Geelong: why are they just not good enough?

QuietB

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May 13, 2008
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Geelong had a hot start, kids playing out of their skins early, a soft draw and were horribly out of form by the end of the year. They finished one win above 5th.

Last nights result is not entirely surprising.
 

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kickazz

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Geelong had a hot start, kids playing out of their skins early, a soft draw and were horribly out of form by the end of the year. They finished one win above 5th.

Last nights result is not entirely surprising.
Good points, (at the time though the fixture at the start of the year was considered hard, many trying 1-6 start our similar) and while the result may not be surprising, the method should most definitely be questioned.
 

QuietB

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Good points, (at the time though the fixture at the start of the year was considered hard, many trying 1-6 start our similar) and while the result may not be surprising, the method should most definitely be questioned.
But then you need to consider some of the early results. Cats jumped the pies round 1. Cats had a full preseason and pies were delayed 5 weeks cause they made a gf. There is you one game difference between 1st and 5th.

When you look at the cats draw it was so soft. Adelaide, North, Dogs, Swans and Hawthorn twice.

Got the pies early and Richmond at their lowest point before the bye. Got West Coast at Kardinia.

Geelong were a false top team.
 

PerthBoy86

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May 23, 2016
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If we lose next week he will come under pressure - there are a lot of supporters who are tired of repeating the same year over and over again, finish top 4, get jumped in a final early and claw back for an honourable loss. However, he is the winningest coach in the H&A of all time which makes it a difficult debate. Maybe he is getting an average side to a strong position with good coaching but they get exposed in the finals. Maybe another coach could fix the finals issue.
Take away your weird home ground and you're exposed for being a pretty average team. It was the same for us for many years when we played at Subi. Optus is indeed less of a fortress than Subi was, but the tradeoff is a better MCG record. It would have been unimaginable to have beaten the Pies and Hawks at the G and to lose to both at home in say 2006, when we were 1st and lost to 16th Collingwood at the G.
 

Walter H White

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They're 55-8 at GMHBA since 2012 and 70-53-2 everywhere else.

It's a weird shaped ground that nobody else seems to be able to play except for the Swans (who've beaten them 3 times). The Cats train on the ground multiple times a week and then play 7-9 games a year there. They've mastered it's unique dimensions and their game plan suits it.

They've been an average team away from the Cattery since 2012 and it shows up in finals when they can't play there.
Average? 70-53-2 is well above average for an away record.

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PP34

Finals MVP
Oct 8, 2009
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In previous years they had some really big holes in their list in my opinion. Last night they had a few plodders and still lack a quality ruck but I thought they got comprehensively outcoached.

Didn’t take on the game until the last quarter and when they did they actually gave the Pies a fright.

They probably have been helped since Dangerfield has been there by their home ground. Don’t think in any year they’ve truly looked like a proper top 4 team, they just end up there because of how well they play that ground, giving them easy wins.

Since 2011 Scott seems to have no idea how to get the Cats to look good at the MCG in September. Massive indictment on him.
 

Back One Out

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Over the years, I've noticed that a number of Geelong's stars get inflated reputations from Home & Away matches. They run up the score against weak opposition on their small home ground. They get selected in All Australian teams ahead of better players. And then in September against quality opposition on the bigger grounds, they fail to produce.

Tom Hawkins is a perfect example. (I posted this in the match thread. Thought I'd repost it here.)

Another poor finals performance last night vs Collingwood: Zero goals, zero goal assists and 4 behinds. A couple of costly misses in the 1st quarter which seemed to deflate the whole team. Went missing through the middle of the game. Had a great chance with less than a minute to go which would've reduced the margin to less than a goal. Pretty straight forward shot, only 25m out and directly in front. He also got both hands on that long centre clearance of Dangerfield's near the end of the game, but he spilled the mark in the goal square. It would've been a goal if he got out of the way and didn't touch it.


Since his break-out performance in the 2011 GF, Hawkins has been good in just one final (5 goals v NM in 2014)
In the other 11 finals, he has averaged just 3.9 marks, 1.09 goals and 0.45 goal assists


Tom Hawkins - finals (2012-2019)
2012 EF - Lost v Freo - 3 marks, 0 goals, 1 assist
2013 QF - Lost v Freo - DNP
2013 SF - Won v Port - 3 marks, 2 goals
2013 PF - Lost v Haw - 4 marks, 1 goal, 1 assist
2014 QF - Lost v Haw - 2 marks, 1 goal, 1 assist
2014 SF - Lost v NM - 13 marks, 5 goals
2016 QF - Won v Haw - 4 marks, 2 goals
2016 PF - Lost v Syd. - 4 marks, 1 goal
2017 QF - Lost v Rich - 6 marks, 1 goal, 1 assist
2017 SF - Won v Syd - 3 marks, 1 goal, 1 assist
2017 PF - Lost v Adel - 3 marks, 1 goal
2018 EF - Lost v Melb - 7 marks, 2 goals
2019 QF - Lost v Coll - 4 marks, 0 goals


Finals goals
(career)
avg
2.88 - L Franklin (24 games, 69 goals)
2.41 - N Riewoldt (17 games, 41 goals)
2.40 - J Kennedy (15 games, 36 goals)
2.33 - J Gunston (15 games, 35 goals)
2.30 - T Walker (10 games, 23 goals)
2.27 - B Hall __(22 games, 50 goals)
2.24 - J Roughead (21 games, 47 goals)
2.22 - J Riewoldt (9 games, 20 goals)
1.88 - J Brown (17 games, 32 goals)
1.87 - J Darling (15 games, 28 goals)
1.79 - T Cloke (19 games, 34 goals)
1.67 - B Fevola (6 games, 10 goals)
1.57 - J Jenkins (7 games, 11 goals)
1.50 - J Cameron (6 games, 9 goals)
1.38 - T Hawkins (21 games, 29 goals)


Don't get me wrong. He's a good player, but I just think he is massively overrated by the sycophantic AFL media.
For some reason, Geelong's stars seem to escape the media blowtorch which is applied to other under-performing stars.
 
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btdg

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Geelong have the most significant home field advantage in the league in the regular season - playing home games at a true suburban home ground, and half their away games at neutral venues. In a previous post, I estimated it worth essentially 1.5 games vs the other top 4 teams this year (Richmond, Collinwood, etc).

In 2019, that happens to be the difference between 1st and 5th, and based on performances during the season 5th is probably about where they belong (they were better than GWS, Bulldogs, etc, but on the whole, probably worse than the top 4). Change perspective to fit that, and the loss isn't surprising.

Really that was a match between 3rd and 5th on a neutral ground, where the team in 3rd was back to full strength after a bad run with injuries, and the team in 5th had been a bit off the pace in teh second half of the year. And the team in 3rd won, blowing the game out early, then hanging on to win - pretty much the 'expected result'. Next week Geelong vs West Coast will be 4th vs 5th with 4th having to travel = probably a 50/50 game.

I feel like this happens in a similar way every year. Geelong finish 1-2 games better than their performances suggest due to their home advantage. Then in the finals, they're either playing as the 'higher' ranked team against an opponent they are at best equal to, or they are the lower ranked team playing someone substantially better. Either way, their game ends up feeling like an underperformance.
 

MC Extra Dollop

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Not playing a Ruck against Grundy would be up there as an issue.
Yeah, I mean weather could have played a part and Stanley's certainly not a perfect option, but against Grundy, if your life depended on the result, he was clearly our best option to not get absolutely smashed.

And remember mid-year when the pundits were making such a huge deal about the gameplan of one player up in a contest and the rest waiting for crumbs? Not last night: it was two players spoiling each other and a Collingwood player staying down and collecting the spillage, or two Geelong players looking at each other, while a Collingwood player flew for an uncontested mark. That and the lack of pressure on Collingwood players moving the ball up the ground on the wider ground (which we had played very well during the year). And of course, Rohan and Hawkins butchering gimmes in the first quarter: never a good sign when that happens.

I suppose the silver lining from last night is it's blindingly obvious what went wrong. So it should be fixable.
 
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The 747

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Why the game plan change from earlier in the year and just refusing any fast break footy. You guys can move the ball as well as anyone.

Was it a particular game or loss that prompted the cautious style?
Just speculating but I believe he overthinks things "this is working now but they will get onto this and combat so I'll change before they do muhahaha"
 

The 747

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 19, 2008
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Geelong had a hot start, kids playing out of their skins early, a soft draw and were horribly out of form by the end of the year. They finished one win above 5th.

Last nights result is not entirely surprising.
I don't think the result last night surprised any Geelong fans unless they are deluded.
 

Gavin Excell

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Why the game plan change from earlier in the year and just refusing any fast break footy. You guys can move the ball as well as anyone.

Was it a particular game or loss that prompted the cautious style?
Who knows but its all gone to seed since the bye

I, like a number of other Geelong supporters, believe we are going nowhere under Scott
 

Damon_3388

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Over-cautious and gun-shy given the level of talent they have, especially in the midfield/half forward region.

They seem to play far too much into the "You have to play cautious in 2019, or defences will just pick you off" mindset, rather than dictating terms to the opposition and attacking like crazy, as their level of talent should often allow them to do.
 

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