Analysis General Regression Anxiety thread

[Stroppy]

It is tough to hear but I am loving the fact that the Suns have been getting dumped on by all and sundry. A lot of dirty laundry and bad habits coming to light which is the only way to fix them. We are out of the AFL spotlight up here in Queensland and it must be tempting to just keep doing what you are doing. Shake it up baby!!

We were rubbish in the first 4 games but get a pass mark for the last 2. I am confident that this can be turned around and much improved performances this season are possible, even likely.

Add in another hard off-season (with skills development!!!), more familiarity with Rocket's game plan and importantly better health (please please please....) and I expect all the doom and gloom of this year will fade. Less than a year away!!

But jeepers creepers this season looks horrendous given the ludicrous injury list and the draw. Very good chance that we can play well or even very well and still be 1 and 10 at the bye. Two super long road trips (Perth and Launceston) and three very tough home games against the Pies, Freo and Sydney. One and ten!!!

I just hope that we keep getting effort and we keep putting games into players who could be part of a finals team. Not fussed about the win total (6 or 7?) but improvement in the second half of the season a must.

 

[FavoriteSun]

I'm really confused. Where are you getting these numbers from?

There is a footy stats site...http://afltables.com/afl/afl_index.html

 

[Experimental]

Something to note, the attendance for these games are way down. Opening round we were on 36k at the MCG. Home opener, 29k. R3 in Geelong. R4 in Manuka. R5 at home we were on 33k, but round 6 at home we dropped to a staggering 24k. Can this drop be the brisbane factor with so many lions fans making the trip up vs. crows fans flying in? Not sure...

There is a footy stats site...http://afltables.com/afl/afl_index.html

Unless I'm misinterpreting what you're writing, our home opener wasn't 29k, it was 13k. Similarly, round five and six were 12k.

 

[Sunizzle]

Unless I'm misinterpreting what you're writing, our home opener wasn't 29k, it was 13k. Similarly, round five and six were 12k.

I'm not sure, but he may be talking about our running average for both home and away games.

 

[Experimental]

I'm not sure, but he may be talking about our running average for both home and away games.

I considered that, but rounds three and four were less than the average for rounds one and two, so the mean wouldn't have increased. Now I'm just confused haha.

 

[Matchu]

So everyone seems to think that GWS have gone past the Gold Coast and that has to do with better recruiting over the last few years. Now that I think about it, this may actually continue for quite a while. Look at this comparison between the lists in terms of finals experience:

Greater Western Sydney
Heath Shaw - 18
Ryan Griffen - 11
Shane Mumford - 10
Callan Ward - 6
Dylan Addison - 3
Joel Patfull - 2
Total: 50

Gold Coast
Gary Ablett Jr - 17
Nick Malceski - 17
Jarrod Harbrow - 9
Greg Broughton - 2
Michael Rischitelli - 2
Total: 47

So they are very similar in games experience but the difference is the age of the players. So let's just go based on the age each player is turning this year. At the Gold Coast you have Ablett (31), Malceski (31), Rischitelli (29), Broughton (29) and Harbrow (27). Greater Western Sydney have Patfull (31), Shaw (30), Mumford (29), Griffen (29), Addison (28), Ward (25). That's an average age of 29.4 for the Suns and 28.6 for the Giants. Although it doesn't seem like a lot, it could be massive in terms of taking full advantage while these guys are in their physical peak. The Suns' two most experienced finals players will both turn 32 in 2016. This is relevant because the Suns look very unlikely to play finals before 2016. The Giants look like a genuine chance for finals this year and their three most important players (Griffen, Mumford and Shaw) in terms of finals experience will all be 29 years old by the time September rolls around. Basically right in the middle of their physical peak. Callan Ward and Harbrow probably cancel each other out and the rest of the players don't have enough finals experience to make a huge difference.

The Giants appear to be better equipped for finals.

 

[Iva Bigun]

So everyone seems to think that GWS have gone past the Gold Coast and that has to do with better recruiting over the last few years. Now that I think about it, this may actually continue for quite a while. Look at this comparison between the lists in terms of finals experience:

Greater Western Sydney
Heath Shaw - 18
Ryan Griffen - 11
Shane Mumford - 10
Callan Ward - 6
Dylan Addison - 3
Joel Patfull - 2
Total: 50

Gold Coast
Gary Ablett Jr - 17
Nick Malceski - 17
Jarrod Harbrow - 9
Greg Broughton - 2
Michael Rischitelli - 2
Total: 47

So they are very similar in games experience but the difference is the age of the players. So let's just go based on the age each player is turning this year. At the Gold Coast you have Ablett (31), Malceski (31), Rischitelli (29), Broughton (29) and Harbrow (27). Greater Western Sydney have Patfull (31), Shaw (30), Mumford (29), Griffen (29), Addison (28), Ward (25). That's an average age of 29.4 for the Suns and 28.6 for the Giants. Although it doesn't seem like a lot, it could be massive in terms of taking full advantage while these guys are in their physical peak. The Suns' two most experienced finals players will both turn 32 in 2016. This is relevant because the Suns look very unlikely to play finals before 2016. The Giants look like a genuine chance for finals this year and their three most important players (Griffen, Mumford and Shaw) in terms of finals experience will all be 29 years old by the time September rolls around. Basically right in the middle of their physical peak. Callan Ward and Harbrow probably cancel each other out and the rest of the players don't have enough finals experience to make a huge difference.

The Giants appear to be better equipped for finals.

Malceski should of retired at 30

 

[Jarman94]

Can't believe what has happened to GC. GWS has gone past like a bullet train.
Was expecting GC to challenge for a top 4 spot this year and watching a few games, GC has totally lost its way. Look like rank amateurs.

My view from an outsider is "Rocket Ede" - wrong guy to take GC to the next level. He is too "wishy washy" and stands for nothing. Boring and talks a glass eye to sleep. Would not want him to coach my team.
Before everyone jumps on me, look at how GC is playing and where they are on the ladder. GC has gone backwards and now football rabble, when GC is really far better than that. Rocket did nothing at the Pies as they were poor last couple of years. Far better this year with him gone.

 

[TheSunGod]

Can't believe what has happened to GC. GWS has gone past like a bullet train.
Was expecting GC to challenge for a top 4 spot this year and watching a few games, GC has totally lost its way. Look like rank amateurs.

My view from an outsider is "Rocket Ede" - wrong guy to take GC to the next level. He is too "wishy washy" and stands for nothing. Boring and talks a glass eye to sleep. Would not want him to coach my team.
Before everyone jumps on me, look at how GC is playing and where they are on the ladder. GC has gone backwards and now football rabble, when GC is really far better than that. Rocket did nothing at the Pies as they were poor last couple of years. Far better this year with him gone.

 

[Sunizzle]

Can't believe what has happened to GC. GWS has gone past like a bullet train.
Was expecting GC to challenge for a top 4 spot this year and watching a few games, GC has totally lost its way. Look like rank amateurs.

My view from an outsider is "Rocket Ede" - wrong guy to take GC to the next level. He is too "wishy washy" and stands for nothing. Boring and talks a glass eye to sleep. Would not want him to coach my team.
Before everyone jumps on me, look at how GC is playing and where they are on the ladder. GC has gone backwards and now football rabble, when GC is really far better than that. Rocket did nothing at the Pies as they were poor last couple of years. Far better this year with him gone.

We have 10 of our best 15 players out, can't blame Rocket for that. You do that to any team and they will get smashed every week. We had a 2 gamer and a 3 gamer as our key tall defenders and we had one tall forward, and a few players playing with niggles because we only have 25 players to pick a 22 man squad from of which 6 of them are ruckman. And now Bennell looks to have done a Knee as well.

Ill apply the equivalent outs to your team

Mid
Fyfe = Ablett
Mundy = O'Meara
Neal = Swallow

Back
Johnson = Thompson
Mcpharlin = May
Ibbotson = Malceski
Spurr = Saad

Forward
Pavlich = Lynch
Walters = Martin
Ballentyne = Garlett

Then you have Day, Gorringe, Cameron and Tape who would be next in line for tall backs, not sure who they would be equivalent to.

Plus Eade wasn't in a coaching role at the Pies he was in admin. Had nothing to to do with what you are talking about.

 

[SandyToes]

Can't believe what has happened to GC. GWS has gone past like a bullet train.
Was expecting GC to challenge for a top 4 spot this year and watching a few games, GC has totally lost its way. Look like rank amateurs.

My view from an outsider is "Rocket Ede" - wrong guy to take GC to the next level. He is too "wishy washy" and stands for nothing. Boring and talks a glass eye to sleep. Would not want him to coach my team.
Before everyone jumps on me, look at how GC is playing and where they are on the ladder. GC has gone backwards and now football rabble, when GC is really far better than that. Rocket did nothing at the Pies as they were poor last couple of years. Far better this year with him gone.

 

[Matchu]

 

[vide0n]

Watching the game on Saturday I never really felt that we were 'abysmal', I can handle being where we are for now

 

[Matchu]

Watching the game on Saturday I never really felt that we were 'abysmal', I can handle being where we are for now

I agree. However, that game was far from indicative of their whole season. I think it really highlighted how important May is to the team these days. Lucky the club managed to re-sign him last year. He'd be getting some big money thrown his way if he was off contract this year.

 

[SandyToes]

We have upside !!
Keep it sunny guys

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

Can't believe what has happened to GC. GWS has gone past like a bullet train.
Was expecting GC to challenge for a top 4 spot this year and watching a few games, GC has totally lost its way. Look like rank amateurs.

My view from an outsider is "Rocket Ede" - wrong guy to take GC to the next level. He is too "wishy washy" and stands for nothing. Boring and talks a glass eye to sleep. Would not want him to coach my team.
Before everyone jumps on me, look at how GC is playing and where they are on the ladder. GC has gone backwards and now football rabble, when GC is really far better than that. Rocket did nothing at the Pies as they were poor last couple of years. Far better this year with him gone.

A year or so ago Fremantle played St kilda the week before the finals and left out 10 of their best players. No Fyfe, Mundy, Walters etc. Despite the new 10 players desperately keen to impress the coach and maybe keep their spot, they lost by 12 goals to a team that finished 16th. 220 less possessions and 40 less inside 50's. Wow what happened? Surely a team can cover 10 of your best missing.