General BETTING Discussion

Dylsbo

Rookie
Sep 3, 2015
43
43
AFL Club
Adelaide
I like to follow heavily one-sided soccer games because I think there's decent value in the ridiculous handicap markets. Lately I've been paying attention to Lurup Hamburg, a team sitting bottom in the German Oberliga Hamburg. Their form, particularly in away games, is among the worst of any team I've ever come across. They've managed 1 point from 18 games so far this season with a scoring record of 6:113 in 18 games (1:71 in 10 away games).

Tomorrow morning (5:00AM, 27th) they play away against Victoria Hamburg, who are 4th in the league. The only market available for the match is 6.0 AH, and I think backing Victoria to cover this looks like good value. Lurup are coming off a 13-0 defeat last weekend and have lost to teams in the top 4 by an average of 9.8 goals.

Obviously a 6 goal handicap has the potential to be a volatile bet but once the goals start coming from the top teams they really pile up. As well as this, Lurup have failed to cover the handicap line in almost every game this season. Victoria won the reverse fixture earlier in the season 7-0. Playing at home, a double digit win for them is entirely possible.
 
Last edited:

Oraaaaazio

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2014
1,712
2,587
AFL Club
Essendon
I like to follow heavily one-sided soccer games because I think there's decent value in the ridiculous handicap markets. Lately I've been paying attention to Lurup Hamburg, a team sitting bottom in the German Oberliga Hamburg. Their form, particularly in away games, is among the worst of any team I've ever come across. They've managed 1 point from 18 games so far this season with a scoring record of 6:113 in 18 games (1:71 in 10 away games).

Tomorrow morning (5:00AM, 27th) they play away against Victoria Hamburg, who are 4th in the league. The only market available for the match is 6.0 AH, and I think backing Victoria to cover this looks like good value. Lurup are coming off a 13-0 defeat last weekend and have lost to teams in the top 4 by an average of 9.8 goals.

Obviously a 6 goal handicap has the potential to be a volatile bet but once the goals start coming from the top teams they really pile up. As well as this, Lurup have failed to cover the handicap line in almost every game this season. Victoria won the reverse fixture earlier in the season 7-0. Playing at home, a double digit win for them is entirely possible.
9-0, wonder if Lurup want to give me a game? what sort of money are you able to get down on this league and who offers it? I assume bet365
 

rideclutch

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 25, 2011
9,753
9,700
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Formula 1, PGA Tour
Tomorrow morning (5:00AM, 27th) they play away against Victoria Hamburg, who are 4th in the league. The only market available for the match is 6.0 AH, and I think backing Victoria to cover this looks like good value. Lurup are coming off a 13-0 defeat last weekend and have lost to teams in the top 4 by an average of 9.8 goals.

Obviously a 6 goal handicap has the potential to be a volatile bet but once the goals start coming from the top teams they really pile up. As well as this, Lurup have failed to cover the handicap line in almost every game this season. Victoria won the reverse fixture earlier in the season 7-0. Playing at home, a double digit win for them is entirely possible.
Is there potential for a Hawthorn vs early GWS type situation where the top team rest players and bank the win, or is winning by like 9 goals more beneficial?
 

Dylsbo

Rookie
Sep 3, 2015
43
43
AFL Club
Adelaide
Is there potential for a Hawthorn vs early GWS type situation where the top team rest players and bank the win, or is winning by like 9 goals more beneficial?
I think teams will generally field their regular players in games like these. I'm sure the strikers love it, and racking up a massive score would be great for team confidence. Sometimes teams basically stop playing after they are 3-0 or 4-0 up though, so I generally look through a team's previous results to see if they're the type that will settle for 4-0 or go for 15-0. A lot of the time, the difference in quality is so big that even if players are taken off early and the game slows down, there will still be a few more goals.

A good example of this happened a few weeks ago with my favourite team to bet on, Apollon Limassol Ladies. Six of their starting 11 were out for international duty and Sportsbet had them priced at 4.40 to win against a team they regularly beat by 7+ goals. Whoever came up with these odds must not have done their research though, because Apollon hasn't lost in their domestic league since their inception over 7 years ago, and they have so much depth compared to the rest of the league that there's no way losing a few players is going to affect them.

apollon.jpg
 
I think teams will generally field their regular players in games like these. I'm sure the strikers love it, and racking up a massive score would be great for team confidence. Sometimes teams basically stop playing after they are 3-0 or 4-0 up though, so I generally look through a team's previous results to see if they're the type that will settle for 4-0 or go for 15-0. A lot of the time, the difference in quality is so big that even if players are taken off early and the game slows down, there will still be a few more goals.

A good example of this happened a few weeks ago with my favourite team to bet on, Apollon Limassol Ladies. Six of their starting 11 were out for international duty and Sportsbet had them priced at 4.40 to win against a team they regularly beat by 7+ goals. Whoever came up with these odds must not have done their research though, because Apollon hasn't lost in their domestic league since their inception over 7 years ago, and they have so much depth compared to the rest of the league that there's no way losing a few players is going to affect them.

View attachment 219850
Haha you're my new favourite BigFooty poster. This is brilliant.
 
Aug 15, 2011
23,780
8,380
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
Are FGS worth betting on? I find ti hard to deciper what odds i should be getting for what players.

I suppose if your paying $9 then youd want that player to kick the FG at least 1 in every 8 weeks to break even?

Is that the basics
 

Lensen

You've ruined the act, GOB
Feb 23, 2003
15,030
15,468
Brisbane
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
Are FGS worth betting on? I find ti hard to deciper what odds i should be getting for what players.

I suppose if your paying $9 then youd want that player to kick the FG at least 1 in every 8 weeks to break even?

Is that the basics
i've done well out of it with a model, but there's not value in every game and rarely on favourites. so you might end up with 100 shots over a season at 20-1 pops and beyond so variance plays a big part

i tend to look not so much as "kicks the first goal one in 8 weeks"thus value at $9, more how many goals a player is likely to kick in a game compared to how many goals there are likely to be. if he's likely to kick more than 1/8 the goals in a game then probably value at $9

if you find value at a book with first/last of each quarter it works better as obviously you then have 8 cracks at what is assessed as a value bet so reduces the impact of variance slightly
 
Oct 20, 2010
24,776
25,219
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Are FGS worth betting on? I find ti hard to deciper what odds i should be getting for what players.

I suppose if your paying $9 then youd want that player to kick the FG at least 1 in every 8 weeks to break even?

Is that the basics
I noticed that Walters would bob up for freo and kick the first goal last year quite a few times so I was doing some research on this yesterday and found that Walters kicked fgs 5 times last year which if you had $10 on @$8 every week it would be about $160 profit. Seems a lot lower then i had first assumed, it is really not as easy to pick someone as it looks.

My strategy would probably be going for the players paying overs for example Alex pearce last year was paying $41 and Ross had said all week that he was coming in for Taberner (not in defence), game starts and he has the first shot within a minute but hits the post. There was definitely value in there but these sort of options will be much harder to come by this year.
 

Lensen

You've ruined the act, GOB
Feb 23, 2003
15,030
15,468
Brisbane
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
I remember one year that Franklin and Milne both almost hit double figures for FGS and people were cleaning up taking them in a multi. No doubt a complete anomaly though.
think that was the year betstar (when they weren't just orange ladbrokes) kept giving away gold class tickets on their facey page for the Saturday night game - which mostly was st Kilda

Milney got me a lotta free movies that year
 
There is $2.5m matched in the "match odds" between Ireland and Netherlands on Betfair in the Twenty20.

There is $5.2m matched in the "will the match be completed"? market.

It's actually a good source for information looking at the latter market if you want to know if the rain has returned. I was literally just looking at that market and saw "yes" was showing $1.67 to back and $1.69 to lay. Within five seconds that went out to $2.80 and $2.86 respectively.
 

kyan

Team Captain
Feb 1, 2012
349
235
launceston
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Just got off the phone with Pinnaclebet and have been told they are relaunching their racing product in the next couple of weeks, didnt go into much detail about what is going to be done so watch this space.
 

Jugada

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
10,702
12,657
AFL Club
West Coast
Anyone use sportspunter (the odds comparison site) premium?

What's the difference? What bookies do they list?

TopSport, Ubet, Flemington Sportsbet, TAB, WA TAB

I was going to get it but there are too many times when i see bookies odds missing on the regular one to be worth it for the price. For a couple extra bookies anyway i can just check manually
 

Oraaaaazio

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2014
1,712
2,587
AFL Club
Essendon
TopSport, Ubet, Flemington Sportsbet, TAB, WA TAB

I was going to get it but there are too many times when i see bookies odds missing on the regular one to be worth it for the price. For a couple extra bookies anyway i can just check manually
Ta, think I might keep doing the same.
 
Back