General Markets Talk

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Kram said:
Wasn't that worried recently and did have a couple of small nibbles last week. But kind of turned now, I'm sitting this out for the moment, apart from looking at adding to gold miners.
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I only have super...I ignored my instinct with the GFC and held and took a while to to get it back...Only ignored the instinct a week this time before shifting to cash...only lost 10k this time...will just sit for a month or two...I reckon things are just kicking off with Corona....

reckon there's some big falls coming
 
Lach72 said:
I only have super...I ignored my instinct with the GFC and held and took a while to to get it back...Only ignored the instinct a week this time before shifting to cash...only lost 10k this time...will just sit for a month or two...I reckon things are just kicking off with Corona....

reckon there's some big falls coming
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all ords down 6.7% today so far...Worst day since Oct 2008 apparently
 
This fall has to do with Russia deciding that they want to squeeze US shale oil miners by not cutting production, which has led to Saudi Arabia slashing prices of oil by $4-$6 across the board and saying that they will increase production in the coming months. No one saw that coming.

A lot of banks and other institutions are exposed to oil through their investment strategies.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are now in a price war in an already depressed market, which is absolutely ******* stupid geopolitical bullshit. It will send some of the smaller oil companies in the US to the wall, which will allow Exxon and Chevron to consolidate their ownership (they can ride out anything because they supply the US economy), and most likely destroy the economies of Iran and Iraq that are heavily dependant on the price of oil.



Russia says that their economy can survive at $40 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia and the US say, 'Let's see if it can survive at $20-30 a barrel.'

And if you're in gold...you might want to get out. When the US market opens, there's going to be so many margin calls needing to be covered by gold hedges that it will make your head spin.
 
When this market turns there is s**t loads of money to be made. It may be mid year, it may be November, but if you pick the bottom as BT would say...Boy oh Boy wowee. The banks look ridiculously cheap.
 
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Big Cox 88 said:
When this market turns there is s**t loads of money to be made. It may be mid year, it may be November, but if you pick the bottom as BT would say...Boy oh Boy wowee. The banks look ridiculously cheap.
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I’d give it till about June before the s**t hits the fan. This is only the early signs IMO

There is a high chance of a recession coming and a vaccine for this virus is many months away

I think in 2-3 months it hits the bottom of the barrel

This is only the start of it
 
Taylor said:
I wonder if any of the banks will look to acquire each other while their stock prices are depressed. They've all got plenty of cash on hand for it.
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I imagine regulators won't allow it as they're already a dodgy oligopoly.

Maybe if one of them is about to go bust.

Can't believe I wrote that but all of a sudden you can't be sure.
 

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Janus said:
This fall has to do with Russia deciding that they want to squeeze US shale oil miners by not cutting production, which has led to Saudi Arabia slashing prices of oil by $4-$6 across the board and saying that they will increase production in the coming months. No one saw that coming.

A lot of banks and other institutions are exposed to oil through their investment strategies.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are now in a price war in an already depressed market, which is absolutely ******* stupid geopolitical bullshit. It will send some of the smaller oil companies in the US to the wall, which will allow Exxon and Chevron to consolidate their ownership (they can ride out anything because they supply the US economy), and most likely destroy the economies of Iran and Iraq that are heavily dependant on the price of oil.



Russia says that their economy can survive at $40 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia and the US say, 'Let's see if it can survive at $20-30 a barrel.'

And if you're in gold...you might want to get out. When the US market opens, there's going to be so many margin calls needing to be covered by gold hedges that it will make your head spin.
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So um why would this crash the australian market? We are oil importers. A fall in oil prices is great news for our companies As it reduces their costs yet we are down 7 percent?
 
Seeds said:
So um why would this crash the australian market? We are oil importers. A fall in oil prices is great news for our companies As it reduces their costs yet we are down 7 percent?
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Because retail traders are dumb and think that if the US tanks (as it will since their GDP is exposed to oil as an exporter as well as an importer), it must mean that it's bad for Australia too. It's also because a lot of investors stupidly use all their margin on accounts and get wiped out on margin calls, so they are forced to sell all their positions to cover the loss.

Most of it is financial contagion. It actually helps Australia in the long run, because it lowers the price of transport costs of iron ore, coal and other products to China. There's pain now, but if you're not stupidly above 2x leverage in this environment you'll be able not only ride it out, but take advantage of opportunities. I'm down only $500 on a $60k portfolio because I've hedged out market and sector risk by going long/short companies in the same sector. Still got a lovely $20k cushion before I'd even get close to a margin call.

When this is over, the handbrake of the short comes off for awhile.

The Australian Dollar is still buying 66 USD. It only dropped 1-2% on the day, and that is the definitive guide to whether or not professionals believe that the Australian stock market was oversold or not, because it's a leading indicator of economic sentiment (not market sentiment).

No one expected this bullshit from the Russians and the Saudis. If you want proof of that - Warren Buffet invested in Occidental Petroleum in 2018, and increased his stake last year.

As of this morning, it's down 23.68% in value.
 
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Janus said:
Because retail traders are dumb and think that if the US tanks (as it will since their GDP is exposed to oil as an exporter as well as an importer), it must mean that it's bad for Australia too. It's also because a lot of investors stupidly use all their margin on accounts and get wiped out on margin calls, so they are forced to sell all their positions to cover the loss.

Most of it is financial contagion. It actually helps Australia in the long run, because it lowers the price of transport costs of iron ore, coal and other products to China. There's pain now, but if you're not stupidly above 2x leverage in this environment you'll be able not only ride it out, but take advantage of opportunities. I'm down only $500 on a $60k portfolio because I've hedged out market and sector risk by going long/short companies in the same sector. Still got a lovely $20k cushion before I'd even get close to a margin call.

When this is over, the handbrake of the short comes off for awhile.

The Australian Dollar is still buying 66 USD. It only dropped 1-2% on the day, and that is the definitive guide to whether or not professionals believe that the Australian stock market was oversold or not, because it's a leading indicator of economic sentiment.

No one expected this bullshit from the Russians and the Saudis. If you want proof of that - Warren Buffet invested in Occidental Petroleum in 2018, and increased his stake last year.

As of this morning, it's down 23.68% in value.
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Can see BHP bounces back the quickest due to it's diversity. Can't wait to get it at an absolute steal.
 
What would be the signs that recovery is about to kick in?

I would expect a series of reports of earnings down, profits down etc which will keep sentiment low but after that the following half yearly report will be recording double digit increases in revenue and profit and it will take off.

I'm not experienced in this, what do you think?
 
Big Cox 88 said:
When this market turns there is s**t loads of money to be made. It may be mid year, it may be November, but if you pick the bottom as BT would say...Boy oh Boy wowee. The banks look ridiculously cheap.
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Man who try to pick bottom, get smelly finger!
 
Dow Futures suspended already dropped 5%. If a 5% drop is reached during trading the Dow Jones will close trading for 15 minutes. If 13% drop is reached another 15 minute trade halt. If 20% drop hits they will halt trade for the day. Apparently there is no buying volume to support a bounce so it could cascade really quickly.
 
Warren Buffett's investment in Occidental Petroleum has just shed almost half it's value in a single day. 42.33%.

Oh, and trading stopped for 15 minutes. Time for the PPT to go to work :p
 
Janus said:
Because retail traders are dumb and think that if the US tanks (as it will since their GDP is exposed to oil as an exporter as well as an importer), it must mean that it's bad for Australia too. It's also because a lot of investors stupidly use all their margin on accounts and get wiped out on margin calls, so they are forced to sell all their positions to cover the loss.

Most of it is financial contagion. It actually helps Australia in the long run, because it lowers the price of transport costs of iron ore, coal and other products to China. There's pain now, but if you're not stupidly above 2x leverage in this environment you'll be able not only ride it out, but take advantage of opportunities. I'm down only $500 on a $60k portfolio because I've hedged out market and sector risk by going long/short companies in the same sector. Still got a lovely $20k cushion before I'd even get close to a margin call.

When this is over, the handbrake of the short comes off for awhile.

The Australian Dollar is still buying 66 USD. It only dropped 1-2% on the day, and that is the definitive guide to whether or not professionals believe that the Australian stock market was oversold or not, because it's a leading indicator of economic sentiment (not market sentiment).

No one expected this bullshit from the Russians and the Saudis. If you want proof of that - Warren Buffet invested in Occidental Petroleum in 2018, and increased his stake last year.

As of this morning, it's down 23.68% in value.
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Thought so. Australian investors are idiots. Our market should of rebounded yesterday on the oil price news.
 
superfraser said:
After the GFC, how long did it take for the markets to be good buying? and how long before the markets began to turn?
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Completely irrelevant to this crisis. That was a liquidity crisis driven by bad debt in housing. This crisis is more fear about a supply side crisis combined with a crash in demand for travel and transport services. if you want to predict the bottom of this crisis then its best to guess when the virus will stop spreading. if you can guess that correctly before the market you will make money.
 
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