Prediction Geelong will bottom out some time between 2015-2017

[Partridge]

Gee I'm surprised by that.
We weren't smacked.

I'd say Duncan would have been a certainty for some votes had he stayed out there.

 

[Moggy]

Next year will be worse than this year, in terms of ladder position, and while 2017 could go either way, I think it will probably be our low point.

Bigger picture, we will need a lot to go right to be really challenging for premierships in the next decade, or even beyond.

The group of veterans we are currently transitioning out of the team are a once in a lifetime bunch that netted us our first flags in 44 years.
The chances that the next group - even if we can stand them up while we still have Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor - will be able to emulate the departing veterans are 50/50 at best. More likely 20%.

There is also the GWS/GCS factor, when all those draft concessions come to fruition. It is reasonable to expect that they will claim 5 of the next ten flags between them.

So far, so depressing... but what natural advantages do we have?
Well, we have put together a really good culture in the last decade, and our track record in developing players is very good - barring injuries.
We have an excellent reputation when it comes to looking after players, which is a definite plus when it comes to free agents.
We have some promising kids.

We need to maximize the effect of those advantages as best we can, and hope for good draft picks and no injuries!

 

[thegerman]

Next year will be worse than this year, in terms of ladder position, and while 2017 could go either way, I think it will probably be our low point.

Bigger picture, we will need a lot to go right to be really challenging for premierships in the next decade, or even beyond.

The group of veterans we are currently transitioning out of the team are a once in a lifetime bunch that netted us our first flags in 44 years.
The chances that the next group - even if we can stand them up while we still have Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor - will be able to emulate the departing veterans are 50/50 at best. More likely 20%.

There is also the GWS/GCS factor, when all those draft concessions come to fruition. It is reasonable to expect that they will claim 5 of the next ten flags between them.

So far, so depressing... but what natural advantages do we have?
Well, we have put together a really good culture in the last decade, and our track record in developing players is very good - barring injuries.
We have an excellent reputation when it comes to looking after players, which is a definite plus when it comes to free agents.
We have some promising kids.

We need to maximize the effect of those advantages as best we can, and hope for good draft picks and no injuries!

GC is so far from a premiership it's not funny. Spending their cash on middle rung offloaded players and ablett was a huge mistake.

Agree that GWS should be a heavyweight and should win a flag with the team they have.

 

[Craigacat]

I have got a fair amount of faith in the majority of our youngsters moving forward and our current position on the ladder is (give or take) where we should finish the 2015 season. Having Duncan on the sidelines for such an extended period is a blow, especially when you consider his form of late. Duncan is becoming one of those players in the mold of a Selwood or a Bartel - That is, a player that can make others around them better players by their mere presence.

Trouble with that is most of these kids, Bews, Gregson, Lang, Thurlow, Caddy, Guthrie etc. are already more or less regular players, in two years time they'll be the back bone of the side rather then the supporting cast, and we'll have to find another group to replace Bartel, Enright, Stokes, Lonergan, Kelly, SJ, Rivers and Mackie, (Taylor will be thirty one by then as well) going to take a hell of a lot of wheeler dealing at the trade table to fill those spots.

I believe some of these blokes (and others such as Blicavs) have the potential to reach a high level in the game. However don't get me wrong, I know that premiership players don't just grow on trees either. Even those kids with natural ability still need to be nurtured to develop their potential. We are talking about veterans and mid-range players around the club to support their development and guide them. That's not even mentioning the coaching, player development, fitness and various other staff members that facilitate the learning environment.

Now, the good news is that as it currently stands in May 2015, we have quite a few of these pieces already in place at the club. This is the legacy of our premiership successes and we are still the envy of many clubs in this regard who continue to struggle attracting the best people for these key areas.

Our biggest danger moving forward is that our form slumps for an extended period to the point where the administration loses patience and feels forced to make sweeping changes. Often a club feels the need to make dramatic changes to start over and build success from the ground up. However, at this current point in time we are not a club in that position. So the challenge for the current regime is to keep our experienced players ticking over, whilst bringing through the next generation. A massive challenge to say the least! But I still think we can get it done.


If the OP is referring to 'bottoming out' in the sense of finishing 16th, 17th or 18th on the ladder, I reckon we will escape that for at least this season. But there are so many variables to consider when thinking about 2016, 2017 and beyond that it makes the mind boggle.

 

[Whit3y]

No they haven't contributed a stack. They've been solid role players but they haven't been the core of the team that they previously were.



And all those youngsters will be a couple of years older with 40-odd more games under their belts. They should be easily better players than now.

lets hope they dont go the way of taylor hunt with those extra 40 games

 

[cynical]

I must be alone in my thinking here because some of the current oldies are actually holding us back as we speak. If they do linger on in the senior team for the rest of the year (before announcing retirement), then this season has been a lost opportunity to preparing for 2016 & beyond.
I am thankful the MC went with Simpson over McIntosh early in the season. They could very well have gone with the better player in this scenario and they knew McIntosh would effectively be off the list come November.

Kolodjashnij, Thurlow, Bews should be able to notch up 55-60 games between them by the end of this year. With Kolodjashnij, I really do feel he is about ready to make his debut. This will see him remain in the team for a while. Who makes way is not important because realistically, the team will struggle to make finals, and at least two of our current defenders will announce their retirement come the off season. This year is irrelevant for the veterans. They had their last crack at it in 2013/2014 and just fell short. It's now about the future and what's in the best interests of our football club.

If we do happen to devoid those five or six inexperienced players much needed game time (a good run at it in the ALF for 2 months on end), and again go with the old seasoned heads, I think the coaching staff need to take a long, hard look at themselves, because if it is about 2016/2017, couple of em were obviously not on the same page and that's disconcerting.
Majority of those players have spent upwards of two years in the VFL already. It's time to throw them into the deep end instead of dropping them every second week for not performing to the standard of a 50-75 gamer.

I'd rather play the kids as well but we wont be better for a long while.

If all the oldies were retired at the end of the year we would be bottom 4 for a few years just cos when injuries come around the team would be stacked with 0-25 game players.

 

[Whit3y]

Bigger picture, we will need a lot to go right to be really challenging for premierships in the next decade, or even beyond.

not sure about that. teams can fall or rise alot quicker then that, who would have thought in 2013 we would win a premiership 4 years later, i guess alot did go right didnt it god bless

 

[YY_Cat]

Pessimist? Realists? Neither is my style.

 

[Moggy]

I think the interesting question is not "will we" bottom out (we certainly will), rather "how we" bottom out.
My thoughts are that you need talent, experience, coaching, a great team ethic and some luck with injuries in order to win flags.

Obviously a lot of these are linked, and you can't adjust one without affecting the others. Take talent, experience and team ethic...

The area I suspect we are lacking in, is top-end talent. Besides snaring class players through FA, we are talking about the draft.
Exposing the kids now helps us assess the talent we have, as well as building experience. The crucial benefit is that you also finish lower on the ladder and get access to more talent - if you nail the draft. So far so good.

The risk is you lose your team ethic and winning mentality, and end up a basket case like Melbourne circa 2013.
Our team ethic over the last 8 years has been the envy of the league. It wasn't always that way, so it is critical that we keep the right leaders and make sure they are fully motivated for the transition period. With guys like Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor we seem to be in good shape.

So, let's take the short-term pain, draft some great young talent and back our system to develop them as hungry, team-oriented senior players ready to fight for another flag or three.

 

[David the Cat]

The exact quote:

"The appointment of Chris is not just about 2011, it’s about 2015."

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/cats-announce-chris-scott-as-new-coach-20101018-16pq2.html

If you read any of the news around Scott's appointment, if anything, the flag that was "promised" was the 2011 one. Duly delivered.

CE…what the hell have you done!!! ….. you've pulled the rug from under the Scott haters with facts…..get your act together!

I had to laugh when I saw this thread…..the henny pennys were here quicker than Ursain Bolt….was the OP trolling?

It takes an Essendon supporter like Saint to deliver a considered approach to Geelong's situation right now. Well done mate!

Though Rivers won't be here for much more than the next 12 months if that.

 

[Seeds]

Next year will be worse than this year, in terms of ladder position, and while 2017 could go either way, I think it will probably be our low point.

Bigger picture, we will need a lot to go right to be really challenging for premierships in the next decade, or even beyond.

The group of veterans we are currently transitioning out of the team are a once in a lifetime bunch that netted us our first flags in 44 years.
The chances that the next group - even if we can stand them up while we still have Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor - will be able to emulate the departing veterans are 50/50 at best. More likely 20%.

There is also the GWS/GCS factor, when all those draft concessions come to fruition. It is reasonable to expect that they will claim 5 of the next ten flags between them.

So far, so depressing... but what natural advantages do we have?
Well, we have put together a really good culture in the last decade, and our track record in developing players is very good - barring injuries.
We have an excellent reputation when it comes to looking after players, which is a definite plus when it comes to free agents.
We have some promising kids.

We need to maximize the effect of those advantages as best we can, and hope for good draft picks and no injuries!

Why will we be worse. The injuries we have had this year are extensive. It can't keep happening. Also if we finish outside the top 6, a near certainty then our draw will be far far better. With a fit team and an even draw we are still a very good side. The draw is much more biased now then it used to be given there are only 6 teams that you play twice. It will decide the top 4 this year. Teams like GWS and West Coast might make it even though they aren't close to a top four side.

 

[Moggy]

Why will we be worse. The injuries we have had this year are extensive. It can't keep happening. Also if we finish outside the top 6, a near certainty then our draw will be far far better. With a fit team and an even draw we are still a very good side. The draw is much more biased now then it used to be given there are only 6 teams that you play twice. It will decide the top 4 this year. Teams like GWS and West Coast might make it even though they aren't close to a top four side.

True, the draw is a significant factor, but I believe that the effect of champion/veteran retirements will be larger for us.
Our middle tier have been sheltered, and will likely get exposed.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Talk of Geelong 'bottoming out' is nonsense. The only problem will be when Harry Taylor and Lonergan need replacing. If Kolo___, Rivers and another can do that job, then Geelong will be fine for another 5 years.

These days you can bring in a Free Agent midfielder to a top 8 team fairly easily. Even if not Dangerfield, there's always other interstaters looking to come closer to home.

Deliberately bottoming out by dropping all the senior guys next year (or this year) would do a whole lot of damage to the leadership and fabric of the club. Best let them move on naturally and let the young guys earn their spot as they progress.

Have a look at Richmond, Melbourne or Carlton to see what happens when guys get given games easily. Teams are successful when players are fighting for spots, which they're still doing at the cats, Hawks and Dockers.

Rivers is older than Taylor and will likely retire first, perhaps at the end of this year. Replacing the KPDs will be our biggest challenge and could be a really sore point if not handled well or if luck doesn't go our way. Currently, the only young player (not counting the perpetually-injured Delaney) who can fill one of those holes is Kolo. I think the best way to do it would have Rivers retire this year, and have Kolo take his spot next year, and either this year or next, try to attract a decent mature KPD to replace Lonergan. It's going to be hard to be competitive if we wind up with a couple of inexperienced 18/19-year-old kids playing the KPD roles. It's the area of the ground the club has most neglected in its 'transition'.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Why will we be worse. The injuries we have had this year are extensive. It can't keep happening. Also if we finish outside the top 6, a near certainty then our draw will be far far better. With a fit team and an even draw we are still a very good side. The draw is much more biased now then it used to be given there are only 6 teams that you play twice. It will decide the top 4 this year. Teams like GWS and West Coast might make it even though they aren't close to a top four side.

If you keep players who are injury prone/always injured on your list, you will always have injury problems.

 

[Seeds]

True, the draw is a significant factor, but I believe that the effect of champion/veteran retirements will be larger for us.
Our middle tier have been sheltered, and will likely get exposed.

Possibly, but we have basically been without Kelly, McIntosh, Mackie and Bartel anyway. We will only lose 3 players due to retirement at the end of this year anyway. When you add Hartman and atleast 2 of Cowan, Menzel, Vardy and Simpson then that will make 6 players gone. We aren't going to lose more than that so most of the older players will stay. With the exception of Enright, the older players aren't that old. They are 30-32, not 34-35 so they should still be fine.

 

[Seeds]

If you keep players who are injury prone/always injured on your list, you will always have injury problems.

Yes and I think we will get rid of a few at the end of this year opening up more spots and competition.

 

[Moggy]

Possibly, but we have basically been without Kelly, McIntosh, Mackie and Bartel anyway. We will only lose 3 players due to retirement at the end of this year anyway. When you add Hartman and atleast 2 of Cowan, Menzel, Vardy and Simpson then that will make 6 players gone. We aren't going to lose more than that so most of the older players will stay. With the exception of Enright, the older players aren't that old. They are 30-32, not 34-35 so they should still be fine.

Personally, I think the draw is way too much of a factor in deciding the comp.

In terms of our finishing positions in 16/17
I would rather suck up the pain of a really poor year - in terms of wins not lacklustre effort, etc - and get into the first 5 draft picks than fight valiantly with a good draw and end up 10th or so.

 

[Cattery]

No they haven't contributed a stack. They've been solid role players but they haven't been the core of the team that they previously were.

Find the dismissive attitude to the senior players contributions a bit perplexing I have to say, dread to think how our defence would hold up without Lonergan, Rivers and Enright just for starters.

And all those youngsters will be a couple of years older with 40-odd more games under their belts. They should be easily better players than now.

You named 8 players we need to replace. But 3 of them (Bartel, Kelly and Mackie) didn't play on the weekend so that's really only 5 to replace. Also Cockatoo, Cowan, Hawkins, Horlin-Smith, McCarthy, Menzel, Simpson, Smedts and Vardy didn't play on the weekend but they've all played AFL footy already. We'll get at least a couple of good players out of that lot so realistically we're looking at actually replacing maybe 2-3 players from the team that played on the weekend. It's really not that many compared to all the under 25s who should improve significantly in that time.

Not sure where to begin answering this, we are discussing the medium to long term structure of the side so who did or didn't play on the weekend is irrelevant.

The three players that missed at the weekend (Kelly, Mackie and Bartel) will all be straight back in as soon as they're available, and barring a dramatic drop in form will remain for the rest of the year and in some cases beyond, meaning that all eight will need to be replaced within (probably) the next two years.

The group of veterans we are currently transitioning out of the team are a once in a lifetime bunch that netted us our first flags in 44 years.
The chances that the next group - even if we can stand them up while we still have Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor - will be able to emulate the departing veterans are 50/50 at best. More likely 20%.

Hate to say it, but I have to agree 100% with all that.

I have got a fair amount of faith in the majority of our youngsters moving forward and our current position on the ladder is (give or take) where we should finish the 2015 season. Having Duncan on the sidelines for such an extended period is a blow, especially when you consider his form of late. Duncan is becoming one of those players in the mold of a Selwood or a Bartel - That is, a player that can make others around them better players by their mere presence.

I believe some of these blokes (and others such as Blicavs) have the potential to reach a high level in the game. However don't get me wrong, I know that premiership players don't just grow on trees either. Even those kids with natural ability still need to be nurtured to develop their potential. We are talking about veterans and mid-range players around the club to support their development and guide them. That's not even mentioning the coaching, player development, fitness and various other staff members that facilitate the learning environment.

Agree 100% with that as well, in a very agreeable mood tonight.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Why will we be worse. The injuries we have had this year are extensive. It can't keep happening. Also if we finish outside the top 6, a near certainty then our draw will be far far better. With a fit team and an even draw we are still a very good side. The draw is much more biased now then it used to be given there are only 6 teams that you play twice. It will decide the top 4 this year. Teams like GWS and West Coast might make it even though they aren't close to a top four side.

The Pies and West Coast have been judged to have been given the easiest draws, Seeds. The Pies only play one Top 6 side from last year twice- that is Geelong.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...n-cracks-of-2014/story-fni5f6yf-1227107594304

Oh, and we only play 5 teams twice, as there are 22 games in the season - 23 rounds including 1 bye.

 

[Teriyakicat]

If you keep players who are injury prone/always injured on your list, you will always have injury problems.

I think Seeds might have been talking about injuries to the players who are not injury prone, BB- e.g. Bartel, Kelly, Duncan.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Next year will be worse than this year, in terms of ladder position, and while 2017 could go either way, I think it will probably be our low point.

Bigger picture, we will need a lot to go right to be really challenging for premierships in the next decade, or even beyond.

The group of veterans we are currently transitioning out of the team are a once in a lifetime bunch that netted us our first flags in 44 years.
The chances that the next group - even if we can stand them up while we still have Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor - will be able to emulate the departing veterans are 50/50 at best. More likely 20%.

There is also the GWS/GCS factor, when all those draft concessions come to fruition. It is reasonable to expect that they will claim 5 of the next ten flags between them.

So far, so depressing... but what natural advantages do we have?
Well, we have put together a really good culture in the last decade, and our track record in developing players is very good - barring injuries.
We have an excellent reputation when it comes to looking after players, which is a definite plus when it comes to free agents.
We have some promising kids.

We need to maximize the effect of those advantages as best we can, and hope for good draft picks and no injuries!

I disagree with that - any team can bottom out - if they stuff up their draft picks - for a few years running

I think Geelong are pretty well placed - got the flags - the 2 new clubs have had all their picks - ( which seriously put the handbrake on those middle of the road clubs from improving while we were winning )

Now it comes down to list management - look at the Swans - McGlyn and Kennedy were basically unwanted at Hawthorn - their both bargins - Ted Richards was going no where at Essendon - how good a pick up has he been - Parker who is a blooody star - with pick 40 - they stole Franklin - but Geelong stole Hawkins with a 3rd round pick

Anything can happen at Geelong - and quickly - if a few drafts bring in talent

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Next year will be worse than this year, in terms of ladder position, and while 2017 could go either way, I think it will probably be our low point.

Bigger picture, we will need a lot to go right to be really challenging for premierships in the next decade, or even beyond.

The group of veterans we are currently transitioning out of the team are a once in a lifetime bunch that netted us our first flags in 44 years.
The chances that the next group - even if we can stand them up while we still have Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor - will be able to emulate the departing veterans are 50/50 at best. More likely 20%.

There is also the GWS/GCS factor, when all those draft concessions come to fruition. It is reasonable to expect that they will claim 5 of the next ten flags between them.

So far, so depressing... but what natural advantages do we have?
Well, we have put together a really good culture in the last decade, and our track record in developing players is very good - barring injuries.
We have an excellent reputation when it comes to looking after players, which is a definite plus when it comes to free agents.
We have some promising kids.

We need to maximize the effect of those advantages as best we can, and hope for good draft picks and no injuries!

A few points about this

1.You always need a lot to go right to win a premiership , no football expert 12 years ago thought our young players would turn out to be as good as they became.

2.They do not need to be as good as our previous generation to win a premiership , that was one of the greatest sides of all time.

3.Dont worry about GWS and GC , most people believed 12 years ago that Stkilda,westcoast, Fremantle and Melbourne all had better young players than us.

4.We comfortably had the measure of Collingwood and Richmond with the following players not playing
- Stokes
-Mackie
-Bartel
-Kelly

So based on the side we had for those 2 games we are most likely to get better next year.

Not directed at you but people on this board have got to put our situation in some context , we have demonstrated this year that without our over 30's we can match it with and beat those middle road sides.

 

[Moggy]

look at the Swans - McGlyn and Kennedy were basically unwanted at Hawthorn - their both bargins - Ted Richards was going no where at Essendon - how good a pick up has he been - Parker who is a blooody star - with pick 40 - they stole Franklin - but Geelong stole Hawkins with a 3rd round pick

I would call all that "a lot of things going right"

 

[Moggy]

A few points about this

1.You always need a lot to go right to win a premiership , no football expert 12 years ago thought our young players would turn out to be as good as they became.

So we agree

2.They do not need to be as good as our previous generation to win a premiership , that was one of the greatest sides of all time.

True.

3.Dont worry about GWS and GC , most people believed 12 years ago that Stkilda,westcoast, Fremantle and Melbourne all had better young players than us.

4.We comfortably had the measure of Collingwood and Richmond with the following players not playing
- Stokes
-Mackie
-Bartel
-Kelly

So based on the side we had for those 2 games we are most likely to get better next year.

Not directed at you but people on this board have got to put our situation in some context , we have demonstrated this year that without our over 30's we can match it with and beat those middle road sides.

I think the gap between Collingwood/Richmond and Hawthorn/Fremantle is massive.

Of course, we all want the same thing, but the context also includes a bunch of other clubs all trying to pull off the same trick.

 

[Catatonic Shock]

So we agree

True.

I think the gap between Collingwood/Richmond and Hawthorn/Fremantle is massive.

Of course, we all want the same thing, but the context also includes a bunch of other clubs all trying to pull off the same trick.[/QUOTE]

Problem for them/positive for us is most of those clubs have no idea what the trick is.
Geelong know how to win flags, we won 3 and each time had to figure out how.

It's no surprise when players from lesser clubs (melbourne for eg) are amazed at the difference between the 2.