Rumour GFC 2023 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt1

[cats_09]

As we are now getting into the season and we are starting to get a bit more serious with discussion, seems a suitable time to post the following as it's repeatedly shown itself to be a value reference tool in trade & draft discussion

And as per normal, thanks to Lore for putting this together - always a fantastic reference tool



And yes this post is now stickied - makes it easy to keep track of (can easily reverse this though if needed)

 

[BigCat1]

No one is ever going to trade for the next pick. WC would know that if we were genuinely interested in the player we would just pick them. If we were willing to trade then we were never going to pick them anyway and WC are giving an extra pick away for nothing. It would be Hawthorn that WC would try to trade with to jump ahead of us to take one of the WA players if they knew we were interested.

No idea what’s going to happen but it’s happened multiple times before.

Lana pointed out one. Last year Port traded up or swapped one of two spots to grab Sinn with WCE for a F2nd sweetener.

It’s highly unlikely with WC but would be a live option for the saints maybe. Esp if both Tsatas and Clark are on the board. I get the feeling the Saints would be much more keen on Tsatas.

The option then is Tsatas (Geel) or Clark (Geel) + F2. Everyone prob wins that way

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Ginbey and Allen both sound like they will return to wa. I’d be staying clear of them regardless of talent.
Bit surprised to hear the late prospects we’re linked to, I really hope we draft a key defender late.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Ed Allan - attracting late interest from Geel ( pick 7) and West Coast ( 8 and 12 )

Has stormed up the calculations after a strong finish to the season to become a serious 1st round chance

The 194cm Utility averaged more than 25 possessions 6 marks and 4 tackles in the WAFL Colts since returning from a back injury for the final 5 games of the season

Ed also produced a strong National Combine - winning the 20 metre sprint with a blistering time of 2.81 seconds which was the 5th fastest time in Combine history

Apologies - if that has already been mentioned in this thread

 

[Reg Hickey]

Humprey is my #1 want... A want that's any kind of possibility that is.

Come tomorrow night he is the one I'll be really hoping slips through to us.

Just feel that It's gonna be Clark though and whilst I'm not in love with him... Getting him + Bowes for an F3 after winning the flag is still a ridiculously good result.

My worry is run, spread, and midfield size/versatility in a couple of years though.

Bring on the draft and next season.

Yeah I dunno that you should be worrying about our run & spread in a few years.

That was one thing we did much better in 2022 than previously, and if you look at where it came from, it was names like Holmes, Close, Miers and Stengle. From the older set you would only really add Isaac Smith to that list. And we have a ton of younger guys already on the sidelines waiting to add to it.

As for midfield versatility, sure, based on our current list in 3-4 years you'd assume Danger, Blicavs, Guthrie are gone, and so the core mid group might be Atkins, Parfitt, Bowes, Bruhn. If you add Jhye Clark, that's a bunch of pretty standard 6 footers in a world where 6'4" mids are becoming increasingly common. It's also weighted more inside than outside. But maybe Holmes is playing a lot more mid time by then. Maybe O Henry is too. Maybe Knevitt makes it. Maybe we draft another couple of 190cm running mids in the next year or two. Maybe we bring in someone else from the outside - we've certainly shown a willingness to do that.

Bottom line: whoever we take at pick 7 (8) this year is not gonna dictate what our midfield looks like in 3-4 years time. Could well be a very important piece of it, but only one piece.

Just one more thing on Tsatas: this is a gut feeling and may be completely unfair to the kid, but I'm just not sure he's got the stomach for the contest. A couple of times I've seen him almost seem to flinch and shy away slightly when anticipating contact. And if he's doing that to avoid some 17yo who might weigh 65kgs wringing wet, what's he gonna do when it's Petracca or Dusty Martin or Patrick Cripps bearing down? Maybe I'm being harsh on him, but I don't like it. That sh*t gets shown up big time at AFL level. I don't care how much burst speed he's got, if can't get that out of his game then his career will be severely limited.

 

[BORIS332]

After Cal's underwhelming phantom, I'm putting my nuts on the line and going against him with my REALLY out there final phantom, haha - just for something a bit different (doing a Top 30 as well for posterity):

1. Aaron Cadman (GWS)
2. Will Ashcroft (Brisbane - matched North bid)
3. Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne)
4. George Wardlaw (North Melbourne)
5. Mattaes Phillipou (Essendon)
6. Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast)
7. Elijah Tsatas (Melbourne - Live Pick swap of 14 and Freo Future 1st with Hawthorn for Pick 7 and Pick 41)
8. Jhye Clark (Geelong)
9. Reuben Ginbey (West Coast)
10. Cam Mackenzie (Saints)
11. Olly Hollands (Gold Coast - Live Pick swap of Gold Coast Future 1st and Pick 45 with Carlton for Pick 12)
12. Jedd Busslinger (Western Bulldogs)
13. Matt Jefferson (West Coast)
14. Ed Allan (Hawthorn)
15. Brayden George (Sydney)
16. Jacob Konstanty (GWS)
17. Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane - matched Collingwood bid)
18. Harry Barnett (Collingwood)
19. Elijah Hewett (West Coast - Live Pick swap of 23 and Future 2nd for Sydney Pick 19, due to GWS looking to take him with their next pick/Freo looking to move up)
20. Josh Weddle (GWS)
21. Darcy Jones (Fremantle - Live Pick swap of North Future 2nd with GWS for Pick 22 due to West Coast looking to take him with their next pick)
22. Lewis Hayes (West Coast)
23. Olli Hotton (Western Bulldogs)
24. Isaac Keeler (Essendon)
25. Lachie Cowan (North Melbourne)
26. Max Michallaney (Adelaide - matched Hawthorn bid)
27. Jakob Ryan (Hawthorn)
28. Alwyn Davey Jnr. (Essendon - matched Collingwood bid)
29. Charlie Clarke (Collingwood)
30. Max Gruzewski (St Kilda)

*************************

Write up/explanations to come later - as there's a fair bit going on there, haha

I'm more inclined to trust Cal's sources than anyone else's. People are shocked he has Phillipou going to the Saints at pick 10, but I think people have been sucked in by Mattaes' overconfidence. His numbers simply aren't that great.

The SANFL U18 program is extremely weak, all the guns are either playing private school footy or reserves/league. He only earned three reserves games, averaging 14 touches. He also only averaged 17 disposals in the U18 champs. People talk about Ginbey being low production, he averaged 21 at the champs.

Phillipou domiated SANFL U18s (avg. 30 disp), but so did Jakob Ryan (avg. 28 disposals at U18 level, 20 at reserves level). Billy Dowling averaged 31 in SANFL U18s. Nick Sadler averaged 23 across four league and reserves games. These guys are all rated late draft-rookie options.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

A day out and the media are starting to leak out the interviews and info/intel

For our last pick we are linked to the following
Cal AFL - Cam Owen (TAS), Szybkowski, Foster (SA), Dowling (SA) Petric
HS - Lovelock (SA), Szekely (SA mature), Foster (SA) Gallagher (Country 19)

As always we love to shop SA for late picks

Are any of those players defenders?

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I'm more inclined to trust Cal's sources than anyone else's. People are shocked he has Phillipou going to the Saints at pick 10, but I think people have been sucked in by Mattaes' overconfidence. His numbers simply aren't that great.

The SANFL U18 program is extremely weak, all the guns are either playing private school footy or reserves/league. He only earned three reserves games, averaging 14 touches. He also only averaged 17 disposals in the U18 champs. People talk about Ginbey being low production, he averaged 21 at the champs.

Phillipou domiated SANFL U18s (avg. 30 disp), but so did Jakob Ryan (avg. 28 disposals at U18 level, 20 at reserves level). Billy Dowling averaged 31 in SANFL U18s. Nick Sadler averaged 23 across four league and reserves games. These guys are all rated late draft-rookie options.

Yeah I saw this post online which I found pretty funny....this bloke goes "Why is nobody telling us how good he is except himself?"


Wonder if clubs think the same thing

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

That's the one. Entire Carlton board and many other boards in the past, have verified his intel, and he's been on the money about a fair few things. Not overly surprising given it was basically between Tsatas or Phillipou, but pretty much confirms it now.

Makes sense that the Bombers will pick a tall mid - they have plenty of sub 185cm on their list already.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No one is ever going to trade for the next pick. WC would know that if we were genuinely interested in the player we would just pick them. If we were willing to trade then we were never going to pick them anyway and WC are giving an extra pick away for nothing. It would be Hawthorn that WC would try to trade with to jump ahead of us to take one of the WA players if they knew we were interested.

Thats true. St kilda or melb or even bulldogs might trade up with us though-for the reason that you mentioned.

 

[BIGANT]

I reckon the Hawks will trade back and I don't discount Melbourne trying to get there pick.

Was told today by a reliable source *works for the club under Wellsy & Mack here in Adel *that they will not trade out pick 7, it will take a monster offer to move it on.
They know who they want, it may have already been brought up on here earlier that Melbourne have reached out to the cat's and the eagles might enquire about a *live trade on the night. Will follow that and see how accurate he was. I trust the man and I even asked an open ended query hoping he might name drop who they were picking at #7. I didn't ask as i have alot of respect the bloke.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Yeah I dunno that you should be worrying about our run & spread in a few years.

That was one thing we did much better in 2022 than previously, and if you look at where it came from, it was names like Holmes, Close, Miers and Stengle. From the older set you would only really add Isaac Smith to that list. And we have a ton of younger guys already on the sidelines waiting to add to it.

As for midfield versatility, sure, based on our current list in 3-4 years you'd assume Danger, Blicavs, Guthrie are gone, and so the core mid group might be Atkins, Parfitt, Bowes, Bruhn. If you add Jhye Clark, that's a bunch of pretty standard 6 footers in a world where 6'4" mids are becoming increasingly common. It's also weighted more inside than outside. But maybe Holmes is playing a lot more mid time by then. Maybe O Henry is too. Maybe Knevitt makes it. Maybe we draft another couple of 190cm running mids in the next year or two. Maybe we bring in someone else from the outside - we've certainly shown a willingness to do that.

Bottom line: whoever we take at pick 7 (8) this year is not gonna dictate what our midfield looks like in 3-4 years time. Could well be a very important piece of it, but only one piece.

Just one more thing on Tsatas: this is a gut feeling and may be completely unfair to the kid, but I'm just not sure he's got the stomach for the contest. A couple of times I've seen him almost seem to flinch and shy away slightly when anticipating contact. And if he's doing that to avoid some 17yo who might weigh 65kgs wringing wet, what's he gonna do when it's Petracca or Dusty Martin or Patrick Cripps bearing down? Maybe I'm being harsh on him, but I don't like it. That sh*t gets shown up big time at AFL level. I don't care how much burst speed he's got, if can't get that out of his game then his career will be severely limited.

We've been saying this for the better part of 10 years though and it's still not necessarily true. For every Cripps, Fyfe and Bontempelli there's 100 Jansens, Constables, Collier-Dawkins, Hatelys etc.

The needle actually hasn't shifted that much. The main difference is that over the last 30 years or so an average on-baller was around the 5'8 mark, where as now they're around 6'0.

In terms of superstar midfielders there are some who are tall (Cripps, Bontempelli) Some who are average height in today's game (Petracca, Oliver) and some who are short which is the true shrinking market (Lachie Neale)

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that the priority should still be foot skills, pace, character, leadership etc when drafting a midfielder. The pendulum hasn't yet swung enough to be prioritising height, and it won't for some time. There just isn't enough good tall midfielders as of yet for the philosophy to change.

 

[dangerwood]

I'm more inclined to trust Cal's sources than anyone else's. People are shocked he has Phillipou going to the Saints at pick 10, but I think people have been sucked in by Mattaes' overconfidence. His numbers simply aren't that great.

The SANFL U18 program is extremely weak, all the guns are either playing private school footy or reserves/league. He only earned three reserves games, averaging 14 touches. He also only averaged 17 disposals in the U18 champs. People talk about Ginbey being low production, he averaged 21 at the champs.

Phillipou domiated SANFL U18s (avg. 30 disp), but so did Jakob Ryan (avg. 28 disposals at U18 level, 20 at reserves level). Billy Dowling averaged 31 in SANFL U18s. Nick Sadler averaged 23 across four league and reserves games. These guys are all rated late draft-rookie options.

You've raised a really interesting point, I may have definitely been sucked in. I think the flip side and why there's extra love around him regardless of output is the fact he is still only 17. He only just makes the draft cut off.

 

[Shadow89]

I'm more inclined to trust Cal's sources than anyone else's. People are shocked he has Phillipou going to the Saints at pick 10, but I think people have been sucked in by Mattaes' overconfidence. His numbers simply aren't that great.

The SANFL U18 program is extremely weak, all the guns are either playing private school footy or reserves/league. He only earned three reserves games, averaging 14 touches. He also only averaged 17 disposals in the U18 champs. People talk about Ginbey being low production, he averaged 21 at the champs.

Phillipou domiated SANFL U18s (avg. 30 disp), but so did Jakob Ryan (avg. 28 disposals at U18 level, 20 at reserves level). Billy Dowling averaged 31 in SANFL U18s. Nick Sadler averaged 23 across four league and reserves games. These guys are all rated late draft-rookie options.

No arguments here, but the reason I'm in a bit of disbelief, is because Phillipou himself said its down to Hawthorn or Essendon...which makes me think Saints haven't even spoken to him.

Just not sure about Cal this year, as he's given some pretty stock standard answers and seems like he's not as 'in the know' with all the machinations of this draft, as he was last year. As multiple people have pointed out, feels very 2020 - when he wasn't even close with his phantom because there were so many surprises.

 

[D BRIDGE]

No arguments here, but the reason I'm in a bit of disbelief, is because Phillipou himself said its down to Hawthorn or Essendon...which makes me think Saints haven't even spoken to him.

Maybe the Poo with that mega ego just can't bare to imagine two clubs with serious interest in him could possibly pass him up.

 

[Turbocat]

Gold Coast have a massive issue with the go home factor. Can't understand why they wouldn't select Hollands or bid on Fletcher at 6 (even though it's a bit early). Hollands joining surely means him and his brother would both stay and Fletcher and family live an hour down the road.

It seesm like he is consistently linked to Carlton. I wonder if they had their time over if they would have kept 7 and offered their Fr1. They had to get rid of it anyway

 

[Phill Hendo]

Wellsy might be hoping Clark is gone by our pick to free his hand completely. Then he nominate Ed Allan. Then best available key position (>196 cm) with the second pick.

Allan's year has Wells written all over it.

But I'll be happy with who ever we choose especially if Clohesy getting through as a B rookie.

 

[BigCat1]

Cal still sticking with Tsatas to the Bombers with the late mail.

Melb offering the Bombers 2 F1sts & 14 for pick 5 and 23. Saints also trying to trade up to Haw pick. Surely we are interested there as well. I guess it’s all dependant on Tsatas sliding past 5

Big offer by Melb. Only thing is Phillipou will be gone by 14. I wonder who Melb want.

 

[D BRIDGE]

I don't get why the Dons seem to be happy to not take Humprey.

Seems to be the mid type they (and most) lack... A big bodied powerful goal kicking mid.

 

[David the Cat]

I don't get why the Dons seem to be happy to not take Humprey.

Seems to be the mid type they (and most) lack... A big bodied powerful goal kicking mid.

Me either but I recall reading somewhere that there was a belief by some that he had limited upside. Whether that's true or not I have no idea.

 

[year of the cat]

I’ll eat my hat if Clark isn’t on our list by the end of tomorrow.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Was told today by a reliable source *works for the club under Wellsy & Mack here in Adel *that they will not trade out pick 7, it will take a monster offer to move it on.
They know who they want, it may have already been brought up on here earlier that Melbourne have reached out to the cat's and the eagles might enquire about a *live trade on the night. Will follow that and see how accurate he was. I trust the man and I even asked an open ended query hoping he might name drop who they were picking at #7. I didn't ask as i have alot of respect the bloke.

I do agree we wont trade 7 unless we get a monster offer (ie a 10-15 pick and a future 1st plus something else) and only if we are fairly sure we can still get who we want. Ie for example if its clark we want and we think the eagles will take ginbey then we might trade down to 9 with st kilda because we would still get clark anyway (for example). But i still reckon its 90 % likely we dont trade 7 and take clark. The question is does a club want 7 desperately enough that they are prepared to offer us serious overs for it?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Cal still sticking with Tsatas to the Bombers with the late mail.

Melb offering the Bombers 2 F1sts & 14 for pick 5 and 23. Saints also trying to trade up to Haw pick. Surely we are interested there as well. I guess it’s all dependant on Tsatas sliding past 5

Big offer by Melb. Only thing is Phillipou will be gone by 14. I wonder who Melb want.

Thats a unders offer by melb. Upgrading 22 to 13 and 2 futures in the mid teens isnt enough for pick 4. That said if phillipou or humphrey is there at 6/7/8 i reckon melb will offer maybe some combo of all 3 of their r1s to get up and get them. It will test our resolve on clark if tsatas and humphrey are both there for us.

 

[Turbocat]

I’ll eat my hat if Clark isn’t on our list by the end of tomorrow.

You will eat you hat if he hasn't been picked in the first 7 and ..... etc ...



I dont want to see you frying up your deerstalker. when we did not have a chance to pick him

 

[Turbocat]

I don't get why the Dons seem to be happy to not take Humprey.

Seems to be the mid type they (and most) lack... A big bodied powerful goal kicking mid.

too much like Stringer?

 

[calder_daddy]

Anyone know what time the draft starts tomorrow night and correct me if I’m wrong but it’s just the first round yeah?