No Opposition Supporters General AFL Discussion #11 - Carlton Posters ONLY!

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dangerousdane

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What do you not understand?

'Last year, Citroen sold just 735 cars in Australia, a 23.8 per cent drop over the previous year. Its best-selling vehicle locally was the Berlingo light van, which accounted for 266 units'

To put it in perspective ... 147,602 Toyota's were sold ....

So I ask you ... are Citroen even a thing???

Edit: To extrapolate further, there have been 1,065,583 cars sold up until the end of November.

So Citroen hold a 0.06% market share in Aus ..... pretty relevant huh?
Sounds like a collectors item to me
 

passmark

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Daicos doesn't strike me as your grey nomad type.
You'd think they'd choose a hayseed like T Daniher or someone.
 

La Dispute

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Again you are taking what I have said and twisting it.

I said that these players were AA and Essendon did nothing.

So how does that make the team better this year?
We’re talking directly about the quality of the players, to which AA’s are one metric.

Hurley was AA last year, Merrett and Daniher were AA in 2017 when Essendon made the finals and Shiel was AA at GWS.

We’re talking at cross-purposes asking how that relates but it indicates they’ve got the top-order quality plus natural improvement in a number of young players, and they’ve just brought in an elite mid in Shiel.

Making finals would be an absolute minimum.
 

BJuddy

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We’re talking directly about the quality of the players, to which AA’s are one metric.

Hurley was AA last year, Merrett and Daniher were AA in 2017 when Essendon made the finals and Shiel was AA at GWS.

We’re talking at cross-purposes asking how that relates but it indicates they’ve got the top-order quality plus natural improvement in a number of young players, and they’ve just brought in an elite mid in Shiel.

Making finals would be an absolute minimum.
The original thing I was commenting on was that they would not rapidly improve and somehow be relevant again.

The quality of a few player does not cover the lack of talent in other.

See Carlton just a few years ago. Murphy, Gibbs, Kruez, Tuohy and a few others could not compensate for the lack of talent we had everywhere.

This has been rectified by tear down and rebuild and a massive of influx in young talent.

This has not happened at Essendon. they have bought in a few players and the drafted players from the last couple of years have not come on like expected, except Mcgrath and potentially Francis (maybe). I am no expert on Essendon but I don't see it.

They are as soft as custard and twice as yellow. They don't play as a team and I for one can't wait to watch them to crash and burn again.
 

La Dispute

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The original thing I was commenting on was that they would not rapidly improve and somehow be relevant again.

The quality of a few player does not cover the lack of talent in other.

See Carlton just a few years ago. Murphy, Gibbs, Kruez, Tuohy and a few others could not compensate for the lack of talent we had everywhere.

This has been rectified by tear down and rebuild and a massive of influx in young talent.

This has not happened at Essendon. they have bought in a few players and the drafted players from the last couple of years have not come on like expected, except Mcgrath and potentially Francis (maybe). I am no expert on Essendon but I don't see it.

They are as soft as custard and twice as yellow. They don't play as a team and I for one can't wait to watch them to crash and burn again.
I can’t see anything cogent in what you’re saying, and see it as fundamentally false. Did West Coast require a wholesale rebuild? Did Collingwood? Sydney? Did Adelaide’s Grand Final team compromise of top draft picks?

The draft is only the very beginning, and in our case was a necessity due to our lack of top-end talent and lopsided list profile. It’s not the same for every team, and it doesn’t have to be the case for Essendon.

Carlton FC is not yet a case study in building a successful list, and we’re still years away from knowing the outcome of pulling apart the squad.

McGrath won the Rising Star and had a solid second year. Parish is a good player and Francis is starting to show how good he could become. Their improvement will coincide with Essebdon’s rise up the ladder, and they have still only completed their 2nd and 3rd years.

I’d be very surprised if they didn’t make the 8 next year.
 

BJuddy

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I can’t see anything cogent in what you’re saying, and see it as fundamentally false. Did West Coast require a wholesale rebuild? Did Collingwood? Sydney? Did Adelaide’s Grand Final team compromise of top draft picks?

The draft is only the very beginning, and in our case was a necessity due to our lack of top-end talent and lopsided list profile. It’s not the same for every team, and it doesn’t have to be the case for Essendon.

Carlton FC is not yet a case study in building a successful list, and we’re still years away from knowing the outcome of pulling apart the squad.

McGrath won the Rising Star and had a solid second year. Parish is a good player and Francis is starting to show how good he could become. Their improvement will coincide with Essebdon’s rise up the ladder, and they have still only completed their 2nd and 3rd years.

I’d be very surprised if they didn’t make the 8 next year.
I'd go as far to say that I would be surprised if we didn't make the 8 next year.

My point is they do not have the top end talent. It's what i have said all along and I have not changed. West Coast, Collingwood, and Espcially Sydney played as a team. Dopers do not.
 

Jabba73

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Not sure you can put too much faith in the AA and RS selection panels to provide a true guide of who is elite in the AFL, both are made up of members who usually don’t even try to hide their bias when commentating or discussing football during the year. To assume they can be objective when deciding who wins what awards is a little generous.
 
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I agree with La Dispute on this one regarding the *.

But would love to see them fail again this year.

Still believe our list is building something greater than theirs though. We just have to be patient again. Our list is so inexperienced again next year even after our new acquisitions.

12th to 15th and 7-10 wins I would be content with for us. The * should be aiming for around 4th to 6th spot. Here's hoping they balls it up again.
 

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ParapMarkets

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I don't think we need him.

Just take a step back and have a proper look at other clubs and their list profiles. How about Essendon prior to the Shiel trade.

Now lets take a closer look at their midfield.

Tier 1 Midfielders: Heppell and Merrett
Tier 2 Midfielders: Zaharakis, McGrath and Smith
Tier 3 Midfielders: Parish and Myers
Tier 4 Midfielders: Guelfi and maybe a few other part timers such as langford etc.

Essendon don't exactly run deep through the midfield and in all honesty, I reckon my ratings for a couple of the tier 2 midfielders are on the generous side.

If Essendon are at the limit of their cap with that midfield, we need to be careful how we manage our cap space in the coming years with the likes of Walsh, Stocker, Dow, O'brien, Fisher, SPS, Setterfield, Kennedy, Cripps + future first round selections coming through the door.

A lot of these guys are on base/average salaries at the moment and that will change very quickly. We need to plan carefully for the future.

Yes, I've heard the argument for frontloading contracts, but that doesn't guarantee we won't have cap issues in 3 years time when Coniglio is still on an 800k+ wage.

I'm not saying I don't want Coniglio, I'm just saying I'd prefer to retain our existing group.
He’ll be on a $800K+ wage because that’s what he is worth, you may not have noticed but the salary cap is a lot higher than it was 5 years ago. He will get $800K+ regardless of where he goes. If some of our young players start playing at his level, they will be demanding $800K+ as well.

We want as many players playing at a level of $800K+ as possible, regardless of how we recruit them (in fact, a front loaded free agent where we have ample cash in the early years is surely the best way rather than a bottom 3 finish). Getting a quality player like Coniglio would give the entire list a boost, you can never underestimate what confidence this type of acquisition could provide to the list. Once our confidence rises, the sky is the limit. We have hit the draft hard, but for the next year or two it will be about trying to rise up the ladder by trying to recruit quality experience.

If we develop our players and end up losing players to salary cap because our list is stacked then that is awesome, it means we are coming of age and a legitimate long term premiership threat. We would then continually be able to re-generate our youth with opportunities for high quality with the picks we get from the players we lose. SOS needs to go hard at these type of players, sure I highly doubt we could get him but we must try.
 

La Dispute

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Not sure you can put too much faith in the AA and RS selection panels to provide a true guide of who is elite in the AFL, both are made up of members who usually don’t even try to hide their bias when commentating or discussing football during the year. To assume they can be objective when deciding who wins what awards is a little generous.
So what kind of measures can we use? CD, which is just as flimsy?

How much credence you put into the squad is entirely up to you, but it provides a reasonable guide to how players rated. Just as a test see how many defenders are ahead of Hurley. Say just Rance and McGovern? That puts him in the top bracket. How many key forwards are better than Daniher at his best? Franklin, Kennedy, Lynch, possibly Riewoldt, and then?... Again, he’s clearly in the best half dozen.

The AFLPA team of the year is another good way of determining which players are rated, and there are always some decent surprises - decent players who often miss out on plaudits.

By and large though I just don’t buy the ‘Shiel/Merrett/Daniher/Hurley’ aren’t elite performers. Merrett cops the same rubbish Murphy used to, for basically just being an outside player. But how many outside mids are better than him? More than likely just Gaff and Sidebottom. Possibly Jack Macrae if you view him as an outside mid, but he’s more likely a hybrid these days. Devon Smith is another who is arguably elite as a forward flanker.

I’m happy for players to be called out when they are legitimately overated, but these Essendon players are stars.

The thing with Essendon is they’re still going through the processes of replenishing their list after the supplements sandal, which involved a bunch of very good players leaving (Hibberd, Ryder, Carlisle et al). This left a few gaps in their list and impacted their depth overall. They then had to bring a stack of makeshift players in on the fly and try to get something cohesive developing, which they part-way managed to do in 2017.

I still have some reservations but they’ve got a decent squad together, they’re very well balanced overall and have the kind of gameplan that kills teams once it’s rolling. They just need to get it rolling more often, and for longer periods in games.

If I was an Essendon supporter I’d be very optimistic.
 
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HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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Nothing about what you’ve said is substantial.

You’ve said they lack class everywhere, which is the opposite side of the same coin. Every team has classy players and workers, you can’t have a 22 full of X-factor players, which Essendon actually have in abundance. They need more toilers.

So they’re just ‘comparably old’, which is flimsy at best. They’ve got very few players (if any) over 30 in their best 22. They’re just about at the prime age. Being especially young doesn’t make a team good. Their age profile reflects the upward trajectory they were on before the supplements scandal, when they had a good spread of developing talent. This is effectively their second push after spending a few years resetting (although not by choice).

You can not rate their players all you want, but Daniher is an All-Australian and Hurley has 2 AA’s. Regardless how you weight these attributions, they are clearly quality players for their position. Getting Daniher fit is their main concern at the moment.

Again, taking one game and trying to use it as illustrative is always reductive and I’ll-advised. They managed to beat all of West Coast, Geelong, GWS and Sydney last year. Week-to-week consistency is a far better explanation for their lapses, which were mostly early on in the season.
I think I read somewhere after round 8 they were the second best performed side in the AFL. They will add two AA’s to that side. They lose Goddard but as you said with there age profile they don’t have any other players who should go backwards.
They have players under 22 who were taken 1,5 and 5 in the draft. They have shown as much as the majority of ours and we predict every top end kid we have like that to become future A graders so they probably have the same belief in theirs and should get a lot of improvement from them and even McKenna who I love.

I don’t really rate them that highly but I do rate them more highly than I did Richmond 2017 or Collingwood and WC last year.
 

Gethelred

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So what kind of measures can we use? CD, which is just as flimsy?

How much credence you put into the squad is entirely up to you, but it provides a reasonable guide to how players rated. Just as a test see how many defenders are ahead of Hurley. Say just Rance and McGovern? That puts him in the top bracket. How many key forwards are better than Daniher at his best? Franklin, Kennedy, Lynch, possibly Riewoldt, and then?... Again, he’s clearly in the best half dozen.

The AFLPA team of the year is another good way of determining which players are rated, and there are always some decent surprises - decent players who often miss out on plaudits.

By and large though I just don’t buy the ‘Shiel/Merrett/Daniher/Hurley’ aren’t elite performers. Merrett cops the same rubbish Murphy used to, for basically just being an outside player. But how many outside mids are better than him? More than likely just Gaff and Sidebottom. Possibly Jack Macrae if you view him as an outside mid, but he’s more likely a hybrid these days. Devon Smith is another who is arguably elite as a forward flanker.

I’m happy for players to be called out when they are legitimately overated, but these Essendon players are stars.

The thing with Essendon is they’re still going through the processes of replenishing their list after the supplements sandal, which involved a bunch of very good players leaving (Hibberd, Ryder, Carlisle et al). This left a few gaps in their list and impacted their depth overall. They then had to bring a stack of makeshift players in on the fly and try to get something cohesive developing, which they part-way managed to do in 2017.

I still have some reservations but they’ve got a decent squad together, they’re very well balanced overall and have the kind of gameplan that kills teams once it’s rolling. They just need to get it rolling more often, and for longer periods in games.

If I was an Essendon supporter I’d be very optimistic.
By the other side of the coin...

Even at their best last year, Essendon still allowed sides to take the ball from one end to the other without any chasing/tackling pressure, and are as profoundly reliant on Smith for tackling as we are Cripps for clearances. A good outside team, with enough grunt to deny them the ball inside (West Coast, Adelaide provided they play well) could cut them wide up kicking with precision into forward 50; a side that employs Richmond's kamikaze attack on the ball carrier and quick ball movement through the middle of the ground could cause their light on for hard/contested ball midfield to cough it up repeatedly under their tackling pressure, and if they avoid Smith the ball's in their forward line before Essendon even attempt to stop it via Hurley just beating whoever's on him.

They look good when they're on, but Worsfold's under similar direction to Fagan: keep the brand pretty, the fans hopeful, and bring back anyone who lost interest due to the supplements saga. It would take a strategic innovation akin to Clarko's cluster to compensate for Essendon's defensive inadequacies to make them a genuine flag threat, and I don't think Worsfold's that coach.
 

La Dispute

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By the other side of the coin...

Even at their best last year, Essendon still allowed sides to take the ball from one end to the other without any chasing/tackling pressure, and are as profoundly reliant on Smith for tackling as we are Cripps for clearances. A good outside team, with enough grunt to deny them the ball inside (West Coast, Adelaide provided they play well) could cut them wide up kicking with precision into forward 50; a side that employs Richmond's kamikaze attack on the ball carrier and quick ball movement through the middle of the ground could cause their light on for hard/contested ball midfield to cough it up repeatedly under their tackling pressure, and if they avoid Smith the ball's in their forward line before Essendon even attempt to stop it via Hurley just beating whoever's on him.

They look good when they're on, but Worsfold's under similar direction to Fagan: keep the brand pretty, the fans hopeful, and bring back anyone who lost interest due to the supplements saga. It would take a strategic innovation akin to Clarko's cluster to compensate for Essendon's defensive inadequacies to make them a genuine flag threat, and I don't think Worsfold's that coach.
So basically they’re a poor mans Collingwood, but with more of an outside veneer. That’s always up to be changed.

I completely agree with your assessment of they way they adapted their gameplan in 2017. They had nothing to lose after a torrid 2016, played with freedom, and used the corridor so often it was almost to their detriment at times. Then naturally a bit of pressure came after a promising H&A run, Daniher went down and they were already too far behind the 8-ball last year to get a good run at it.

I don’t think they have to innovate in the way you’re referring to, but they need to reinvent the way they defend in the midfield, otherwise set up so they can lock down on their opponents as they exit the stoppage - similar to Hawthorn’s strategy circa their three peat. They’ve got the outside run to then kill their opponents on the turnover where they’ve got a slew of quick half-forwards.

It’s always easy to see where a teams weaknesses lie, but if they play to their own gameplan, and genuinely back themselves to execute they’ll become a tough team to stop. I think we’ve only just seen the start of a good run.
 

Gethelred

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So basically they’re a poor mans Collingwood, but with more of an outside veneer. That’s always up to be changed.

I completely agree with your assessment of they way they adapted their gameplan in 2017. They had nothing to lose after a torrid 2016, played with freedom, and used the corridor so often it was almost to their detriment at times. Then naturally a bit of pressure came after a promising H&A run, Daniher went down and they were already too far behind the 8-ball last year to get a good run at it.

I don’t think they have to innovate in the way you’re referring to, but they need to reinvent the way they defend in the midfield, otherwise set up so they can lock down on their opponents as they exit the stoppage - similar to Hawthorn’s strategy circa their three peat. They’ve got the outside run to then kill their opponents on the turnover where they’ve got a slew of quick half-forwards.

It’s always easy to see where a teams weaknesses lie, but if they play to their own gameplan, and genuinely back themselves to execute they’ll become a tough team to stop. I think we’ve only just seen the start of a good run.
It's more that I think they're very vulnerable to being opened up by a side capable of scoring heavily, and that they're too deficient in two areas - namely, getting contested ball outside of a few players, and laying tackles outside of Smith - that, should a side target these areas and make the game about them (ie, a stoppage heavy game in which the team capable of winning the stoppage cleanly breaks the game open) they're completely sunk. The form we beat them into last year was stupendous, but was also a huge glaring sign for me that they're only mentally tough when their pride's been stung. If they get a roll on early, watch it go to their heads and they'll lose that imperious touch, that stellar form.

They're also veeery vulnerable to injuries to key players, Hurley, Hooker and Smith the most important. Through Brown they covered Daniher's absence for most of last season - thought he performed admirably for someone of limited ability - but they need Smith almost more than they need Hurley. He's the beast that transforms their midfield from being incredibly weak defensively to average.

And I'd have thought Collingwood's contested ball setup was thoroughly superior, as was their tackling pressure, to Essendon's best footy. Apples and oranges almost.
 

La Dispute

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It's more that I think they're very vulnerable to being opened up by a side capable of scoring heavily, and that they're too deficient in two areas - namely, getting contested ball outside of a few players, and laying tackles outside of Smith - that, should a side target these areas and make the game about them (ie, a stoppage heavy game in which the team capable of winning the stoppage cleanly breaks the game open) they're completely sunk. The form we beat them into last year was stupendous, but was also a huge glaring sign for me that they're only mentally tough when their pride's been stung. If they get a roll on early, watch it go to their heads and they'll lose that imperious touch, that stellar form.

They're also veeery vulnerable to injuries to key players, Hurley, Hooker and Smith the most important. Through Brown they covered Daniher's absence for most of last season - thought he performed admirably for someone of limited ability - but they need Smith almost more than they need Hurley. He's the beast that transforms their midfield from being incredibly weak defensively to average.

And I'd have thought Collingwood's contested ball setup was thoroughly superior, as was their tackling pressure, to Essendon's best footy. Apples and oranges almost.
Collingwood made a Grand final on the back of a weak defence, and a midfield that went helter skelter when they had the ball - this is the comparison I’m drawing. The difference is Collingwood has a far deeper midfield with far better contested ball winners. Essendon, if they can improve their defensive run (or as I’ve mentioned, concede in the midfield but alter their setups) will find the kind of space Collingwood did last year. They’ve just added another premium midfielder to further enhance that blistering run, and who suits their gameplan to a tee.

Any team is liable to be opened up if the effort isn’t there, and I’m not convinced it’s a structural thing, but moreover Essendon are still going through an adjustment period following 2016 and working out exactly the kind of game style they want to play. They one of the most efficient teams when on a fast break, which says they’ve at least got the scoring capacity, but naturally they’ll need to tinker with their setups to not become completely redundant on the counter.

Any team is vulnerable to injuries to key players. West Coast seem to be the exception to the rule, but in Essendon’s case, they play a game style that insists upon having their playmakers out there. A lot hinges on Daniher’s fitness in this regard.

Overall I can’t see their weaknesses being a serious Achilles heel. We’re past Hawthorn’s perfect footy era, and into teams backing their systems and creating game plans that cover their weaknesses in a big way: Richmond and Collingwood ascending has shown this. I see Essendon following suit, if they can develop some consistency, further bed down their best 22 and really maximise their gameplan.
 

La Dispute

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Easy to put emphasis on the Carlton game too, and I think it’s got more to do with our recent form against them (in spite of being a poor team) than the Bombers underestimating us and paying reactionary footy.

We just seem to respond well to playing them, and more often than not our structures hold up against them.
 

Gethelred

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Collingwood made a Grand final on the back of a weak defence, and a midfield that went helter skelter when they had the ball - this is the comparison I’m drawing. The difference is Collingwood has a far deeper midfield with far better contested ball winners. Essendon, if they can improve their defensive run (or as I’ve mentioned, concede in the midfield but alter their setups) will find the kind of space Collingwood did last year. They’ve just added another premium midfielder to further enhance that blistering run, and who suits their gameplan to a tee.

Any team is liable to be opened up if the effort isn’t there, and I’m not convinced it’s a structural thing, but moreover Essendon are still going through an adjustment period following 2016 and working out exactly the kind of game style they want to play. They one of the most efficient teams when on a fast break, which says they’ve at least got the scoring capacity, but naturally they’ll need to tinker with their setups to not become completely redundant on the counter.

Any team is vulnerable to injuries to key players. West Coast seem to be the exception to the rule, but in Essendon’s case, they play a game style that insists upon having their playmakers out there. A lot hinges on Daniher’s fitness in this regard.

Overall I can’t see their weaknesses being a serious Achilles heel. We’re past Hawthorn’s perfect footy era, and into teams backing their systems and creating game plans that cover their weaknesses in a big way: Richmond and Collingwood ascending has shown this. I see Essendon following suit, if they can develop some consistency, further bed down their best 22 and really maximise their gameplan.
That's fair enough. I still don't agree though.

Every modern premier has been at least better than average for tackle numbers. It's a key indicator, it's also a huge contributor to Richmond's success on the G; you tackle to bring players to ground, over and over, to outnumber your opposition who cannot chase you when they're on their arse. On the MCG, you win those contests you can win clear, and you cannot shut down space like you can on a narrower ground like Etihad; you cannot simply sit your Hookers or your Hurleys - or your ruckman - down the line or in the corridor, setting a zone behind the ball, there's too much ground to cover.

Essendon need to find a way to fulfill that need IMO, before I can take them more seriously than I took Richmond in 2013, who made finals off a soft draw and were always going to lose to us.
 

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That's fair enough. I still don't agree though.

Every modern premier has been at least better than average for tackle numbers. It's a key indicator, it's also a huge contributor to Richmond's success on the G; you tackle to bring players to ground, over and over, to outnumber your opposition who cannot chase you when they're on their arse. On the MCG, you win those contests you can win clear, and you cannot shut down space like you can on a narrower ground like Etihad; you cannot simply sit your Hookers or your Hurleys - or your ruckman - down the line or in the corridor, setting a zone behind the ball, there's too much ground to cover.

Essendon need to find a way to fulfill that need IMO, before I can take them more seriously than I took Richmond in 2013, who made finals off a soft draw and were always going to lose to us.
You had me at Hookers ….
 
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