Rumour GFC 2016 Player Trading, Drafting, FA, Rumours, and Wish lists.

Status
Not open for further replies.

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Joined
Dec 10, 2003
Posts
35,975
Likes
31,550
Location
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
And it's this fundamental principle of probabilities that underpins the phenomena of overrating of draft picks that pervades BF. Every pick seems to be exclusively viewed as its upper end potential, rather than its probabilistic expected value.
I dont disagree that Picks are overvalued.. its one of the reasons that I say depending on the year... two in the 20's could be as good as two late R1's.

Another indicator is that the player can be judged by his performance in the comp you want him to play in..not in a lower comp or a junior one.
How many early picks , even at GWS have not really been much better than R2's or R3's?

I will say though that to build a list just though late picks seem to be just too much of a talent mountain to climb... so the way Geelong seems to have switched to it.. is we draft later talent where its speculative anyway..and really rely on our talent Id and in-system training..and trade in previous early picks that have lived up to that rating in their eyes. So we have added Caddy , Danger , Henderson , Selwood all by picks have added a lot more early picks to our side. If Deludio ends up here it will be another example of it.
 

Jimmy Yamazaki

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Posts
6,355
Likes
6,122
AFL Club
Geelong

CatsDoItBetter

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 9, 2015
Posts
3,543
Likes
5,202
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Melbourne Renegades

bigfarter

Club Legend
Joined
Aug 15, 2009
Posts
2,598
Likes
6,705
AFL Club
Geelong
What's the Deledio talk??
I've just been informed by a reliable "source" that the Deledio talk is very real. Apparently just bought a house in the area. Dunno how he's going to get to us, though. Someone put forth the trade Prestia-Richmond, Motlop-Gold Coast, Deledio-Geelong. Not sure I'd be happy with that purely from an age perspective - would want a pick upgrade from the Tiges too, I'd say. Note, that trade was not from my reliable "source" so that's just speculation.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

CatsDoItBetter

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 9, 2015
Posts
3,543
Likes
5,202
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Melbourne Renegades
I've just been informed by a reliable "source" that the Deledio talk is very real. Apparently just bought a house in the area. Dunno how he's going to get to us, though. Someone put forth the trade Prestia-Richmond, Motlop-Gold Coast, Deledio-Geelong. Not sure I'd be happy with that purely from an age perspective - would want a pick upgrade from the Tiges too, I'd say. Note, that trade was not from my reliable "source" so that's just speculation.
I love the 'just bought a house in the area' stories. Not saying it isn't true it's just amusing
 

bigfarter

Club Legend
Joined
Aug 15, 2009
Posts
2,598
Likes
6,705
AFL Club
Geelong
I love the 'just bought a house in the area' stories. Not saying it isn't true it's just amusing
Oh, I know. It sounds silly and also, just because someone buys a house in an area doesn't necessarily mean they're going to start working there, obviously. I'm just putting forward what I've heard as I saw Deledio's name pop up in this thread literally 30 minutes after being told by someone that it's happening.
 

CatsDoItBetter

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 9, 2015
Posts
3,543
Likes
5,202
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Melbourne Renegades
Oh, I know. It sounds silly and also, just because someone buys a house in an area doesn't necessarily mean they're going to start working there, obviously. I'm just putting forward what I've heard as I saw Deledio's name pop up in this thread literally 30 minutes after being told by someone that it's happening.
Happy if it does but only at the right price
 

Pure_Ownage

Premium Platinum
Joined
Nov 26, 2008
Posts
33,665
Likes
30,906
Location
PODS fan club office
AFL Club
Geelong
Dockers management is expected to land triple Hawthorn premiership winger Brad Hill, disgruntled Greater Western Sydney forward Cam McCarthy and borderline Geelong big man Shane Kersten who is out of contract and unable to secure a regular berth in the strong Cats unit.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/freman...e-looks-set-to-join-pies-20160910-grdam9.html
That would be a crap result for us as kersten is the only one of those three players who is uncontracted and they have an early psd pick.

But i doubt he will go to freo anyway my money would be on a vic club.
 

Daniel McL

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
May 21, 2014
Posts
12,887
Likes
33,241
Location
ACT
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Sydney Sixers

Jimmy Yamazaki

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Posts
6,355
Likes
6,122
AFL Club
Geelong
I'd rather trade Murdoch for T. Menzel.

Lyons is good but can't see where he fits in our team. While we know T. Menzel is very talented he just isn't working hard at the Crows, he might change at the Cats training alongside his brother.

Crows will surely want more for Troy Menzel though than Murdoch, so just a hypothetical.
Menzel went home to SA won't come to us now.
 

Daniel McL

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
May 21, 2014
Posts
12,887
Likes
33,241
Location
ACT
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Sydney Sixers
Menzel went home to SA won't come to us now.
I know he went home. Doesn't mean he's a 0% chance of coming to us. If next year he puts in similar performances to this year in the SANFL then he could be delisted. Either way feel he could make his way to the Cats, very unlikely this year but possibly end of next year when his contract finishes.
 

cats_09

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Posts
11,537
Likes
20,304
AFL Club
Geelong
I know he went home. Doesn't mean he's a 0% chance of coming to us. If next year he puts in similar performances to this year in the SANFL then he could be delisted. Either way feel he could make his way to the Cats, very unlikely this year but possibly end of next year when his contract finishes.
If his 2017 is similar to his 2016 season, why would we want him? If he can't get out of the SANFL then maybe it's a sign to pass on him
 

Daniel McL

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
May 21, 2014
Posts
12,887
Likes
33,241
Location
ACT
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Sydney Sixers
If his 2017 is similar to his 2016 season, why would we want him? If he can't get out of the SANFL then maybe it's a sign to pass on him
As I said in another post, if he comes to the Cats & trains alongside his brother he might pull his finger out & play consistent footy in the seniors as he definitely has the talent for. Maybe he is just thinking at the moment he is home in SA & is fine going through the motions, and you're right even if he comes to the Cats he might just never have the work ethic to succeed, but I'd still love to see the Cats have a go for him when his contract expires.
 

jnrburger

Team Captain
Joined
May 9, 2015
Posts
321
Likes
443
AFL Club
Geelong
I reckon we need a Wojo type defender... someone that can run off the half-back flank, and place defensive pressure on fast forwards - i thought Breust carved us tonight.
Bews still struggling to break in and although can do some odd jobs, think will continue to struggle for some time. Thurlow is more a cross between enright and Mackie, so he's not that small pacey defender either, and Guthrie gives us more drive playing out of midfield. Ruggles slower, grunt type, and still making some bad decisions.

I like Williams or Wilson from GWS.
 

dazbroncos

Max Rooke Appreciation Society
Joined
Oct 9, 2010
Posts
32,651
Likes
48,088
Location
Los Angeles and Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Denver Broncos, Red Bull Racing
Moderator #4,375
That would be a crap result for us as kersten is the only one of those three players who is uncontracted and they have an early psd pick.

But i doubt he will go to freo anyway my money would be on a vic club.
Hearing a little bit that Kersto would prefer to stay at GFC - the external interest is all about playing time. With Balme out at Pies and Mayne looking like heading there, the suitors are thinning a bit. Add Clark and Vardy potentially a less competition and his competition is thinning. Also Bartel not a lock for next year and Menzel will still be on a game count - suddenly there are 4 very good reasons to stay...

Go Catters
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom