General MFC discussion

[R_Grunter]

Yes, I do watch football and realise the Hawks finished top three. I also looked more deeply into their season rather than just their finishing position.

Petrie and Vardy? Really, that's part of your argument?

Not really an argument.
I can't really work out if you're agreeing with me anyway.
You said that Adelaide and WC would drop out then said that they would stay in.

Finishing position is a pretty good indication of the season. Wobbly teams don't finish top 4 generally.

 

[schmuttt]

Hawthorn won 5 games by under a goal. I don't care what anyone says, when a game is that close luck is a big factor. Their last few weeks of the season was also very poor:

Loss to us 29, most Hawthorn fans on here were talking about big alarm bells ringing after we ran all over them
Beat North 39, regulation win considering Norths form in the 2nd half of the year
Loss to Eagles by 25, Hawthorn trailing by 4-5 goals all night
Beat the Pies by 1 point, actually a really good game to watch but not the best performance by their standards
Loss to Geelong by 2, finally they don't win a close game
Loss to Bulldogs by 23, well and truly cooked here

I think they'll play finals as I have the Eagles and North missing, but GWS/Dogs/Swans/Adelaide are my only locks for the 8 currently.

 

[The Dr]

Not really an argument.
I can't really work out if you're agreeing with me anyway.
You said that Adelaide and WC would drop out then said that they would stay in.

Finishing position is a pretty good indication of the season. Wobbly teams don't finish top 4 generally.

No I didn't. I said they 'could' drop out, not 'would' drop out - which is a big difference. The odds of course are they do stay in - but I see some holes in their lists which means I see them as chances to drop out.

I agree wobbly teams don't finish top 4 generally - but I think the Hawks were an exception to the rule, and they've been further weakened in the offseason. Lots of pressure on O'Meara to get fit.

 

[The Dr]

Hawthorn won 5 games by under a goal. I don't care what anyone says, when a game is that close luck is a big factor. Their last few weeks of the season was also very poor:

Loss to us 29, most Hawthorn fans on here were talking about big alarm bells ringing after we ran all over them
Beat North 39, regulation win considering Norths form in the 2nd half of the year
Loss to Eagles by 25, Hawthorn trailing by 4-5 goals all night
Beat the Pies by 1 point, actually a really good game to watch but not the best performance by their standards
Loss to Geelong by 2, finally they don't win a close game
Loss to Bulldogs by 23, well and truly cooked here

I think they'll play finals as I have the Eagles and North missing, but GWS/Dogs/Swans/Adelaide are my only locks for the 8 currently.

Hold on, the Eagles have Petire so they can't miss out

 

[Klyntonius]

Hawthorn won 5 games by under a goal. I don't care what anyone says, when a game is that close luck is a big factor. Their last few weeks of the season was also very poor:

Loss to us 29, most Hawthorn fans on here were talking about big alarm bells ringing after we ran all over them
Beat North 39, regulation win considering Norths form in the 2nd half of the year
Loss to Eagles by 25, Hawthorn trailing by 4-5 goals all night
Beat the Pies by 1 point, actually a really good game to watch but not the best performance by their standards
Loss to Geelong by 2, finally they don't win a close game
Loss to Bulldogs by 23, well and truly cooked here

I think they'll play finals as I have the Eagles and North missing, but GWS/Dogs/Swans/Adelaide are my only locks for the 8 currently.

This echoes my thoughts too. Every year there's one or two teams that rocket and one or two that plummet. Dees and Saints are the favourites for a sharp rise, Collingwood with a favourable injury list could push for the 8, Port with Ryder back could do the same.

Norf dropping is widely considered a given by all who aren't the most ardent of Norf fans. Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast are also all candidates to slide.
Hawks already lost a step last year and whilst they gain Roughie back this season (and I hope he tears it up), they've lost their two best mids and their others old legends are slowing down.
Geelong lost two of their best four players from last years finals, have an ageing defence that has to slow down at some point and doesn't have the depth of talent to replace these losses. An injury to one of Dangerfield or Selwood will hurt massively.
West Coast missing Naitanui is enormous, their midfield is good but skinny on depth and if Priddis and Mitchell start dropping off through age then they look very vulnerable.

I think these are the seven teams fighting for the lower half of the eight but not top four.

 

[schmuttt]

Forgot to mention whilst the Hawks may have gained JOM and Mitchell, they've lost their best player of the modern era. Mitchell is a huge loss to that team, not only was he a gun mid but such a good distributor floating around on the HBF. JOM could be a superstar and Mitchell is a solid player but neither of them play anything like how Mitchell did.

 

[R_Grunter]

I can see the Eagles, Crows and/or Hawks (esp if Jaeger can't get on the park) dropping out of the 8.

Eagles are still probably a solid bet to make the eight
Crows again are more likely than not to make the eight

Hold on, the Eagles have Petire so they can't miss out

I can see the Eagles, Crows and/or Hawks (esp if Jaeger can't get on the park) dropping out of the 8.

Eagles are still probably a solid bet to make the eight
Crows again are more likely than not to make the eight

 

[R_Grunter]

Forgot to mention whilst the Hawks may have gained JOM and Mitchell, they've lost their best player of the modern era. Mitchell is a huge loss to that team, not only was he a gun mid but such a good distributor floating around on the HBF. JOM could be a superstar and Mitchell is a solid player but neither of them play anything like how Mitchell did.

So WCE will have a solid midfield then?

 

[schmuttt]

So WCE will have a solid midfield then?

I think it improves their midfield, but they've lost NN and Priddis is another year older. WCE are also quite an old side and desperately need the likes of Sheed to go to another level if they are to improve on this year, which I'm not sure will happen. Also for such a highly rated forwardline Kennedy is the only guy I'd back in to get a kick in a big game with Lecras, Darling, Hill, Jetta and Cripps all being big downhill skiiers.

 

[R_Grunter]

I think it improves their midfield, but they've lost NN and Priddis is another year older. WCE are also quite an old side and desperately need the likes of Sheed to go to another level if they are to improve on this year, which I'm not sure will happen. Also for such a highly rated forwardline Kennedy is the only guy I'd back in to get a kick in a big game with Lecras, Darling, Hill, Jetta and Cripps all being big downhill skiiers.

They're not the only capable players ones to go missing on more than one occasion either. They have enough quality key position players to be top 4 just need to put it together. I don't see them out of the 8 personally. Kennedy was the only one of those players getting a kick but it was still enough.

 

[Demon 16]

This echoes my thoughts too. Every year there's one or two teams that rocket and one or two that plummet. Dees and Saints are the favourites for a sharp rise, Collingwood with a favourable injury list could push for the 8, Port with Ryder back could do the same.

Norf dropping is widely considered a given by all who aren't the most ardent of Norf fans. Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast are also all candidates to slide.
Hawks already lost a step last year and whilst they gain Roughie back this season (and I hope he tears it up), they've lost their two best mids and their others old legends are slowing down.
Geelong lost two of their best four players from last years finals, have an ageing defence that has to slow down at some point and doesn't have the depth of talent to replace these losses. An injury to one of Dangerfield or Selwood will hurt massively.
West Coast missing Naitanui is enormous, their midfield is good but skinny on depth and if Priddis and Mitchell start dropping off through age then they look very vulnerable.

I think these are the seven teams fighting for the lower half of the eight but not top four.

Fremantle shooting up again is also a possibility I reckon. Ross Lyon sides have done this before.

It's harder to pick the failures than the successes.

Nobody predicted Freos season last year, and Norths plummet half way through the year was unforeseen as well.

 

[The Dr]

I can see the Eagles, Crows and/or Hawks (esp if Jaeger can't get on the park) dropping out of the 8.

Eagles are still probably a solid bet to make the eight
Crows again are more likely than not to make the eight

I'm not sure what you don't understand, so I'll again explain it simply.

You said: "I can't see anyone but the Roos dropping out of the 8 from last year."

I disagree. In my eyes, along with North, I can see the Eagles, Crows and/or Hawks dropping out of the 8. (I have not, as you implied, said they will drop out of the eight, only that it's possible ... as have many other posters in this thread).

It's unlikely all of those teams won't make the 8 but I simply listed the other teams aside from North that I think could be weaker this year, hence a possibility to slide out of the 8.

Simple enough, I hope?

 

[markm106]

Fremantle shooting up again is also a possibility I reckon. Ross Lyon sides have done this before.

It's harder to pick the failures than the successes.

Nobody predicted Freos season last year, and Norths plummet half way through the year was unforeseen as well.

I can see Freo improving somewhat but not a huge improvement. Ross Lyon has never coached a team to below a 50% win loss record until last season when it was 18%. He has a far bigger job than ever before.

 

[Tempy Tiger]

I can see Freo improving somewhat but not a huge improvement. Ross Lyon has never coached a team to below a 50% win loss record until last season when it was 18%. He has a far bigger job than ever before.

I'm not convinced that they'll improve at all. Ross the Boss seems to wear thin on the playing group after a few years. I'm not sure if they are still buying what he's selling. Plus they appear to have West Coke Eagles level cultural issues and the game has swung 180 degrees from their game style. I'll be surprised if they make the eight.

My gut instinct is that Lyon will get the chop this year but given he's just signed on for five he'd have to agree to walk I guess.

 

[Klyntonius]

Fremantle shooting up again is also a possibility I reckon. Ross Lyon sides have done this before.

It's harder to pick the failures than the successes.

Nobody predicted Freos season last year, and Norths plummet half way through the year was unforeseen as well.

Yeah, I've seen a few people say that about Freo and maybe it will happen but I just don't see it. Reckon Sandilands is cooked, have a big question mark on whether Fyfe can get back to anything like his best, doubtful we'll ever see Bennell play - at least with any regularity, think Brad Hill will be shown up to be Des Hedland MkII - an average player made to look good by champions, don't think McCarthy can carry the fowradline and the rest of their additions are average at best. So I'd be astounded to see them anywhere near the top eight by seasons end.

 

[Dory_77]

Freo will probably 'bounce' back to the 10-12 mark on the ladder. Their midfield is pretty good but the key posts are flimsy and they'll struggle to score. Should be able to choke out wins against equally mediocre teams and be pretty solid at home. A return to finals is very wishful thinking for them. Can't see Lyon being sacked this year either. They seem pretty set on rebuilding so I reckon they'll give him a bit of time to set one up and see how it goes. Yeah he's never done it before, rah rah, but he is a smart coach and should at least do for them what Roos managed for us (on field anyway in setting up a solid defense/gameplan).

 

[Klyntonius]

Freo will probably 'bounce' back to the 10-12 mark on the ladder. Their midfield is pretty good but the key posts are flimsy and they'll struggle to score. Should be able to choke out wins against equally mediocre teams and be pretty solid at home. A return to finals is very wishful thinking for them. Can't see Lyon being sacked this year either. They seem pretty set on rebuilding so I reckon they'll give him a bit of time to set one up and see how it goes. Yeah he's never done it before, rah rah, but he is a smart coach and should at least do for them what Roos managed for us (on field anyway in setting up a solid defense/gameplan).

Yeah, Lyon is safe as houses for at least the next two seasons. Whether he can successfully rebuild is a big question but he'll be given every opportunity to do it.

 

[R_Grunter]

Is it only me that thinks Cam McCarthy is an absolute gun considering the promise he was showing at such a young age?
There are question marks over Fyfe and Bennell for sure but McCarthy outshone Patton and Cameron IMO at GWS but never drew the same fanfare. All three of these firing and look out.

 

[PerfectFooty]

I'd rate Cameron ahead of McCarthy. i'd also do the same with Patton if he was ever on the park. McCarthy's not a big power forward or a mobile chf, he's more a third tier forward sort of like Lynch at Adelaide

 

[Topkent]

Is it only me that thinks Cam McCarthy is an absolute gun considering the promise he was showing at such a young age?
There are question marks over Fyfe and Bennell for sure but McCarthy outshone Patton and Cameron IMO at GWS but never drew the same fanfare. All three of these firing and look out.

Yeah, McCarthy isn't half the forward Cameron is.. that's ridiculous. He only got a game because Patton did his knee twice

 

[Klyntonius]

Is it only me that thinks Cam McCarthy is an absolute gun considering the promise he was showing at such a young age?
There are question marks over Fyfe and Bennell for sure but McCarthy outshone Patton and Cameron IMO at GWS but never drew the same fanfare. All three of these firing and look out.

I think he is talented but question the intestinal fortitude of someone to produce when the going gets tough when he couldn't stick it out at the Giants because of home sickness.

 

[LeverPuller]

Is that based on anything or just a wild stab?

What would make you think that the Crows or WC would do worse than last season?
Hawthorn has undergone some obvious change but I think this is part of some wishful thinking as they still have an incredible side and also Rough returning.

WC sams NicNat and Lycett is tough to gauge. They only just made the eight too - everyone is putting far too much into the GWS and Adelaide wins for mine.

Unless Sloane gets hurt Adelaide are a lock.

Hawthorn are interesting in that the trading hasn't really addressed anything, it just covered gaps. You can take their best 22 and replace SMitchell with TMitchell, Lewis with O'Meara and Ceglar with Vickery. Hill gone too although he's not much chop anyway. Their inside brigade still sucks, Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson another year older and the kids aren't exactly showing signs. I think they drop off the top 4 guaranteed but it's whether it's out of the 8.

 

[markm106]

Cameron well ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy could be a very good player if he gets back on track. But won't be a number 1 key forward. Needs a bigger target there.

 

[Russian Demon]

Cameron well ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy could be a very good player if he gets back on track. But won't be a number 1 key forward. Needs a bigger target there.

I think McCarthy did well when he got the 2nd or 3rd defender and could use good running patterns to get the marks/goals. I think he'd be ok in a run'n'gun side where the forward 50 is empty when the ball is coming in. But with a RTB game plan, i can't see that happening often enough.

I think he's a good player, even if i think he's a whingy tool.

 

[R_Grunter]

Yeah, McCarthy isn't half the forward Cameron is.. that's ridiculous. He only got a game because Patton did his knee twice

Excellent point. Fuqwit.