General Markets Talk

Remove this Banner Ad

Kram said:
Anyone have an opinion on oil atm and Woodside v Santos?

I have the latter via Oilsearch, I swear we must have go bent over on that deal..
Click to expand...
Both look good value atm.
I'd go Woodside atm because of the dividend which you'd think'd be another good one. I arsed the bottom on 22 July topping up at $30.47. They're now my biggest holding.
BHP's good value too. I picked up a couple thousand at a little under $38 earlier in July. Speculation about decreasing demand from China is over egged I reckon.
If you're looking for value, here's an interesting article in the AFR this morning.
‘The food sector in Australia is hopelessly, grossly undervalued’
 

Log in to remove this ad.

DaRick said:
It's a bear market rally.

This won't end until Feds hike enough to crush commodities, and my CVX stock increasing by almost 10% (!) overnight indicates that commodities are not yet crushed - or at least oil isn't.

I know energy stocks are quite volatile, but CVX is one of the most stable ones, and it's a multinational - imagine it increasing by that much in one night! You very rarely see that sort of one-day movement except in crashes.
Click to expand...
FWIW - I'm going short.
might get burnt
 
DaRick said:
Shorting tends to be costly, so I can't recommend it in principle, but if you're going to do so it would be after a bear market really.
Click to expand...
IIRC markets trend up 86% of the time. So i will be playing against the odds.
The other option is long dated SPY puts, but I just know if i touch options i will fry worse.

SPY hit a resistance level last night. I'm looking for a retracement near that level, with a stop above.
 
Kram said:
Man how's the lithium bull run this month, profit taking time though I think Lion sell order fell a couple of cents short.
Click to expand...

Lion is back to being my biggest holding. I was looking at my trading history on it earlier

My last sell was at $1.87 on 28/3 from my account

I then rebought in my Mrs account on 1/6 for $1.13 and sold 9/6 at $1.16

I then bought again 14/6 for $1.03

Great trading, except I effed up and bought the last one in my account, which reminded me of the post below.


Falchoon said:
I wish, 80% of my profits are in my name (thanks LTR & LPD) and 80% of my investments are in my wife's name. With a 50% CGT discount I'm still paying more tax than her! She even has a $10k capital loss offset sitting there (no thanks KEY).
Click to expand...

I keep making money in the account where I have to pay tax and losing in the one where I don't!
 
I've sold UUP and replaced with FXE for a few reasons:

  • FXE is close to a 10 year low
  • US inflation + Fed interest rate hawkishness has peaked
  • EUR inflation is expected to outstrip US inflation

AUS inflation is also expected to outstrip US inflation, so I've sold half of my USD ETF. That means I have the same amount in USD and FXA, hedging both against one another.

I have placed $2500 in FXE vs $2150 in USDU because over the short-term FXE should fare better.

BUT global economic slowdown still more likely than not, so have retained USDU because USD is still safe haven currency + AUS/EUR economies will probably perform particularly poorly due to elevated gas/food prices ripping into discretionary spending.

Johnny Bananas
 
Falchoon said:
Lion is back to being my biggest holding. I was looking at my trading history on it earlier

My last sell was at $1.87 on 28/3 from my account

I then rebought in my Mrs account on 1/6 for $1.13 and sold 9/6 at $1.16

I then bought again 14/6 for $1.03

Great trading, except I effed up and bought the last one in my account, which reminded me of the post below.




I keep making money in the account where I have to pay tax and losing in the one where I don't!
Click to expand...
Missed out at selling some at $1.80 pulling it back higher getting greedy :$

I'm not convinced on how long they will stay up here or in the market broadly will try and push some through next week.
 
Kram said:
Missed out at selling some at $1.80 pulling it back higher getting greedy :$

I'm not convinced on how long they will stay up here or in the market broadly will try and push some through next week.
Click to expand...
I sold 30% of my holding at $1.75.

I still believe it has much more in it long term , but this run will be unlikely to break $2. TBH I thought it would struggle around $1.50. I'll probably buy back in again if it goes below that.
 
Last edited:
Kram said:
Missed out at selling some at $1.80 pulling it back higher getting greedy :$

I'm not convinced on how long they will stay up here or in the market broadly will try and push some through next week.
Click to expand...

sitting on $1.795 as I type
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

DaRick said:
I've sold UUP and replaced with FXE for a few reasons:

  • FXE is close to a 10 year low
  • US inflation + Fed interest rate hawkishness has peaked
  • EUR inflation is expected to outstrip US inflation

AUS inflation is also expected to outstrip US inflation, so I've sold half of my USD ETF. That means I have the same amount in USD and FXA, hedging both against one another.

I have placed $2500 in FXE vs $2150 in USDU because over the short-term FXE should fare better.

BUT global economic slowdown still more likely than not, so have retained USDU because USD is still safe haven currency + AUS/EUR economies will probably perform particularly poorly due to elevated gas/food prices ripping into discretionary spending.

Johnny Bananas
Click to expand...

Seemingly Nordea disagrees:

The global economy continues to lose momentum, but central banks will concentrate on their efforts to rein in inflation. Long yields will rebound to higher levels, while the EUR/USD has more downside left.

Many leading economic indicators have taken a beating, and recession worries have dented central bank expectations and driven long bond yields sharply lower. We argue that despite weakening global growth momentum, central banks continue to be preoccupied with much-too-high inflation and continue to tighten policy. In addition, we believe the US economy is much stronger than many seem to think.

Against this backdrop, we think that

  • the Fed will deliver 50bp hikes in September and November, followed by 25bp in December.
  • the ECB will hike by 50bp in September and October before moderating to a 25bp rate hike in December.
  • the US 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4% next year, while the German 10-year yield will have to settle for 2%.
  • EUR/USD is set to fall below parity to bottom at around 0.97 at the turn of the year.

The Fed cannot ease on its inflation worries for a long time​

174385
Click to expand...

But MacroBusiness has a different view:

My own view is that inflation risks are tilted to the downside, not least because of the deflation tsunami building in China. However, I am still cautious about stocks with the Fed piling in and disinflation about to rob corporations of pricing power.

I expect further downside for the earnings outlook.
Click to expand...

Do I plan to change anything? No. USDU is close to an all-time high, UUP was close to one when I sold it, and FXE is at an all-time low. It's just that any investment in FXE may take a while to really pay off.

EDIT: Credit Suisse forecasts that EUR/USD will be as low as 0.97 by the end of Q3 2022 (i.e. 30 September) rather than Q4 2022 (i.e. 31 December) like Nordea expects. It's currently 1.02. I bought in at about 1.03. When it gets to 0.97, I'll add $US500 (if not selling USDU) and $US1000 (if selling USDU), and invest in some other non-US currency (maybe CNY since it'll be at rock bottom relative to USD - CNY, EUR and AUD all perform poorly during deflationary times).
 
Last edited:
I see a few mentions of SHL. I bought in at $33 but looking to get out and either roll it into another health stock with better projected earnings (like RMD) or just ignore health stocks all together.
 
I sold $250 of IXJ and IXI respectively because both are currently at unsustainably high levels according to my technicals (close to $90 and $120 respectively).

They both still make up over 7% of my portfolio, and those were both brokerage-free trades, so it wasn't false economy.
 
DaRick said:
AUS inflation is also expected to outstrip US inflation, so I've sold half of my USD ETF. That means I have the same amount in USD and FXA, hedging both against one another.

Johnny Bananas
Click to expand...
Interesting, is there an expectation that growth in Australia will also be ahead? (I know inflation and growth are not necessarily related).

Also, what would be driving inflation in Australia? It can't be property prices growing faster than the U.S
 
sabre_ac said:
Interesting, is there an expectation that growth in Australia will also be ahead? (I know inflation and growth are not necessarily related).

Also, what would be driving inflation in Australia? It can't be property prices growing faster than the U.S
Click to expand...

Energy.

That said, it seems that the Fed has gone hawkish again, so USD > EUR/AUD for the next 3-6 months. There was previously speculation that US inflation has peaked, which means that the US Fed would stop hiking, which would be bearish for the USD over the shorter term (and indeed, EUR inflation is higher than US inflation, which would logically mean that the ECB is more likely to hike than the US Fed, which would help the Euro).

With hindsight, I sold UUP and bought FXE too soon, even though the former was at an all-time high and the latter was close to a 20-year low. I bought in at 1.03, it's currently 1.02, and Nordea/Credit Suisse think it will go down to 0.97, so I'll buy $US500-1000 more then, depending on whether I sell USDU or not.

That said, I've kept USDU and roughly 50% of my USD ETF holdings in reserve, because over the longer term a global recession is expected, which helps the USD because it's a safe haven.
 
Last edited:
RandB said:
I see a few mentions of SHL. I bought in at $33 but looking to get out and either roll it into another health stock with better projected earnings (like RMD) or just ignore health stocks all together.
Click to expand...
Sonic had a good result yesterday and went up, RMD I think had a slight beat but the sp has pulled back a bit.

Both great companies with great consistent track records, I don't see what's wrong with holding both long term.
 
DaRick said:
It's a bear market rally.

This won't end until Feds hike enough to crush commodities, and my CVX stock increasing by almost 10% (!) overnight indicates that commodities are not yet crushed - or at least oil isn't.

I know energy stocks are quite volatile, but CVX is one of the most stable ones, and it's a multinational - imagine it increasing by that much in one night! You very rarely see that sort of one-day movement except in crashes.
Click to expand...
Reporting season so far been surprisingly good?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top