Geelong's record in finals under Chris Scott

[Freomaniac]

No - cant agree with that - you are talking utter rubbish

I posted consistently during the lead up to all the finals - that i wanted Geel to play Syd - not Coll - and i was so glad that happened

There is what if moments in AFL football - Geel had Rich on toast in the 19PF - should have been 6 goals up at h/t - bar poor kicking - what would have been the reward - a certain Geel flag - getting GWS in the GF

And the same this year - that qual final - Coll led for what 95% - they win that - there would be a reasonable/good chance theyd be premiers - where as Freo are a million miles off it

Just like 2007 - that PF the Cats would have been desperately unlucky to lose - because they were in front most of the night - but if the Magpies had prevailed then it is a certain Coll flag

Some supporters can acknowledge that - others they are just so rapped up in their team they cant

Im delirious with joy because Geel have finally got what was proving a very elusive flag - however there is a very fine line between getting that flag and not - and the Magpies were a cigarette paper away from getting that flag this year

Yeah cats had the lead at half-time in that 2019 prelim final.

But like the 2020 grand final, Richmond kicked 5 goals in the 3rd quarter to get the lead.

2017 qualifying final between both sides was close until 3 quarter time.

Tigers lead 6.10.46 to 4.9.33 at 3 quarter time. Maybe if cats kicked 9.4.58 at 3 quarter time, the mindset would be different.

Richmond kicked 13.13.91 in the end.

 

[Seeds]

I will say conversion of GF appearances to flags hasn't been Cats strong suit but the ledger is gradually being restored
Including 89 it's 10 GF appearances for 4 flags
From 2007 it's 6 GF appearances for 4

While I'm not Hawks and Tigers greatest fan I do respect their ability to convert. When they make the GF, they generally win

Could that be partly to do with the fact they are melbourne teams and have played a lot of interstate teams in recent grand finals. Hawthorn have played 5 interstate teams in its past 6 grand finals.

richmond have played 2 in its past 3.

in fact in none of those 9 grand finals have either hawthorn or richmond played a fellow melbourne team. Not once.

 

[DV2000]

I’ll just leave fact this here:


Joel Selwood (16 year career) has WON more finals matches than each of the following clubs in their ENTIRE HISTORIES:

• Adelaide
• Brisbane
• Fremantle
• Port Adelaide
• Western Bulldogs
• Gold Coast
• GWS

We don’t just play finals. We WIN finals.

 

[Power Play]

Do you realise that only the top 8 teams each year play in finals? This means that on average, Geelong’s opponents in finals matches are significantly better than in home and away matches, and so it shouldn’t be surprising that our win percentage is lower in finals matches.

Why is it the great coaches have a finals win percentage close to or greater than their home and away win percentage, yet Chris Scott has a large gap between his home and away win percentage, and his finals win percentage?

Mick Malthouse: 57% home/away, 54% finals.
Mark Thompson: 62% home/away, 58% finals.
Alastair Clarkson: 59% home/away, 62% finals.
Damien Hardwick: 57% home/away, 63% finals.
Leigh Matthews: 58% home/away, 65% finals.
Malcolm Blight: 55% home/away, 65% finals.
Denis Pagan: 50% home/away, 64% finals.

You may not have excluded 2011 from Chris Scott's coaching cv, but many others on this site have.

The facts are that he took a team who had been in premiership contention for 4 years, and who were 10 goals down at half time in their last Preliminary Final before he took over, to remain perennial contenders for (at least) the next 12 seasons - 2 flags, 8 top 4 finishes, 11 finals series.

We haven't seen any other team in the modern era get anywhere near these consistently high levels of performance for anywhere near as long.

He's not just a 'good coach', he's a great coach, absolutely in the best handful of coaches we've seen since the turn of the century - comfortably in the same conversation as Roos, Malthouse and Hardwick. I'd only rate Matthews and Clarkson ahead of him, and Longmire slightly behind.

Interesting to know you rate Paul Roos ahead of Mark Thompson.

Also, I personally have Paul Roos on par with Mark Williams, even though for some reason, Roos is rated much higher than Williams in the media.

Then again, the media seem to rate Ken Hinkley, who is not only 2x AFLPA coach of the year, but is also highly rated by Port supporters.

 

[Fadge]

Why is it the great coaches have a finals win percentage close to or greater than their home and away win percentage, yet Chris Scott has a large gap between his home and away win percentage, and his finals win percentage?

Mick Malthouse: 57% home/away, 54% finals.
Mark Thompson: 62% home/away, 58% finals.
Alastair Clarkson: 59% home/away, 62% finals.
Damien Hardwick: 57% home/away, 63% finals.
Leigh Matthews: 58% home/away, 65% finals.
Malcolm Blight: 55% home/away, 65% finals.
Denis Pagan: 50% home/away, 64% finals.

A true picture of this can only be provided if we see how many seasons the respective coach took their teams to finals.

As another poster has already said, you protect your finals win percentage by not making the finals. Do you really rate a coach better because they coach their team to 12th and lose 0 finals, as opposed to coaching them to 4th and losing 2 finals?

Michael Voss's coaching record this season (0 wins, 0 losses in finals) blows Macrae's finals coaching record out of the water (1 win, 2 losses).

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Why is it the great coaches have a finals win percentage close to or greater than their home and away win percentage, yet Chris Scott has a large gap between his home and away win percentage, and his finals win percentage?

Mick Malthouse: 57% home/away, 54% finals.
Mark Thompson: 62% home/away, 58% finals.
Alastair Clarkson: 59% home/away, 62% finals.
Damien Hardwick: 57% home/away, 63% finals.
Leigh Matthews: 58% home/away, 65% finals.
Malcolm Blight: 55% home/away, 65% finals.
Denis Pagan: 50% home/away, 64% finals.

Because they cashed in better than Chris Scott (to date) when they were really good and when they were bad, they were really bad to help maintain a neutral finals record. It isn't rocket science.

Hardwick's a classic comparison. Three flags always trumps two flags and yet you could take the negative perspective of his record quite easily. He's coached for a season longer than Scott and just over half the finals matches. He's won exactly one final outside of 2017/19/20.

He's won three premierships, so he's a legendary coach, it goes without saying. He had a glorious run between 2017-20. For the other nine seasons (or almost 70% of his career) he's coached a side that's been making up the numbers.

 

[Freomaniac]

He was being facetious mate.

Fremantle went 1-1 in finals this season for a percentage of 50.
Collingwood went 1-2 for a percentage of 33.

Ergo by the logic of some of the forum users on the dirt-diet, fremantle must be a better side than Collingwood because of their higher finals win percentage

My personal Opinion.

I didnt care if Swans, Cats, Magpies or Brisbane had a better season than freo technically or statistically.

As for freo, 15 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 22 regular season games. I was in the dockers minority of Happy getting 5th rather than getting 4th and here is why....

Freo won 8 games at home and lost 4 at home. THose 4 sides that eat freo in WA : Saints, Magpies, swans and demons. Saints didnt make finals, the other 3 got top 4.

Had freo finished 4th, Cats would of smashed us at the MCG, then either Swans or Magpies would of beaten Freo in a semi final in Perth.

But because freo got 5th. We faced the dogs and beat them in an elim final in perth. I wasnt gutted with a semi final loss at the mcg. 19 dockers out of that 23 had their 1st finals win.

Freo for the last 6 seasons didnt make finals. Now they made finals and won a final since 2015.

 

[Freomaniac]

Sorry to say Fadge but Freo are better than Collingwood. Despite what we saw in the Semi Final.

I see it differently...

in 2022, collingwood is Batter than the dockers. Collingwood beat freo in perth in the regular season. they also finished higher than freo and beat freo again in the finals

 

[Romeoh1]

Yeah cats had the lead at half-time in that 2019 prelim final.

But like the 2020 grand final, Richmond kicked 5 goals in the 3rd quarter to get the lead.

2017 qualifying final between both sides was close until 3 quarter time.

Tigers lead 6.10.46 to 4.9.33 at 3 quarter time. Maybe if cats kicked 9.4.58 at 3 quarter time, the mindset would be different.

Richmond kicked 13.13.91 in the end.

They were better than us in 2019. And 2020. Simple.

 

[Romeoh1]

Am quite happy with his record in finals. It’s been lots of fun, by and large.

 

[Freomaniac]

They were better than us in 2019. And 2020. Simple.

on the day yes.... But overall, it looked very even.

Saying that, Had you guys won that 2019 prelim final vs the tigers, I would of expected cats to beat gws easily. But you would want that last 10 minutes back in that 2020 grand final.

Hell, go back to that 2016 prelim final vs the swans. Had the cats won that, I think the cats would of beaten the dogs by at least 30 points.

 

[Power Play]

A true picture of this can only be provided if we see how many seasons the respective coach took their teams to finals.

As another poster has already said, you protect your finals win percentage by not making the finals. Do you really rate a coach better because they coach their team to 12th and lose 0 finals, as opposed to coaching them to 4th and losing 2 finals?

Michael Voss's coaching record this season (0 wins, 0 losses in finals) blows Macrae's finals coaching record out of the water (1 win, 2 losses).

Why do the likes of Gerard Whateley harp on about Chris Scott's win percentage in the home and away, while also saying finals win percentage doesn't matter?

Chris Scott's home and away win percentage suggests Geelong should have won at least twice as many premierships during his tenure.

 

[Hoops]

Am quite happy with his record in finals. It’s been lots of fun, by and large.

Geelong has won more finals during the Scott era than any other side in that same period. We have done alright

 

[Hoops]

Why do the likes of Gerard Whateley harp on about Chris Scott's win percentage in the home and away, while also saying finals win percentage doesn't matter?

Chris Scott's home and away win percentage suggests Geelong should have won at least twice as many premierships during his tenure.

A lot of things goes against you in finals. if you are 3rd, 4th best team and you finish there you win 1 and lose 2 finals whereas the 5th, 6th best side wins 1 and loses just 1 33% v 50% just there. You also have to remember a lot of losses were to teams on their home ground.

 

[Romeoh1]

on the day yes.... But overall, it looked very even.

Saying that, Had you guys won that 2019 prelim final vs the tigers, I would of expected cats to beat gws easily. But you would want that last 10 minutes back in that 2020 grand final.

Hell, go back to that 2016 prelim final vs the swans. Had the cats won that, I think the cats would of beaten the dogs by at least 30 points.

Maybe- but the dogs deserved that flag and am happy they got one.
Martin stepped up in those finals and took the team with him and we couldn’t go up a gear like they could. We can now.

 

[Romeoh1]

Geelong has won more finals during the Scott era than any other side in that same period. We have done alright

Agreed- better than all right and I’m not greedy!

 

[Seeds]

Geelong has won more finals during the Scott era than any other side in that same period. We have done alright

But we have also lost about 2 times as many as the next side.

 

[kickazz]

I think the record is fine, probably only missing a couple more underdog victories.

 

[Seeds]

A lot of things goes against you in finals. if you are 3rd, 4th best team and you finish there you win 1 and lose 2 finals whereas the 5th, 6th best side wins 1 and loses just 1 33% v 50% just there. You also have to remember a lot of losses were to teams on their home ground.

Yes but the fifth-8th team often lose 1 and win 0. Whereas the 3rd to 4th win 1 and lose 2. the latter is better for your win loss record.

plus geelong have been top 2 far more often then 3-4.

geelong finished top 2 in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2022.

only made the gf twice.

 

[Saint]

Where did I say he's coached poorly in finals? I merely quoted his win loss record, along with his finals win percentage and pointed out the fact it sits below 50%.

Gerard Whateley harps on about Scott's home and away win percentage, but he's very quiet when it comes to his finals win percentage.

Where have I excluded Chris Scott's 2011 finals series from his finals record? I'm on record as acknowledging the fact Chris Scott is a good coach by the way, it's just that Gerard Whateley tends to overrate him.

They both finished as preliminary finalists, so at the end of the day, their seasons were on a par with one another.

Finals win % is a nonsense stat, that's why. You can win an Elimination final, then the Semi and lose the Prelim every year and your finals record will be 66% and you'll have never even made the GF.

A season win/loss record is from a sample of over 20, a finals is from 0-4, usually at the lower end.

Apart from Hawthorn and Richmond, there isn't a team in the AFL which wouldn't take Geelong's finals win/loss record over the last 11 years.

 

[Seeds]

Finals win % is a nonsense stat, that's why. You can win an Elimination final, then the Semi and lose the Prelim every year and your finals record will be 66% and you'll have never even made the GF.

A season win/loss record is from a sample of over 20, a finals is from 0-4, usually at the lower end.

Apart from Hawthorn and Richmond, there isn't a team in the AFL which wouldn't take Geelong's finals win/loss record over the last 11 years.

thats two knockout finals wins every year. I think that deserves a 66 percent win to games rating.

to win a flag you need a minimum 75 percent win to game rating and most flag sides will have 100 percent

 

[Saint]

thats two knockout finals wins every year. I think that deserves a 66 percent win to games rating.

to win a flag you need a minimum 75 percent win to game rating and most flag sides will have 100 percent

So what you're saying is that it's nearly impossible for Geelong to maintain their normal season 70%+ win margin unless they win the flag practically every year?

Believe me, as an Essendon supporter, I'd give a fair bit just to watch us lose a final every few years. I'd be happy with a 10% finals win rate for the last 11 years. (it would have meant we've played 10 finals and only won one).

 

[Fadge]

So what you're saying is that it's nearly impossible for Geelong to maintain their normal season 70%+ win margin unless they win the flag practically every year?

Believe me, as an Essendon supporter, I'd give a fair bit just to watch us lose a final every few years. I'd be happy with a 10% finals win rate for the last 11 years. (it would have meant we've played 10 finals and only won one).

You learn something new every day.

What I've learnt today is that scenario 1 is much better than scenario 2.

Scenario 1 - Aim to regularly finish 5th to 8th, with a winning percentage in the mid 50's to low 60's, then win one and occasionally two finals so as your finals winning percentage is at or around your home and away winning percentage. Sometimes even slightly higher. If you don't think you can contend for the premiership, completely miss out on finals all together, so as not to detrimentally impact your finals winning percentage.

Scenario 2 - Regularly finish Top 4 with a winning percentage between 65% and 80%. You'll occasionally lose more finals than you win, but you'll occasionally win a premiership. However, your finals winning percentage will be considerably lower than your home and away wining percentage by virtue of ONLY playing the best few sides in the competition in the Finals. That is BAD and means you're a poor coach.

 

[Saint]

You learn something new every day.

What I've learnt today is that scenario 1 is much better than scenario 2.

Scenario 1 - Aim to regularly finish 5th to 8th, with a winning percentage in the mid 50's to low 60's, then win one and occasionally two finals so as your finals winning percentage is at or around your home and away winning percentage. Sometimes even slightly higher. If you don't think you can contend for the premiership, completely miss out on finals all together, so as not to detrimentally impact your finals winning percentage.

Scenario 2 - Regularly finish Top 4 with a winning percentage between 65% and 80%. You'll occasionally lose more finals than you win, but you'll occasionally win a premiership. However, your finals winning percentage will be considerably lower than your home and away wining percentage by virtue of ONLY playing the best few sides in the competition in the Finals. That is BAD and means you're a poor coach.

The only acceptable coaching performance is to be as good against top 8 teams as you are against bottom 10 teams. Try losing more to the bottom 10 and you wouldn't have this problem.

 

[Wojcinski]

Yes but the fifth-8th team often lose 1 and win 0. Whereas the 3rd to 4th win 1 and lose 2. the latter is better for your win loss record.

plus geelong have been top 2 far more often then 3-4.

geelong finished top 2 in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2022.

only made the gf twice.

Finished 4th in 2020