General Markets Talk

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JDC! said:
With that in mind, is anyone selling what they have now and hoping to buy back into the market later on? Am I showing my inexperience here?
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Well, there is a heap of selling going on and I bet they're all planning on getting in again later.

Is that the optimal way to go? I don't know. Could be.
 
Jimmy_the_Gent said:
Well, there is a heap of selling going on and I bet they're all planning on getting in again later.

Is that the optimal way to go? I don't know. Could be.
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Probably a dumb question in hindsight. I suppose I just wanted to generate discussion regarding the potential depths of the market.
 
JDC! said:
Probably a dumb question in hindsight. I suppose I just wanted to generate discussion regarding the potential depths of the market.
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No really, is it too late though?

I have thought of trimming/cutting a couple of things but I already was in 40% cash before this all started.
 

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juss said:
My portfolio is well down like most people's, but I am still considering buying at this low, the question is will things keep dropping or start on the up. Timing is key here.
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certainly not prior to a lockout that's for sure. My industry has been really resilient in the last 30 years, but we're now in a situation where the majority of our goods that go into production come from China and Italy.
 
juss said:
My portfolio is well down like most people's, but I am still considering buying at this low, the question is will things keep dropping or start on the up. Timing is key here.
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PE ratios are only just now down to "average" levels. So not even cheap on historical earnings, let alone future earnings.
 
juss said:
My portfolio is well down like most people's, but I am still considering buying at this low, the question is will things keep dropping or start on the up. Timing is key here.
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I'm just sitting on my hands tbh, apart from maybe looking at the gold miners it's still too early in this for mine.
 

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The World Health Organisation has noted the dramatic speed of the virus's spread, pointing out it took more than three months to infect 100,000 people but only 12 days to reach another 100,000.

im sorry but markets will fall by additional 50 percent from where they are now. This is getting way worse before it gets better.
 
Pommie Docker said:
I would be surprised if the majority of the market provided a dividend now.
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Thankfully got my Woodside (WPL) dividend yesterday and fully expecting my BHP dividend next week which is way way bigger than anything I can sticking that amount of $ in a bank. That being said, it will be interesting to see if they commit to dividends in the near future.

The RBA has got the economy levers all wrong. Japan has tried either zero or even negative interest rates for over 20 years. The RBA need to pump, prime the economy and get inflation going to a nice bubbly amount of say 5% pa. When we had SOME inflation, we used to get regular pay increases, more money made the value of the loans smaller and gave us cash to splash around. This near zero interest is a killer. Of course we do not want or need Paul Keating's 18% inflation rate, NOW that was hard to survive just like this near zero interest rates.
 
Seeds said:
The World Health Organisation has noted the dramatic speed of the virus's spread, pointing out it took more than three months to infect 100,000 people but only 12 days to reach another 100,000.

im sorry but markets will fall by additional 50 percent from where they are now. This is getting way worse before it gets better.
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50% seems like such an arbitrary number. How’d you come to that?
 
ThePezDispenser said:
50% seems like such an arbitrary number. How’d you come to that?
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At least 50 percent. Could be 90 percent.

couple of reasons.

1)the virus crisis hasnt really hit yet. Its still only 1000 people here. Its going to infect millions.

2) we havent had the financial crisis yet. its going to be impossible to avoid with businesses shutting down and losing cash flows. low quality corporate debt ratios were already terribly high before the virus even hit. Now take away these companies cash flow and defaults will start occuring. the banks and governments may take on that debt and it gives us time but then they will be the ones struggling instead.


this is the biggest economic disaster since the great depression. The GFC is going to small compared to this.

one thing could save us. A cure. thats the only thing that will stop this now.
 
Seeds said:
At least 50 percent. Could be 90 percent.

couple of reasons.

1)the virus crisis hasnt really hit yet. Its still only 1000 people here. Its going to infect millions.

2) we havent had the financial crisis yet. its going to be impossible to avoid with businesses shutting down and losing cash flows. low quality corporate debt ratios were already terribly high before the virus even hit. Now take away these companies cash flow and defaults will start occuring. the banks and governments may take on that debt and it gives us time but then they will be the ones struggling instead.


this is the biggest economic disaster since the great depression. The GFC is going to small compared to this.

one thing could save us. A cure. thats the only thing that will stop this now.
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I’m not discounting the fact it could happen, but I see a lot of that risk already priced in.

I don’t think we’ve bottomed out by any stretch or we’re about to bounce back quickly, just not so doomsday.

In saying that, there are still a lot of hooligans not treating this virus seriously, which could make it a lot worse!
 
ThePezDispenser said:
I’m not discounting the fact it could happen, but I see a lot of that risk already priced in.

I don’t think we’ve bottomed out by any stretch or we’re about to bounce back quickly, just not so doomsday.

In saying that, there are still a lot of hooligans not treating this virus seriously, which could make it a lot worse!
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Market fell 50 per ent during the gfc. Its only fallen 30 percent so far. And this is worse the. The gfc. Whole industries didnt shut down during the gfc.
 
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