General Markets Talk

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craigos

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 2, 2014
10,380
19,348
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When does the panic selling begin you think? If we have a few consecutive days of decline I reckon the new investors will become very trigger happy.
 

maryjames

Hall of Famer
Sep 21, 2008
30,456
19,307
docklands
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Geelong
Mate you must be loaded. You have all this money tied up in cryptocurency and property, what are you worried about?

I know I’m shitting myself with prices going down 1%.

With interest rates at an all time low, you’re paying $325 per week on a $400,000 loan over 30 years at 2.75%. You’re getting $750 per week on jobseeker if unemployed. Why would you need to default your loan or sell your house? Where is this oversupply of houses and people rushing to put their houses for sale?

There has been an oversupply of apartments for years. Houses and land are like gold. If you own apartments that’s your own fault.
I’m fine personally and always been positive in realestate but I’ve seen the bad times. You and most around here have not. They think the world just carries on around them. Banks have tightened it all up. People buying right now takes over 4 weeks to get finance and people can’t even borrow coz of covid. Lost jobs etc. I know this. I’m big into realestate. It’s my life technically the last 2 decades. Mortgagee auctions will have a sudden rise aswell in the outer growth suburbs.. I’ll bookmark that.

We are in a recession.. first time in 30 years. Let that sink in folks.and it’s only just begun.
 

maryjames

Hall of Famer
Sep 21, 2008
30,456
19,307
docklands
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Geelong
When does the panic selling begin you think? If we have a few consecutive days of decline I reckon the new investors will become very trigger happy.
Of course they will I already know investors who will be selling out. Plenty will. The investors who have not debts won’t care but most do. Not sure of the exact figures but wouldn’t mind someone can tell me.
 

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Deliverance

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2011
9,122
12,782
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When does the panic selling begin you think? If we have a few consecutive days of decline I reckon the new investors will become very trigger happy.
My initial prediction was early August. But if bad Coronavirus news continues to build in the US, it could be at any drop of the hat. Might dabble in some of Ash's bbus shares as it seems a simple way to hedge against the US.
Overall Im comfortable sitting on cash though. Nothing technical, just the vibe seems unnerving for investing currently.
 

craigos

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 2, 2014
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My initial prediction was early August. But if bad Coronavirus news continues to build in the US, it could be at any drop of the hat. Might dabble in some of Ash's bbus shares as it seems a simple way to hedge against the US.
Overall Im comfortable sitting on cash though. Nothing technical, just the vibe seems unnerving for investing currently.
I'm still very much in the camp of if you can afford to have the money tied up for more than 5 years then you're more than likely going to do very well. Just have to be very careful in what you buy into. Anything related to travel is still a big no for me.

It just feels like this could be that once in a lifetime opportunity you could look back on in 20 years time and wish you'd rolled the dice (to a certain extent). That's by no means to say that you couldn't also lose money in the short term. All depends on everyones situation I guess.
 

Kram

I'll brik u
May 2, 2007
59,661
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Travel related stuff I think like anything simply depends on valuation. WEB as I said earlier in the thread at nearly $5 with the massive dilution taken into account was getting a bit silly. But say if it comes right back towards $2 might be well worth buying again on risk v reward.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
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On the topic of the huge influx of new investors and brokerage accounts created around the world (US, Australia and UK in particular)

I wonder how many of those new investors were regular sport punters who needed a new fix? I know a few people who created brokerage accounts since March who have little clue about markets, they also so happened to be regular sport punters
Sports punting is very, very easy compared to the share market. I’m not an expert by any means but I’ve followed the market for years and don’t think I’d ever be able to get the same consistent ROI’s I see in punting.
I don’t understand why more investors don’t dive into advantage gambling
 

Gigantic

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 31, 2014
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Sports punting is very, very easy compared to the share market. I’m not an expert by any means but I’ve followed the market for years and don’t think I’d ever be able to get the same consistent ROI’s I see in punting.
I don’t understand why more investors don’t dive into advantage gambling
Before they put out legislation to prevent free bets / sign-up bonuses in NSW, I was reaping some handy cash from arbitrage opportunities that were extremely minimal risk.

Still possible without free bets/sign up bonuses but the ROI is not even remotely close to what it was.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
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Before they put out legislation to prevent free bets / sign-up bonuses in NSW, I was reaping some handy cash from arbitrage opportunities that were extremely minimal risk.

Still possible without free bets/sign up bonuses but the ROI is not even remotely close to what it was.
I spend way too much time on it. But generally can pull at least 20-30% ROI a month averaged out over a large sample size
 

ash_1050

Club Legend
Nov 21, 2009
2,937
5,136
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Anyone holding AT1? They're ramping up production of their testing COVID kit substantially over the next few months and things look to be getting worse before they'll get better.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
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Anyone hold BRN? not really into speccies but this one intrigued me
 

craigos

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 2, 2014
10,380
19,348
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Sports punting is very, very easy compared to the share market. I’m not an expert by any means but I’ve followed the market for years and don’t think I’d ever be able to get the same consistent ROI’s I see in punting.
I don’t understand why more investors don’t dive into advantage gambling
As someone who does both (to varying degrees of success) the thing with share market is you kind of get a few different opportunities with your investment. You can short term trade then if say an announcement isn't as positive as hoped can hang on for the long play. Throw some money in banks and just let the dividends keep reinvesting.
 

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craigos

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 2, 2014
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Trying to get a higher percentage of what I hold into gold stocks at present. Got in to CNB which I'd say is extremely low risk at the moment and got in on GSM very low which is more a speculative trade but with a potentially huge upside.

If I had my time again I'd have probably day traded a lot of stocks or at the very least free carry as much as possible.

The Aus market still has room for growth but whatever the hell the US market is doing is bananas.
 

Jimmy_the_Gent

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 25, 2004
15,328
8,188
Perth
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Chinese stocks went bang today. IZZ was up 4% and CETF 8%.

I had been planning on adding more CETF but wasn't quick enough to get the price I wanted. I don't hold IZZ.

I did add extra emerging markets (VGE) in late April and that's done really well. Up nearly 10% in a bit more than 2 months and has kicked out an ok dividend.

My eyes are now turning to Europe but it'll probably take a decent dip to entice me. Like everyone I want to hold more US stuff but it's so damn frothy.
 

Jimmy_the_Gent

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 25, 2004
15,328
8,188
Perth
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Looking at APT capital raising document, I can find their underlying sales figure of $11.1 billion really easily but I can't locate their cut of these sales at all.

The underlying sales are basically the sum of all the transactions Afterpay were involved in but it's their revenue that would matter to an investor.

For example, if I buy a $70 product via Afterpay, they're pointing out that they were involved in a $70 transaction. However, Afterpay would only get a fee of, say, $1 from the retailer based on this transaction. They don't keep the other $69.

I wonder how many retail investors are not understanding this and going "these figures look great! We need to buy APT!".
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,088
2,470
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Adelaide
Looking at APT capital raising document, I can find their underlying sales figure of $11.1 billion really easily but I can't locate their cut of these sales at all.

The underlying sales are basically the sum of all the transactions Afterpay were involved in but it's their revenue that would matter to an investor.

For example, if I buy a $70 product via Afterpay, they're pointing out that they were involved in a $70 transaction. However, Afterpay would only get a fee of, say, $1 from the retailer based on this transaction. They don't keep the other $69.

I wonder how many retail investors are not understanding this and going "these figures look great! We need to buy APT!".
Could be different per industry/company but I think APT take 2%?

But yeah, buying now when the directors are dumping is surely going to end badly
 

craigos

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 2, 2014
10,380
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Has anyone come across these facebook/twitter groups that pump up stocks? Seems there's a plethora of them and for whatever reason idiots are investing their money based on polls on what stocks will go up.

Might join them and throw up some of my dog stocks that I've been holding for years in the hope of breaking even.
 

sabre_ac

Moderator
Sep 10, 2000
13,935
587
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Gold companies are an interesting play with gold prices at $1800 USD and predicted to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Most gold companies can produce a bar of gold for around the $1000 USD mark, which at $1300 last year was a decent return, at $1800 is a great return. Assumably most of the gold price appreciation is marked in, that said, a few of these companies will be reinstating/increasing dividend programs which will also add value.
 

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