Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists

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CatToTheFuture

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 18, 2018
7,411
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Menegola was stiff not to be All-Australian last year. No way we dump him on that form....

Clubs, and teams don't work that way, and if you need any example to show what happens when you treat players like cattle, I refer you to the Collingwood Football Club.
I don't mean we dump him, he was UFA I think. He was never getting dumped but if he was chasing a payday elsewhere his stocks were hard to top
 

cats_09

Moderator
Jun 21, 2011
30,216
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it's ok when you waffle on about covid
You asked a question about Scott which has been discussed at length in a dedicated Scott thread - just thought that if you genuinely wanted an answer to your question you might actually be interested in looking at the thread that may help you with said answer is all
 

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foxdog50

Premium Gold
Aug 1, 2006
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I cant believe that the Freo players would be our only links but I guess its possible. We will look to improve our best22

2015, Danger, Henderson, Smith,
2016, Black, Tuohy
2017, Ablett
2018, Rohan
2019, Jack Steven, Jenkins
2020, Higgins, Smith, Cameron
I suppose it's only early days... might hear more rumours in a month or 2...
 

CatToTheFuture

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 18, 2018
7,411
10,564
AFL Club
Geelong
I cant believe that the Freo players would be our only links but I guess its possible. We will look to improve our best22

2015, Danger, Henderson, Smith,
2016, Black, Tuohy
2017, Ablett
2018, Rohan
2019, Jack Steven, Jenkins
2020, Higgins, Smith, Cameron
Even that link came from a disgruntled former employee whose info, if he has any, is based on historic discussions between list managers no longer at their respective clubs.
 

Mad_Catter

Premiership Player
Apr 8, 2011
3,389
6,473
AFL Club
Geelong
What do we rely on atm, country lifestyle and the realistic chance of some sort of success? I’m worried how that looks once Hawk, Selwood & Danger are done. Jezza was a nice addition but desperately need another A grader real soon, whether that be from within or brought in. Holmes massive shot in a few years.
Yep, I think the club sees it the same way, hence our interest in someone like Merrett due to his FA status. I guess in order to attract these guys, we must continue to be really competitive and continually finishing in the top 8 and competing for a flag. I also worry what we will look like when those guys our gone. Hawks have been a big destination club due to their success and strong culture, but that appeal looks to be dropping off now given their ladder position and the uncertainty of Clarko's future there. I wonder how much our country, surf-coast appeal will fade if we drop down the ladder?

IMO, we need these kids such as Stephens, Holmes, DeKoning etc to really come on in the next couple of years. We will continue to attract quality free agents if we remain competitive and have good youth coming through IMO. But gee, it can change quickly like it has at the Hawks, and now maybe Collingwood too.

I think we have butchered some high picks which may come back to bit us. Not sure how that compares to other clubs in the same period, probably average I guess, they all can't work out and many clubs have high picks that amount to nothing. But eventually it might catch up to you. We also had high hopes for Constable and Kreuger, but it's looking very unlikely either will be here next year.

It's an interesting time for the club, we have transitioned the list perfectly over the last decade and remained competitive, but I wonder how long we can keep that going..
 

Turbocat

Hall of Famer
Dec 10, 2003
48,190
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Yep, I think the club sees it the same way, hence our interest in someone like Merrett due to his FA status. I guess in order to attract these guys, we must continue to be really competitive and continually finishing in the top 8 and competing for a flag. I also worry what we will look like when those guys our gone. Hawks have been a big destination club due to their success and strong culture, but that appeal looks to be dropping off now given their ladder position and the uncertainty of Clarko's future there. I wonder how much our country, surf-coast appeal will fade if we drop down the ladder?

IMO, we need these kids such as Stephens, Holmes, DeKoning etc to really come on in the next couple of years. We will continue to attract quality free agents if we remain competitive and have good youth coming through IMO. But gee, it can change quickly like it has at the Hawks, and now maybe Collingwood too.

I think we have butchered some high picks which may come back to bit us. Not sure how that compares to other clubs in the same period, probably average I guess, they all can't work out and many clubs have high picks that amount to nothing. But eventually it might catch up to you. We also had high hopes for Constable and Kreuger, but it's looking very unlikely either will be here next year.

It's an interesting time for the club, we have transitioned the list perfectly over the last decade and remained competitive, but I wonder how long we can keep that going..
For sometime, years probably, I have felt that while we have done a very good job refreshing 85% of our list , the missing component is the stars that one can only gain from the draft... mostly these stars seem to come from early picks. We still have a Fs that was considered a P1 and a player picked at P7...although one may now judge they are far past that level.

Every year premierships are won by clubs that have drafted their own single figure draft picks and still have them on their list. WCoast in 2018 was unusual. Their early picks both missed the match but they had them on their list. It seems you may be able to beat it if you can draft and develop AA level players. Its about have 2 to 4 AA players in ones side.

Can we do that thru trade and FA? Danger has been one player. Cameron has now come. In theory we could add Bont and Merrit and who ever. but SalCap and trade collateral will affect ones ability to do it. Players brought in are more expensive and have less service to give. Players drafted tend to cost less and play for less. Even if you can use FA and trade I think it does narrow the window, one will not get a era like we did with the drafted groups. There is just not enough quality available that wants to come to one club at the same time.

Where are we? We have brought in Cameron. We have Danger who is probably on the way down. Not AA this year and may not be again. Guthrie perhaps. Stewart. Menegola looks a little cooked. No young names. Can someone like Henry become AA. Parfitt? MOC ?

I suspect in the end we will have too many holes to plug, unless we can find 2 to 4 drafted players who develop to AA level. The most likely outcome when we trade in and FA in AA level players is we stay good to average. Meanwhile other clubs with younger lists and younger stars go past us. We do not have a Walsh or whoever to continue to attract top up players,and once we slide into average, the distance to travel to Geelong and all the other considerations that once meant we were second choice will again surface.
 

catempire

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2004
35,381
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For sometime, years probably, I have felt that while we have done a very good job refreshing 85% of our list , the missing component is the stars that one can only gain from the draft... mostly these stars seem to come from early picks. We still have a Fs that was considered a P1 and a player picked at P7...although one may now judge they are far past that level.

Every year premierships are won by clubs that have drafted their own single figure draft picks and still have them on their list. WCoast in 2018 was unusual. Their early picks both missed the match but they had them on their list. It seems you may be able to beat it if you can draft and develop AA level players. Its about have 2 to 4 AA players in ones side.

Can we do that thru trade and FA? Danger has been one player. Cameron has now come. In theory we could add Bont and Merrit and who ever. but SalCap and trade collateral will affect ones ability to do it. Players brought in are more expensive and have less service to give. Players drafted tend to cost less and play for less. Even if you can use FA and trade I think it does narrow the window, one will not get a era like we did with the drafted groups. There is just not enough quality available that wants to come to one club at the same time.

Where are we? We have brought in Cameron. We have Danger who is probably on the way down. Not AA this year and may not be again. Guthrie perhaps. Stewart. Menegola looks a little cooked. No young names. Can someone like Henry become AA. Parfitt? MOC ?

I suspect in the end we will have too many holes to plug, unless we can find 2 to 4 drafted players who develop to AA level. The most likely outcome when we trade in and FA in AA level players is we stay good to average. Meanwhile other clubs with younger lists and younger stars go past us. We do not have a Walsh or whoever to continue to attract top up players,and once we slide into average, the distance to travel to Geelong and all the other considerations that once meant we were second choice will again surface.
Your post reminds me of this effort of mine from four years ago, which tried to show how it’s relatively easy to replace 10 of your best players over four years and there’s no inevitability of heading off the cliff.

It was prompted by posts very similar to yours above that were made in 2017. I think it has held up well.

Part II: Are we approaching “The Cliff”?

First a definitional issue – what is The Cliff? I’d say it’s where your list gets to a point that it’s clear that you can’t win a flag with the core of your current group and you have to make a fairly sudden change in approach to your list management approach by building from the bottom-up. It also involves the gap in talent between you and the contenders being so great that the only way to bridge it is through natural improvement in draftees over a longer time horizon. Plugging gaps with imported players will not be sufficient.

A good start to assess if we are headed that way is to look at our best 25 players and see how many of them will be retired in 3-4 years’ time (as distinct from those that are traded because you at least get a return on them). Let’s make a conservative assumption that anyone 27 years old or over now will not be here in four years time (to play season 2021).

Let’s work with:

Lonergan, Tom 32
Mackie, Andrew 32
Taylor, Harry 30
Hawkins, Tom 28
Selwood, Joel 28
Henderson, Lachlan 27
Smith, Zac 27
Tuohy, Zach 27

Dangerfield, Patrick 26
Motlop, Steven 26
Selwood, Scott 26
Stanley, Rhys 26
Blicavs, Mark 25
Duncan, Mitchell 25
Menegola, Sam 25
Menzel, Daniel 25
Guthrie, Cameron 24
Horlin-Smith, George 24
Murdoch, Jordan 24
Ruggles, Tom 24
McCarthy, Lincoln 23
Thurlow, Jackson 22
Kolodjashnij, Jake 21
Lang, Darcy 21
Cockatoo, Nakia 20

So let’s assume that’s eight players gone.

Now let’s go back four years (season 2013) and have a look at our list. In our best 25 players we had these players who have since departed:

Steve Johnson
Jimmy Bartel
James Kelly
Mathew Stokes
Corey Enright
Paul Chapman
Joel Corey
James Podsiadly
Josh Hunt
Jared Rivers

That’s 10 best 25 players we have since lost from our 2013 side.

Now, I’m sure you can all remember that around that time in 2012-2013 everyone was freaking out and saying “how on earth are we going to replace all of these players? We are surely headed for The Cliff!” But as we know, it didn’t happen (for the reasons I set out in Part I). And we still made a Prelim in 2016 and we are good odds to do so again in 2017. How did we avoid The Cliff?

These are the players who have been added to our list since 2013 and have effectively replaced the 10 players now departed in our best 25 and the means by which we acquired them (in brackets):

Henderson (pick 17 2016)
Smith (picks 49 and 53)
Tuohy (2017 first round pick and pick 63 with Carlton’s 2017 second round pick coming back to us)
Dangerfield (picks 9 2015, 28 and Dean Gore)
Scott Selwood (free agent)
Rhys Stanley (pick 21 traded for Christensen)
Sam Menegola (drafted with pick 66)
Ruggles (drafted with pick 44 rookie draft)
Kolodjashnij (drafted with pick 41)
Lang (drafted with pick 16 2013)
Cockatoo (drafted with pick 10 2014)

So in sum, to replace the departed 10 from 2013 it took six first round picks, one second round pick, a bunch of later picks, a rookie pick and a free agent. We managed to “use” six first round picks in that time because we got an extra through Christensen and we have already used this year’s to get Tuohy.

But what it demonstrates is that replacing 10 or so of your best 25 players in a four year period is entirely possible. We can and we will replace Lonergan, Mackie, Taylor, Hawkins, Selwood, Henderson Smith and Tuohy by the time 2021 rolls around. It will be done using (in draft or trade or combination) the three first round picks we have between now and then, the four second round picks, the bunch of later picks, and any free agents we can entice.

There is a question for debate about whether we have the younger cohort now that can step into the middle aged cohort we have now – Motlop, S.Selwood , Stanley, Blicavs, Duncan, Menegola, Menzel, Guthrie, Horlin-Smith, Murdoch, Ruggles and McCarthy. Are we going to be able to find their equivalents from Buzza, House, Kolodjashnij, Lang, Cockatoo, Cunico, Gregson, Hayball, O'Connor, Gardner, Narkle, Parsons, Z.Guthrie, Henry, Jones, Parfitt, Ratugolea and Simpson? I can see the doubt about that proposition. Only Kolo, Lang, Cockatoo and Gregson have shown AFL quality so far. We are going to need to have quite a few of the others step up to fill the gaps.

In summary, are we inevitably headed for the cliff and a rebuild? It’s possible but I don’t think it’s right to say it’s inevitable.

Next up: Part III - What does a 'conventional rebuild' look like (and is it any better than the alternative)?
 

PzBlinky

Team Captain
Sep 12, 2020
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I suspect in the end we will have too many holes to plug, unless we can find 2 to 4 drafted players who develop to AA level.
This. Our list management has been fantastic over the past 17 years. No other club has played as many finals in that time except Sydney(?), who had special advantages for a period of that. But it gets to the point where there are just too many gaps and you can't compete with the teams stuffed with top talent.

For what's it worth, it almost paid off. Reckon we would have jagged 2019 if we hadn't crapped the bed in the 3rd quarter of the PF, and 2020 vs Port may well have been a different story. But neither happened and here we are.

That said, we're not voluntarily dropping down the ladder until Scott departs. And when it does happen, who's to say we get it right? We've just lost our list manager and even if he stuck around, there's no guarantee. It took Melbourne 11 years to get it right (2007-2018), Carlton have hit the 20 year mark with one respectable finals appearance in that time, and Essendon - well, that's all you have to say.

There's no good answer and no right or wrong - all I hope is we're not waiting another 44 years for the next flag, regardless of how we build the team.
 

catempire

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2004
35,381
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As a follow-up, we lost 14 players from the best 25 since that post above in 2017:

Lonergan, Tom
Mackie, Andrew
Taylor, Harry
Smith, Zac
Motlop, Steven
Selwood, Scott
Menzel, Daniel
Horlin-Smith, George
Murdoch, Jordan
Ruggles, Tom
McCarthy, Lincoln
Thurlow, Jackson
Lang, Darcy
Cockatoo, Nakia

And we have added to our best 25:

Jed Bews
Brandon Parfitt
Tom Stewart
Jack Henry
Mark O’Connor
Gryan Miers
Jake Kolodjashnij
Esava Ratugolea
Gary Rohan
Jordan Clark
Luke Dahlhaus
Shaun Higgins
Jeremy Cameron
Isaac Smith

Tom Atkins is arguably in that mix too.

We’ve also added and lost Ablett, Kelly and Steven in this time.

So seven of the additions were already on the list in 2017 and have broken into the best 25.

The remaining eight were additions and came from:

#57 national draft
#61 traded out
Two UFAs
#15 national draft
#11 rookie draft
The Cameron Trade package equivalent to #12 national draft
#30 traded out

Given that we’ve again shown it’s possible to do this I don’t see why we should be concerned that we can’t turn over another 10 or so players over the next four years and still be competing.
 

Mad_Catter

Premiership Player
Apr 8, 2011
3,389
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AFL Club
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For sometime, years probably, I have felt that while we have done a very good job refreshing 85% of our list , the missing component is the stars that one can only gain from the draft... mostly these stars seem to come from early picks. We still have a Fs that was considered a P1 and a player picked at P7...although one may now judge they are far past that level.

Every year premierships are won by clubs that have drafted their own single figure draft picks and still have them on their list. WCoast in 2018 was unusual. Their early picks both missed the match but they had them on their list. It seems you may be able to beat it if you can draft and develop AA level players. Its about have 2 to 4 AA players in ones side.

Can we do that thru trade and FA? Danger has been one player. Cameron has now come. In theory we could add Bont and Merrit and who ever. but SalCap and trade collateral will affect ones ability to do it. Players brought in are more expensive and have less service to give. Players drafted tend to cost less and play for less. Even if you can use FA and trade I think it does narrow the window, one will not get a era like we did with the drafted groups. There is just not enough quality available that wants to come to one club at the same time.

Where are we? We have brought in Cameron. We have Danger who is probably on the way down. Not AA this year and may not be again. Guthrie perhaps. Stewart. Menegola looks a little cooked. No young names. Can someone like Henry become AA. Parfitt? MOC ?

I suspect in the end we will have too many holes to plug, unless we can find 2 to 4 drafted players who develop to AA level. The most likely outcome when we trade in and FA in AA level players is we stay good to average. Meanwhile other clubs with younger lists and younger stars go past us. We do not have a Walsh or whoever to continue to attract top up players,and once we slide into average, the distance to travel to Geelong and all the other considerations that once meant we were second choice will again surface.

Hard to argue with any of that. I agree, we haven't had those single figure picks that other clubs have had access to. Some of our teen picks have not worked out and that hasn't helped. The only way to get access to those single digit picks is by finishing out of the top 8 for multiple years, or if one of our stars walks and we get one via trade compensation (which is quite difficult as the Kelly trade proves).

The issue with dropping out of the 8 for multiple years and attaining these picks are that our club will quickly lose its destination status, and free agents will drop off our radar. The other issue is, history tells us many clubs, once they drop out of the 8 and go down the path of a rebuild, struggle to re-establish themselves and become a top 8 team regularly.

Teams like Carlton, Melbourne, and Richmond for many, many years were stuck down the bottom. The downside is it can be a long and hard road back - not to mention the drop off in memberships, crowd attendances, merchandise etc. It can be costly in many ways. It's clearly something the clubs wants to avoid, and I can understand their position.

Given all of this I can't see a way that we will get access to those picks. I think we have done a great job, and some mature aged diamonds have probably saved us with some of those higher picks that have not worked out. One thing I think we haven't done as well as other clubs over years is raid the expansion clubs and get in the ears of some of their high picks. Many high picks from the Suns and Giants are currently playing at VIC clubs. Of course there a varying levels of success there. But there are some good GWS players that are playing at VIC clubs who managed to get them at a discounted rate..
 

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Turbocat

Hall of Famer
Dec 10, 2003
48,190
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Newtown
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Geelong
Hard to argue with any of that. I agree, we haven't had those single figure picks that other clubs have had access to. Some of our teen picks have not worked out and that hasn't helped. The only way to get access to those single digit picks is by finishing out of the top 8 for multiple years, or if one of our stars walks and we get one via trade compensation (which is quite difficult as the Kelly trade proves).

The issue with dropping out of the 8 for multiple years and attaining these picks are that our club will quickly lose its destination status, and free agents will drop off our radar. The other issue is, history tells us many clubs, once they drop out of the 8 and go down the path of a rebuild, struggle to re-establish themselves and become a top 8 team regularly.

Teams like Carlton, Melbourne, and Richmond for many, many years were stuck down the bottom. The downside is it can be a long and hard road back - not to mention the drop off in memberships, crowd attendances, merchandise etc. It can be costly in many ways. It's clearly something the clubs wants to avoid, and I can understand their position.

Given all of this I can't see a way that we will get access to those picks. I think we have done a great job, and some mature aged diamonds have probably saved us with some of those higher picks that have not worked out. One thing I think we haven't done as well as other clubs over years is raid the expansion clubs and get in the ears of some of their high picks. Many high picks from the Suns and Giants are currently playing at VIC clubs. Of course there a varying levels of success there. But there are some good GWS players that are playing at VIC clubs who managed to get them at a discounted rate..
Unless we do have one really bad year, and in the same year we lose a high end FA..the likelyhood of us trying to refit our list with early picks would take years and pain, Draft is not perfect either. One year is absolutely no certainty. Cockatoo is the earliest pick we have had for sometime. On talent he was every bit the type of talent I am talking about but his issues show how rubbery the idea of deliberately bottoming out is. I am not advocating we do that deliberately or tanking or an of that sort of outcome.

Even access to the young GWS and GC talents is expensive and to some degree probably over valued. If we were to try to get Rowel, it would cost multiple R1 picks, and the players that are on the edge have risks as well. There have been several of the top 10 picks fail. The GWS and GC are an example of why early picks alone are not a way to build for a flag.

With all that in mind, those stars that stand up are often those early draft players or AA level players.
 

Turbocat

Hall of Famer
Dec 10, 2003
48,190
50,184
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
Your post reminds me of this effort of mine from four years ago, which tried to show how it’s relatively easy to replace 10 of your best players over four years and there’s no inevitability of heading off the cliff.

It was prompted by posts very similar to yours above that were made in 2017. I think it has held up well.
I am not projecting a cliff. I can barely remember at time where our club was so poor that it at the foot of the ladder. I think you post is rational but it also shows how difficult it is to find replacements for our very best , especially when we had a group developed thru the draft.

If we compare

Steve Johnson
Jimmy Bartel
James Kelly
Mathew Stokes
Corey Enright
Paul Chapman
Joel Corey
James Podsiadly
Josh Hunt
Jared Rivers

to these names, no matter what we paid..

Henderson
Smith
Tuohy
Dangerfield
Scott Selwood
Rhys Stanley
Sam Menegola
Ruggles
Kolodjashnij
Lang
Cockatoo

I think most would concede that apart from Danger we have failed to replace our top level AA types. Its extremely difficult. Id say 6 of the names are probably wins , and been clever list management.

The club is proficient it will add good level players and with good development we will be a reasonable side, we have now got Guthrie and Parfit for example. We may have a star coming thru in Henry . Perhaps a couple bob up but as far as being a top side, I still I feel that the most obvious deficiency we have had recently is highly regarded youngsters, whether they be Father Sons or early picks.
 

Turbocat

Hall of Famer
Dec 10, 2003
48,190
50,184
Newtown
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Geelong
As a follow-up, we lost 14 players from the best 25 since that post above in 2017:

Lonergan, Tom
Mackie, Andrew
Taylor, Harry
Smith, Zac
Motlop, Steven
Selwood, Scott
Menzel, Daniel
Horlin-Smith, George
Murdoch, Jordan
Ruggles, Tom
McCarthy, Lincoln
Thurlow, Jackson
Lang, Darcy
Cockatoo, Nakia

And we have added to our best 25:

Jed Bews
Brandon Parfitt
Tom Stewart
Jack Henry
Mark O’Connor
Gryan Miers
Jake Kolodjashnij
Esava Ratugolea
Gary Rohan
Jordan Clark
Luke Dahlhaus
Shaun Higgins
Jeremy Cameron
Isaac Smith

Tom Atkins is arguably in that mix too.

We’ve also added and lost Ablett, Kelly and Steven in this time.

So seven of the additions were already on the list in 2017 and have broken into the best 25.

The remaining eight were additions and came from:

#57 national draft
#61 traded out
Two UFAs
#15 national draft
#11 rookie draft
The Cameron Trade package equivalent to #12 national draft
#30 traded out

Given that we’ve again shown it’s possible to do this I don’t see why we should be concerned that we can’t turn over another 10 or so players over the next four years and still be competing.
The Kelly pick is an anomaly or an outlier. To turn him into the picks we gained is a rare boon for us. We still have not seen all we have gained or lost by the trade.

If we look back in 4 years at these names. We may have several wins, whether they are AA level players for us.. we will have to see. Stewart has already been AA so it's possible. Can Parfitt, Henry and Sav become AA for us?

Jed Bews
Brandon Parfitt
Tom Stewart
Jack Henry
Mark O’Connor
Gryan Miers
Jake Kolodjashnij
Esava Ratugolea
Gary Rohan
Jordan Clark
Luke Dahlhaus
Shaun Higgins
Jeremy Cameron
Isaac Smith
 

catempire

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2004
35,381
69,163
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
I am not projecting a cliff. I can barely remember at time where our club was so poor that it at the foot of the ladder. I think you post is rational but it also shows how difficult it is to find replacements for our very best , especially when we had a group developed thru the draft.

If we compare

Steve Johnson
Jimmy Bartel
James Kelly
Mathew Stokes
Corey Enright
Paul Chapman
Joel Corey
James Podsiadly
Josh Hunt
Jared Rivers

to these names, no matter what we paid..

Henderson
Smith
Tuohy
Dangerfield
Scott Selwood
Rhys Stanley
Sam Menegola
Ruggles
Kolodjashnij
Lang
Cockatoo

I think most would concede that apart from Danger we have failed to replace our top level AA types. Its extremely difficult. Id say 6 of the names are probably wins , and been clever list management.

The club is proficient it will add good level players and with good development we will be a reasonable side, we have now got Guthrie and Parfit for example. We may have a star coming thru in Henry . Perhaps a couple bob up but as far as being a top side, I still I feel that the most obvious deficiency we have had recently is highly regarded youngsters, whether they be Father Sons or early picks.
No other teams have players of that calibre now days. We are comparing different times and we were very fortunate to assemble a side of that quality. We don’t need to replace those players like-for-like; we just need to be better enough than the rest.
 

catempire

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2004
35,381
69,163
Melbourne
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Geelong
The Kelly pick is an anomaly or an outlier. To turn him into the picks we gained is a rare boon for us. We still have not seen all we have gained or lost by the trade.

If we look back in 4 years at these names. We may have several wins, whether they are AA level players for us.. we will have to see. Stewart has already been AA so it's possible. Can Parfitt, Henry and Sav become AA for us?

Jed Bews
Brandon Parfitt
Tom Stewart
Jack Henry
Mark O’Connor
Gryan Miers
Jake Kolodjashnij
Esava Ratugolea
Gary Rohan
Jordan Clark
Luke Dahlhaus
Shaun Higgins
Jeremy Cameron
Isaac Smith
I can’t see how trying to project AA quality is helpful. It’s an outcome; not something you can recruit for.
 

Turbocat

Hall of Famer
Dec 10, 2003
48,190
50,184
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Geelong
No other teams have players of that calibre now days. We are comparing different times and we were very fortunate to assemble a side of that quality. We don’t need to replace those players like-for-like; we just need to be better enough than the rest.
Tru. We may never again have such range of early pick talent and Father Sons.


I can’t see how trying to project AA quality is helpful. It’s an outcome; not something you can recruit for.
I cant see how if we do not replace our best players... who were not only our best but best in comp... that we reamain a legit threat. I do not foresee a cliff but I can see us sliding into mediocrity unless we find the type of player in the draft.Its the only way you can add enough of them. I have said single figure, and AA but neither of those are absolutes, without that level of player we are not doomed but we are sure to be ordinary, as we have been for the vast majority of Geelong existence.

Can you project for AA? I suspect everytime you pick you hope for the best, we have seen Wells go for longshots , there was elements of trying to find more our the pick level we had. It's a generalisation but without top level FSons or single figure draft picks we had last time, finding that level player with draft picks we have had is unlikely. I think the group you posted showed that.

While I see all this, I also cant see an obviously better way to proceed. Some would totally trust youth and the following fall would the produce the early picks desired.Not many clubs succeed from extensive cleanouts without being selective and lucky.

So where are we. Hawkins on the way out , we seem to have replaced with Cameron. Selwood on last legs do we replace him with Merrit? Find a bargain with Menegola, Stewart, MOC, Blitz etc. Doing this we have stayed capable if not successful. We have been better than ordinary because we have found some players thru the draft. How many quality players we find thru the draft will in the end determine the outcome that Mad_Catter posted on.
 

goyoucatters

Premiership Player
Jan 31, 2008
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As was the case in 2017, we probably need half a dozen or so player already on our list from outside the current best 25 players to break into it. Will we get that from:

View attachment 1119047
From your list, I think you can bank on Simpson, Close, SDK and Holmes pushing up. And I'll be very surprised if Evans, Neale, Stephens and Stevens don't make it as well. So that gives you eight to keep the list refreshed and relevant.

All of which means that, like you, I'm less of a believer in 'The Cliff' than some others around here.
 

catempire

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2004
35,381
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Tru. We may never again have such range of early pick talent and Father Sons.




I cant see how if we do not replace our best players... who were not only our best but best in comp... that we reamain a legit threat. I do not foresee a cliff but I can see us sliding into mediocrity unless we find the type of player in the draft.Its the only way you can add enough of them. I have said single figure, and AA but neither of those are absolutes, without that level of player we are not doomed but we are sure to be ordinary, as we have been for the vast majority of Geelong existence.

Can you project for AA? I suspect everytime you pick you hope for the best, we have seen Wells go for longshots , there was elements of trying to find more our the pick level we had. It's a generalisation but without top level FSons or single figure draft picks we had last time, finding that level player with draft picks we have had is unlikely. I think the group you posted showed that.

While I see all this, I also cant see an obviously better way to proceed. Some would totally trust youth and the following fall would the produce the early picks desired.Not many clubs succeed from extensive cleanouts without being selective and lucky.

So where are we. Hawkins on the way out , we seem to have replaced with Cameron. Selwood on last legs do we replace him with Merrit? Find a bargain with Menegola, Stewart, MOC, Blitz etc. Doing this we have stayed capable if not successful. We have been better than ordinary because we have found some players thru the draft. How many quality players we find thru the draft will in the end determine the outcome that Mad_Catter posted on.
I doubt we will ever see eye to eye on this.

Why is a player from the draft inherently more valuable than Jeremy Cameron or Patrick Dangerfield? They are superstars.
 

catempire

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Mar 20, 2004
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From your list, I think you can bank on Simpson, Close, SDK and Holmes pushing up. And I'll be very surprised if Evans, Neale, Stephens and Stevens don't make it as well. So that gives you eight to keep the list refreshed and relevant.

All of which means that, like you, I'm less of a believer in 'The Cliff' than some others around here.
The interesting thing is when I looked at the 2017 list I may not have predicted the six who have “made it” and those that didn’t.
 

goyoucatters

Premiership Player
Jan 31, 2008
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The interesting thing is when I looked at the 2017 list I may not have predicted the six who have “made it” and those that didn’t.
Totally agree. And I could certainly be wildly wrong with my estimation above. But I do think those players in particular look like really good prospects.

They have to get through mostly unscathed on the injury front (Cooper Stephens is getting very worrying on this metric) and also develop steadily. But Simpson and Close are already two that I never really expected to come through who are showing more than enough.

IWWT.
 

Turbocat

Hall of Famer
Dec 10, 2003
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I doubt we will ever see eye to eye on this.

Why is a player from the draft inherently more valuable than Jeremy Cameron or Patrick Dangerfield? They are superstars.
See things differently. Thats good. Who wants to discuss stuff with 100 versions of their own opinion in an echo chamber.

Why is the draft better than the selection of trade or FA?

If only we could access every uncontracted player a club wanted as FA, it may be superior. One would be dealing with a more known commodity. Our draft at 18 ..is far younger than the kids taken in the American system we have based the draft on, so its a far less certain system. In a pure player acquisition system, perhaps we do not have a draft. Other sports do not have one. Does soccer require FA? Every player should almost be allowed to pick and move clubs without trade as a FA, just like any employee moving to a different job but no doubt this would favour certain clubs and move us away from the socially engineered model of an idealistic equal comp. There has always been an aweness of trying to keep the comp even..going back to the Coulter Law, and we have seeminly always placed players in the realm of an asset to a club for them to trade and receive reciprocation for loss. Whether it was clearance fees or draft picks. So I cant see it being opened up too radically, so we will still have to access more players from the draft than any other method.

I do not have a problem adding players from other clubs but the chance to add guns like Danger is rare and the cost of it is usually prohibitive. Geelong has tried to use the returning Falcon to their advantage but it has limitations. For eg. I cant see us getting Sam Walsh any time soon but if we could organise it great. This year is it Merrit as a FA? If so fine ..but we will still add two to three times as many drafted players to our list than in system players. The last 3 years we have used over 15 picks. Last year we brought in 3 players and still had 3 draft picks . The majority of a clubs list will be brought in thru the draft, therefore one has to find the majority of your best players that way.

Last year our top10 from the B&F, only Danger was a traded in player. Without those drafted players becoming our best players we would not have been where we were.

I suspect there are also subtle differences like growing a group together rather adding players that are already developed. That may be a positive or a negative.
 

catempire

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2004
35,381
69,163
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
See things differently. Thats good. Who wants to discuss stuff with 100 versions of their own opinion in an echo chamber.

Why is the draft better than the selection of trade or FA?

If only we could access every uncontracted player a club wanted as FA, it may be superior. One would be dealing with a more known commodity. Our draft at 18 ..is far younger than the kids taken in the American system we have based the draft on, so its a far less certain system. In a pure player acquisition system, perhaps we do not have a draft. Other sports do not have one. Does soccer require FA? Every player should almost be allowed to pick and move clubs without trade as a FA, just like any employee moving to a different job but no doubt this would favour certain clubs and move us away from the socially engineered model of an idealistic equal comp. There has always been an aweness of trying to keep the comp even..going back to the Coulter Law, and we have seeminly always placed players in the realm of an asset to a club for them to trade and receive reciprocation for loss. Whether it was clearance fees or draft picks. So I cant see it being opened up too radically, so we will still have to access more players from the draft than any other method.

I do not have a problem adding players from other clubs but the chance to add guns like Danger is rare and the cost of it is usually prohibitive. Geelong has tried to use the returning Falcon to their advantage but it has limitations. For eg. I cant see us getting Sam Walsh any time soon but if we could organise it great. This year is it Merrit as a FA? If so fine ..but we will still add two to three times as many drafted players to our list than in system players. The last 3 years we have used over 15 picks. Last year we brought in 3 players and still had 3 draft picks . The majority of a clubs list will be brought in thru the draft, therefore one has to find the majority of your best players that way.

Last year our top10 from the B&F, only Danger was a traded in player. Without those drafted players becoming our best players we would not have been where we were.

I suspect there are also subtle differences like growing a group together rather adding players that are already developed. That may be a positive or a negative.
Maybe there’s more common ground than I thought. I agree with all of that.

Perhaps where we differ is I think we will easily be able to replace those we lose over the next four years with a combination of draft, trade and FA. I think the last 6-7 years shows it’s eminently possible. I’m yet to be convinced there’s some change needed to the current strategy.
 

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