Rumour GFC 2025 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[michelzing]

Probably need someone like catempire or Lana for the exact numbers but id suspect the failure rate of players taken post 20-25 …. would mean from 5 picks we probably see 2 to 3 good players play over 100 games for them. Maybe 2 guys become top liners for them but if I were comparing it to the Cameron trade ..the players taken with the R1’s and the players we took with the R2 … I dont think anyone has really made that trade look bad.

Article on AFL mentioned the paradigm of Stars and Soldiers and thats where the AFL is or heading towards…. Id say that the biggest sin in that type of comp is to be with no Stars. We see what Danger has become , we probably were lucky but we need to replace him or at least try to. Again we are lucky if someone Reid supports us and wants to come to us. (apparently) If can get it done for the proposed theoretical trade .. id say its worth the risk. (Although I have doubts WC accept though.)

I wonder what it would take to get hold of the top10 R1 pick from Gold Coast ..as that would give us a real chance imo.

A few years back I did a "TINY" bit of pre analysis on the AFL draft for my Data Science Masters degree - I didn't go any further as I changed my topic due to data problems - but I did learn this (I can post a table if anybody is interested)

• Picks 1-2 - 75% of players will go on to play 150 + games
• Picks 3-5 - 55%
• Picks 6-10 - 43%
• Picks 11-15 - 47%
• Picks 16-20 - 28%
• Picks 21-25 - 28%
• Picks 25+ - 17%

this is purely a games played perspective (I also included Brownlow votes as separate Pre-Analysis) - The period of analysis was from 2000 to 2013
I picked 2000 as this was when the draft become more professional and was the Nick Reiwoldt draft and I finished at 2013 to enable the players to have a full career and complete a more accurate analysis
I was going to go a lot further and run some AI models but the cost of data ($'s) become to prohibitive and I focussed this particular unit on a different topic
However, what is plain to see from the top is that picks 1-2 are huge while there is not so big a gap from picks 3-15. It then drops a way a hell of a lot from there
So in relation to West Coast/Harley Reid - I would imagine that they would want 3 picks inside the top 15 or 2 inside the top 5

Cheers

 

[fpm84]

With the discussion on Tdek to Sts…. what would Rowan Marshall be worth ?

We should be going so hard at RoMa. He can walk into our #1 ruck role and be coached by the best coach in the league. What's not to like?

 

[D BRIDGE]

We should be going so hard at RoMa. He can walk into our #1 ruck role and be coached by the best coach in the league. What's not to like?

Not possible if we are pushing for Reid this year.

 

[frggr]

Some clubs have had more priority picks then we have had top 10 picks

Geez that is true, isn't it?

Wild to think about.

We can't even get all of our home games at home and there are clubs out there doing that.

 

[frggr]

A few years back I did a "TINY" bit of pre analysis on the AFL draft for my Data Science Masters degree - I didn't go any further as I changed my topic due to data problems - but I did learn this (I can post a table if anybody is interested)

• Picks 1-2 - 75% of players will go on to play 150 + games
• Picks 3-5 - 55%
• Picks 6-10 - 43%
• Picks 11-15 - 47%
• Picks 16-20 - 28%
• Picks 21-25 - 28%
• Picks 25+ - 17%

this is purely a games played perspective (I also included Brownlow votes as separate Pre-Analysis) - The period of analysis was from 2000 to 2013
I picked 2000 as this was when the draft become more professional and was the Nick Reiwoldt draft and I finished at 2013 to enable the players to have a full career and complete a more accurate analysis
I was going to go a lot further and run some AI models but the cost of data ($'s) become to prohibitive and I focussed this particular unit on a different topic
However, what is plain to see from the top is that picks 1-2 are huge while there is not so big a gap from picks 3-15. It then drops a way a hell of a lot from there
So in relation to West Coast/Harley Reid - I would imagine that they would want 3 picks inside the top 15 or 2 inside the top 5

Cheers

Just wanted to say that is really cool! even if tiny


(that's what she said)

 

[Hamingja]

A few years back I did a "TINY" bit of pre analysis on the AFL draft for my Data Science Masters degree - I didn't go any further as I changed my topic due to data problems - but I did learn this (I can post a table if anybody is interested)

• Picks 1-2 - 75% of players will go on to play 150 + games
• Picks 3-5 - 55%
• Picks 6-10 - 43%
• Picks 11-15 - 47%
• Picks 16-20 - 28%
• Picks 21-25 - 28%
• Picks 25+ - 17%

this is purely a games played perspective (I also included Brownlow votes as separate Pre-Analysis) - The period of analysis was from 2000 to 2013
I picked 2000 as this was when the draft become more professional and was the Nick Reiwoldt draft and I finished at 2013 to enable the players to have a full career and complete a more accurate analysis
I was going to go a lot further and run some AI models but the cost of data ($'s) become to prohibitive and I focussed this particular unit on a different topic
However, what is plain to see from the top is that picks 1-2 are huge while there is not so big a gap from picks 3-15. It then drops a way a hell of a lot from there
So in relation to West Coast/Harley Reid - I would imagine that they would want 3 picks inside the top 15 or 2 inside the top 5

Cheers

The draft position is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy IMO. Jack Watts played 174 games of AFL football. If he was picked at pick 20 instead of pick 1, I doubt he gets half that. His careeer would be more like the ex Geelong Mitch Brown without the charity games.

 

[Turbocat]

We should be going so hard at RoMa. He can walk into our #1 ruck role and be coached by the best coach in the league. What's not to like?

He is contracted so… StKilda would be in the birdie seat.

 

[Phill Hendo]

Although we have a long list of players who could nominally play as Rucks, I think we really have only Rhys (Old), Conway (injury prone and not proven and Pike (not ready) as guys you would list as rucks in the traditional sense. I would call Edwards and Molier hybrids rather than Rucks but both are not ready anyway. Neal, Blitz and SDK all fall into the hybrid box.

I would be amazed if we were to select a Ruck in the Mid Season draft because Scott would rather go with existing pinch hitters. I feel we are better positioned in this category this year than the last couple of years.

If the vibe about Harley is true, I imagine every move we make from now is about landing him while still having enough talent to survice 3 years without a first or second round pick. So mature age guys or recently overlooked with some potential types, both in any other position would be my guess in the Mid Season draft. Of course that assumes we make a slot available.

If we are serious about Harley and he is held to his contract this year, I would expect us to roll our first and second into next year. Getting him and being able to trade for anyone else are mutually exclusive. So its acadamy guys, long shots and free agents all the way.

Fortunately Wells and Mack love a challenge! Picking up Marra as a DFA at year end will be a great start.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Watching today. Yes to Worpel as a FA.

 

[Grimoz]

Watching today. Yes to Worpel as a FA.

He is on fire

 

[Strange Cat]

Worpel is a upgrade to whatever we have atm while Kniviett and Clark and co keep maturing and building their capacity

A free hit so I hope we get him, but Saints will be throwing more money so who knows

 

[My Tilly]

Oliver continuing to spud it up.

 

[Strange Cat]

Oliver continuing to spud it up.

He’s not alone ..Melb are really bad

Your point still stands tho

 

[Turbocat]

Hawks have more cap room than us. They can outbid for worpel if they want.
If they aren't offering him more it means they have a high value trade target lined up.

High Value Trade HVT? Fair enough.

If they lose Worpel to us or the Saints … whats the FA comp going to be? Band2 ..Worpel would not be Band1 would he?


They have Carltons R1 , add another Band2 comp ..is that enough to get Rowel from GC or to get into Reids ear?

 

[TomsBulgingDisc]

Oliver continuing to spud it up.

He’s not alone ..Melb are really bad

Your point still stands tho

Melb will have a fire sale on it's hands soon. I'm not sure I'd be interested in any of them no matter how cheap. 3yrs of Oliver would just stifle 3yrs of development of someone who'd be a long term player of us.

They have a list full of players the used to be good, but all jumped the shark within a season of each other.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Does anyone know Brad Green

Brad Green

Age

44

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.3

4star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

7.2

2star

K

5.8

3star

HB

1.4

2star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.4

5star

's postal address?

I'd like to send him a gift for vetoing the Oliver trade last year... bro saved us millions and a first-rounder.

This was an all-time save by Greeny... Well done mate.

 

[Lana]

Does anyone know Brad Green's postal address?

I'd like to send him a gift for vetoing the Oliver trade last year... bro saved us millions and a first-rounder.

This was an all-time save by Greeny... Well done mate.

If you send a uber eats order to their HQ in his name odds is It'd get past security

 

[cats_09]

High Value Trade HVT? Fair enough.

If the lose Worpel to us or the Saints … whats the FA comp going to be? Band2 ..Worpel would not be Band1 would he?


They have Carltons R1 , add another Band2 comp ..is that enough to get Rowel from GC or to get into Reids ear?

If Allen accepts an FA offer, you'd think he'd be going as a band 1, and the same for TDK

I don't see teams acting in a sane manner offering Worpel a 7 figure contract, though St Kilda could be that desperate if they keep striking out on all other targets - in that case he'd likely net Hawthorn band 1 comp

In reality, I see him as more of a band 2, end of first round comp or potentially even a band 3 comp depending on his contract

 

[Turbocat]

If Allen accepts an FA offer, you'd think he'd be going as a band 1, and the same for TDK

I don't see teams acting in a sane manner offering Worpel a 7 figure contract, though St Kilda could be that desperate if they keep striking out on all other targets - in that case he'd likely net Hawthorn band 1 comp

In reality, I see him as more of a band 2, end of first round comp or potentially even a band 3 comp depending on his contract

If Allen goes to Haw then they might lose Worpel for zero …his destination probably has a domino effect. So if Allen does go to Hawks … I wonder if they would prefer us to trade for Worpel without matching. Even a R2 is still worth something. Watching him v Melb he sort of played a big body inside , another Atkins type. I can see the logic he is bridge between the big body of Danger and our younger guys. If he cost us nothing then its a no brainer.

I could see the Saints rolling the cash down his driveway .. they must be sick of missing out. They must be hoping if they do land someone , it might just start a chain of successful acquisitions. I wonder how much sal cap room they have. Offer Rowel the same sort of deal they are offering Tdek.

 

[TomsBulgingDisc]

If Allen goes to Haw then they might lose Worpel for zero …his destination probably has a domino effect. So if Allen does go to Hawks … I wonder if they would prefer us to trade for Worpel without matching. Even a R2 is still worth something. Watching him v Melb he sort of played a big body inside , another Atkins type. I can see the logic he is bridge between the big body of Danger and our younger guys. If he cost us nothing then its a no brainer.

I could see the Saints rolling the cash down his driveway .. they must be sick of missing out. They must be hoping if they do land someone , it might just start a chain of successful acquisitions. I wonder how much sal cap room they have. Offer Rowel the same sort of deal they are offering Tdek.

They threw the kitchen sink to get Hill a few years ago and he hasn't really delivered. I think they'll be gun shy to splash a heap of cash at anyone other than a genuine A grade, established key forward who can deliver from the get go.

 

[Burtyl78]

That's a definitive statement.

You have faith in your source?

Yes

 

[Gazza Greatness]

The draft position is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy IMO. Jack Watts played 174 games of AFL football. If he was picked at pick 20 instead of pick 1, I doubt he gets half that. His careeer would be more like the ex Geelong Mitch Brown without the charity games.

There's certainly a bit in what you say Hamingja: and you can even extend that to Geelong's pick 8 with Jhye Clark who has questionably received more AFL games early in his career than if he let's say was drafted at pick 40. No knock on Jhye Clark the footballer or to how good a footballer he may or may-not become. And although it's not always the norm, I've gotta say I tend to agree with 'your above comment' that over the journey being an earlier draft pick, rather than 'not'..... certainly has its advantages to when receiving early AFL games that they are not necessarily entitled to while they are developing.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I reckon we'll be able to trade back in with some canny trading (clubs needing points etc)

Plus grabbing FA players.

Plus some of our best work has been done late in the draft

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Hawks have more cap room than us. They can outbid for worpel if they want.
If they aren't offering him more it means they have a high value trade target lined up.

It's pretty curious they haven't offered him a contract. They're up to something

 

[ep2018]

Also, I think some of the offers proposed for Reid are about correct.

I think we probably try something like:

2025FR
2026FR + 2026SR
2027FR + 2027SR

Reason being I think we would like to hold this year’s second rounder to play around with NGA bids.

Also, don’t see us getting third rounds back as west coast will argue that could be just sliding back 1-6 picks. Which is a fair shout by them.

As people have said correctly, an offer like this won’t be better at the end of 2026, it will just be more affected negatively by the Tasmanian affected draft.

We'll send you our 2026 and 2027 third rounders with Harley but I'd say this will be the deal if he asks to leave to you blokes.