Phantom Draft Getgaff 2022 Phantom Draft

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Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 30, 2010
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UPDATE 19/11/2022

The first 4 picks, I see the names as relatively safe with the only flexibility around where a bid for Will Ashcroft comes.

I'm not looking at any live trading.


PICK 1 – GWS: AARON CADMAN
POSITION: KEY FWD ~ CLUB: GREATER WESTERN VICTORIA / VC
DRAFT RANGE: 1 – 2


RATIONALE: There seems to be a clear direction from GWS on what way they want to go here. They've liked Cadman as the best key position player in the draft from a way out it seems and acted accordingly in trade period by acquiring pick 1 in the "mega trade" with North, Port, West Coast and themselves.

They haven't really gone key forward with their first round picks over the past few years and have been more midfield focused but they have their sights set on Cadman surely. Doesn't seem to be a go home factor with him either which is a big box to tick,

Cadman has a big game/ moment mentality and his draft stocks have risen sharply over the course of the season where now it’s very hard to see him going anywhere else but live pick 1. When a game is up for grabs, he wants the ball in his hands, has strong forward craft and marking ability and works hard on the lead to get separation.

The improvement in his game would be that his set shot goal kicking can let him down. Some games he has a dead eye radar where others his conversion rate was under 50 %. What is a given is that he generates a lot of scoring opportunities, whether that reflect straight away against men is to be seen.

IN THE MIX: A bid for Brisbane F/S Will Ashcroft


PICK 2 – BRISBANE F/S MATCH: WILL ASHCROFT
POSITION: MIDFIELDER ~ CLUB: SANDRINGHAM / VM
DRAFT RANGE: 1 – 2


TO MATCH BRISBANE NEED TO USE THEIR 4 X CURRENT 2ND ROUND PICKS 34, 35, 36, 38 - Points surplus of pick 38 is 17 points or equivalent to pick 73

RATIONALE: Power Ranking wise is the deserved number one but I’m not a believer that GWS have gone up the draft board to get a bid in. Given that at least one of the live picks to North will be used on a midfielder the bid does make much more sense here.

I see him fulfilling an immediate role for the Lions on a wing like Carlton did with Sam Walsh in his debut year with a strong balance between winning it inside and spreading to the outside at all levels.

Some concerns currently over his role versatility where I’m sure that with personal high standards that he would like to add that extra forward or back strength to his game, however he has shown in his midfield game that he can hit the scoreboard from midfield range.

IN THE MIX: NA


PICK 3 – NORTH MELBOURNE: GEORGE WARDLAW
POSITION: MIDFIELDER CLUB: ~ OAKLEIGH / VM
DRAFT RANGE: TOP 5


RATIONALE: Sheezel/ Wardlaw, Wardlaw/ Sheezel. Whichever order I'm fairly confident that these two guys will be called out by North with the back-to-back picks.

Wardlaw would be a great get for North at 3 given the loss of a quality power mid in Horne Francis and although George had a limited season in 2022, he showed his strong characteristics and big game mentality earlier in the year taking home the Presidents Medal in the Academy game.

His game is built around competitive instinct and physicality around the contest, bringing his teammates into the game powering his way out of traffic wball in hand through explosive speed. Works hard both offensively and defensively in the contest to again highlight that competitiveness.

Limited exposure to other roles means that he does seem somewhat pigeonholed to a high quality inside midfielder now, but with working on his endurance base that will come out more as well. That can affect his accumulation numbers also as he hasn’t accumulated like Ashcroft has.

IN THE MIX: Harry Sheezel, Elijah Tsatas


PICK 4 - NORTH MELBOURNE: HARRY SHEEZEL
POSITION: MEDIUM / GENERAL FWD ~ CLUB: SANDRINGHAM / VM
DRAFT RANGE: TOP 5


RATIONALE: Footy smarts, great skill set and a really balanced link up with Wardlaw. He is a player who belongs in my “Fab Five” with the other 2, Wardlaw and Tsatas.

Naturally gifted with terrific forward craft who would strike more as a damaging forward initially with the ability to play midfield but that can be developed further in time if required to add it further to his game. For a forward his size is also a strong overhead mark, uses his smarts to break off his opponent well, use his skills at ground level and both sides of the body.

As a specific general forward at AFL level how he copes with greater attention will be interesting to see as defenders will be trying their best to off put him.

The consistency of midfield craft is still an area of improvement also but early days particularly coupled with a Wardlaw/ Tsatas pick that need won’t be as great and would be more seen as a way to potentially get him involved in the game in other ways.

IN THE MIX: George Wardlaw, Elijah Tsatas


PICK 5 – ESSENDON: ELIJAH TSATAS
POSITION: BALANCED MID ~ CLUB: OAKLEIGH / VM
DRAFT RANGE: 3 - 7 (wouldn't last past Hawthorn's pick you'd think)


RATIONALE: Ideally, he would have a stronger defensive element to this game to make him seem like a lock for Essendon but is regarded as the best loose ball winning talent of the draft and worthy of the “Fab Five power ranking grouping.”

His natural game of spread and speed from the stoppage is his bread-and-butter and he is hard to stop at pace while taking the ball cleanly in traffic. That combination of Wardlaw/ Tsatas at Oakleigh has been able to highlight those strengths with a fierce inside competitor like Wardlaw feeding him.

Efficiency wise he is skilled by hand and opens the game up there but lacks penetration by foot relying more on his ability make the right decision and kick to his teammates advantage side. The other improvement area would be defensive game where his tackle numbers are from m desirable, however play him to his strengths early and he will deliver for you.

Think all 3 of Tsatas, Bailey Humphrey and Mattaes Phillipou all have weapons to their game that Essendon would love to bring in. They can't go wrong with any of those 3 here I think. The other option is through the dependable Jhye Clark if you wanted consistency and the peace of mind of what you're getting game in, game out, without the spark and spunk of the other 3 mentioned.

IN THE MIX: Bailey Humphrey, Mattaes Phillipou, Jhye Clark


PICK 6 – GOLD COAST: BAILEY HUMPHREY
POSITION: MID / FWD ~ CLUB: GIPPSLAND / VC
DRAFT RANGE: TOP 10


If they had the capacity to reach for a player here I really would like Jedd Busslinger to fill a younger key defensive need but given they are likely taking a max of 2 ND picks I’ve gone with the explosive and dynamic pick in Humphrey.

I do love the upside in Philipou, with his later birthday adding to that element of upside and excitement in Mattaes and for a team with more picks available they could go with the high upside pick.


RATIONALE: A powerful body who thrives in the contest than is damaging forward of centre, his stocks have risen sharply in his draft year to now be a position where he seems certain to be inside the top 10 picks on the night.

His explosive speed makes for an entertaining package, but he does not solely rely on that to burst to get by with a hard edge defensively to his game also. Adding to that package Is his ability to move the ball from the midfield to deep inside 50 with a penetrating kick.

In terms of forward craft, it is an area that he has worked hard at, his finishing and polish can still do with some refining but he will get to the right places and with his height and strength makes him a hard match up, holding his ground to mark in a contest against taller defenders and reading the play like a medium forward showing high talent and x factor.

Given the explosive nature to his game the endurance and outside game and polishhas taken a hit but with some work there would make him an unstoppable product and hopefully someone that can invest into the GC lifestyle long term. Being a Vic Country product probably adds to the appeal of him even more.

In the mix I’ve included Ginbey because the mail is that there is some genuine interest from the Suns and Clark like I said with Essendon a rolled gold inside mid with character and leadership in spades. Philipou’s upside is huge as I mentioned also

IN THE MIX: Reuben Ginbey, Jhye Clark, Mattaes Phillipou.


PICK 7 – HAWTHORN
: JHYE CLARK
POSITION: INSIDE MIDFIELDER ~ CLUB: GEELONG FALCONS / VC
DRAFT RANGE: 4 - 8


UPDATE FROM 12/11/22 WHERE I HAD CAMERON MACKENZIE TO HAWTHORN

My first positional change (apart from the Wardlaw/ Sheezel combo) from the initial drop a couple of weekends ago where I had Cam Mackenzie to the Hawks. My feeling is that the Hawks can't go to wrong here with some really strong midfielder options here in Clark, Mackenzie and Mattaes Phillipou, all who appear to be high in the Hawks thinking.

For something a bit different and if they were to orchestrate a trade down the board to the 15 - 25 region while bringing another 2nd or 3rd round pick in I like Jefferson as a taller forward.


RATIONALE: Clark is not just a sound selection on field, but off the field he is a strong leader, a definite future captain candidate and a key cog to the youthful Hawks midfield they are looking to build into given the recent trades of regular best 22 midfielders Mitchell and O'Meara.

Has polished skills without being elite, he will bring some class and ball winning ability on either side and when played to his strengths will feed the outside well.

Does lack that explosive clearance breaking element to his game and more of a disher but is a plug in and play inside mid option.

IN THE MIX: Cameron Mackenzie, Mattaes Phillipou, Elijah Tsatas


PICK 8 – GEELONG: REUBEN GINBEY
POSITION: DEF / MID ~ CLUB: EAST PERTH / WA

DRAFT RANGE: TOP 10

UPDATE FROM 12/11/2022 WHERE I HAD JHYE CLARK TO GEELONG


With Clark going up from the Cats at 8 to the Hawks at 7 it probably takes away the Cats most preferred draftable player in Clark. If you trust the experts advice than it seems the Cats are also very keen into Ginbey with his powerful body, senior exposure at WAFL senior level with East Perth in 2022 and ability to play within dual roles.

Mids, speed and local products is the ideal draft for West Coast who do lack that quality young midfield depth.

I wasn’t impressed initially with the pick split from live pick 2 to 9 and 13, with bids, but am understanding of the rationale more so now, given the relative evenness after pick 5 and the ability to bring two players in instead of one.

I’m a big fan of the upside in Philipou also but Ginbey is the right way to go with out first pick if available, given he is the local product and less likely to be on the board when pick 13 arrives, if Philipou is available at 13 I’d jump at him there over Elijah Hewett personally.


RATIONALE: Ginbey is a player well suited to the modern game in terms of his size, explosive speed and powerful game style and I don’t think there would be hesitation in throwing him in early in 2023 if they weren't coming off the back of a premiership with a fairly settled team.

The midfield string came to the fore mostly during the Under 18 Champs where he showed his worth at ground level as a bigger body at the clearances and his core strength to stand up in tackles.

As damaging as the kick is penetration like a common trait of other young inside midfielders that does need ironing out is tidying up the kick.

IN THE MIX: Jhye Clark (lock it in if he is on the board I think), Cameron Mackenzie.


PICK 9 – WEST COAST: MATTAES PHILIPOU
POSITION: MID / FWD ~ CLUB: WOODVILLE WEST TORRENS / SA

DRAFT RANGE: 5 - 15

UPDATE FROM 12/11/2022 WHERE I HAD REUBEN GINBEY TO WEST COAST


I think between Ginbey, Clark, Mackenzie and Phillipou that West Coast can't go too wrong with either of those 4 here and if they can, however unlikely, nab 2 of them inside the first 12 live picks the Eagles fans should be extremely happy and excited about the rebuild that will happen.

In terms of Phillipou I love the upside that he will bring in to his chosen club, heightened by the fact that he is only just eligible for the 2022 draft also due to a later December birthday.


RATIONALE: Played largely through the midfield in juniors with his clean hands a highlight but added the extra string to his game as a forward in his underage 18s year (2021) again showcasing his aerial and marking capacity closer to goal and getting some exposure at SANFL Reserves level for WWT in 2022.

The key area of improvement particularly when inside is his field kicking but given the nature of the inside role it doesn’t lend to consistency and precision field kicking.

IN THE MIX: Reuben Ginbey, Cameron Mackzenzie, Jhye Clark and Elijah Tsatas (highly unlikely but let a man dream)


PICK 10 – ST. KILDA: CAMERON MACKENZIE
POSITION: MIDFIELDER ~ CLUB: SANDRINGHAM / VM
DRAFT RANGE: TOP 10


UPDATE FROM 12/11/2022 WHERE I HAD MATTAES PHILLIPOU TO ST. KILDA

RATIONALE: An ideal draft for the Saints would see NGA player Cam Mackenzie being available here given that he won't be available after pick 40 where a bid can be matched.

There are a few different areas of needs for improvement and depth at the Saints however what Mackenzie brings is midfield balance where he works hard on the inside than is able to evade and create separation from a stoppage. His ability to weight his kicks brilliantly also makes him stand out, rarely over penetrating a kick to force a teammate into breaking stride.

Can be a little inconsistent within games which is a roll effect from the work he can do on his outside game.

IN THE MIX: The ones in the mix that I like and if they happen to slide starts with Bailey Humphrey who would be a terrific get for the Saints, you've got someone like Phillipou as well if available.

From the next bracket of picks (11 - 15) I like the idea of Jefferson as a tall forward supporting for Max King here. From a midfield perspective I think they'd look at Oliver Hollands and Elijah Hewett. Down the back half I think Busslinger would be a handy pick up for the Saints also.
 
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END OF FIRST ROUND RESERVED - PICK 11 ONWARDS
UPDATED 19/11

PICK 11 – CARLTON: JEDD BUSSLINGER
POSITION: KEY DEFENDER ~ CLUB: EAST PERTH / WA
DRAFT RANGE: 5 – 15

Oliver Hollands seems to be all the rage here for the Blues which would be a great selection as a hard running and balanced midfielder who Carlton could lock onto a wing role for a long time.

I'm going to back myself in and continue with Busslinger here as much as the experts don't seem to be linking him to Carlton and will look at a midifleder through the second or even third round where a player like Jaxon Binns (AA team of the carnival on a wing don't forget) or one of the smaller draftees who slides like a Harvey Gallagher or Blake Drury.


RATIONALE: If Busslinger happened to be available to Carlton here I don’t see a lot of time being wasted with the opportunity to add in a high-quality key defender to pair with Weitering given they seem to have the key forward posts locked in with McKay and Curnow on long term deals.

The leading tall defender heading into the season, and still seems to be holding that mantle despite missing the second half of the year due to shoulder surgery. Complements his ability to accumulate and intercepting power by amking sound decisions with ball in hand and is rarely rushed in disposal.

The key improvement to his game will be working harder back on the rebound to his opponent should they be looked at as an option heading forward and adding the size required to physically match with power forwards.

IN THE MIX: Oliver Hollands seems to be the one attracting most interest for Carlton


PICK 12 – WESTERN BULLDOGS: OLIVER HOLLANDS
POSITION: BALANCED MID ~ CLUB: MURRAY / VC
DRAFT RANGE: 10 – 20 (end of first round)


NO CHANGE FROM LAST UPDATE ON 12/11 HERE.

RATIONALE: If Busslinger happened to be available for the Bulldogs he would be a handy addition for their longer term key defensive stocks.

Reliable and balanced in his midfield approach, Hollands standout trait is his endurance base and versatility in his role to be able to contribute in and out of the contest, the next step up from NAB League and Champs level to playing against men may test him inside but he has held his own in the role against his own age group.

That endurance and ability to win the ball outside lend to thinking a wing role could become his early and there may be options there given the departure of Lachie Hunter.

The key improvement to his game will come with adding more size and getting greater exposure against bigger bodies as he can get pushed off the ball too comfortably, particularly around stoppages.

IN THE MIX: They’ve got Bontempelli MKII potentially available in Philipou in that top 15 mix also and given the romance of his dad having played some AFL games for Footscray it would be a nice touch. Whether it’s a list need is another question. The experts tend to believe that Ed Allan is an option here for the Bulldogs as a taller midfield option and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see bids start to come here for Jaspa Fletcher


PICK 13 – WEST COAST: ELIJAH HEWETT
POSITION: MID / FWD ~ CLUB: SWAN DISTRICTS / WA
DRAFT RANGE: 9 – 20 (end first round)


NO CHANGE FROM LAST UPDATE ON 12/11 HERE.

Don’t think West Coast could go wrong with midfield options like Hewett, Oliver Hollands possible, Oliver Hotton, Jaspa Fletcher (bid) and Ed Allan who seems to be firming in that 11 - 20 bracket. More than likely all those options won't be available come our early second round pick in the low 20's. If I was to rank those 5 in preference and ability to impact quickly there isn't a huge separation in there with all bring weapons to the table.

I've gone for Hewett but particularly within Hollands, Hotton and Hewett West Coast can't be worried in this second pick. A left of field pick who seems to be in the mix is also Matt Jefferson as that longer term JJK.


RATIONALE: Strongly meets a need for West Coast here with his mix of speed and endurance a key take away.

Mixes an explosive inside and contested game with the endurance and work rate further up the ground where with his size creates a difficult match up in the forward half.

The luxury of playing regular senior or reserves WAFL footy was highlighted in his draft year as well and when he made the step up to the higher grades did not look out of place.

The improvement area in his game would be the finishing skills by foot, which comes with the explosive nature of his game however the scoring opportunities it creates is greater also.


PICK 14 – MELBOURNE: MATTHEW JEFFERSON
POSITION: KEY FWD ~ CLUB: OAKLEIGH / VM
DRAFT RANGE: 10 – 20 (end of first round, could reach as high as Hawthorn’s 7 however)


NO CHANGE FROM LAST UPDATE ON 12/11 HERE.

RATIONALE: The height and forward capabilities of Jefferson and if available Philipou would be very enticing to the Demons here given the age profile in there young key position stocks is low. The other one that could see a small kicker up from his projected draft capacity I think here is Konstanty.

Rationale for Konstanty being the recent trade loss of Bedford, and the somewhat unsettlement of Pickett being in Victoria the opportunity to bring in the premier small forward of the draft would have Demons fans and recruiters excited.

Not a noted high production player which is expected but he makes things happen with only a few chances through strong forward craft and the ability to read the flight of the ball well to dominate the air and pluck a mark.


PICK 15 – SYDNEY: EDWARD ALLAN
POSITION: BALANCED MID ~ CLUB: CLAREMONT / WA
DRAFT RANGE: 11 - 21 (GWS's first pick of the second round)


UPDATE FROM 12/11/2022 WHERE I HAD HENRY HUSTWAITE TO SYDNEY


RATIONALE: Bit of a change here from my previous Henry Hustwaite where it seems in terms of taller and potential for filling out to bigger bodied mids that Allan is more the preferred option among recruiters given his flexibility to play both in and out, his strong testing at the combine and athletic traits that showed there.

In terms of his inside midfield craft he gets through traffic with speed to create time and space for himself and has shown a great capacity to use the ball well on both sides of the body. Either Allan or Hustwaite would be viewed long term as a JPK midfielder.

IN THE MIX: Henry Hustwaite - Sydney looking largely for a taller and bigger bodied inside mid here, Olli Hotton as a smaller but balanced midfielder, Harry Barnett given there is a strong chance Collingwood may strike on the best ruck in the draft pool at 17


PICK 16 – GWS: JACOB KONSTANTY
POSITION: SMALL FWD ~ CLUB: GIPPSLAND / VC
DRAFT RANGE: 14 – 21 (Similar range to Hustwaite, can’t see him lasting longer than GWS’s 4th pick if available)


NO CHANGE FROM 12/11/2022 UPDATE HERE

RATIONALE: GWS are back in and do hold a suite of picks between this one and the start of the second round given the collection of picks for losing Taranto to Richmond, Bruhn to the Cats and a picks trade with Brisbane.

Given what they’ve lost during the off season and what has been brought in already through a trade with Melbourne for Toby Bedford the need for a small forward may not be an immediate need but looking into the future a high-end small forward would be a luxury.

The best small forward of the draft and having linked up with Cadman through Vic Country squads the balance of forward craft between the tall and the small will make an electric mix. What Konstanty brings is natural forward craft and goal sense who works hard defensively and offensively.

IN THE MIX: If Hustwaite is available as that taller midfielder who with added size can develop even quicker he would be hard to bypass for the Giants also.


PICK 17 – COLLINGWOOD: HARRY BARNETT
POSITION: RUCK ~ CLUB: WEST ADELAIDE / SA

DRAFT RANGE: 15 - 21 (West Coast's first 2nd round pick, fingers crossed he lasts)

UPDATE FROM 12/11/2022 WHERE I HAD LEWIS HAYES TO COLLINGWOOD


RATIONALE: I’ve got Collingwood looking at extra KPP and ruck options early in their draft hand and with a few clubs in the mix for Barnett between Collingwood's live pick 16 and there next pick I've ticked the ruck box firstly rather than holding on my initial thought of Hayes who could land with their second pick otherwise there will be an option of Weddle, Gruzewski or a bid on Michalanney.

The Magpies didn't directly target a ruck to replace Brodie Grundy in the trade period, though McStay showed with Brisbane his capacity as a second ruck and Frampton has the height of a ruck (see him more as a Jordan Roughead taller full back) but behind Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox as ruck options, i see Krueger more as a forward/ pinch hit ruck, their is probably only the developing Aiden Begg it seems.

Like all young rucks it will be about giving him time to refine his body in the seconds but has shown the physicality to his ruck craft to be able to impact early against men and within a few seasons he would replace Cameron.

IN THE MIX: Lewis Hayes, Isaac Keeler, Jedd Busslinger (if available)


PICK 18 – SYDNEY: OLIVER HOTTON
POSITION: MID / FWD ~ CLUB: SANDRINGAM / VM
DRAFT RANGE: 12 – 22 (With bids as well I don’t think he would last longer than West Coast's initial second round pick)


UPDATE FROM 12/11/2022 WHERE I HAD ISAAC KEELER TO SYDNEY

RATIONALE: Sydney are back here and I've backed in my gut feel for the Swans and to balance Ed Allan with Oliver Hotton.

Given they are not back into the draft until the third round I very closely considered a tall with Harry Barnett as a ruck option and the fwd/ ruck of Isaac Keeler but given Collingwood has jumped the gun on Barnett, depending on the needs the addition of Barnett could happen at 15 and Allan, Hustwaite, Hotton being more so a # 18 pick.


PICK 19 – BRISBANE ACADEMY MATCH: JASPA FLETCHER
POSITION: BALANCED MID ~ CLUB: SHERWOOD & BRISBANE LIONS ACADEMY / ALLIES
DRAFT RANGE: 15 – 27 (Few different bid options between Sydney’s 15 and Hawthorn’s 24 with bids also taken into account)


NO CHANGE FROM 12/11/2022 UPDATE HERE

TO MATCH BRISBANE NEED TO USE PICKS 53, 71, 73 (PTS GAINED AFTER ASHCROFT MATCH). I'VE CALCULATED A 2023 DEFICIT AT 480 POINTS

RATIONALE: Fletcher has flown under the radar given Ashcroft is the other biddable player for the Lions 2023 draft.

Recently come out that he will be selected as a Lions Academy product rather than the father/ son option given the amount of games that father Adrian played at Brisbane. You get the feeling through pre-draft talk that flying under the radar would have been a role he would have loved but and is a humble person.

Fletcher has the traits to fill the wing role for years to come here, a little different to Ashcroft who may start more outside before working more inside later but Jaspa has worked harder to become a more balanced mid in his draft year.

The versatility in his game in that he can go in or outside mid and uses the ball with efficiency on the outside. His lack of body size may result in a weakness against hardened bodies in the contest at AFL level and that lack of role veraatilkity in that he won’t hot the scoreboard as regularly as Ashcroft does.


PICK 20 – GWS: HENRY HUSTWAITE
POSITION: DEF / MID ~ CLUB: DANDENONG / VC
DRAFT RANGE: 15 – 21 (Can’t see him lasting longer than GWS’s 4th pick as it stands)


UPDATE FROM 12/11/2022 WHERE I HAD JOSH WEDDLE OR OLIVER HOTTON TO GWS

RATIONALE: The Giants end night one here and also begin day two as it currently stands. They've filled their boots forward initially with Cadman and Konstanty, now given the loss of Tarranto and Hopper in the trade period a more contested/ bigger bodied midifleder would be an ideal selection here before a Harry Rowston bid match comes in.

The growth spurt of Hustwaite in his draft year makes him a unique midfielder where he can be deployed as a taller defender also. He moves through traffic well and shows great composure while going at a high percentage disposal rate by foot.

IN THE MIX: They've hit the forward line early and my feeling is that given Phil Davis and Lachie Keefe are nearing the end that the KLevin Sheedy Medalist from 2022 Sam Taylor needs a long term partner in the other key defensive post. Whether that's where the Gaints go back to back with talls in Weddle and Hayes or a defender at pick 20 than a midfielder or rebounding defender like Lachie Cowan with the first pick of the second night.

GWS have been linked to Brayden George also whose midfield power would be a valuable addition once fit again, maybe come 2024.
 
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PICK 21 - GWS: Lewis Hayes / KEY DEF / EASTERN / VM
RATIONALE: Partner with Taylor long term, GWS concentrate on the book ends of the field alonmg with Konstanty as the Bobby Hill type and Hustwaite in the middle.

PICK 22 - WEST COAST: Coby Burgiel / MID - FWD / GIPPSLAND / VC
RATIONALE: Bringing more speed in with Burgiel. A fraction too early for Darcy Jones and biting the bullet that he is still available in a few picks time.

PICK 23 - WESTERN BULLDOGS: Josh Weddle / KEY - TALL DEF / OAKLEIGH / VM
RATIONALE: Extra height and versatility down back is what I'm looking at here. Charlie Clarke is well in the Bulldogs thoughts here if you listen to the talk and wouldn't be a bad fit. Clarke not a direct like for like with Dunkley but similar attributes in the contested midfield / forward space.

PICK 24 - GWS ACADEMY BID MATCH: Harry Rowston / INSIDE MID / CALDER / ALLIES
RATIONALE: The biggest concern for GWS is making sure that any bid on Rowston comes after their early second round pick. He will attract a second-round bid which the Giants will be comfortable matching after that point. If the Swans were to bid early with one of their two later first round picks it would make thigs interesting.

PICK 25 - ESSENDON: Brayden George / GEN FWD / VC Capacity for future midfield
RATIONALE: Looking at it from a best available pick given the Davey bid will come shortly and with their current picks eating up a bid they may not make it back into the draft unless it's a match for Jayden Davey later. We all know the George story, won't play much if any senior footy at state league or AFL level in 2023 due to a knee reconstruction. Given they bypassed Humphrey early the may get a similar explosive forward in George who when back into feeling right in his body could transition into the midfield with his power.

PICK 26 - NORTH MELBOURNE: Lachlan Cowan / GEN DEF / TASSMANIA DEVILA / ALLIES Capacity for future midfield development
RATIONALE: Given they've gone midfield and forward at the front end of the draft i would have strongly considered Weddle here if available but instead settled on the best available rank with the dual position and potential lock into a wing in the future with Cowan. Lomg term i'm sure Sheezel would love the ball coming inside 50 from Cowan.

PICK 27 - ESSENDON F/S: Alwyn Davey Jr / FWD - MID / OAKLEIGH / VM
RATIONALE: Probably as late as the bid comes in for Davey to be honest and North might even do it at 26. Come draft night it's just a matter of crossing fingers for the bid to fall outside of their second pick or trading that for multiple picks to gain points.

PICK 28 - HAWTHORN: Jakob Ryan / GEN DEF / GLENELG / SA
RATIONALE: Hawks seem to be increasingly interested in Ryan with his ability to read the play and carry from the backline. Ticks the strong character box like Clark also.

PICK 29 - ADELAIDE F/S BID MATCH: Max Michallaney / GEN - TALL DEF / NORWOOD / SA
RATIONALE: Crows have commited to Michallaney under the F/S rule through his Dad having played the required amount of SANFL footy with the bid expected to fall in the second round potentially as early as the Bulldogs or as far down as the Saints.

The Crows completed a trade shortly before announcing Max as a father son prospect so have armed themselves with points to take later pick/s also along with the elevation of Butts and Strachan.

In terms of his game style, I wouldn't imagine him being a KPD at senior level but being a very effective third tall back in the future.

PICK 30 - COLLINGWOOD: Max Gruzewski / TALL DEF - FWD / Oakleigh / VM
RATIONALE: I considered an early crack at Van Es given he is more key position size than Gruzewski but Max brings great qualities at either end as a tall. Continuing with the tall focus at Collingwood early after getting Harry Barnett earlier.

PICK 31 - WEST COAST: Darcy Jones / MIDFIELDER / SWANS / WA
RATIONALE: Pleased with this hail early if it falls into place. I am really keen on Barnett with our first second round pick and hope that boldness prevails if he is still available, but you can't write out that it won't. Also feels increasingly like he won't be on the board either with Sydney and Collingwood lurking later first round.

Back on Jones but and although he is still quite lightly framed, he plays to his strengths very well and to team him up alongside Swans team mate Hewett will be a good thing. Look forward to seeing a lot of vision of him in the weights room.

PICK 32 - COLLINGWOOD: Isaac Keeler / RUCK - FWD / NORTH ADELAIDE / SA
RATIONALE: Potentially the end of looking at height for Collingwood unless they can find a future Jeremy Howe later in the play. Patience will be the key here for the Magpies. Highly skilled and can do freakish things around the ground with his athleticism, mobility and upside but he will need time to develop into his body as the physicality element is not there yet. As a ruck / fwd option has the most upside of those types in the draft I think.

PICK 33 - ST. KILDA: Harry Lemmey / KEY FWD / WEST ADELAIDE / SA
RATIONALE: Having missed Jefferson earlier in the draft I went searching for a tall forward here and figured next best available is Lemmey. Player who was ranked very highly leading into the season given his bottom age SANFL year where he played senior SANFL as a 17 year old but has struggled with consistency and role in 2022 at Westies. If he can get back to his 2021 form and competitiveness with a solidified role he is potentially an absolute bargain at 33 for the Saints

PICK 34 - CARLTON: Charlie Clarke / MID - FWD / SANDRINGHAM / VM
RATIONALE: Not necessarily filling a need here for Carlton but someone that has genuine interest from clubs with picks in the later first and early second rounds. Too good to pass up here for Carlton.

PICK 35 - FREMANTLE: Kaleb Smith / GEN DEF / EAST FREMANTLE / WA
RATIONALE: Welcome Fremantle to the party who enter here after losing their first-round pick with the Luke Jackson trade. Wouldn't surprise me to see them search for another depth ruckman later in the draft where they may get a look at Jackson Broadbent or even a Hamish Free who had a career best season in the WAFL after the retirement of Brock Higgins.

Smith had an injury interrupted year at East Fremantle but will bring speed and dare in transition to the Dockers. The others in the mix are still local lads in Jed Hagan from East Fremantle and Sam Gilbey from Claremont but the Dockers are back in the draft early in the third round with back-to-back picks than may bring in some NGA talls in Josh Draper from Peel and Jasper Scaife from West Perth.

PICK 36 - ST. KILDA: Tom McCallum / TALL DEF / TASMANIA DEVILS / ALLIES
RATIONALE: Strongly considered more key defenders in James Van Es or Ethan Phillips here for the Saints but ended up going with McCallum who hasn't come with the wraps that the likes of Weddle, Michallaney and Gruzewski have but is still a very capable tall option down back having locked away Lemmey as the tall forward a few picks ago.

Seems the Saints may only be taking three picks in going off the article from afl.com a few weeks back but do have some 4th rounds picks there available. If they use them I'd like more classy ball users to look at than seeing as the talls have been locked down.

PICK 37 - PORT ADELAIDE: Ethan Phillips / KEY DEFENDER / PORT MELBOURNE / VFL
RATIONALE: Port Adelaide enter the draft here and given there desire to get Ratugolea across from the Cats this pick makes some sense for another genuine taller defender to assist Allir as Clurey can still get found out at times and was even omitted at times in 2022.

PICK 38 - MELBOURNE: Jaiden Magor / FWD - MID / SOUTH ADELAIDE / SA
RATIONALE: Bit more spark inside 50 here for the Demons and from a ranking perspective it's a likely area for him. Inside 50 is a powerful player and tough match up who thrives on the contest and hits the scoreboard. Could force someone like a Melksham or Spargo out of a role quickly and bring some x factor in with a powerful body to work with Pickett.

Different type of forward to Konstanty who I had as in the mix for their first pick but is also capable enough of putting some pressure on in the midfield through the contest when the likes of Oliver and Petracca are resting.
 
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PICK 39 - WESTERN BULLDOGS: Mitch Szybkowski / INSIDE MIDIFIELDER / DANDENONG / VC
After going with an elite outside runner and taller defender I've gone with the inside mid here for the Bulldogs who are only anticipated to pick 3 picks in.

PICK 40 - NORTH MELBOURNE: Potential for a live trade here as North Melbourne seek points for a Cooper Harvey bid match
North are only anticipated to take 4 picks and with currently no further picks I wouldn't be surprised to try and gain some points here or even draft Cooper Harvey potentially given they've already drafted Wardlaw, Sheezel and Cowan.

PICK 41 - ESSENDON NGA (matching Hawthorn bid): Anthony Munkara / GEN FWD / WEST ADELAIDE / SA
With Tsatas/ Philipou, Davey Jr, George and now Munkara Essendon exit the draft with a strong haul. Best outcome for Essendon is a Munkara bid outside 40 as it can't be matched before hand and future 2022 draft hand has been eaten up with Davey points.

PICK 42 - HAWTHORN: Nick Sadler / BALANCED MID / STURT / SA
Hawthorn have a few 3rd round picks before finishing off you'd suspect given that either 4 or 5 picks are expected. Sadler is arguably best available here and again a player of strong character to go with their first round pick and Jakob Ryan from Round 2.

PICK 43 - GWS ACADEMY: Nicholas Madden / RUCK / OSBORNE - NSW / ALLIES
Sydney searching for a ruck go after the GWS Academy product in Madden. Probably a little earlier than expected but for a needs based pick I think it's around the right area for the NSW local particularly with the Swans circliing a ruck.

PICK 44 - SYDNEY: Jackson Broadbent / RUCK / PEEL THUNDER / WA
Highly rated ruck prospect at the start of the year that was anticipated as a first to second round pick he has slid somewhat and was only part of WA State Combine rather than National. Big game player who was named BOG in the WAFL Colts Grand Final for Peel Thunder.

In the mix as a more mature ruck that is a plug and play option I think is another WA product from the WAFL in Hamish Free. Big improver in 2022 with more responsibility at South after the retirement of Brock Higgins at the end of 2021 amd Oscar Steene as a high upside project ruck from West Adelaide in SA and Max Knobel (son of former St Kilda truck Trent).

PICK 45 & 46 - FREMANTLE: Sam Gilbey / DEF - MID / CLAREMONT / WA
Jed Hagan / DEF - MID / EAST FREMANTLE / WA
Fremantle hold back-to-back picks here and continue down the local talent path with Gilbey and Hagan. They would have loved Broadbent to have been available here but it wasn't to be and may look at a more mature ruckman with their last pick from the State Leagues.

PICK 47 - GOLD COAST: James Van Es / KEY DEFENDER / GWV / VC
Even prior to the Rory Thompson retirement I saw this as a positional need for the Suns, so much so that I had Busslinger high up in the rankings at pick 6 if more picks were held.

There are a few different tall / key backs available here including Jed Adams and Hugh Davies from WA, Ryan Eyers as an overager and the athletic but raw Kyle Marshall out of SA.

PICK 48 - ST. KILDA
The Saints according to the AFL Website are only anticpated to be taking three picks and have used them up with Mackenzie, Lemmey and McCallum. They may look to trade picks here for future picks however if they were to hold and draft there is still some quality available in players like Ned Long, Blake Drury, Harvey Gallagher, Adam D'Aolia and so on.

PICK 49 - HAWTHORN: Jason Gillbee / TALL UTILITY / BENDIGO / VC
After the inside work of Clark and balanced mid Sadler my next pick is the taller winger in Gillbee. Accumulates the ball and carries it he may not be an immediate plug in and play but balances Clark well and may work the wings alongside Ward in the future.

PICK 50 - CARLTON: Bailey Macdonald / DEF - MID / OAKLEIGH / VM
A later season bolter who Carlton will love for his run and carry and desire to take the game on. Wouldn;t rule out the Under 18 All Australian wingman Jaxon Binns here either.

PICK 51 - HAWTHORN: Cooper Vickery / DEF - MID / GIPPSLAND / VC
I've got Hawthorn tapping out here with their last pick being the NGA available Cooper Vickery. Outside the top 40 Hawthorn will be comfortable to potentially take a punt on Vickery with his transition run from the back half and versatility a highlight.

PICK 52 - COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood only expected to use three picks so again may be a team that gets involved in points swaps with North. End their draft with Harry Barnett, Max Gruzewski and Isaac Keeler.

PICK 53 - HAWTHORN: PASS
Anticipating 5 picks for the Hawks and them finished with their first round pick, Jakob Ryan, Nick Sadler, Jason Gillbee and Cooper Vickery. If they were to draft a player here, they may look at a taller forward like Tom Scully.

PICK 54 - RICHMOND: Thomas Scully / KEY FWD / WEST ADELAIDE / SA
Richmond enter the draft here after some trades during the period saw them trade out of their early picks and they wouldn't be upset to see Scully from West Adelaide still available. The best available key forward as the potential Riewoldt replacement in the future.

The other names in the mix in terms of tall forward are Olivier Northam from Geelong, Jasper Scaife from West Perth, Jovan Petric from the Jets and Phoenix Foster from Norwood. They may also like the best available where they'd look at some speed possible with Noah Long or Blake Drury.

PICK 55 - GEELONG: Adam D'aolia / INSIDE MID / WOODVILLE W/T / SA
Best available here with the Cats only expected to use a max of 3 picks in the draft and D'Aolia could be a real late gem for the Cats who may have missed Clark early in the piece but get a combative inside mid here in the Woodville product and the Cats get in before the Crows and Power begin the fourth round of picks.
 
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PICK 56 - ADELAIDE: Billy Dowling / BALANCED MID / NORTH ADELAIDE / SA
Best available SA talent here in Dowliing. Consistent midfielder with a tank who accumulates the ball and brings balance between inside and outside, while given list dynamic could fit into a wing/ outside role comfortably in time.

PICK 57 - PORT ADELAIDE: Phoenix Foster / FWD - RUCK / NORWOOD / SA
Best tall from the SA bunch available who brings a lot of upside. Given that Lycett and Dixon are both nearing the end it future proofs both ends somewhat.

PICK 58 - RICHMOND: Noah Long / MID - FWD / BENDIGO / VC
Looking at acceleration speed and consistency here given the recent additions of the hardened Hopper and Tarranto. Hits the scoreboard when forward and skillful inside. The other best available options for Richmond here I think are Gallagher and Drury.

PICK 60 - CARLTON: Jaxon Binns / OUTSIDE MID / DANDENONG / VC
Hard runner on the outside who was AA Wingman at the Championships. Even though a high talent has some real work to do on his size but if playing to his strengths will impact well long term.

PICK 61 - FREMANTLE: Hamish Free / RUCKMAN / SOUTH FREMANTLE / WA
The best ruck out of the WA State League who stepped up with ease at the Bulldogs in 2022 after Brock Higgins retirement from WAFL footy. Good size already and ready to play if Darcy or Jackson go down. Need to replace Meek at Peel also.

PICK 67 - WEST COAST: Will Verrall / RUCK - FWD / SOUTH ADELAIDE / SA
Few different project rucks available here in Knobel from VC, Hudson O'Keefe from VM, Oscar Steene as a very raw but high upside pick from SA. I settled on Verrall given his strengths in contested work and already a strong overhead mark.
 
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ADELAIDE: Expected to take two picks in Michalaney and Dowling.

BRISBANE: Ashcroft and Fletcher are the kings of the draft crop for Brisbane and would see them into a deficit in 2023. Anything after them given they are slated to take 3 - 4 picks will be potentially a young key forward given McStay is out and Gunston is later in his career. Potentially Academy player Shadaeu Brain late also.

CARLTON: Hollands still seems to be the rage at their first but I'm still of the belief that nailing the key defender in Busslinger is more important. Round out their draft with Clarke, Bailey Macdonald and Binns and expected to take 4 picks.

COLLINGWOOD: Gone with talls for the Magpies 3 picks in Barnett, Gruzewski and Keeler.

ESSENDON: The first pick for Essendon still seems a choice between two of Tsatas and Phillipou. Brayden George, Davey and Munkara finishes there National Draft.

FREMANTLE: Picked out the best local talent with their four picks and haven't needed to use any points on NGA products. Smith, Gilbey and Hagan bring players out of transition and greater scoring options going inside 50. Free as the mature ruck man post Meek and Lobb.

GEELONG: Gone with 2 more inside leaning players in Clark and D'Aolia. D'Aolia the one who could potentially turn into something else Drury or Gallagher but it could be dependant on where Clark ends up also.

GOLD COAST: Humphrey, Van Es - The dynamic forward and midfield play of Humphrey before the key postion need of Van Es who is already powerful enough to play early if required but would benefit just as much from waiting behind Collins, Ballard and the like.

GWS: Cadman, Konstanty, Hustwaite, Hayes, Rowston, Madden - There 4 live picks are a mixed back between keys at each end, a small forward Bobby Hill replacement and a taller mid. Rounded out with matched bids on Rowsten and Madden.

HAWTHORN: Tsatas, Jakob Ryan, Sadler, Gillbee, Vickery - Three strong characters and players alike in Tsatas, Ryan and Sadler, Gillbee balances the inside work of Tsatas and Sadler with some outside and versatility. Finishing off their draft with the NGA pick Vickery

MELBOURNE: Jefferson, Magor - Young key forward for the post Brown and MacDonald era followed by a medium forward with plenty of x factor at the end of the second.

NORTH MELBOURNE: Sheezel, Wardlaw, Cowan, Cooper Harvey - The first 3 will be a pleasing sight for North with their live picks before a possible pick swap for matching a bid on Cooper Harvey later.

PORT ADELAIDE: Phillips, Foster - A youthful key forward / ruck in Foster paired with a mature key defender to play alongside Allir in Phillips. Phillips ready to go Round 1.

RICHMOND: Scully, Long - Tigers will be stoked to get Scully that late and add some speed through the midfield with there second.

ST. KILDA: Mackenzie, Lemmey, McCallum - Mackenzie to the Saints is a good start for them and finish off their expected 3 picks with talls at either end in Lemmey who has slid down draft boards and McCallum who has strong, competitive traits as a third tall.

SYDNEY: Allan, Hotton, Broadbent - Bit of a balance in Allan and Hotton before the ruck in Broadent. Allan as the taller midfielder who would replace JPK in the longer term, Hotton the outside/ inside and a young ruck in Broadbent.

WEST COAST: Ginbey, Hewett, Burgiel, Jones, Verrall - Speed, speed and more speed before the ruck plan in Verrall.

WESTERN BULLDOGS: Hollands, Weddle, Szybkowski - Little bit of everything in the Bulldogs 3 picks. Hollands I think is a really strong pick at their first, before the third tall/ verdatile defender in Weddle and the inside mid as almost a best available with Szybkowski who fills a Dunkley hole as a bigger bodied inside midifelder.
 
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PICK 21 - GWS: Lachlan Cowan
PICK 22 - WEST COAST: Darcy Jones
PICK 23 - ESSENDON F/S: Alwyn Davey Jr
PICK 24 - WESTERN BULLDOGS - Charlie Clarke
PICK 25 - NORTH MELBOURNE - Burgiel
PICK 26 - HAWTHORN: Keeler
PICK 27 - COLLINGWOOD: Barnett
PICK 28 - WEST COAST: Edward Allan
PICK 29 - COLLINGWOOD: Brayden George
PICK 30 - ADELAIDE F/S: Max Michalanney
PICK 31 - ST. KILDA: Max Gruzewski
PICK 32 - CARLTON: Jakob Ryan
PICK 33 - FREMANTLE: Jed Hagan
PICK 34 - GWS: Mitch Szybkowski
PICK 35 - ST. KILDA: Sam Gilbey
PICK 36 - PORT ADELAIDE: Ethan Phillips
PICK 37 - MELBOURNE: Nick Sadler
Good effort. Hawks won't go near keeler or a ruck/fwd or ruck
 
PICK 21 - GWS: Lachlan Cowan
PICK 22 - WEST COAST: Darcy Jones
PICK 23 - ESSENDON F/S: Alwyn Davey Jr
PICK 24 - WESTERN BULLDOGS - Charlie Clarke
PICK 25 - NORTH MELBOURNE - Burgiel
PICK 26 - HAWTHORN: Keeler
PICK 27 - COLLINGWOOD: Barnett
PICK 28 - WEST COAST: Edward Allan
PICK 29 - COLLINGWOOD: Brayden George
PICK 30 - ADELAIDE F/S: Max Michalanney
PICK 31 - ST. KILDA: Max Gruzewski
PICK 32 - CARLTON: Jakob Ryan
PICK 33 - FREMANTLE: Jed Hagan
PICK 34 - GWS: Mitch Szybkowski
PICK 35 - ST. KILDA: Sam Gilbey
PICK 36 - PORT ADELAIDE: Ethan Phillips
PICK 37 - MELBOURNE: Nick Sadler
That would be the biggest * you of all time by the Dogs.
 

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I like Keeler, but don't see us selecting him if George is still available.
Appreciate the feedback. George was high in my considerations as well if nothing else than a best available type.

Rationale with Keeler was more so around the key forward element to his game rather than ruck but it's great food for thought.

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Appreciate the feedback. George was high in my considerations as well if nothing else than a best available type.

Rationale with Keeler was more so around the key forward element to his game rather than ruck but it's great food for thought.

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app
I think Hawthorn have traded out players for a reason. They want an early pick next year.
 
Question why do the Lions picks get pushed back ? They would still be worth the same points Brisbane’s the team that’s matching the points so the picks wouldn’t go backwards until after the said match
They don't.
 
Question why do the Lions picks get pushed back ? They would still be worth the same points Brisbane’s the team that’s matching the points so the picks wouldn’t go backwards until after the said match
I get what you mean and can see why I've worked it incorrectly that way.

I'm bound to have mucked up the points/ picks somewhere in hindsight by sliding picks down with a matched bid rather than using current picks to match.

What I think you're saying is that the order routine from a bid match goes like so:

1. Bid is matched
2. That clubs current picks and values are used to bid match, rather than getting shuffled down one pick and then bid matched.
3. After step 2 is done and the points allocated the rest of the draft order gets shuffled accordingly.

I'd imagine there's still a deficit to work for in 2023 but I'll work through correct figures again.

Doesn't change where I'm putting the bids in but will accurately work the deficit.

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
I get what you mean and can see why I've worked it incorrectly that way.

I'm bound to have mucked up the points/ picks somewhere in hindsight by sliding picks down with a matched bid rather than using current picks to match.

What I think you're saying is that the order routine from a bid match goes like so:

1. Bid is matched
2. That clubs current picks and values are used to bid match, rather than getting shuffled down one pick and then bid matched.
3. After step 2 is done and the points allocated the rest of the draft order gets shuffled accordingly.

I'd imagine there's still a deficit to work for in 2023 but I'll work through correct figures again.

Doesn't change where I'm putting the bids in but will accurately work the deficit.

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app
Bids at pick 2 and 19, with our current picks, will see us carry a 685 point deficit in 2023.
 
You made me laugh when you stated.
"The reason they (Geelong) pushed so hard for pick 7 from the Suns was because of Clark"
LOL. Pick 7 was offered/had to be offered to ALL clubs to take on Bowes' salary, rumoured to be $800k x 2 years.
Other than that you assessment was pretty much spot on regards GFC & Clark.
 

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