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Getgaff's 2016 draft thread

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Apologise for being a bit slack with the updates people. ALways find it hard so far out to predict where teams will finish, what teams will put the cue in the rack late, which teams will miss key players with season ending injuries etc but with 2 rounds to go I'm more secure with my predictions.

Will update the OP but my current 1st Round is below

Pick #1: Essendon (3 wins, finish the season with a win over Carlton) - will take a large offer for them to give this up to. Think they'll go into November with it
#2: Brisbane (3 wins)
#3: Fremantle (3 wins)
#4: Carlton (6 wins)
#5: Gold Coast (6 wins)
#6: Richmond (9 wins)
#7: GWS via Collingwood (9 wins)
#8: Port (10 wins)
#9: St. Kilda (11 wins)
#10: Gold Coast via Melbourne (11 wins)

#11: North (13 wins)
#12: West Coast (15 wins)
#13: GWS (15 wins)
#14: Western Bulldogs (16 wins)
#15: Hawthorn (17 wins)
#16: GWS via Geelong (17 wins)
#17: Adelaide (17 wins)
#18: Sydney (17 wins)
 
Glad we now have a set draft order after the crazyness of the trade period. I've done a fair bit of work on my first round today and will try and get updated profiles up on tomorrow or early next week. Anyways my current top 10

Pick 1: Essendon - Hugh McCluggage
Pick 2: GWS - Andrew McGrath
Pick 3: Gold Coast (Brisbane bid matched) - Jack Bowes, 2234 points minus 20% discount = 1787 points - Gold Coast forfeit just pick 4, re enter the draft at pick 6 on traded via Prestia deal.
Pick 4: Brisbane - Ben Ainsworth
Pick 5: GWS (Carlton bid matched) - Will Setterfield, 1878 points minus 20% discount = 1502 points - GWS forfeit picks 15 and 37, re enter the draft at current pick 39 however the likelihood is that they will need to match a Perryman bid as well shortly.
Pick 6: Carlton - Will Brodie
Pick 7: Gold Coast - Jack Scrimshaw
Pick 8: Fremantle - Tim English
Pick 9: Gold Coast - Tim Tarranto
Pick 10: Sydney - Griffin Logue

Petrevski Seton the one that might surprise as missing out on top 10 but with the evenness of the draft he is over looked by a few clubs from the pick 6 - 10 bracket.

WHY?

Carlton - Can't see them passing up on the inside grunt work of Brodie even if his foot skills can be inconsistent compared to SPS.

Fremantle - This was a real debatable one. Past draft logic suggests that Fremantle will draft SPS but again like Brodie I think English is to good for Fremantle to pass on. SPS has been publicly open about a desire to move away from WA as well which may be a factor in the Dockers choice.

Gold Coast - SPS is a Scott Clayton type pick like Callum Ah Chee and Jarrod Garlett of past drafts. Does go against the draft thinking of the Suns however I think they'd be silly to pass up on Scrimshaw, Scrimshaw in the future potentially allows Kolodjashnij to be a more permanent HB/ set up defender rather than be a HB/ midfielder and Tarranto along with Bowes and later Scheer gives numerical coverage in the draft for the losses of Prestia and O'Meara

Sydney - A needs based pick. The chance to bolster there KPD stocks with the versatile Logue is again probably to good an opportunity to sacrifice. On the flip side for a midfield that is quiet heavy on contested football the outside run and class of Petrevski Seton would be a silky addition to their midfield.
 
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Gold coast have picks 4, 6, 8 & 10. If Brisbane bid on Bowes at pick 3, then GC will have to use pick 4 to match. This will leave GC still with picks, 6, 8 & 10. So GC should have the 7th pick after Carlton, if Carlton bid on Setterfield at 5, and all other teams move back one spot in the draft until a team bids on Perryman.
 
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getgaff said:
Glad we now have a set draft order after the crazyness of the trade period. I've done a fair bit of work on my first round today and will try and get updated profiles up on tomorrow or early next week. Anyways my current top 10

Pick 1: Essendon - Hugh McCluggage
Pick 2: GWS - Andrew McGrath
Pick 3: Gold Coast (Brisbane bid matched) - Jack Bowes, 2234 points minus 20% discount = 1627 points - Gold Coast forfeit just the pick 6 acquired from Richmond, re enter the draft at pick 8.
Pick 4: Brisbane - Ben Ainsworth
Click to expand...
Also your math is wrong. 2234 less 20% = 1787.2. So rounding down, GC will be left with 247 points to go towards matching a bid on Scheer later in the draft.
 
briztoon said:
Gold coast have picks 4, 6, 8 & 10. If Brisbane bid on Bowes at pick 3, then GC will have to use pick 4 to match. This will leave GC still with picks, 6, 8 & 10. So GC should have the 7th pick after Carlton, if Carlton bid on Setterfield at 5, and all other teams move back one spot in the draft until a team bids on Perryman.
Click to expand...

This is correct yeh. Thanks Briz
 
briztoon said:
Also your math is wrong. 2234 less 20% = 1787.2. So rounding down, GC will be left with 247 points to go towards matching a bid on Scheer later in the draft.
Click to expand...

Also correct. Not sure how i ended up at 1627 but 1787 is the correct points allocation
 
I can't see any scenario that Brisbane would select Todd Marshal at pick 17 (16). After drafting Ainsworth, our areas of need are rebounding HBF, contested mid and midfield speed.
 
briztoon said:
I can't see any scenario that Brisbane would select Todd Marshal at pick 17 (16). After drafting Ainsworth, our areas of need are rebounding HBF, contested mid and midfield speed.
Click to expand...

Agree. We also have Ballenden next year on top of Schache, Hipwood, Close, Freeman and Walker. We desperately need some midfield grunt and speed.
 
Mayestro said:
Agree. We also have Ballenden next year on top of Schache, Hipwood, Close, Freeman and Walker. We desperately need some midfield grunt and speed.
Click to expand...

Get your points Briztoon and Mayestro and it was something that I weighed up when making the decision.

Interesting that you talk about midfield grunt. Don't think that's a pressing first round draft need either but speed is I agree, Shai Bolton a good fit if available.

I am looking at it from a outsiders perspective and haven't picked according to a need there, more so picking the best talent who happens to be a tall forward with bucket loads of potential just needs to add some size.

Gives an opportunity for the Lions to be set in key posts for the next decade. Schache, Marshall and Hipwood (FWD/ DEF) filling important forward roles with Andrews and Gardiner fairly set in defence and Ballenden to come in at next years draft, it makes for an imposing future spine and goal kicking targets.

Close and Walker are honest triers but don't seem to be part of the next challenging team, Freeman hasn't had a really good run at it yet but with NEAFL development into Marshall that forward line could be stacked with potential.

I'd back Schwab and his team in to draft correctly, good operator and I'd be more than content to be proven wrong and have that pick play 150 games in the midfield for Brisbane. But on the flip side it's a genuine opportunity for Brisbane to set there spine for the next 10 - 15 years over the space of a few drafts.
 
Mayestro said:
Agree. We also have Ballenden next year on top of Schache, Hipwood, Close, Freeman and Walker. We desperately need some midfield grunt and speed.
Click to expand...

Some reason I thought Ballenden was a defender. As a tall forward it weights your against argument even more, consider the Marshall pick turfed.
 
If SPS is there and we pass on him, I might need tequilla and lots of it. We need speed on the outside, and we need silky effective kicks. Scrimshaw would be ideal (taken) but SPS or another good quick mid is ideal. We were burnt on the outside this year, that's where we lost the GF (aside from other factors). We still have Talia, Reid, Johnson (very optimistic this time), Marsh, Alir, Rampe, Grundy who can all play back. I'd rather go small in 2016 with the view to go for KPP in a better KP draft in 2017.
 

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Geez "Getgaff" could you please NOT use yellow on a white background !
 

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getgaff said:
Venables goes at 19 to the Bulldogs.
Click to expand...
I had noticed Venables not in your top 30. I actually think he'll be a slider and even thou he made AA team, not convinced his body of work for jets, metro and pegs warrants top 20 in this draft - mainly doe to injury. Or maybe I'm just hopeful he drops to 27? Anyway enjoy reading these drafts. Thanks
 
Updated the OP with my first round picks and will look to update profiles later today/ tonight
 
thanks getgaff, can't see us taking Luke Ryan that high particularly with Jy Simpkin still on the board.
 
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