Podcast Weekend Wrap Round 5 v Carlton

[feenix67]

Maybe we'll do a comparison with Dave Mundy who had the same inside grunt role that Matt Crouch had eh?
Time On Ground : Mundy 81% vs Matt Crouch 66% no doubt due to Crouch's lack of match practice and conditioning.

Disposals : Matt Crouch 30 > Dave Mundy 23

Kicks : Matt Crouch 9 = Dave Mundy 9

Hb's : Matt Crouch 21 > Dave Mundy 14

Marks : Matt Crouch 3 > Dave Mundy 1

Tackles : Dave Mundy 5 > Matt Crouch 4

Goal Assists : Matt Crouch 1 > Dave Mundy 0

I50's : Matt Crouch 3 > Dave Mundy 1

Clearances : Dave Mundy 7 > Matt Crouch 6

Clangers : Dave Mundy 3 > Matt Crouch 4

R50's : Dave Mundy : 3 > Matt Crouch 1

Cont Poss's : Dave Mundy 15 > Matt Crouch 13

Uncont Poss's : Matt Crouch 17 > Dave Mundy 9

Effective Disp's Matt Crouch > 23 > Dave Mundy 13

Disp Eff : Matt Crouch 76.7% > Dave Mundy 56.5%

1%'s : Matt Crouch 2 > Dave Mundy 0

Score Involvements : Matt Crouch 9 > Dave Mundy 6

Metres Gained : Matt Crouch 230 > Dave Mundy 215

Turnovers : Matt Crouch 3 > Dave Mundy 5

Intercepts : Matt Crouch 2 > Dave Mundy 1

I'm not going to debate my opinions with yours. I've stated continually that I'm happy to have Crouch as a coal face mid, but that we can't have him and Sloane in the same rotation.

For all his stat's, I didn't feel Crouch was influential. He can be as that inside player, but he wasn't last week. We were far more harsh on Sloane.

But thanks for the listener stat Bicks, you clearly place a lot of importance on stats.

 

[Mutineer]

I'm not going to debate my opinions with yours. I've stated continually that I'm happy to have Crouch as a coal face mid, but that we can't have him and Sloane in the same rotation.

For all his stat's, I didn't feel Crouch was influential. He can be as that inside player, but he wasn't last week. We were far more harsh on Sloane.

But thanks for the listener stat Bicks, you clearly place a lot of importance on stats.

It wasn't you as I know you stated that before but the lady Nicki was very disparaging, overly so, to Macca credit he did try to pick her up on her comments.

 

[feenix67]

It wasn't you as I know you stated that before but the lady Nicki was very disparaging, overly so, to Macca credit he did try to pick her up on her comments.

We're a democracy on the CrowCast

 

[feenix67]

 

[FAITH]

Which episode did you say Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

30

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

wants to come home??

 

[1990crow]

Which episode did you say Brodie Grundy wants to come home??

About the time you welched on a bet and hid from bigfooty for a year.

 

[treeman]

Can someone tell me why people call mutineer Bicks?

Sent from my MI PAD 4 using Tapatalk

 

[Scorpus]

Can someone tell me why people call mutineer Bicks?

Sent from my MI PAD 4 using Tapatalk

His old account was Bicks, he closed it, now has a new account

 

[feenix67]

Which episode did you say Brodie Grundy wants to come home??

Haha oh lordy you've turned into a little bitch havent you.

PS the outcome doesn't disprove the premise.

 

[treeman]

His old account was Bicks, he closed it, now has a new account

Thanks.

Sent from my MI PAD 4 using Tapatalk

 

[feenix67]

 

[Flip Side]

Hi Feenix,

First let me start by complimenting you on your podcast.

I started listening to your podcasts early last year I found them an enjoyable way to get commentary on the Crows.
As I live outside SA any football commentary is very Victorian centric to say the least, and your podcast is a super way I can hear more about the Crows.
I particularly enjoy the Tuesday night show where you and Pete talk over all things SA football in a pretty measured way.
The intel on SA kids in the draft was illuminating.
Great job!!!

This season I do wonder if the inclusion of Burgess, the excitement of another season, the exit of MacKay etc has lead to unrealistic performance expectations from the Cast and the audience. The last two Casts do not contain the same levels of positivity and patience as was heard last year for a team in the middle of a rebuild. For a heavy negative tone, I can just listen to the Vic commentary and football shows. Maybe last season the stirring win over the Cats was the antidote that set the tone?

To put this in context, it appeared the majority on the cast (and audience) were shockingly disappointed and (surprised?) that the Crows lost to the Pies at the MCG. Couple of stats on the Pies: They have a 65% win ratio over the Crows, a 67% win ratio over Crows at the MCG, and a 71% win ratio since 2010. Their side over the weekend had nearly 1000 games more experience than the Crows. Even when the Pies are rubbish and the Crows are flying, a win over the Pies is no sure thing. Incidentally, the Crows side that played on the weekend has around 340 odd games less than the side that played in round 23 against North Melbourne in 2021.

Games Played	Crows	Pies
200+	2	2​
150-199	1	5​
100-149	1	3​
50-99	4	3​
10-49	9	7​
>10	6	3​

Three more points to Factor in:

• The preseason was interrupted with Covid etc to the point where over half the squad was compromised. Pre-season continuity always has a significant impact on early season form for individuals.
• Walker, Seedsman and Laird are pretty handy outs when you have minimal experienced players
• In five of the seven wins last year Walker kicked at least 3 goals, and in four of these wins his score was greater than the margin. None of the current forwards have even 50 games experience.

So I have to ask if anyone is really that surprised the Crows are struggling?

Of course it is easier to be critical than patient, and there are many many aspects of the Crows where there are opportunities for improvement. But the truth is, that despite what the Crows may present publicly in terms of list satisfaction, the bulk of this list is still at least 2 seasons off being competitive.

Maybe Crows supporters need to recalibrate expectations and we can revisit the patient optimism that was a consistent theme through season 2021, and find ways to celebrate what will be another year of heavy development?

Carry on in the excellent work you do and hey, hopefully this can be a small contribution for point of discussion. I love the way the cast all express their opinions and keep it real.

kind regards

 

[feenix67]

Hi Feenix,

First let me start by complimenting you on your podcast.

I started listening to your podcasts early last year I found them an enjoyable way to get commentary on the Crows.
As I live outside SA any football commentary is very Victorian centric to say the least, and your podcast is a super way I can hear more about the Crows.
I particularly enjoy the Tuesday night show where you and Pete talk over all things SA football in a pretty measured way.
The intel on SA kids in the draft was illuminating.
Great job!!!

This season I do wonder if the inclusion of Burgess, the excitement of another season, the exit of MacKay etc has lead to unrealistic performance expectations from the Cast and the audience. The last two Casts do not contain the same levels of positivity and patience as was heard last year for a team in the middle of a rebuild. For a heavy negative tone, I can just listen to the Vic commentary and football shows. Maybe last season the stirring win over the Cats was the antidote that set the tone?

To put this in context, it appeared the majority on the cast (and audience) were shockingly disappointed and (surprised?) that the Crows lost to the Pies at the MCG. Couple of stats on the Pies: They have a 65% win ratio over the Crows, a 67% win ratio over Crows at the MCG, and a 71% win ratio since 2010. Their side over the weekend had nearly 1000 games more experience than the Crows. Even when the Pies are rubbish and the Crows are flying, a win over the Pies is no sure thing. Incidentally, the Crows side that played on the weekend has around 340 odd games less than the side that played in round 23 against North Melbourne in 2021.

Games Played	Crows	Pies
200+	2	2​
150-199	1	5​
100-149	1	3​
50-99	4	3​
10-49	9	7​
>10	6	3​

Three more points to Factor in:

• The preseason was interrupted with Covid etc to the point where over half the squad was compromised. Pre-season continuity always has a significant impact on early season form for individuals.
• Walker, Seedsman and Laird are pretty handy outs when you have minimal experienced players
• In five of the seven wins last year Walker kicked at least 3 goals, and in four of these wins his score was greater than the margin. None of the current forwards have even 50 games experience.

So I have to ask if anyone is really that surprised the Crows are struggling?

Of course it is easier to be critical than patient, and there are many many aspects of the Crows where there are opportunities for improvement. But the truth is, that despite what the Crows may present publicly in terms of list satisfaction, the bulk of this list is still at least 2 seasons off being competitive.

Maybe Crows supporters need to recalibrate expectations and we can revisit the patient optimism that was a consistent theme through season 2021, and find ways to celebrate what will be another year of heavy development?

Carry on in the excellent work you do and hey, hopefully this can be a small contribution for point of discussion. I love the way the cast all express their opinions and keep it real.

kind regards

Excellent perspective. I think we did all enter the season with inflated expectations, possibly "rebuild fatigue"? In general, we do try to remain supportive of the kids and a lot of our early season negativity has been focussed on the more experienced as well as some strange selection decisions.

Your points are very valid though, and it wouldn't be the first time listeners have straightened us up a bit! If you haven't already, it would be good for you to get on sometime and share that perspective as we do love having audience members come on and say their piece. I'll definitely take your comments on board and really appreciate the time you've taken to put this down in a post.

 

[Flip Side]

Excellent perspective. I think we did all enter the season with inflated expectations, possibly "rebuild fatigue"? In general, we do try to remain supportive of the kids and a lot of our early season negativity has been focussed on the more experienced as well as some strange selection decisions.

If you haven't already, it would be good for you to get on sometime and share that perspective as we do love having audience members come on and say their piece.

Thanks Feenix

I have a theory that may provide insight into team selection. Its metric based so if it is true, it explains why we get perplexed as to why some decisions are made. As supporters we tend to look at individual player abilities.

My rather simple theory is that players were selected first and foremost on number of games played. Based off last year the Crows selected teams that ranged from 1371 games played (that didn't go well - GWS 67pts ) to 1961 gp (that didn't go well either - WB 49pts). However more significant is the gap between the team played and the Crows on the day.

In the Crows losses there was an average difference in games experience of 574, while in the wins the average difference was 454.

	Game Diff	Ave
Season	-11793​	-536.045​
Wins	-3180​	-454.286​
Losses	-8613​	-574.2​

So here is where I need to note the outlier. The upset in round 1 against the cats was of monumental proportions. The Cats had collectively over twice as many games experience and statistically the Crows should of been no chance, but win they did. If you take this game out, the average difference in games played drops to average of 260 for the wins.

Interestingly, when the gap in games played with the opponent was higher than 500gp, the Crows lost every game except the Cats game. All the other wins came when the gap was less than 500 games, and although this gap did not guarantee a victory, it appears to provide a competitive chance.



These numbers last year play out in the dogged selection of older players, and explains why they pushed experienced players onto the ground even when injured (like Lynch and Sloane). It also solves the riddle over the selections of MacKay, Lynch and Kelly when the Crows must of known they would not be there this season. It further explains Murphy's selection pass when available.

For 2022 it explains the selection of an underdone Wayne Milera in round 1, with his 63 games experience, noting Walker (220), Laird (182), and Seedsman (132) were unavailable. It also shows why the Crows are willing to rush Laird back while his hand is still recovering. It will be interesting to see if this theory holds true over the season, or if there is a variation at some point.

I guess the big question about all this is the balance between being competitive, and the development of the next generation. This year the loss of the aforementioned experience will force them to play kids more, but at the same time they still appear desperate to maximise the on-ground experience. I would consider there may be a competitive threshold that they are trying to maintain so that the team doesn't get consistently flogged to the degree to be detrimental to development.

Food for thought. Would be happy to provide an alternative perspective to the podcast some time, but Covid currently has my voice.

Kind regards
Flipside/Inquisitor

 

[feenix67]

 

[feenix67]

 

[Anzacpaul]

Was this supposed to be the showdown wrap? (Just going by thread title name).

 

[feenix67]

Was this supposed to be the showdown wrap? (Just going by thread title name).

Oops wrong link haha, thanks for pointing it out!

 

[Anzacpaul]

Oops wrong link haha, thanks for pointing it out!

I was looking for the download to listen on the ride home this arvo

 

[feenix67]

 

[Flip Side]

Feen,

you mentioned you were interested in average winning margins for Docklands in comparison to the other stadiums.

2021 it was 4th by average, no doubt Gabba influenced by Lions good form.

 

[Flip Side]

Over the last three years the winning margin for Docklands is around 5 goals.

 

[feenix67]

 

[feenix67]

 

[feenix67]