I reckon if we go all the way this year there's a fair chance that all of Enright, Bartel and Lonergan will retire on a high. If then you assume that Clark, Vardy and Kersten will all depart that leaves quite a number of list spaces to fill. Horlin-Smith is another that has been mentioned in the trade whispers. From the rookie list Bates will be delisted.
We won't go to the draft with any more than 4 picks so I can imagine that we will be more active than we may have initially intended in trade week.
I don't think that it's a fait accompli we will have a whole heap of spots available. Bartel has met his trigger clause to be here next year so he will only not be here if he chooses to be. Lonners and Enright are going well enough to get another year if they want it. Yes if we win the flag it could make them all retire but could also work the other way in that they see we are 'in the window' and want to push one more year for one last flag. Certainly we can't afford to assume they will all go.
Mid year the only player I had as a certain delisting was Cowan and I was wrong there he is fit and now playing well enough to get another 1 year deal. Probably the only certain retirement is Clark and beyond that the only real 'delistable' player on the senior list is Luxford, everyone else is either a retirement prospect or has a contract and needs a trade. And the latter bits are complicated because we need to find clubs willing to take on those guys contracts as well as give us decent picks-for example Horlin Smith and Murdoch are both contracted for another 2 years, if trading them means we need to pay part of their salaries it provides us next to no cap relief in which case we may as well keep them. The trade ins depend a bit on who goes out-for example if all of Clark Vardy and Kersten go we lean towards a key forward and possibly a ruck otherwise we might lean towards defenders to bring in as trades.
If I had to guess now I would say that Lonergan and Clark retire (the hopeful in me hopes Enright goes on but he may not) Luxford is delisted and Kersten Vardy and one other (probably Horlin Smith) seek trades but I would say it's far from certain we get to those 6 or so changes easily. There are ways around it, for example if we are running short on spots for this year the club could try and trade guys like Vardy and Kersten for 2017 3rd rounders not 2016 3rd rounders which a) gives us more flexibility in any trades we want to do with other clubs (who will want future picks) and b) means we don't have to use every pick we get this year in the current year if we don't have room to. I am sure the club will be working on a few scenarios.
I would really like to see us try and trade up into that 15-25 range if we can for a good look at drafting a KPF (especially if those guys leave). I like both the aforementioned Kerr as well as Josh Battle and Logue (the latter plays as a KPD but I think easily has the attributes to play key forward as well) and I think at least one will be available around that mark. I think we will need another KPF and while Wellsy excels with drafting mids and small forwards and defenders with late picks even he has struggled to nail key forwards in the draft most of his good KPF's have either been concession selections (Hawk, Nath Ablett) or trade ins (Mooney, Pods and hopefully Stanley). I would argue for whatever flaws he divides the board with Kersten at 34 has probably been one of Wellsy's better KPF drafted players. This is no knock on him for the hit rate drafting good KPF's outside the top 20 or so is very low but it's something we need to be aware of. At the end of the day he is out of contract though so if he chooses to go we can't do much about it but we need to have plans as how to replace him either through the trade period or the draft.
So while I am normally a 2 good picks are better than 1 slightly better one guy as it gives you more options this year because of the list squeeze and the KPF issue I would be quite happy to try and turn 2 or 3 later picks into an earlier pick if we can find the right club to trade with to that end.