General Markets Talk

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sabre_ac said:
I dived back into the market last week (didn't have the liquidity to return earlier) and I'm starting to think I may have been a bit premature. The goal is to flatten the curve and not to reduce the amount of area beneath it, with this in mind, why does that market assume that there aren't more hard times ahead?

I know the market is irrational, the sell-off was likely an overreaction, but doesn't the bounce back assume that policymakers were essentially wrong? (The virus in the medium to long-term is not disruptive).

Perhaps a big driver of the optimism is technology and opportunities relating to deeper talent pools (ability to recruit abroad now with remote work). As well as the assumption that people are social beings and the current treatments and preventative measures are enough for people and corporates alike to take risks.
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Who was is that said "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"? Livermore?

I've got a lot of long term free-carry holdings that are enjoying the recent run but am not willing to discard my downside protection just yet. A second wave could prove devastating.
 
Mofra said:
Who was is that said "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"? Livermore?

I've got a lot of long term free-carry holdings that are enjoying the recent run but am not willing to discard my downside protection just yet. A second wave could prove devastating.
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I’m more worried about the longer term effect of the lockdowns than a second wave.

We’re in a far greater position to handle any second wave, whilst there is still great uncertainty on so many industries!
 
ThePezDispenser said:
I’m more worried about the longer term effect of the lockdowns than a second wave.

We’re in a far greater position to handle any second wave, whilst there is still great uncertainty on so many industries!
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Agreed.

I'm concerned that many people have been given a taste of what Universal Basic Income can be and won't want to give it back. In my opinion, after the death toll and effects of isolation (not to be underestimated), big government and forced wealth redistribution could be here to stay.
 

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EZYpimGU8AASwCm


National prices down for the first time in 10 months but they don't crash and are still up nearly 10% on the year.

The Melbourne institute releases that inflation went backward in Australia in May (-1.2%).

The Federal Gov is talking about a $20,000 building-a-new-home grant.

America is fuuuucked (so the USD falls):

EZYF_M3WAAMx8ix


That ASX is up solidly today and crushed it last week.
 
Jimmy_the_Gent said:
EZYpimGU8AASwCm


National prices down for the first time in 10 months but they don't crash and are still up nearly 10% on the year.

The Melbourne institute releases that inflation went backward in Australia in May (-1.2%).

The Federal Gov is talking about a $20,000 building-a-new-home grant.

America is fuuuucked (so the USD falls):

EZYF_M3WAAMx8ix


That ASX is up solidly today and crushed it last week.
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* me why are governments in this country so hell bent in flaming the property market so much.

Any data in the number of property sales? Ie are people selling or holding on to their houses.
 
Looking at plunging some cash into Woodside this week. Hoping it can be a house deposit for me in 3-4 years time
 
Kram said:
I want to add to mine but kind of hoping it pulls back a tad at some stage with the rest of the market.
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Thursday looks like a big day for oil prices. Hoping it goes south so I can jump in then
 

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Markets fiddling while the world burns.
Granted the DJIA is only 30 stocks, many of whom operate as consumer monopolies. Not really representative of the broader economy.

I'm still holding onto some downside protection, as much as the past few weeks have made my portfolio look a lot better.
 
Gigantic said:
Announcement of -0.3% growth and ASX soars the next day, granted it was probably already priced in but to me the markets haven't made sense for the last few months
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The markets haven't made sense for years. I've been hearing for ages now that stocks are addicted to monetary stimulus, so bad news has stopped being bad news. Now it's just a step closer to another hit from a reserve bank.

On the other hand, when the reserve banks try to take stimulus away - markets throw a tantrum. See the recent tapper tantrum.
 
Deliverance said:
Where is the money coming from? It's not from the companies themselves. Which is scary.
markets.businessinsider.com

Top Wall Street firms are getting increasingly worried corporate stock buybacks are drying up just when the market needs them most

Of S&P 500 companies, 164 have either suspended their buyback programs or cut their dividends, according to a Goldman Sachs note published on Tuesday.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com
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Stock buy backs are not a good thing at all. This Wall Street is only concerned for itself with no concern for Main Street.
 
Brokers and advisors have record cash rather than holdings and mostly sitting on the sidelines during this rise. They still expect a crash. If theyre right, alot of new investors are about to lose their asses given the money pumped into the market since april
 
At the depth of the crash it was all one way, almost nobody was saying buy and anyone that did was getting shot down as 'mad'. Now it has almost flipped the opposite, worries are all over and anyone that is still isn't buying into it is silly. Fear done a 180 to greed.

I wonder if we aren't far off the top of this run here.
 
Kram said:
At the depth of the crash it was all one way, almost nobody was saying buy and anyone that did was getting shot down as 'mad'. Now it has almost flipped the opposite, worries are all over and anyone that is still isn't buying into it is silly. Fear done a 180 to greed.

I wonder if we aren't far off the top of this run here.
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If 1929 repeats, end of August should be a good time to cash out. I'll be seriously considering hedging against at that stage.
 
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