but they don't get much home advantage during the season either

Geelong plays most home games (and mostly trains) at a weirdly shaped ground. A ground not shared with any other team. But once finals start, seeya later. No more games there.

Geelong is the only team in the AFL with this situation.

So the broader point is it creates an anomaly.

Makes it comparatively easier for the Cats during the season but comparatively harder once they make finals.

 

[Chinacats]

This old chestnut thread keeps bobbing up after a loss. Let’s end it here! Yes we are too old and slow! And not good enough anymore and won’t be finishing top 4 or winning any cup in the next 7+ years. Satisfied?

 

[Bunnings]

Exactly right. And this is why any suggestion that Geelong playing big finals at GMHBA rather than the MCG would've given them an onfield edge over their opponents is ridiculous.

I’m in your camp with that, when cats have won the flag, they were the best team and when they didn’t, they weren’t.


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[Ricky Vaughn]

As a long term Geelong resident, but full on Tiger fan, it's interesting how the dynamic around the town works when it comes to the Cats. They've been so successful for so long in terms of H&A games won (especially at home where they have routinely smashed up the weaker teams) that the concept of dropping back to potentially move forward is foreign (and a perceived no no) to them. Most of their fan base seem more than happy in that they win enough games (and have that nice Monday morning during the year "we had a win" feeling) to make finals (even top 4), but when they lose the big ones when it counts in September it's a shrug and "we'll be back next year".

Yes, it is nice to waltz into work on Monday after a win, but in reality it's a bit of a false economy. Been going on for so long though that I can't see how it ever changes.

This perception of Geelong fans is insane. You need to actually need to speak to more Geelong fans rather than just get a general vibe.

 

[The 747]

The Cats have been a great side for so long and still a long way to go in the season but which of their players are likely to finish up at the end of the year?
Selwood
Higgins (Not best 22?)
Rohan (Not best 22)
Smith/Tuohy
Stanley
It will need to be staggered over the next 3 years but it also depends on who is coming through to replace those that retire and also if any trades are done to fill the gaps and with the draw power of the club i can see that as a realistic option. It may not be the A grader but someone to play a role and keep the club in contention
Not that he ever could be replaced but does the club have a key forward coming through for after Hawkins is gone?

No. That's why we recruited Cameron.

 

[The 747]

Not that many on here are interested in anything other than seagull posting, but we had quite a few inexperienced players (sub 50 games) out there yesterday.

Midfield obviously the issue though and it grows game by game. We have shown we can recruit smart to fill roles in the team but those engine room mids coming through we lack.

 

[STPer18]

Their fan base seems to blindly accept it, so why change?

How many have you talked to? Just on my own anecdotal evidence, there'd be no qualms with us dropping for a bit and giving some other blokes a chance. Seeing the early 00's team develop and turn into an eventual powerhouse was as exciting as anything. s**t, there's nothing else in Geelong apart from football - this notion that if we're not up the top of the ladder we'd abandon the game like the NRL states or some Melbourne teams are completely unfounded.

 

[Thrillhouse!]

Has playing games in Geelong, where they rarely lose, inflate their record each year? Probably.


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[Bunnings]

Doesnt your coach bitch and moan every year about how many home games you have to play at the MCG instead of in Geelong?

Like...
Every
Single
Year
?

Is that why he has achieved nothing since he fluked a premiership in his first year with Bomber's team?

Hahah, Chris Scott does not speak for me.

Is that why he’s achieved nothing in a decade? Not the only reason but probably one of many.


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[Bunnings]

Maybe you're right

Maybe Geelong has looked like a contender since 2011 by winning games at Kardinia Park, but the finals have proven otherwise

That's still evidence of the broader point here- KP creates a huge anomaly between the Home & Away season and finals for Geelong that doesn't exist for other teams

Non-Victorian teams get home finals until the Grand Final

Other Victorian teams don't get true home finals (Marvel tenants), but they don't get much home advantage during the season either

Geelong plays most home games (and mostly trains) at a weirdly shaped ground. A ground not shared with any other team. But once finals start, seeya later. No more games there.

Geelong is the only team in the AFL with this situation.

So the broader point is it creates an anomaly.

Makes it comparatively easier for the Cats during the season but comparatively harder once they make finals.

Yeah, agree with majority of that, we will see when the cats lose Selwood, Danger and Hawkins if the home ground advantage is all it cracks up to be, I suspect it won’t be.


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[azyboy]

Geelong hasn't finished bottom 3 since 1975.

Kardinia Park is part of the reason.

When teams like Melbourne, St Kilda, Carlton etc go into a rebuilding phase, they're playing home games at MCG and Marvel (or previously Waverley Park). Not much advantage. Compared to Kardinia Park, which keeps Geelong competitive even when they're struggling.

A good example is 2003. Cats went 7-1-14. In Geelong 3-1-4. Everywhere else 4-10.

Or 1990. Geelong went 8-14. 4-5 in Geelong, 3-9 everywhere else.

Or 1986. 7-15 record. 4-5 at Kardinia Park. 3-10 elsewhere.

They've always been competitive at Kardinia Park.

So I think Kardinia Park helps keep the Cats off the bottom.

But the reverse is also true.

Playing finals at the MCG undoubtedly more difficult when they've been playing 8 home games a year at the weird shaped Kardinia. Geelong does train at Deakin uni sometimes (dimensions of MCG), but their main training base is still Kardinia.

Consider 2017. Geelong finishes 2nd, Richmond 3rd. Geelong has to play Richmond at the G.

Or 2019. Geelong minor premiers. Collingwood 4th. Qualifying final at G. Collingwood wins.

2016. Geelong 2nd, Hawthorn 3rd. Geelong won that- a classic.

2008. Geelong loses 1 game for the entire season but loses the Grand Final on their opponent's home ground.

Every time Geelong finished higher, but effectively played an away game for their "home" final. All those teams play 12-14 MCG games every year, Geelong plays maybe 5. Big advantage for the opponent.

So it works both ways.

Kardinia Park is part of the reason they haven't finished bottom 3 since 1975.

But arguably it's also contributed to their failure to win a flag since 2011 despite finishing top 4 most years.

Playing and training at Kardinia Park means it easier to make finals, but harder to win finals once they get there.

Let’s cherry pick random seasons.
In 1998 we played 9 games at KP for 3 wins. We won 9 games in total for the season.
In 1999 we again played 9 games at KP for 4 wins. We won 10 games in total for the season.
Am I doing it right?

 

[Partridge]

Danger has fallen off the cliff, cannot remember a star player going down so quickly.

He's actually been declining for the last few years, but few want to acknowledge it and none in the media.

He'll probably still be All-Australian Captain.

 

[PJays]

Let’s cherry pick random seasons.
In 1998 we played 9 games at KP for 3 wins. We won 9 games in total for the season.
In 1999 we again played 9 games at KP for 4 wins. We won 10 games in total for the season.
Am I doing it right?

I picked the 3 seasons from the past 35 years where Geelong won the least games (7, 7.5 and 8) being the 3 years where they were closest to the bottom (9/12, 10/14 and 12/16). Being 1986, 1990 and 2003- illustrating how KP has helped keep them out of the bottom 2 or 3.

 

[mrmonkey]

Has playing games in Geelong, where they rarely lose, inflate their record each year? Probably.


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Maybe slightly, Geelong tend to play interstate and smaller clubs there but had they played those games at Marvel or the mcg would it have made a difference? Certainly not at their peak from 07-11 and probably not after that. Geelong making finals most years since 07 are going to have a good home ground record as most teams would when making finals.

 

[mrmonkey]

I picked the 3 seasons from the past 35 years where Geelong won the least games (7, 7.5 and 8) being the 3 years where they were closest to the bottom (9/12, 10/14 and 12/16). Being 1986, 1990 and 2003- illustrating how KP has helped keep them out of the bottom 2 or 3.

If you're looking overall record, I'm sure you'll find over the past 15 years Geelong wins 85 or 90% of games at KP and maybe 60% at MCG & Marvel which, even after accounting for other factors would show the value of playing at KP.

Eg what is Geelong's record vs Nth, WB, Saints, Melbourne at Marvel/MCG vs KP? I think this would also demonstrate the point

186 becomes 156.

 

[Wojcinski]

I picked the 3 seasons from the past 35 years where Geelong won the least games (7, 7.5 and 8) being the 3 years where they were closest to the bottom (9/12, 10/14 and 12/16). Being 1986, 1990 and 2003- illustrating how KP has helped keep them out of the bottom 2 or 3.

If you're looking overall record, I'm sure you'll find over the past 15 years Geelong wins 85 or 90% of games at KP and maybe 60% at MCG & Marvel which, even after accounting for other factors would show the value of playing at KP.

Eg what is Geelong's record vs Nth, WB, Saints, Melbourne at Marvel/MCG vs KP? I think this would also demonstrate the point

most teams win more home games than away games, I think our home ground advantage is somewhat balanced by the fact that we only get 7-9 games there a year and don't play finals there though. Our record down in Geelong is also somewhat buffed by the fact that we only get scheduled to play interstate teams, or Vic teams when they aren't going too well. We haven't played Collingwood at KP since '99, Essendon we've played once since '93, Hawthorn once since '06, Richmond once in the last decade.

 

[azyboy]

I picked the 3 seasons from the past 35 years where Geelong won the least games (7, 7.5 and 8) being the 3 years where they were closest to the bottom (9/12, 10/14 and 12/16). Being 1986, 1990 and 2003- illustrating how KP has helped keep them out of the bottom 2 or 3.

The gist of your argument is that KP has helped Geelong from bottoming out. You’ve selected three seasons to support that.

Using your timeline (86 onwards), Geelong has missed the finals on 12 occasions (from 36 seasons). On 6 of those 12 occasions Geelong has lost more games at KP than it has won. In most of those seasons Geelong has won more games away than at home (granted they play more games away than at home). Point being, that perhaps KP isn’t the fortress people think it might be. Funny how it wasn’t really spoke about pre-07.

Others have responded to your other post highlighting our successful era and the fact that we would’ve won (and did) at most venues. Was our win-loss better at KP? Yep. But we were feared. And coming to Geelong added an extra layer. Teams were beaten before they crossed the line. West Coast, Brisbane and Richmond at the G have had similar periods of home ground dominance.

When we are shite again (and we are just going at the moment) and we do tumble down the ladder, we again will lose more often at home. History has shown this and it will be so again.

Personally, the dimensions argument is classic tall poppy syndrome. People want to see Geelong fail. I get it. But good teams will find a way to win whatever ground they play on as evidenced by Freo did this year, Melb in R 23 last year (coming back from 8 goals down) and even GWS two games before that.

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

Geelong hasn't finished bottom 3 since 1975.

Kardinia Park is part of the reason.

What are you on about, what was St Kildas home ground in 1973? Oh yeah Moorabbin, then decades later it was Waverley... And the rest of the VFL teams at the time and their respective home suburban grounds?