Georgia Senate runoff

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Present Not Past said:
I'm just happy that there's no longer a complete imbecile in charge at the White House.
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So many likes, at least we know that the future us ambassador wont be a member of marlargo
I posted probably in thread 1?or 2 that trump got on the political train to get free publicity for trump inc , he convinced enough morons to win the Republican nominee , he then convinced more morons ( with some outside help) and became president. He then realised wtf , i have nfi of what to do but lets rip off the usa taxpayers and after nov 3 and losing the election, scam my cult fans for hundreds of millions more.. He is going down quicker than stormy daniels .he has 13 days to cause more grief and no doubt he will . Standby for more pardons , he needs a deflection after Georgia and this fiasco today
 
Sweet Jesus said:
Watch the Democrats learn the wrong lessons.

Watch them clear the field for Kamala Harris without a competitive primary, because "narrative", and then be surprised when it backfires.
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That is a concern, like the Hillary stage managed primaries, thought they could all circle jerk about how progressive they are, having a black guy then a female president.

In saying that, Harris won’t be facing the issues Hillary had:

- She was Hillary and not hugely popular, even with Democrats
- Complacent voter base who didn’t think Trump had a serious chance
- another 2-4 years working hard to get more and more people voting should help the dems even more, and embolden black people who can now see tangible evidence that their vote makes a difference
 
Blue1980 said:
That is a concern, like the Hillary stage managed primaries, thought they could all circle jerk about how progressive they are, having a black guy then a female president.
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Narrative.

Blue1980 said:
In saying that, Harris won’t be facing the issues Hillary had:

- She was Hillary and not hugely popular, even with Democrats
- Complacent voter base who didn’t think Trump had a serious chance
- another 2-4 years working hard to get more and more people voting should help the dems even more, and embolden black people who can now see tangible evidence that their vote makes a difference
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On the other hand, is there any evidence that Harris is a good campaigner? Her 2020 primary was a disaster and she was a non-factor after being named VP.

She might end up being the best candidate, assuming Biden doesn't seek re-election. But if they try to simply parachute her in as the anointed successor, they deserve to lose, particularly after 2016. Learn the lessons FFS.

If Biden doesn't seek re-election, there should be an open primary and there should be a full press to make sure Harris deserves the nomination. If not, get someone else.

If I'm being cynical, I reckon there are DNC consultants already eyeing off a Harris-Buttigieg 2024 ticket. Against some hideous Cronenburg swamp monster that emerges from the post-Trump miasma: Cruz, Haley, Hawley, Gaetz, Pompeo whatever.

And that's fine, provided there is a real primary. But don't clear the decks for the favourite candidate. That will likely end badly. I'll expound on this position at greater length.
 
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spinynorman said:
Everyone saying Republicans are done for the time being forget that was the line we were told in 2008.
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The RNC is in a much more precarious place now than in comparison to 2008.

They are bound to a family they can't afford to let go of, but at the same time is causing huge internal conflict.

They can certainly rebound. One thing conservative politics does - the world over - is deliver the message their adherents want to hear, and they deliver it on point.

2008 was always just going to be a slow rebuild requiring a bit of patience and discipline. Trumpism has a natural impetuousness to it that won't allow for a slow rebuild. It's a crash or crash through mentality. Whether Trump hangs around or not - and I predict he will for at least a little while to test the waters on a potential 2024 run - the MAGA crowd still be there and they will want to get on the front foot quickly within the power corridors of the RNC. The range of possibilities is huge - anything from getting straight back up and regaining the house and senate in 2022 to a complete conservative schism putting them in minority government till they reform.
 
The Passenger said:
The RNC is in a much more precarious place now than in comparison to 2008.
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According to my learned account of US politics, they have simply papered over the cracks that were evident back in 2008 i.e. the split between the establishment wing and the populist/grassroots wing. It's been growing ever wider since then. Trump forced those wings together by winning unexpectedly but now that rift is wide open for everyone to see. And now the party faces a moment of reckoning.

But it is not out of the question that they recover quickly and give it a real shake in 2024. Do not underestimate the incompetence of the Democrats.

The Passenger said:
2008 was always just going to be a slow rebuild requiring a bit of patience and discipline. Trumpism has a natural impetuousness to it that won't allow for a slow rebuild. It's a crash or crash through mentality. Whether Trump hangs around or not - and I predict he will for at least a little while to test the waters on a potential 2024 run - the MAGA crowd still be there and they will want to get on the front foot quickly within the power corridors of the RNC. The range of possibilities is huge - anything from getting straight back up and regaining the house and senate in 2022 to a complete conservative schism putting them in minority government till they reform.
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Harris-Buttigieg v Haley-Hawley in 2024?

Obviously this is completely speculative.

But I don't have enough faith in the Democrats to think that would be a done deal. Not even close. They could easily lose the WH in four years.
 
If Mitt Romney wants power, he should ditch the GOP and become an independent.

That would make him probably the second-most powerful person in US politics.

A safe senator from Utah, no longer beholden to the GOP, with a ton of goodwill from Democrats and an administration seeking "compromise".
 
Blue1980 said:
Also from 2008, by the time we hit 2024 we will have had 12 of 16 years of dems.
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Only in the White House. Republicans are always going to be overrepresented in the Senate because of its un-democractic construction and the House because of gerrymandering. So most of those years have had some form of split government, which makes getting stuff passed almost impossible these days.
 
melbournemartin said:
Only in the White House. Republicans are always going to be overrepresented in the Senate because of its un-democractic construction and the House because of gerrymandering. So most of those years have had some form of split government, which makes getting stuff passed almost impossible these days.
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These days?
 
Sweet Jesus said:
Narrative.

On the other hand, is there any evidence that Harris is a good campaigner? Her 2020 primary was a disaster and she was a non-factor after being named VP.

She might end up being the best candidate, assuming Biden doesn't seek re-election. But if they try to simply parachute her in as the anointed successor, they deserve to lose, particularly after 2016. Learn the lessons FFS.

If Biden doesn't seek re-election, there should be an open primary and there should be a full press to make sure Harris deserves the nomination. If not, get someone else.

If I'm being cynical, I reckon there are DNC consultants already eyeing off a Harris-Buttigieg 2024 ticket. Against some hideous Cronenburg swamp monster that emerges from the post-Trump miasma: Cruz, Haley, Hawley, Gaetz, Pompeo whatever.

And that's fine, provided there is a real primary. But don't clear the decks for the favourite candidate. That will likely end badly. I'll expound on this position at greater length.
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I agree with much of that, and hubris got the best of them in 2016, they’d be nuts to repeat the mistakes of then.

Have a proper primary, if an old white guy wins it, then so be it. Better to be in power with a candidate people actually want than a shoehorned pick which looks good for the progressive narrative.

Also I am not wholly convinced Trumpism works without trump.
 
melbournemartin said:
Only in the White House. Republicans are always going to be overrepresented in the Senate because of its un-democractic construction and the House because of gerrymandering. So most of those years have had some form of split government, which makes getting stuff passed almost impossible these days.
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Been this way since Gingrich era, 90s onwards really
 
Blue1980 said:
I agree with much of that, and hubris got the best of them in 2016, they’d be nuts to repeat the mistakes of then.
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That's putting it generously.

Blue1980 said:
Have a proper primary, if an old white guy wins it, then so be it. Better to be in power with a candidate people actually want than a shoehorned pick which looks good for the progressive narrative.
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I'm not sure who that old guy would be, looking at the field. But yes, she needs to be pressed in a primary. It's not yet clear that she can campaign to save herself.

I can see them doing the opposite. Putting her through four years of image consulting and fawning profiles, doing SFA and then parachuting her into the primaries and daring anyone to challenge. That would be a bad idea, IMO. Because you'll get an insurgent from the Bernie wing who'll jump up and bloody her nose unexpectedly. Rightly so.

It can't just be Kamala vs Martin O'Malley and everyone cheers her on the way through. That will backfire. But I can see them trying it.

Blue1980 said:
Also I am not wholly convinced Trumpism works without trump.
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Me neither. But they'll damn sure try it. They're lining up already. That's what will be fascinating to watch.

Josh Hawley is the one I watch. Too young to realistically run for president but he's the dangerous one. Haley-Hawley would plug most of the gaps left by Trump. They could sell that as "renewal" while still getting the blessing from King Donald.
 
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No way the MAGA cult takes to anyone after Trump the way they took to him. He is a "self made man" who is a celebrity who "isn't like those other politicians" and he drained the swamp etc etc,

Point being, any career politician who tries to fill the Trump void is seen as just that. A politician.
 
Blue1980 said:
That is a concern, like the Hillary stage managed primaries, thought they could all circle jerk about how progressive they are, having a black guy then a female president.

In saying that, Harris won’t be facing the issues Hillary had:

- She was Hillary and not hugely popular, even with Democrats
- Complacent voter base who didn’t think Trump had a serious chance
- another 2-4 years working hard to get more and more people voting should help the dems even more, and embolden black people who can now see tangible evidence that their vote makes a difference
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Hillary was far more popular then kamala harris. Did you not see how badly harris performed in the democratic primaries?
 
Aristotle Pickett said:
What a monumental disaster for the republicans.
Grass roots campaign and trump's sabotage won it.
This makes it easier to prosecute trump as well.
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I would love to see Donald Trump in prison. I suspect he has been committing various tax and corruption crimes every day for decades.
 
Blue1980 said:
They have 2 choices at this point, keep doubling down on Trumpism or move more to the centre.

Trump has allowed the fringe elements of the party out of the bag and now are in full view for all to see, you get qanon believers elected FFS.

Basically if you get enough turn out to future elections, the Trump incarnation of the GOP is done.
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I think 2010 to 2020 will be remembered as the decade in which (starting with the Tea Party and ending with Trump's first term) the Republicans lurched to the far right. The party is not done for by any means, but they will need to shift towards the centre if they want to be electorally competitive in the long term.

Winning the presidential race and probably the Senate races in a state like Georgia is the canary in the coal mine. Texas turning blue is not inevitable if the Republican party changes.
 
The Democrats have done it! Both races now called.

And to think that without Trump's ridiculous attempts to overturn the presidential election and the ridiculous split in the GOP between the Trump lapdogs and the rest, it's likely they would have retained the Senate. Now they've ****ed themselves.

Could not be more delicious. Eat a d*** you morons.
 
Rotayjay said:
I think 2010 to 2020 will be remembered as the decade in which (starting with the Tea Party and ending with Trump's first term) the Republicans lurched to the far right. The party is not done for by any means, but they will need to shift towards the centre if they want to be electorally competitive in the long term.

Winning the presidential race and probably the Senate races in a state like Georgia is the canary in the coal mine. Texas turning blue is not inevitable if the Republican party changes.
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Agree with all of that
 
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