General Markets Talk

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ash_1050

Premiership Player
Nov 21, 2009
3,066
5,321
Melbourne
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Essendon
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Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
Seems to be delays with survey and drill results for most of the juniors with every man and their dog digging anything with a speck of gold. Looking at those who have had delays and with impatient shareholders getting out prior to results
Definitely the case for drill results in Canada, allow a 2-6 week leeway period from when they expect to have results and when they actually have the results.
 

craigos

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 2, 2014
10,875
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Gas definitely going to kick off in a big way. Got in on BUY a while back, is up another 17% this morning. TEG, GAS (both somewhat linked) jumped yesterday as well.
 

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craigos

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 2, 2014
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Mentioned IMM a while back (long term holder), released some extremely good news this morning. I really like a lot of the stuff these guys are doing. Also trade in the US under IMMP. Definitely a long term trade imo.

Principal investigator, Dr Martin Forster, University College London Hospital, said: “We are very encouraged by the results in this patient group with resistant late stage Head & Neck Cancers where the likelihood of response to other treatments is small. The durability of responses and the two patients with a complete response are extremely promising signals and this combination should be further investigated.”

Immutep CSO and CMO, Dr Frederic Triebel said: “The combination of efti and pembrolizumab is reporting encouraging progression free survival in patients with HNSCC and NSCLC, improving on the results from separate historical trials. For example, in comparable studies, HNSCC patients receiving
1,2 pembrolizumab monotherapy had a PFS of 2.1 months, or 2.3 months if given chemotherapy . This
compares to a PFS of 4.3 months in HNSCC patients from the TACTI-002 trial, thus far. To have these very good and durable responses in both groups and without the use of chemotherapy is highly encouraging for efti.”

**PFS = Progression-free survival
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,238
4,561
London, UK
AFL Club
West Coast
Sea of green today. CAD, FYI and TEG.
CAD has been very good. Keeping it for as long as I can. Hopefully pays me back for the DEG loss

Should keep building well past 2, kinda hoping they don’t release the surveys as plenty will be selling on the news

Will cash out 50% and free hold from 2 if it’s hits prior to survey results
 

Ordovician

Club Legend
Sep 4, 2008
2,523
3,623
Malvern
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Great charts!

That is an extraordinarily complex question.

In short we are not replaying the 29 crash.

To do so would require a massive crash in property values to sink the banks like in 2008. At the moment US property particularly residential is doing very well.

Currently the existential threat is posed by the trash end of the corporate bond market, which should hold up if the Fed is prepared to keep buying junk bonds. The Greenspan put has broadened considerably since his reign of destruction.

The only thing that is remotely possible, that can truly sink the US market short term, is the threat of another Trump victory obstructed by the Democrats controlling both houses in the Congress.

The US market has already priced in a Biden victory in November with their projected 6 trillion federal deficit gushing cash all over the US. Magic Money Tree theory with finally be given a good full scale work out.

If Biden gets in and gushes money wantonly, that should feed a boom in the middle of the 20s that could echo the 1920s boom, and result in a consequent Great Depression style bust. Some serious commentators are talking about another 4 fold increase in the US markets this decade post Covid. A continuing boom of such magnitude should resolve itself in a full scale depression.
 
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Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,238
4,561
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I think the US have set themselves up well to avoid a crash.

- Banks have put in good protections since GFC
- my property in Palm Beach has soared circa 30% in 18 months but still over 50% below pre GFC values. Replicating most property in the US outside the inflated markets like NYC which is still dropping
- increase in wealth from property means more spending
- the rent I’m paid is paid directly from the government, my tenants never see it. They’re incentivised to look after the property. If I lodge a complaint or kick them out, their rental budget is reduced each time. I really like this scheme
- such a diverse economy

Only a few small points that holds them in good stead
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,238
4,561
London, UK
AFL Club
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CAD has been very good. Keeping it for as long as I can. Hopefully pays me back for the DEG loss

Should keep building well past 2, kinda hoping they don’t release the surveys as plenty will be selling on the news

Will cash out 50% and free hold from 2 if it’s hits prior to survey results
CAD hitting 1 bagger territory today after a week

Probably won’t look to sell any at this stage. Still room to move
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,768
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NSM lists Thursday finally... well over-subscribed by the looks. Top 20 shareholders is also pretty interesting. lots of Chinese money there. Will closely watch this. Has potential.
 

Kram

I'll brik u
May 2, 2007
60,503
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WA
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Fremantle
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Chicago Bears, de Boer, Arsenal
Tim Goyder's other mob CHN on the fly today, spewin I passed on buying that along with LTR.
 

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Ordovician

Club Legend
Sep 4, 2008
2,523
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Dear Kram, apples are not blue hence your analogy breaks down completely. The question should have been posed as “comparing blueberries with oranges”. 😂

NASDAQ 2020 (orange) vs NASDAQ 1999 (blue)

View attachment 969309
This is getting perilously close to the underlying noumena of the markets.

If you were a post modern Gannist cum Hoytist-Harrisonite, your response would have been something like:

“Well durr!, what else would you expect?”

There are those who for various reasons, valid or invalid, firmly believe that the markets play out the same patterns over and over again but with different circumstances driving the repeating pattern.

What is remarkable about your illustration is the way the same US market segment is coinciding nearly perfectly, with its behavior at exactly the same point in in the last economic cycle.

Of course the drivers are different. The late 90’s, the dot com bubble, was based on a delusional orgy of greed predicated on the interesting notion that any start up company that had an internet component the their business dreams, was going to become sensationally successful.

This time the orgy of greed and fear is based on negative real interest rates, T10 yield v falsified CPI, causing billions of newly created freshly printed (metaphorically so) dollars, to create a flood of liquidity seeking a safe haven by pouring into the leading successful tech giants, all of whom have positive cash flow, real profits and reasonable growth prospects in the post Covid environment, plus some of the high growth emerging potential tech leaders like Zoom and Square.

That is all very well but will it end in tears again? That is the billion dollar question.

Just because stocks are wildly overvalued does not mean they are going to crash anytime soon. Market peaks run far higher than most traders or investors ever anticipate. Bubble market generally correct but this usually occurs when least expected, just like the Spainish Inquisition.

So take your pick, another flash crash or a slower grinding bear market as some of the economic chooks released by the insanity of the Fed and nuffyness of the US Covid response, come home to roost.
 
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