Analysis General Regression Anxiety thread

Jan 17, 2013
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Something that went through my mind during the GWS game when I saw Malceski playing forward was that perhaps Eade is tanking. Tanking to get a draft pick that he will use to play the Rodney Eade way, since he has inherited this list. Consider this, the Brisbane Lions finished last in 1998 and went on to become arguably the greatest team of all time with their triple premiership team. Ashcroft, Akermanis, Bradshaw, Black, Hart, Johnson, Keating, Lappin, Lynch, Leppitsch, Power, the Scotts and Voss were all there in 1998 when they received the wooden spoon. Lethal came in and shook the place up which ultimately lead to amazing success.

It's a glimmer of hope in what appears to be a dark time at the Suns. The addition of a top 3 draft pick could be just what the Suns need to catapult themselves into the finals in 2016. Add in a healthy Ablett and O'Meara and the team could be really dangerous. Dips in footy aren't as uncommon as some may think. Hawthorn missed the finals in 2009 after winning the flag in 2008 and now we've seen the success they've gone on to have. I guess what I'm saying is that it is likely Eade has a plan during this questionable period.
While I don't agree that Eade is deliberately tanking I do agree that with this years crop and a low selection you could get O'Meara/Wines contribution from a first year player. Which would be exactly what our team needs for depth.
 

Matchu

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While I don't agree that Eade is deliberately tanking I do agree that with this years crop and a low selection you could get O'Meara/Wines contribution from a first year player. Which would be exactly what our team needs for depth.
I wasn't necessarily accusing him of tanking. It was just something that popped into my mind when I saw the current All-Australian defender Nick Malceski playing forward. Eade has already pointed out he is not happy with the midfield depth so you'd have to presume he'd use the first pick on a midfielder this year and there is every chance he could draft a player with similar potential to O'Meara/Wines. I have a feeling he might look to trade a few players out as well.

Time will tell.
 
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shaqsuns

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Something that went through my mind during the GWS game when I saw Malceski playing forward was that perhaps Eade is tanking. Tanking to get a draft pick that he will use to play the Rodney Eade way, since he has inherited this list. Consider this, the Brisbane Lions finished last in 1998 and went on to become arguably the greatest team of all time with their triple premiership team. Ashcroft, Akermanis, Bradshaw, Black, Hart, Johnson, Keating, Lappin, Lynch, Leppitsch, Power, the Scotts and Voss were all there in 1998 when they received the wooden spoon. Lethal came in and shook the place up which ultimately lead to amazing success.

It's a glimmer of hope in what appears to be a dark time at the Suns. The addition of a top 3 draft pick could be just what the Suns need to catapult themselves into the finals in 2016. Add in a healthy Ablett and O'Meara and the team could be really dangerous. Dips in footy aren't as uncommon as some may think. Hawthorn missed the finals in 2009 after winning the flag in 2008 and now we've seen the success they've gone on to have. I guess what I'm saying is that it is likely Eade has a plan during this questionable period.
The exact thought came through my head when nicholls replaced tape in the wet......
 
Jun 14, 2014
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farrk the sky is falling the sky is falling
It's pretty reasonable to be disappointed. The expectations set have not been met; it was pretty obvious last year that there was an emerging expectation to make the top eight (honestly, that's the kind of expectation every club should have), and people had similar expectations about this year, or at least thought things would be progressing in some way to becoming more competitive. I don't think anybody expected us to have zero wins at this stage (considering three of the four losses are against Melbourne, St Kilda, and GWS, with the only 'reasonable' loss being against Geelong who aren't looking nearly as ferocious as prior years). It's a pretty big indictment on the Suns' development up to this point. This isn't really a criticism against Rodney Eade, but it does beg the question: what the hell were we doing before he became coach?

It's that realisation that we're further away from being a truly competitive side than expected.

It's pretty horrible to think your team's heading somewhere to then find out 'hey, things aren't as good as we thought, and we're in fact still stuck in developmental hell'. It's a bitter pill to swallow.

TL;DR version:

 

Matchu

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I remember reading an article from a while back in which an official from either Gold Coast or GWS stated how important it was to get the 2010/2011 draft picks right. The person being interviewed in the article was essentially saying this was crucial because those players would form the nucleus of a Premiership-winning team in the future. The Gold Coast were given picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 and 15 at the 2010 draft. This is what the Gold Coast did with those picks:
  • Pick 1 used to select David Swallow.
  • Pick 2 used to select Harley Bennell.
  • Pick 3 used to select Sam Day.
  • Pick 5 used to acquire Jared Brennan and Pick 10 (Daniel Gorringe).
  • Pick 7 used to select Josh Caddy.
  • Pick 9 used to select Dion Prestia.
  • Pick 11 used to select Tom Lynch.
  • Pick 13 used to select Seb Tape.
  • Pick 15 used to acquire future compo pick (Jarrod Garlett).
Let's be honest, how many of those picks have exuded the output you would expect from a pick taken that high? I think you could probably make a solid case for Tom Lynch and Dion Prestia to go higher but that's about it. Let's take a look at one of the recently re-done top 10 lists from the 2010 draft:
1. Luke Parker
2. Jack Darling
3. Dyson Heppell
4. Thomas Lynch
5. Tom Liberatore
6. Brodie Smith
7. Dion Prestia
8. Luke Dahlhaus
9. David Swallow
10. Jeremy McGovern
11. Harley Bennell
12. Jeremy Howe
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom McDonald
15. Michael Hibberd
This is just one example but you can see the general consensus is, that after five years, the Gold Coast made quite a few mistakes at the 2010 draft. Perhaps to further that point, GWS appear to have made less mistakes at the 2011 draft. They also had picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 and 15 as well as Mini Draft pick 1 and 2. This is what GWS did with those picks:
  • Pick 1 used to select Jonathan Patton.
  • Mini Pick 1 used to acquire Pick 4 (Will Hoskin-Elliott).
  • Pick 2 used to select Stephen Coniglio.
  • Mini Pick 2 used to acquire Pick 10 (Liam Sumner) and future compo pick (became Plowman).
  • Pick 3 used to select Dom Tyson.
  • Pick 5 used to select Matt Buntine.
  • Pick 7 used to select Nick Haynes.
  • Pick 9 used to select Adam Tomlinson.
  • Pick 11 used to select Toby Greene.
  • Pick 13 used to select Taylor Adams.
  • Pick 15 used to acquire Pick 14 (Devon Smith).
Did they make less mistakes? I would've thought (<- Experimental :D) so. Wingard is almost definitely the best player to come out of the 2011 draft class but GWS made the correct decision to not draft him when he told them in the interview that he would likely ask for a trade once his rookie contract expired. You could probably make the case that Coniglio, Hoskin-Elliott, Tyson, Greene and Smith all deserved to go top 10 in that draft class. Patton probably deserved to go top 10 as well, despite his knee issues. Obviously Tyson later asked for a trade to Melbourne but the Giants were able to use that situation to acquire Josh Kelly who has also been very good for GWS. The Gold Coast lost Caddy at the end of 2012 and they only managed to acquire Jack Leslie as a result...

Of course you're going to make mistakes when it comes to drafting but in this case the Giants appear to have made considerably less mistakes when compared to the Suns.
 
Aug 7, 2013
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I remember reading an article from a while back in which an official from either Gold Coast or GWS stated how important it was to get the 2010/2011 draft picks right. The person being interviewed in the article was essentially saying this was crucial because those players would form the nucleus of a Premiership-winning team in the future. The Gold Coast were given picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 and 15 at the 2010 draft. This is what the Gold Coast did with those picks:
  • Pick 1 used to select David Swallow.
  • Pick 2 used to select Harley Bennell.
  • Pick 3 used to select Sam Day.
  • Pick 5 used to acquire Jared Brennan and Pick 10 (Daniel Gorringe).
  • Pick 7 used to select Josh Caddy.
  • Pick 9 used to select Dion Prestia.
  • Pick 11 used to select Tom Lynch.
  • Pick 13 used to select Seb Tape.
  • Pick 15 used to acquire future compo pick (Jarrod Garlett).
Let's be honest, how many of those picks have exuded the output you would expect from a pick taken that high? I think you could probably make a solid case for Tom Lynch and Dion Prestia to go higher but that's about it. Let's take a look at one of the recently re-done top 10 lists from the 2010 draft:

This is just one example but you can see the general consensus is, that after five years, the Gold Coast made quite a few mistakes at the 2010 draft. Perhaps to further that point, GWS appear to have made less mistakes at the 2011 draft. They also had picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 and 15 as well as Mini Draft pick 1 and 2. This is what GWS did with those picks:
  • Pick 1 used to select Jonathan Patton.
  • Mini Pick 1 used to acquire Pick 4 (Will Hoskin-Elliott).
  • Pick 2 used to select Stephen Coniglio.
  • Mini Pick 2 used to acquire Pick 10 (Liam Sumner) and future compo pick (became Plowman).
  • Pick 3 used to select Dom Tyson.
  • Pick 5 used to select Matt Buntine.
  • Pick 7 used to select Nick Haynes.
  • Pick 9 used to select Adam Tomlinson.
  • Pick 11 used to select Toby Greene.
  • Pick 13 used to select Taylor Adams.
  • Pick 15 used to acquire Pick 14 (Devon Smith).
Did they make less mistakes? I would've thought (<- Experimental :D) so. Wingard is almost definitely the best player to come out of the 2011 draft class but GWS made the correct decision to not draft him when he told them in the interview that he would likely ask for a trade once his rookie contract expired. You could probably make the case that Coniglio, Hoskin-Elliott, Tyson, Greene and Smith all deserved to go top 10 in that draft class. Patton probably deserved to go top 10 as well, despite his knee issues. Obviously Tyson later asked for a trade to Melbourne but the Giants were able to use that situation to acquire Josh Kelly who has also been very good for GWS. The Gold Coast lost Caddy at the end of 2012 and they only managed to acquire Jack Leslie as a result...

Of course you're going to make mistakes when it comes to drafting but in this case the Giants appear to have made considerably less mistakes when compared to the Suns.
In 2010 Swallow, Bennell and Day were the top 3 mentioned by all clubs, not just us.
Apart from Heppell, Smith and Luke Parker, the other main players in the top 20 were Polec, Gaff & Isaac Smith. All outside players, yet we are criticized for picking too many of those types anyway. Luke Parker was overlooked by every club twice, because of injury concerns. We weren't the only ones.
GWS had 11 of the first 14 picks in 2011. We had 8 of the first 14 in 2010. Big help.
GWS have probably made less mistakes but they are big ones in my opinion. They picked O'Rourke and Plowman at 2 & 3. Stringer, Macrae, Wines and Mayes were overlooked by them, yet we hear nothing because they're winning.
In 2013 Josh Kelly went 2 & was dropped last week and hasn't set the world on fire. At 4 was Bontempelli.
It's fair to say the concessions allowed to GWS were a lot more generous than what we received, and this can mask mistakes. We never had 2 mini drafts & we certainly don't have 48 on our senior list at a time when we need them.
I don't think our drafting is the issue, it seems the issue has been once you arrive at the club.
 

Matchu

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In 2010 Swallow, Bennell and Day were the top 3 mentioned by all clubs, not just us.
Apart from Heppell, Smith and Luke Parker, the other main players in the top 20 were Polec, Gaff & Isaac Smith. All outside players, yet we are criticized for picking too many of those types anyway. Luke Parker was overlooked by every club twice, because of injury concerns. We weren't the only ones.
I was talking about how each club's picks have turned out. Lots of guys have been picked early in the draft and never end up setting the world on fire but it goes both ways. Should Tom Scully have gone number 1? No. Should Nick Riewoldt have gone number 1? Yes. I know it's hard to predict whether a player will kick on at that age but choosing to take a guy like Caddy ahead of Heppell has proven to be a disastrously bad decision.

GWS had 11 of the first 14 picks in 2011. We had 8 of the first 14 in 2010. Big help.
They traded into that situation. Gold Coast were able to (and did) trade so that's sort of a silly argument. The mini drafts were the big difference between the two clubs in terms of draft concessions but, as we all know, the Gold Coast ended up being the major beneficiaries of the mini drafts.

GWS have probably made less mistakes but they are big ones in my opinion. They picked O'Rourke and Plowman at 2 & 3. Stringer, Macrae, Wines and Mayes were overlooked by them, yet we hear nothing because they're winning.
In 2013 Josh Kelly went 2 & was dropped last week and hasn't set the world on fire. At 4 was Bontempelli.
You're mentioning situations that occurred outside of their main drafting year. The theory was the 2010 draft will provide the Gold Coast with its Premiership nucleus and the same for GWS in the 2011 draft.

It's fair to say the concessions allowed to GWS were a lot more generous than what we received, and this can mask mistakes. We never had 2 mini drafts & we certainly don't have 48 on our senior list at a time when we need them.
I don't think our drafting is the issue, it seems the issue has been once you arrive at the club.
Perhaps you're right. If it's an issue of club culture then that is probably far more concerning than a few drafting mistakes.
 

Stroppy

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One thing I like is that Clayton is consistently drafting big key position players (not pure ruckman as yet).
Day, Gorringe and Lynch in 2010.
Schade in 2011.
Leslie in 2013.
2MP in 2014.​
Add them to May, Rory, and Dixon as Zone Picks and the Suns have plenty of options, far more than most other clubs.

What I don't like is that a few of the draftees have not kicked on at all!

But if you don't have any good kpp then you are kidding yourself. You have to keep adding them until you have a few that are good enough. Still hoping that 1 or 2 of the above kick on and are showing improvement by the end of the year. Team is playing so woefully at the moment it is hard to tell!
 

Matchu

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Hey pacman, I saw your post in the Failing Queensland thread on the main board and thought I'd get you involved since you are also from the Gold Coast. I can only assume you've taken some interest in the Suns and at least watched some games. What do you think their issue is? Does it simply come down to injuries or is their a deeper issue from what you've seen?

Also, TARGETMAN is a mad Hawks supporter from the Gold Coast but often posts his opinion here so you shouldn't feel out of place. There are plenty of GC-based footy fans that don't necessarily support the Suns but, in my experiences, most have taken some interest in the Suns.
 

pacman

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Hey pacman, I saw your post in the Failing Queensland thread on the main board and thought I'd get you involved since you are also from the Gold Coast. I can only assume you've taken some interest in the Suns and at least watched some games. What do you think their issue is? Does it simply come down to injuries or is their a deeper issue from what you've seen?

Also, TARGETMAN is a mad Hawks supporter from the Gold Coast but often posts his opinion here so you shouldn't feel out of place. There are plenty of GC-based footy fans that don't necessarily support the Suns but, in my experiences, most have taken some interest in the Suns.
Alot of players had interupted pre seasons and surgery in the off season.
Still being young I think that has hurt alot the other question is what is going on behind closed doors.
Some players in this squad have all the talent in the world eg Harley Benell but seem to be going through the motions I think if he was at clubs like Port, Freo or Hawks he would be a totally different player.
 

TARGETMAN

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Alot of players had interupted pre seasons and surgery in the off season.
Still being young I think that has hurt alot the other question is what is going on behind closed doors.
Some players in this squad have all the talent in the world eg Harley Benell but seem to be going through the motions I think if he was at clubs like Port, Freo or Hawks he would be a totally different player.
I think it goes back to having respect in the badge. being a hawk is taking pride in the badge , making the team is respected and winning for the club is the honoured.
I feel the badge doesn't mean a great deal for some in the team. Looks like the SUNS needs a love fest,/ honesty session and start to build up a team of mates who will play for each other.
 

pacman

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I think it goes back to having respect in the badge. being a hawk is taking pride in the badge , making the team is respected and winning for the club is the honoured.
I feel the badge doesn't mean a great deal for some in the team. Looks like the SUNS needs a love fest,/ honesty session and start to build up a team of mates who will play for each other.
I wonder what Ablett gets away with at training it doesn't seem equal down there.
I'm not sure why they got Malceski on such big money and wonder whether that put some noses out of joint.
 

Matchu

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I wonder what Ablett gets away with at training it doesn't seem equal down there.
I'm not sure why they got Malceski on such big money and wonder whether that put some noses out of joint.
Could be on to something. I remember Guy McKenna on Open Mike saying there's nothing more unequal than the equal treatment of 42 blokes on an AFL list. The guys on AFL 360 yesterday said that quite a few of the players at the Suns were blasted on Monday and had their manhood questioned. That included Malceski.
 
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Could be on to something. I remember Guy McKenna on Open Mike saying there's nothing more unequal than the equal treatment of 42 blokes on an AFL list. The guys on AFL 360 yesterday said that quite a few of the players at the Suns were blasted on Monday and had their manhood questioned. That included Malceski.

I am a little concerned as to how this group would react to being "blasted" the stories you here are that this generation really struggle with that kind of in your face feedback. I suppose we have had a few weeks of the players having reviews and the post meeting " we didn't bring the effort " speeches from players only to see them do the same the following week . Perhaps Rocket has finally whacked them, then again if it was Robbo saying it, well..................it could be complete rubbish
 

Matchu

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I am a little concerned as to how this group would react to being "blasted" the stories you here are that this generation really struggle with that kind of in your face feedback. I suppose we have had a few weeks of the players having reviews and the post meeting " we didn't bring the effort " speeches from players only to see them do the same the following week . Perhaps Rocket has finally whacked them, then again if it was Robbo saying it, well..................it could be complete rubbish
I'm sure rocket is more than capable of delivering a scathing spray. Will the playing group react positively to it? We'll find out tomorrow. Didn't McKenna get a lot of heat for a spray he gave Harbrow towards the end of last season and it allegedly led to him "losing" the playing group? As always, time will tell but lots of AFL clubs have gone down the honesty session route before and have been successful as a result.
 

plastikman

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Rocket brought in 'Leading Teams' to the Western Buldogs .. though things got very ugly when Akermanis believed he was being vilified by the playing group. I wonder if he might try it here?
 

FavoriteSun

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Something to note, the attendance for these games are way down. Opening round we were on 36k at the MCG. Home opener, 29k. R3 in Geelong. R4 in Manuka. R5 at home we were on 33k, but round 6 at home we dropped to a staggering 24k. Can this drop be the brisbane factor with so many lions fans making the trip up vs. crows fans flying in? Not sure...
 

Experimental

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Something to note, the attendance for these games are way down. Opening round we were on 36k at the MCG. Home opener, 29k. R3 in Geelong. R4 in Manuka. R5 at home we were on 33k, but round 6 at home we dropped to a staggering 24k. Can this drop be the brisbane factor with so many lions fans making the trip up vs. crows fans flying in? Not sure...
I'm really confused. Where are you getting these numbers from?
 
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