List Mgmt. Gibbs - 2017 Trade Discussions! V2.0

[Danoz]

Well, pick 18 is pick 18 at trade but it becomes say 21 so the pick has inevitably decreased

I still don't understand this argument. There's only really four things to think about. I'm sure someone else can explain this more eloquently than I.

1. The academy kids shouldn't be considered within the same group of kids eligible for the draft, unless they aren't going to be selected by the team that owns the rights. The only times the club won't select them is if they are only average players to begin with or if they don't have the currency to select them. And the second event usually only occurs if they have already selected several academy players. They plan the picks they are taking into the draft to ensure they can cover the players they want to take.

2. There's only one real possible negative point clubs without academy picks need to consider. If they are expecting to take a father-son later on, their points needed to match the bid are reduced.
This, however, is often made up for by the fact a matching team will have to use several picks to make up the bid, in effect increasing the value of following picks.

3. If an academy player is bid on at any point, be it top 5 or pick 50, the players selected around them are still the same players. It's just that players 5-10 or 50-55 go at 6-11 or 51-55 instead.

4. If a club does not match a bid on an academy player, the remaining draft pool is actually better because a player available to all clubs is not instead taken with that pick.

This seems quite simple to me, though I can understand the layman not really getting it.

 

[TexForPM]

I still don't understand this argument. There's only really four things to think about. I'm sure someone else can explain this more eloquently than I.

1. The academy kids shouldn't be considered within the same group of kids eligible for the draft, unless they aren't going to be selected by the team that owns the rights. The only times the club won't select them is if they are only average players to begin with or if they don't have the currency to select them. And the second event usually only occurs if they have already selected several academy players. They plan the picks they are taking into the draft to ensure they can cover the players they want to take.

2. There's only one real possible negative point clubs without academy picks need to consider. If they are expecting to take a father-son later on, their points needed to match the bid are reduced.
This, however, is often made up for by the fact a matching team will have to use several picks to make up the bid, in effect increasing the value of following picks.

3. If an academy player is bid on at any point, be it top 5 or pick 50, the players selected around them are still the same players. It's just that players 5-10 or 50-55 go at 6-11 or 51-55 instead.

4. If a club does not match a bid on an academy player, the remaining draft pool is actually better because a player available to all clubs is not instead taken with that pick.

This seems quite simple to me, though I can understand the layman not really getting it.

Yes I realise....
But the number has changed.

That is all I am saying. Pick 9 is under a top 10 pick but when it becomes 13 or 14 that is the pick. Hence why we don't have a top ten pick.
You can't have it both ways

 

[Sanders]

Academy kids should 200% be considered part of the pool. No question

The pool of players is the pool of players. Just like every year.

And the ability to pick a top 3 player from that cohort has a certain value. If however due to some recent rule changes and other clubs get to jump to queue, that doesn’t change the underlying talent order

If my top 3 pick becomes pick 5 then it has less value than if it were still pick 3.

When do I get to pick from the pool? Am I getting the 3rd or the 5th best player

 

[Danoz]

Yes I realise....
But the number has changed.

That is all I am saying. Pick 9 is under a top 10 pick but when it becomes 13 or 14 that is the pick. Hence why we don't have a top ten pick.
You can't have it both ways

History will only see the number a player is picked at. I get it. But clubs aren't concerned about that I'm sure. Only media and fans. If we get our pick at 14 that we wanted at 9 then it's all academic really.

 

[Bicks]

Well, pick 18 is pick 18 at trade but it becomes say 21 so the pick has inevitably decreased

Yeah, but they are players we don't have access to if the club whose academy they are bound to decides to match which would be an extremely rare event for them not to with top end talent. Doesn't look to be as many if any academy kids in the top end this draft now Brander has been ruled out for GWS and the only father/son with a chance to go in the 1st round would be Patrick Naish I would think and he's no certainty either.

 

[TexForPM]

Yeah, but they are players we don't have access to if the club whose academy they are bound to decides to match which would be an extremely rare event for them not to with top end talent. Doesn't look to be as many if any academy kids in the top end this draft now Brander has been ruled out for GWS and the only father/son with a chance to go in the 1st round would be Patrick Naish I would think and he's no certainty either.

I realise it the same pick number etc.
Just saying it does actually effect pick number..

One of the reasons everyone always says Adelaide doesn't have a pick in the top 10.

Because the eventual pick wasn't 9 it was 11.

I'm not saying the value changes but the number decreases regardless of the quality.

History remember milera as a pick 11 not a pick 9

 

[TexForPM]

Play on!

 

[Bicks]

Academy kids should 200% be considered part of the pool. No question

The pool of players is the pool of players. Just like every year.

And the ability to pick a top 3 player from that cohort has a certain value. If however due to some recent rule changes and other clubs get to jump to queue, that doesn’t change the underlying talent order

If my top 3 pick becomes pick 5 then it has less value than if it were still pick 3.

When do I get to pick from the pool? Am I getting the 3rd or the 5th best player

I get what you're saying but the draft is not an exact science, it's all down to the individual recruiting teams judgment of the available talent in the end and Academy kids are not likely to be a factor this year. i.e Richard Tambling - Buddy Franklin.

 

[Sanders]

I get what you're saying but the draft is not an exact science, it's all down to the individual recruiting teams judgment of the available talent in the end and Academy kids are not likely to be a factor this year. i.e Richard Tambling - Buddy Franklin.

Yes but that’s after the event. The question isn’t who’s right, but what do they think?

Richmond valued Tambling over Buddy.

He’s their guy and the ability to choose who they preferred has additional value.

Doesn’t matter if they were wrong.

Otherwise you’re arguing they could end up being just as happy with 5 rather than 3 - which is true. but we’re talking about the right to choose not choosing right

 

[Sanders]

History will only see the number a player is picked at. I get it. But clubs aren't concerned about that I'm sure. Only media and fans. If we get our pick at 14 that we wanted at 9 then it's all academic really.

if we have pick 9, and estimate that our guy will still be there at 14 we are not trading down for free

We will want to be compensated for swapping pick 9 for 14

 

[Malifice]

IMHO 4 years is a stretch.. I expect 3 at the absolute most. Most likely 2 given his age.

Gibbs turns 31 in 2019. I doubt he retires or his form drops off for a few years after that.

If you think he only has 2 years then Sloane only has 3 left (Rory is 1 year younger almost to the day).

 

[Danoz]

if we have pick 9, and estimate that our guy will still be there at 14 we are not trading down for free

We will want to be compensated for swapping pick 9 for 14

Yeah we did. We got 35 for 53 in the bargain. Got this amazing kid called Wigg.

 

[Sanders]

Yeah we did. We got 35 for 53 in the bargain. Got this amazing kid called Wigg.

lol well played.

I just meant we know there is value in the difference so they're not equivalent

 

[Mego Red]

Gibbs turns 31 in 2019. I doubt he retires or his form drops off for a few years after that.

If you think he only has 2 years then Sloane only has 3 left (Rory is 1 year younger almost to the day).

As long as we get 100 games out of him ...

 

[1970crow]

Well, pick 18 is pick 18 at trade but it becomes say 21 so the pick has inevitably decreased

But it also might be pick 18. The effects of academy players being taken and pushing your pick back is not cumulative. There's become this general view that once you start getting to the middle part of the first round, there's perpetually 3 academy players being plucked from the pool with picks later than your own. That is not how it works. At points, there might be 2 academy players who have been taken with later picks than who's actually the next pick, but there will be picks where it's perfectly even and the club picking is looking at the full and complete list of available talent.

 

[1970crow]

Yes I realise....
But the number has changed.

That is all I am saying. Pick 9 is under a top 10 pick but when it becomes 13 or 14 that is the pick. Hence why we don't have a top ten pick.
You can't have it both ways

Yeh, that's correct, it is possible that you could have pick 9, but the next 4 or 5 players on your list are all academy players and they are selected by those clubs with later picks than you. It's possible, but it's absolutely unlikely, it will likely never happen. I don't think you understand the process.

 

[Johnny Rutten]

As long as we get 100 games out of him ...

Just some perspective on average games played for draft picks 16-20 (1996-2016 national drafts).

Pick 16 - 62 games
Pick 17 - 51
Pick 18 - 60
Pick 19 - 67
Pick 20 - 72

80 games out of Gibbs would be good enough.

 

[TexForPM]

Yeh, that's correct, it is possible that you could have pick 9, but the next 4 or 5 players on your list are all academy players and they are selected by those clubs with later picks than you. It's possible, but it's absolutely unlikely, it will likely never happen. I don't think you understand the process.

What pick was milera

 

[TexForPM]

But it also might be pick 18. The effects of academy players being taken and pushing your pick back is not cumulative. There's become this general view that once you start getting to the middle part of the first round, there's perpetually 3 academy players being plucked from the pool with picks later than your own. That is not how it works. At points, there might be 2 academy players who have been taken with later picks than who's actually the next pick, but there will be picks where it's perfectly even and the club picking is looking at the full and complete list of available talent.

Yeah I know you're arguing with yourself.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

As long as we get 100 games out of him ...

Well let's look at it another way. Gibbs has played 231 games of afl footy. I assume we'd all agree that he won't be like Thommo and putter across the 300 game line. Equally, it is very unlikely that he will be screaming along at 350 games. Therefore you'd think there's a minimum of 70 good games left in him and tops of 120. That's 3-5 seasons. Bare minimum 3 good years, absolute max of 5.

 

[DD#23]

Gibbs turns 31 in 2019. I doubt he retires or his form drops off for a few years after that.

If you think he only has 2 years then Sloane only has 3 left (Rory is 1 year younger almost to the day).

ugh... I didn't need that pointed out to me.

 

[Malifice]

ugh... I didn't need that pointed out to me.

I cant see Sloane slowing down any time soon. Nor Gibbs for that matter.

Gibbs has been remarkably resilient over the journey. I'd be shocked if his form dropped off before season 2021. Barring injury, he should play well into his 30's.

 

[GROTTO]

I cant see Sloane slowing down any time soon. Nor Gibbs for that matter.

Gibbs has been remarkably resilient over the journey. I'd be shocked if his form dropped off before season 2021. Barring injury, he should play well into his 30's.

Are you a second car salesman out of curiosity?

 

[GROTTO]

Gibbs is 29 at the start of R1 2018. He has two good years left and third will be serviceable. He is probably just past his peak or right on it, definitely will passed it in 2019. Thats not to say he wont be good, but we wont be getting the best of Gibbs. Carlton lost big time when we offered overs for him last year.

Our first rounder is plenty, ie pick 18 hopefully. No way is Gibbs worth a pick 6/10 ie Lever compensation.

SOS can go and f**k himself.

 

[TexForPM]

Haha SOS.
Not doing the deal last year is classic Carlton management. Putting ego above the club, in a hole since 1999