Geelong's record in finals under Chris Scott

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Power Play

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10 wins, 15 losses at a win rate of 40%.

This is underwhelming, when compared to Geelong's record in the home and away under Chris Scott.

However, is this year different, and are Geelong the real deal? Every year around this time, we hear that Geelong have made changes in gameplan and personnel, and that things are different compared to recent years.

Regardless of how their finals campaign plays out, as a neutral, it'll be interesting to see how they go, and Patrick Dangerfield might finally get his flag. :)
 

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Deadly Assassin

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Geelong haven't often been the favourites in these games. Whereas in the home and away season they start 75% of games as favourite. That's why their h&a record is superior
They're red hot favourites to beat us next week. When is the last time they were this hot to win a final? Would have to be the qualifying final against Fremantle in 2013.
 

Deadly Assassin

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Against us in 2019..
Last year against GWS. Oops.
geelong finals odds 2012-2021.jpg
 

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Macca180

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Geelong and Chris Scott can rectify all this starting Saturday and all this choking stuff will be ancient history.

But if they choke again well it becomes folklore.
 

Seeds

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Geelong haven't often been the favourites in these games. Whereas in the home and away season they start 75% of games as favourite. That's why their h&a record is superior
Wrong. Geelong have been favourites in probably 75 percent of their finals over the past 10 years. Usually always the higher ranked side.
 

Deadly Assassin

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Wrong. Geelong have been favourites in probably 75 percent of their finals over the past 10 years. Usually always the higher ranked side.
They've started favourites in 11 out of 22 finals they've played in over the last decade as the betting odds posted above show. So 50%.
 

Power Play

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13 wins, 15 losses at a win rate of 46%.

Still pales in comparison to his home and away win percentage, even after winning the flag this year, which happens to be 73%.

Mark Thompson, who is also a duel premiership coach, has a home and away win percentage of 62%, and a finals win percentage of 58%.

Who would be rated as a better coach out of Thompson and Scott?
 

Catsace

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Not too many clubs would quibble about a coach who has won two flags in 12 seasons and missed the finals once in that time. It does seem a peculiarly Richmond and Hawthorn thing insofar that historically their sides win 60% or more of their finals. Geelong's is 45% historically. As a poster made comment before, if you are 3rd or 4th you may go L-W-L en route to a PF, whereas a 5th-6th side might simply go W-L....so 33% vs 50%, despite the former side finishing higher.

Geelong has only twice been in an Elimination final, and has lost both, and of the finals they've lost a few have been in a position of a handy lead, but have succumbed late in the game, Hawks PF 2013 and the Tigers PF '19 and GF '20.

But well happily take what we've had over this time, with a better than 7 in 10 chance of singing the team song after a game, and a side that's now on a 16-game winning streak to win a GF in a most emphatic way. And on Joel Selwood, people have said his 22 wins outnumber the history of St.Kilda's total finals wins, but Geelong in 110 seasons of footy had won 37 finals, a draw and had lost 54. Joel has been here to add about 60% to that win tally in the 16 years at the club. And four of Geelong's 10 premierships. No Cat will be anything but grateful for this magical 16 year period.
 

Mr Meow

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13 wins, 15 losses at a win rate of 46%.

Still pales in comparison to his home and away win percentage, even after winning the flag this year, which happens to be 73%.

Mark Thompson, who is also a duel premiership coach, has a home and away win percentage of 62%, and a finals win percentage of 58%.

Who would be rated as a better coach out of Thompson and Scott?
You can point to a number of top 2 finishes over the Scott era that did not result in GF appearances, but only in one of them did they not play an away game in week 1 (against Freo at KP, one they did infamously blow). And like everyone says, the 8 or 9 wins banked at KP every year keep Geelong thereabouts with a good (but not great) side.

I know Thompson's Cats faced the same scenario, but landed some Etihad tenants (Bulldogs, St Kilda, NM) and one weaker MCG tenant (Collingwood '07, '09) before they came good in '10. The other, Hawthorn '08, upset the Cats on GF day. Those Cats were also a better side than the 2012-2021 sides, although of course Bomber gets credit for that. We'll never know how the '07-'10 Cats would've gone against Hawthorn '12-'15 or Richmond '17-'20.

Thosw were two excellent dynasty sides in the way during Scott's time. Maybe Geelong should've made another GF or two and then probably fallen short against those sides. However in years like 2016 or 2018 there were missed opportunities or the the team simply weren't up to scratch.

Geelong almost lost another away final this time and then coasted in the two games with home state advantage. No opponents were incredible or serial winners. So it's also luck of the draw sometimes, even though I think this is easily the strongest Geelong side since at least '13, if not '11.

Sorry I know that's a lot of words for "I don't know" or "it's complicated".
 

Bunnings

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13 wins, 15 losses at a win rate of 46%.

Still pales in comparison to his home and away win percentage, even after winning the flag this year, which happens to be 73%.

Mark Thompson, who is also a duel premiership coach, has a home and away win percentage of 62%, and a finals win percentage of 58%.

Who would be rated as a better coach out of Thompson and Scott?
So you’d rather him have missed finals and not gotten double chances?

To say he’s coached poorly in finals actually takes away from very good sides like your own. Cats have won a quarter of the flags in the last 16, how many should have they won?
 

Gavin Excell

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I will say conversion of GF appearances to flags hasn't been Cats strong suit but the ledger is gradually being restored
Including 89 it's 10 GF appearances for 4 flags
From 2007 it's 6 GF appearances for 4

While I'm not Hawks and Tigers greatest fan I do respect their ability to convert. When they make the GF, they generally win
 

Bartel84

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13 wins, 15 losses at a win rate of 46%.

Still pales in comparison to his home and away win percentage, even after winning the flag this year, which happens to be 73%.

Mark Thompson, who is also a duel premiership coach, has a home and away win percentage of 62%, and a finals win percentage of 58%.

Who would be rated as a better coach out of Thompson and Scott?
Scott everyday of the week. Continually underrated. Thompson had a team full of champions. This Geelong is a champion team. Scott has evolved the team to win it this year pushed out every last ounce of improvement and managed players impressively.
 

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