Landgraft
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 18, 2016
- 5,555
- 10,051
- AFL Club
- Geelong
The season is over. It's time to begin again - but don't forget to let go.
For Geelong the 2018 season now boils down to the multifaceted sliding doors of finals - win and there are a huge swathe of possibilities available. Lose and every single door summarily slams shut.
In a reversal of recent years Geelong have made it through the regular season without getting much luck in the tight finishes. The one exception to that is the two Melbourne games, throwbacks to recent years where inconstant flashes of brilliance papered over any cracks.
So what does it all mean? The two clubs enter this clash with a dozen different contrasts, whichever one someone chooses to highlight probably just illustrates their bias
Hardened finals veterans vs Inexperienced up-and-comers
Finishing the season by beating top 8 sides vs Finishing the season by annihilating weak opposition
The advantage of having won the regular season games vs The burning desire for redemption
If we want to put these subjective factors to one side then we can instead look at some less ambiguous football battlegrounds.
Ruck & Roll
In round one it would almost be a kindness to say that Smith was merely beaten. He was pantsed. Gawn was at his extraordinary best that day with nearly 50 hitouts, 20 disposals and three scoring shots including two bites at a potential game winner. Come round eighteen an unexpected reversal took place where Rhys Stanley built on his rich vein of form by largely matching Gawn in the ruck and then overcoming him around the ground.
We now almost certainly go into a third different match-up with Grovedale's own Ryan Abbott ready to leap into his fourth AFL game by taking on the leagues clear dominant big man in a sudden death high-pressure final. Oof. What we do know about Abbott is that the club don't expect him to win the hitouts (there is repeated media messaging out this week where players and staff are saying they "don't expect him to get his hand on the ball as much") and so they will be expecting him to use his mobility and other attributes to contribute around the ground. Gawn has in recent weeks added a string to his bow by providing a strong defensive marking capability to support Melbourne's potentially vulnerable backline - it is entirely possible that the biggest challenge for Abbott will depend on his ability to either keep Gawn accountable or provide a viable offensive marking target where big Maxy isn't.
The HolyTrinity Quaternity Quintinity Hexinity
Selwood. Dangerfield. Ablett. Duncan. Kelly. Menegola.
They should be an awesome force feared by the rest of the competition. And yet they just aren't. An on-paper tour de force was not represented in either midfield line in this years All Australian team. Geelong are not expected to have a player come near the top of the Brownlow. The player winning the most recognition has been Kelly, at times because of the low bar set for first year players and at other times because of just how remarkable he is.
The Melbourne midfield may not have the same 'name' factor, but pose a massive threat - even before we factor in a possible return of Viney, who serves as a wild card within a final already full of possible wild cards. It won't be enough to just win the contested ball and get smashed around the clearances when it matters. It won't even be enough to rule the clearances and i50s (we learnt that against Sydney in 2016, grumble grumble). The midfield need to work all day and keep working after that. Dangerfield especially needs to preempt any accusations of only being a 1 way player and get back to the big tackles he was laying before Kruezer ruined that side of his game with a potentially lost Brownlow. No walking, no watching. Engage!
All of which doesn't even mention this latest chapter of Gary Abletts return. It may not have been entirely perfect, but he has his preferred club back and he has his back stage to play on. Let the big show commence...
The Swooping Hawk
Tom Hawkins has loved playing against Melbourne over the journey. This was often because they were a mediocre opponent vulnerable to letting him fill his boots.
They are no longer exactly that, but playing the ultimate birthday game in round 18 Tommy tore them a new one anyway. McDonald, Frost... whoever Melbourne puts on him is going to be at least a little nervous. And hopefully Tommy is as keen as I am for an encore, because with our thin forward stocks we are going to rely on some big individual games in order to make any kind of splash throughout the finals. With slightly awkward key defensive stocks and no Lever to go third man up we have a possible advantage if we can get the ball to Tommy in as many 1-on-1 situations as possible.
The Mental Game
What is Chris Scotts finals record? Is it 5-6, or 2-6 from 2012 or 2-3 from 2016?
There are several different ways to slice it, but even if there can be debate raging around whether we are underperforming or playing to our actual level there is one thing that cannot be contested.
Geelong has not impressed in September.
Should we have? Maybe, maybe not. But the closest we've gotten is the semi final against Sydney last year - a performance immediately and almost entirely undermined by being sandwiched between two losses and the associations with 2017 Sydney of starting the year 0-6. Maddeningly a loss here would not be statistically unreasonable, or significant. Yet at the same time it would feel like a nail in some proverbial coffin.
Sport is cruel, fickle and arbitrary. Geelong supporters should understand this as well as anyone. Maybe better.
But it is an emotion-fueled beast that only values results. Geelong have gone too long with having the chance to produce those results without then going on to produce them. If the club crash and burn yet again it will be a very long and dismal off-season in which we welcome Luke Dahlhaus and the unbridled scorn of David King.
Geelong by 17. Please.
For Geelong the 2018 season now boils down to the multifaceted sliding doors of finals - win and there are a huge swathe of possibilities available. Lose and every single door summarily slams shut.
In a reversal of recent years Geelong have made it through the regular season without getting much luck in the tight finishes. The one exception to that is the two Melbourne games, throwbacks to recent years where inconstant flashes of brilliance papered over any cracks.
In round 1 a Selwood and Ablett masterclass along with an irresistible second quarter surge saw the club gain the ascendancy and ultimately never surrender it. It is easy to fixate on the singular occurrence of Gawn being offline with the last scoring shot of the game it is worth remembering that there were 12 additions to the score card in that final quarter - distributed as 2.10.
J. Hogan 1.0 (extreme angle in the left forward pocket)
C. Petracca 0.2 (extreme angles in each pocket)
M. Gawn 0.2 (one snap around a congested goal square, one fairly easy set shot)
J. Harmes 0.1 (extreme range outside 50 on the right forward flank)
J. Garlett 0.1 (extreme close range to the right of goals)
Rushed Behind 0.1
D. Menzel 1.2 (Medium range set shot, set shot from just inside the 50, set shot from the goal square)
J. Selwood 0.1 (Shot from just inside the 50 that was touched on the line but was otherwise on target)
J. Hogan 1.0 (extreme angle in the left forward pocket)
C. Petracca 0.2 (extreme angles in each pocket)
M. Gawn 0.2 (one snap around a congested goal square, one fairly easy set shot)
J. Harmes 0.1 (extreme range outside 50 on the right forward flank)
J. Garlett 0.1 (extreme close range to the right of goals)
Rushed Behind 0.1
D. Menzel 1.2 (Medium range set shot, set shot from just inside the 50, set shot from the goal square)
J. Selwood 0.1 (Shot from just inside the 50 that was touched on the line but was otherwise on target)
In round 18 we faced a very different game. Melbourne took the early ascendancy, led by a brilliant performance from Clayton Oliver before Geelong decided to come late - unlike the effort when the situation was reversed earlier in the year Geelong kicked 8.0 in the last including a Zach Tuohy goal after the siren to seal a memorable brace of victories in a year where the club has otherwise struggled to lock those games away.
So what does it all mean? The two clubs enter this clash with a dozen different contrasts, whichever one someone chooses to highlight probably just illustrates their bias
Hardened finals veterans vs Inexperienced up-and-comers
Finishing the season by beating top 8 sides vs Finishing the season by annihilating weak opposition
The advantage of having won the regular season games vs The burning desire for redemption
If we want to put these subjective factors to one side then we can instead look at some less ambiguous football battlegrounds.
Ruck & Roll
In round one it would almost be a kindness to say that Smith was merely beaten. He was pantsed. Gawn was at his extraordinary best that day with nearly 50 hitouts, 20 disposals and three scoring shots including two bites at a potential game winner. Come round eighteen an unexpected reversal took place where Rhys Stanley built on his rich vein of form by largely matching Gawn in the ruck and then overcoming him around the ground.
We now almost certainly go into a third different match-up with Grovedale's own Ryan Abbott ready to leap into his fourth AFL game by taking on the leagues clear dominant big man in a sudden death high-pressure final. Oof. What we do know about Abbott is that the club don't expect him to win the hitouts (there is repeated media messaging out this week where players and staff are saying they "don't expect him to get his hand on the ball as much") and so they will be expecting him to use his mobility and other attributes to contribute around the ground. Gawn has in recent weeks added a string to his bow by providing a strong defensive marking capability to support Melbourne's potentially vulnerable backline - it is entirely possible that the biggest challenge for Abbott will depend on his ability to either keep Gawn accountable or provide a viable offensive marking target where big Maxy isn't.
The Holy
Selwood. Dangerfield. Ablett. Duncan. Kelly. Menegola.
They should be an awesome force feared by the rest of the competition. And yet they just aren't. An on-paper tour de force was not represented in either midfield line in this years All Australian team. Geelong are not expected to have a player come near the top of the Brownlow. The player winning the most recognition has been Kelly, at times because of the low bar set for first year players and at other times because of just how remarkable he is.
The Melbourne midfield may not have the same 'name' factor, but pose a massive threat - even before we factor in a possible return of Viney, who serves as a wild card within a final already full of possible wild cards. It won't be enough to just win the contested ball and get smashed around the clearances when it matters. It won't even be enough to rule the clearances and i50s (we learnt that against Sydney in 2016, grumble grumble). The midfield need to work all day and keep working after that. Dangerfield especially needs to preempt any accusations of only being a 1 way player and get back to the big tackles he was laying before Kruezer ruined that side of his game with a potentially lost Brownlow. No walking, no watching. Engage!
All of which doesn't even mention this latest chapter of Gary Abletts return. It may not have been entirely perfect, but he has his preferred club back and he has his back stage to play on. Let the big show commence...
The Swooping Hawk
Tom Hawkins has loved playing against Melbourne over the journey. This was often because they were a mediocre opponent vulnerable to letting him fill his boots.
They are no longer exactly that, but playing the ultimate birthday game in round 18 Tommy tore them a new one anyway. McDonald, Frost... whoever Melbourne puts on him is going to be at least a little nervous. And hopefully Tommy is as keen as I am for an encore, because with our thin forward stocks we are going to rely on some big individual games in order to make any kind of splash throughout the finals. With slightly awkward key defensive stocks and no Lever to go third man up we have a possible advantage if we can get the ball to Tommy in as many 1-on-1 situations as possible.
The Mental Game
What is Chris Scotts finals record? Is it 5-6, or 2-6 from 2012 or 2-3 from 2016?
There are several different ways to slice it, but even if there can be debate raging around whether we are underperforming or playing to our actual level there is one thing that cannot be contested.
Geelong has not impressed in September.
Should we have? Maybe, maybe not. But the closest we've gotten is the semi final against Sydney last year - a performance immediately and almost entirely undermined by being sandwiched between two losses and the associations with 2017 Sydney of starting the year 0-6. Maddeningly a loss here would not be statistically unreasonable, or significant. Yet at the same time it would feel like a nail in some proverbial coffin.
Sport is cruel, fickle and arbitrary. Geelong supporters should understand this as well as anyone. Maybe better.
But it is an emotion-fueled beast that only values results. Geelong have gone too long with having the chance to produce those results without then going on to produce them. If the club crash and burn yet again it will be a very long and dismal off-season in which we welcome Luke Dahlhaus and the unbridled scorn of David King.
Geelong by 17. Please.
