Analysis Giants Coaching. Your thoughts.

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Giant Strides

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I guess part of the question is whether there's a difference in pressure from within the club itself, the media, and the fans. If we look at Leon, there's certainly been media pressure on for a few years now (the whole ''keys to the Ferrari'' media line). These last two years we've seen increasing dissatisfaction from us fans. The latter, and to a large extent the former, went away with making finals again this year. And the overall view of performance seems to be making 5 out of the last 6 finals series, and a 7-6 W-L record in finals, is pretty solid. We've therefore seen no indication of club dissatisfaction with Leon. And you'd argue similarly for Scott at Geelong, and Hinkley at Port.

But I certainly hold the mathematical argument that only 1 club wins it each year, and so a ''fair'' proportion is 1 every 18 years. Lions, Hawks and Tigers have distorted that in the last 2 decades (which is actually natural, when you think about it - so the cycle should be more 2 flags every 36 years, or 3 in 54 years).

But I do agree with ClockworkOrange that at some point, surely, a club will question whether a coach has had enough time to win a flag, and even continuing to make finals becomes insufficient to keep the faith. No coach will be given 18, 36 or 54 years to win a flag!
 

ClockworkOrange

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Mathematically, you win 1 in 18 (all things being equal), so 1 in 25 is not too far away.
I just don't understand why those 3 should be under pressure.
They have consistently had there teams competitive and in the mix. Only 1 team can win it each year.
That’s a good question.

I think the answer is that these teams have had strong lists that have been able to repeatedly push to Finals, Prelims and GFs and yet not convert it to Flags - except once a decade ago.

I think that’s the ‘mathematical anomaly’ for these coaches.

Contrast it with a Simpson, Clarkson or Hardwick who have a higher Finals to Flags conversion rate.

The pressure is particularly acute on a coach like Hinkley or Leon who has been in the role for a near decade without the proof of a Flag.

All of that is debatable, but that’s the thinking I believe.



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ClockworkOrange

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I guess part of the question is whether there's a difference in pressure from within the club itself, the media, and the fans. If we look at Leon, there's certainly been media pressure on for a few years now (the whole ''keys to the Ferrari'' media line). These last two years we've seen increasing dissatisfaction from us fans. The latter, and to a large extent the former, went away with making finals again this year. And the overall view of performance seems to be making 5 out of the last 6 finals series, and a 7-6 W-L record in finals, is pretty solid. We've therefore seen no indication of club dissatisfaction with Leon. And you'd argue similarly for Scott at Geelong, and Hinkley at Port.

But I certainly hold the mathematical argument that only 1 club wins it each year, and so a ''fair'' proportion is 1 every 18 years. Lions, Hawks and Tigers have distorted that in the last 2 decades (which is actually natural, when you think about it - so the cycle should be more 2 flags every 36 years, or 3 in 54 years).

But I do agree with ClockworkOrange that at some point, surely, a club will question whether a coach has had enough time to win a flag, and even continuing to make finals becomes insufficient to keep the faith. No coach will be given 18, 36 or 54 years to win a flag!
I largely agree.

Ultimately, a club can hire one of three types of coaches - an average one, a below average one or an above average one.

Average is flag ever 18 years, above average is maybe 1 in 10-15 years, below average is 20-never.

Because there will never be an 18 year coaching contract, most clubs will tend to draw strong conclusions after 8-9 years (hiring contract plus two extensions).

Many won’t give it nearly that long (insert Carlton logo here).

And all will give their right arm for a coach proven to be above average (insert Clarko photo here).


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fridgeman

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I would like the club to look at an experienced assistant but I see it as unlikely as the difficulty of recruiting 1 to Sydney in the current climate fianancially and ease of travel and if 2022 is last chance saloon for Cameron they may not want to be involved in moving inter state and then upending again if a coaching clean out occurs
A thought for 2022 is if Pyke stays at the Swans he enjoys Sydney more he could be offered the job for then

I think a pass mark for Cameron for next year is not scrapping into the finals, minimum semis, minimum 110%, Coniglio plays like the leader the team needs, and no losses to the bottom teams like this season with Hawks, Suns and the Roos draw

A fit list and home games should help with those targets
 

ClockworkOrange

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A thought for 2022 is if Pyke stays at the Swans he enjoys Sydney more he could be offered the job for then
Putting our club completely aside for a moment, the Pyke situation at the Swans is a hard one to understand.

I asked on the Swans board recently if they thought he was their next coach and the answer I got was ‘no’.

He pulled out of the Carlton race if memory serves me, so I’m not sure if he really, really wants to be an AFL HC again.

Is he living in Sydney for lifestyle/family as a permanent shift or just to be at the Swans temporarily?

He has business interests outside of footy by all accounts.

Happy to be set straight if anyone has a better handle on Pyke’s future intentions.


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Danny88

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I would like the club to look at an experienced assistant but I see it as unlikely as the difficulty of recruiting 1 to Sydney in the current climate fianancially and ease of travel and if 2022 is last chance saloon for Cameron they may not want to be involved in moving inter state and then upending again if a coaching clean out occurs
A thought for 2022 is if Pyke stays at the Swans he enjoys Sydney more he could be offered the job for then

I think a pass mark for Cameron for next year is not scrapping into the finals, minimum semis, minimum 110%, Coniglio plays like the leader the team needs, and no losses to the bottom teams like this season with Hawks, Suns and the Roos draw

A fit list and home games should help with those targets
Doubt the suns are a bottom team next year tbh

And nobody gets fired cos they lose to north

That judgement of success lacks context
 

fridgeman

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Doubt the suns are a bottom team next year tbh

And nobody gets fired cos they lose to north

That judgement of success lacks context
My Suns comment was in terms of the loss this year, injuries and momentum effect teams greatly through the year (Tigers this year) so who knows who will be struggling in 2022 but at this stage I would say if the team losses to the Crows finals maybe out of the question

I don't think Leon will be sacked off 1 loss but the cause will be no flags, 1 grand final appearence (maybe 1/4 of a appearence) in 10 years of being HC of a very talented team and a poor season in 2022 many will think the club is justified in that move but also I actually think Cameron will be ready for a change with the job incredibly demanding and Covid has not helped and add an extended time away from home this and last year he may want to spend time with family
Was his family with them last year or this year? I think 3 teenage children would be alot with what is going on

Those were some factors that I think are important to me for Leon to be judged as a succesful coach in season 2022, or a Pass mark
 

GWS Goose

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I would like the club to look at an experienced assistant but I see it as unlikely as the difficulty of recruiting 1 to Sydney in the current climate fianancially and ease of travel and if 2022 is last chance saloon for Cameron they may not want to be involved in moving inter state and then upending again if a coaching clean out occurs
A thought for 2022 is if Pyke stays at the Swans he enjoys Sydney more he could be offered the job for then

I think a pass mark for Cameron for next year is not scrapping into the finals, minimum semis, minimum 110%, Coniglio plays like the leader the team needs, and no losses to the bottom teams like this season with Hawks, Suns and the Roos draw

A fit list and home games should help with those targets
its more than win loss.

If we have a good run of injuries you'd expect to comfortably make the 8. If we don't, questions asked.

This year we scraped in, but I think it was an amazing coaching performance given the adversity. Grabbing a win in the finals also helps.
 

General Giant

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Do you still want him out?
lol really?

I think I’ve been pretty honest that I’ve been a Leon out guy, I’ve also said earlier in this thread that he has done an amazing job this year with all the trials and tribulations the club has gone through.

Yes I do still think a new set of eyes are needed. But I also think he has earned the right to finish his contract next season.
 

dlanod

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lol really?

I think I’ve been pretty honest that I’ve been a Leon out guy, I’ve also said earlier in this thread that he has done an amazing job this year with all the trials and tribulations the club has gone through.

Yes I do still think a new set of eyes are needed. But I also think he has earned the right to finish his contract next season.
If we see the flexibility exhibited in the second half of the year across the first half of next year, it becomes a lot more interesting question.
 

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GWS Goose

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Would be a good get.

TBF, the backs coach is doing a fabulous job.

The development of our young Backman has been exceptional, our performance down back has been excellent.

All this despite the fact that on paper, our ack 6 is the weakest part of our side. Even Taylor has only played 50 games.
 

JC100

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Very good call to get some experience into the box. Still think a don pike, Michael Voss, Alan Richardson style day to day would make a big difference day to day too
 

Ichabod Noodle

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Was Craig Lambert in a full time role last season?
He wasn’t on the coaching panel last/this year at all, he was doing other stuff around the club in the welfare area (I think), but with the chaos of the on the road covid crap, he stepped in helped out with some of the training sessions as a bit of coach (all hands on deck sort of thing) - that now seems to be made more “official”.
 

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