List Mgmt. Gibbs - 2017 Trade Discussions! V2.0

[pjcrows]

If we win a GF in the next couple of years, this is a win. If not, then I think we've paid too much.

Thanks, Terry Wallace

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Go lay down. In those scenarios you are expecting us to play in grand finals in every year and for Gibbs to be injury free.

Think about it. He will need to play a 5th season to get over 100 games. At 34 I dont see it happening.

Maybe get off the meds mate.
Even if you wind it back he's comfortably there at 33.

 

[Runnin Blue]

LMAO.

In 24 hours on Trade Radio, Gibbs goes from:

Gibbs (Carlton) = Superstar

to

Gibbs (Adelaide) = Good player

Hilarious. And Plow sounds like Grampa Simpson.

 

[ad victoriam]

**** Wallace is an idiot, he thinks we’ve given up next years first and not one of the idiots has corrected him

Cornes is not much better saying we need 3 more pick this year.

 

[pjcrows]

To get a guage of the grasp Terry Wallace has on the lists across the league, all you have to do is listen to him do a List Analysis of an interstate club. The bloke is just a talking head.

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

Cornes is not much better saying we need 3 more pick this year.

But they've got Watts, Motlop and Rockliff now.. That'll get their premierships sorted for the next 8 years. Just ask Kane.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

This deal is virtually #10 on its own

IF

And it’s an IF

We can get 12 for Cameron, that means we have more or less traded Cameron straight up for Gibbs

Let that sink in

Cameron & change for Gibbs

Unless I’m missing something I’d call that A+ for Reid

Not quite.

If we assume that we finish 2nd next year and Carlton finish 16th (which were the 2 teams 2017 finishing positions), then this is the result:

We gave up 2017 Pick 10
We give up 2017 Pick 16 and get 2018 Pick 21 in return
We give up 2018 Pick 35 and get 2018 Pick 39 in return
We give up 2017 Pick 73 and get 2017 Pick 77 in return

So Gibbs has potentially cost us Pick 10, plus a 5 pick downgrade (pushes it out a year, but let's ignore that for simplicity), a 4 pick downgrade and a 4 pick downgrade.

The problem is that the Crows have very little potential upside next year (can only go 1 higher), and Carlton have a lot of potential upside. So if the Crows finish 5th and Carlton 12th, then it looks like this:

We gave up 2017 Pick 10
We give up 2017 Pick 16 and get 2018 Pick 25 in return
We give up 2018 Pick 32 and get 2018 Pick 44 in return
We give up 2017 Pick 73 and get 2017 Pick 77 in return

So Gibbs would cost us Pick 10, plus a 9 pick downgrade, an 12 pick downgrade and a 4 pick downgrade.

The Pick 73 downgrade is inconsequential as we're going to be using that pick to upgrade someone like Greenwood anyway.

However, despite that, I think that Pick 10 all by itself was too much, let alone downgrading 2 other picks potentially around 10 places each.

 

[Magma]

lever: was going anyways, got 2 first rounders.
gibbs: was contracted, wanted to come, had to pay overs. 2 first rounders.

to think they reported carlton wanted 2 first rounders + a mcgovern type player last season, and now the wanting a player part has now been forgotten. funny that.

 

[feenix67]

Terry wallace who actually knows his s**t said "never has a 29 year old been traded for 2 first round picks". Sums us up really. The club of firsts.

Terry Wallace knows his s**t? It took Richmond 5 years to undo his mess.

It's a first plus a probable 5 pick downgrade on a first into a stronger draft, full of SA talent. I mean, you're welcome to your opinion, but at least base it on facts, not hyperbole.

 

[Tiger_4_Life]

Good work on the Gibbs deal, forget the knockers, sometimes you just gotta make the ******* deal and go all in. Protected your first next year and Gibbs will no doubt give your midfield and extra dynamic.

 

[relapse]

LMAO.

In 24 hours on Trade Radio, Gibbs goes from:

Gibbs (Carlton) = Superstar

to

Gibbs (Adelaide) = Good player

Hilarious. And Plow sounds like Grampa Simpson.

I don't agree Plow has been consistent this year that Gibbs was worth 1 first round pick and at a push 16 and a 2nd rounder.

 

[relapse]

Terry Wallace knows his s**t? It took Richmond 5 years to undo his mess.

It's a first plus a probable 5 pick downgrade on a first into a stronger draft, full of SA talent. I mean, you're welcome to your opinion, but at least base it on facts, not hyperbole.

I think as far as the value of players and picks go I think he's spot on.

It's amazing that the narrative from this board was we got two first round picks for Lever yet Gibbs is "a first rounder and a downgrade".

Both deals were essentially the same pick value, but we've talked one up and we're now trying to talk the other one down.

 

[GrommoT]

Good or bad, a very nice little bonus of this thread is someone is gonna be very melty and stressed ...



Hey R_50/50_CH ... EAD

... and a bag of Willies

 

[Murray2503]

Great post, very balanced. One disagreement.

It cannot be known what difference Gibbs might have made in the GF. He is no superstar but he is a very solid and reliable footballer. Gibbs true quality is that he can take on, and beat, the superstars without being one himself. Years ago he took on and beat Adam Goodes (at his rampaging best). He might not have been a bad choice for Dusty. You have got yourself a player signed for 4 years who will give you full value for those 4 years.

For all the froth of draft picks and points Carlton have lost Gibbs service for the next 4 years and he will be sorely missed.

Gibbs would have made no difference in the gf loss. What killled us was losing gov and smith plus the otten selection.

 

[GROTTO]

Maybe get off the meds mate.
Even if you wind it back he's comfortably there at 33.

Move away from the keyboard, Stop posting you are drunk.

Expecting Gibbs is play 100 games for us is going to be a great challenge. He is 29 in R1 next year.

 

[Magma]

Gibbs would have made no difference in the gf loss. What killled us was losing gov and smith plus the otten selection.

neither would pick 10 or 16.

if we were struggling for finals and did this deal we would be nuts. 10 and 16 means two bits of * all to a side chasing a flag.

 

[dogs105]

Terry Wallace knows his s**t? It took Richmond 5 years to undo his mess.

It's a first plus a probable 5 pick downgrade on a first into a stronger draft, full of SA talent. I mean, you're welcome to your opinion, but at least base it on facts, not hyperbole.

Terry Wallace knows he's s**t.

 

[feenix67]

I think as far as the value of players and picks go I think he's spot on.

Nah, he doesn't have as much knowledge on young players as he would like you to think. He couldn't pick Tom Doedee out of a line up, when discussing how we were going to cover Lever. He's just a talker.

 

[Sanders]

Not quite.

If we assume that we finish 2nd next year and Carlton finish 16th (which were the 2 teams 2017 finishing positions), then this is the result:

We gave up 2017 Pick 10
We give up 2017 Pick 16 and get 2018 Pick 21 in return
We give up 2018 Pick 35 and get 2018 Pick 39 in return
We give up 2017 Pick 73 and get 2017 Pick 77 in return

So Gibbs has potentially cost us Pick 10, plus a 5 pick downgrade (pushes it out a year, but let's ignore that for simplicity), a 4 pick downgrade and a 4 pick downgrade.

The problem is that the Crows have very little potential upside next year (can only go 1 higher), and Carlton have a lot of potential upside. So if the Crows finish 5th and Carlton 12th, then it looks like this:

We gave up 2017 Pick 10
We give up 2017 Pick 16 and get 2018 Pick 25 in return
We give up 2018 Pick 32 and get 2018 Pick 44 in return
We give up 2017 Pick 73 and get 2017 Pick 77 in return

So Gibbs would cost us Pick 10, plus a 9 pick downgrade, an 12 pick downgrade and a 4 pick downgrade.

The Pick 73 downgrade is inconsequential as we're going to be using that pick to upgrade someone like Greenwood anyway.

However, despite that, I think that Pick 10 all by itself was too much, let alone downgrading 2 other picks potentially around 10 places each.

Blah blah save the copy n paste I was unconvinced the last time you posted it

Carlton could finish 12th and we could finish 5th

They could also win the flag and we finish 18th

Adding Gibbs and subtracting him should give a reasonable sense of expected outcomes

 

[Team DJ]

neither would pick 10 or 16.

if we were struggling for finals and did this deal we would be nuts. 10 and 16 means two bits of **** all to a side chasing a flag.

Exactly! Bryce Gibbs and Jordan Gallucci had the same impact on grand final day.
Hence why it had to happen last year.

 

[happy_knackers]

Terry Wallace knows he's s**t.

 

[TrainRoo32]

neither would pick 10 or 16.

if we were struggling for finals and did this deal we would be nuts. 10 and 16 means two bits of **** all to a side chasing a flag.

Your argument has merit if you think we are a stronger team next year! If we lose Cameron also we are definitely weaker than last year!
In that case why not trade next years 1st picks and really load up!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Blah blah save the copy n paste I was unconvinced the last time you posted it

Carlton could finish 12th and we could finish 5th

They could also win the flag and we finish 18th

Adding Gibbs and subtracting him should give a reasonable sense of expected outcomes

And if Carlton finish first and we finish 18 it gets even worse.

At the very best outcome for us (we finish 1st, Carlton 18th) we're downgrading 2 picks 1 place and it just gets worse for every pick we move down and every one Carlton moves up.

Carlton have almost no risk and we bear it all. You can't just ignore it because the pick downgrades are there.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

 

[Magma]

Your argument has merit if you think we are a stronger team next year! If we lose Cameron also we are definitely weaker than last year!
In that case why not trade next years 1st picks and really load up!

i have absolutely no idea how next season plays out.

i do think that injury permitting, gibbs will have more of an impact than whoever pick 10 and 16 is.

losing cameron isnt ideal but we do have similar profile players who can step in.