List Mgmt. Gibbs - 2017 trade discussions! (Gibbs swapped for Wigg or 2nd)

[Roovolution]

This is assuming the AFL doesn't change the father-son bidding system moments before trade week when it becomes apparent we'll land a gem for cheap. You can never be sure.

I can already picture Sam McClure bitching incessantly about it from about round 16

Already looks like this year will be the first Twilight Grand Final. I don't want to us to be a part of anything different just as we get to the Grand Final.

 

[Vhaluus]

Already looks like this year will be the first Twilight Grand Final. I don't want to us to be a part of anything different just as we get to the Grand Final.

It's such amateur hour. Big decisions like this should be made before the start of a season.

 

[mattymac]

While you are correct and a "first" varies a lot in value. People are usually more specific when discussing higher value firsts e.g. "top 10 pick", "top 5, 3 etc".

Exactly. Everyone knows when you're talking about a First rounder and adelaide it's in the teens

 

[Golumless]

Well treloar went for 5 & 7 so no it's not similar to the 14 & 17/18 or whatever it would have been.

That's kinda the point it's a **** load more

Deledio who is crocked and 2 years older went for what we offered

And even a club shil like you can't believe a broke down, aged Deledio was worth the same as Gibbs

Other clubs aren't afraid of business risks we s**t our pants over.

That's the point

I do wonder what Deledio would have been worth if he didn't go to AFL's Frankenstein, seeing how flushed they are with talent/draft picks.

What was it, they still had 2-3 picks in the top 10?

 

[Sanders]

Milera, Doedee and Gallucci. Hard to know what would have happened if we just had our original picks.

Not hard when you have actual facts to rely on

 

[Sanders]

The term "two firsts" needs to ******* stop.

I swear some people can't even comprehend that pick 15 and pick 15ish (probably more like 18ish with Bryce on board and taking academy s**t into account) is actually less valuable than pick 6 and say pick 35. But, but it's two firsts, and the other option isn't! **** me dead.

This absolute wankfest over whether "two firsts" was or wasn't too much to pay for Bryce Gibbs is therefore moronic, pointless and meaningless.


Personally I would've happily given up both of those picks, as long as we had a plan in place to still be able to acquire Jackson Edwards. It has been proven in recent times that the discounts given for academy and father/son players make it pretty easy to do this from outside the round the player is bid on. Our 2017 second rounder, plus some points from either a "picks for picks" trade or our 3rd rounder would likely net us Edwards (currently projected as approximately the 15th best player in the draft). As a guide, we bid on Harry Perryman at pick 14 last year. GWS matched this with picks 38, 44 and 51. To put it bluntly, it ain't that hard.

In addition to my belief that Edwards still would have been very much attainable in spite of the proposed trade for Gibbs, I am absolutely not in the "Gallucci is going to be a star" camp, so I wouldn't have cared much about missing out on a player such as him (although we would never have been talking about Gallucci if the trade took place, we'd be talking about whoever Carlton took with our pick, which is another piece of ridiculousness that occurs in discussions about trades that didn't transpire). Anyone arguing "Gallucci will be better than Gibbs anyway" is not only absolutely dreaming, they're missing the point. Will Gallucci, or whoever Carlton took at pick 15, be better than Gibbs when Sloane, Tex, Talia, Betts and co are in their prime and we're in a flag window? No. This is fact. He'll be playing SANFL with perhaps the odd AFL game with 12 possessions here and there.

Gibbs, with a good side around him, would be a high quality acquisition, in AA and Club Champion discussions, I have little doubt about that. His last 2 years at Carlton have been very high quality in actual fact. Apparently a lot of people haven't noticed. Was he worth pick 15 and something between 15 and 18ish, addressing a glaring and immediate need for a side that is strong in attack and has high quality pieces down back NOW? I guess everyone has their own thoughts about that. I think he's worth more than Deledio. I think he's worth more to us than any other side in the league. Make of that what you will.

Well said

 

[Sanders]

"what we offered"? so all firsts are the same when we talk about Delidio? how about 3rds are all 3rds the same? because ours was pick 44 the second pick of the 3rd round, GWS's future was expected to be the last of the 3rd round like their 1st. You've also forgotten about the part where Richmond are paying $200-$300k of Delidios wage.

Interesting point you make. I hadn't considered that draft picks might have different value within the same round

If only your brilliant insight was available earlier or even on topic now.

However in this case GWS picks might not be far away from ours, what do you think?

 

[Sanders]

Pick a number out of 10 and look at the kid who was taken at that pick each year and compare it to the kid we took that year, the difference won't be huge in the quality of player, we'd actually be ahead of quite a few of the numbers.

So you think we should trade down our picks for maximum value?

 

[Pdub]

Interesting point you make. I hadn't considered that draft picks might have different value within the same round

If only your brilliant insight was available earlier or even on topic now.

However in this case GWS picks might not be far away from ours, what do you think?

GWS were premiership favourites in October, so that's where Richmond would expect their picks to land when they were valuing them. The last picks of each round. The picks we were offering for Gibbs were not the last picks of each round, they weren't future unknown picks, they were pick 13 & pick 43 (if the rumours are to believed). The value Richmond would have placed on GWSs 2017 picks would have been about pick 19 & pick 59.

So when you weigh up the entire picture, GWS gave lower picks, they got Richmond to pay a large chunk of Delidio's wage to sweeten the deal and they have an academy that allows them to still take first round talent in 2017 without their first round pick.

 

[Pdub]

So you think we should trade down our picks for maximum value?

Is that what you think the point of the exercise is?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Not hard when you have actual facts to rely on

Fake facts...

 

[Huntercrow]

Have been in and out of this thread a bit. Been quoted a bit in here, but I'll make it really simple for you.

Given Carlton wanted 2 x 1st rounders for Gibbs would you be happy trading Milera + Lever for Gibbs?

Both were recent 1st round picks and representative of what we would have lost.

Simple answer for me is No.

You have cherry picked 2 names amongst the many available. I could put up James Sellar and Darren Pfieffer.
What about Phil Davis and you know who?.......Both moved on to greener pastures.

Milera's selection was part of the trade for Dangerfield. So technically wasn't our first round selection that year. This would not have been offered to Carlton. Doudee would have been offered.

As for Lever......He is still to commit to the club so your example here is hanging in the balance.

Ist round draft picks are not guaranteed. We have had some good selections but not as many as the club would have hoped for.

Of the 22 players from Sunday's match their were only 5 first round draft picks playing. Only 1 made the best players list........Dougias.

The strength of our list is made up of trades, rookie upgrades, free agents and astute later round draft picks.
Atkins and Sloane for example.

Going by our recent history, 1st round draft picks play little part in our current "window of oppurtunity."

 

[Vhaluus]

You have cherry picked 2 names amongst the many available. I could put up James Sellar and Darren Pfieffer.
What about Phil Davis and you know who?.......Both moved on to greener pastures.

Milera's selection was part of the trade for Dangerfield. So technically wasn't our first round selection that year. This would not have been offered to Carlton. Doudee would have been offered.

As for Lever......He is still to commit to the club so your example here is hanging in the balance.

Ist round draft picks are not guaranteed. We have had some good selections but not as many as the club would have hoped for.

Of the 22 players from Sunday's match their were only 5 first round draft picks playing. Only 1 made the best players list........Dougias.

The strength of our list is made up of trades, rookie upgrades, free agents and astute later round draft picks.
Atkins and Sloane for example.

Going by our recent history, 1st round draft picks play little part in our current "window of oppurtunity."

You're assuming Milera wouldn't have been available at our Doedee pick.

Also the rest of your point is just silly. We didn't have many first round draft picks on our team not because we have picked badly on first rounds but because we have lost a great deal of them.

 

[Huntercrow]

You still haven't answered my question. In fact no one has. Why can't the gap/improvement come from the existing list?

Because every other club can claim the same thing. We would be speculating that our gap/improvement would give us an advantage over our competitors. This is a little arrogant don't you think?

Let's say for example you were going to write a prospectus on the advantages of investing in our list.
You are trying to sell this list to a prospective client. This is just the list as it stands now with no changes to be made from now into eternity. Does not include coaching staff, support staff, recruiters or anyone else.

This same client is also interested in the GWS list.

He would look at the balance sheet and see that the GWS list has a growth potential far in advance of the AFC list based purely on the number of top 10 draft picks and academy players. The numbers are staggering.
We are not even a close second in this race to prove our organic growth potential.

So as a list by itself there is little to be enthused in comparison to other "artificially inseminated" lists such as GWS and Sydney through their cola and academies and to a lesser extent GC and Brisbane.

So how have we gotten to the point of destroying GWS in round 1 and looking towards a successful season?

Certainly not through top 10 or 1st round draft picks. The AFCs strength is due to their ability to recruit outside the constrictions we suffer in comparison to the likes of GWS.

 

[maxlilly]

Wow, cant believe this thread is STILL going

 

[Huntercrow]

You're assuming Milera wouldn't have been available at our Doedee pick.

Also the rest of your point is just silly. We didn't have many first round draft picks on our team not because we have picked badly on first rounds but because we have lost a great deal of them.

Exactly my point. We have lost quite a lot.

This is where we get it wrong over valuing 1st round draft picks. Because these are whom we are most likely to lose.

Don't forget these guys are not here through choice. The draft removes this. Some (not many) decide to stay.
Usually the ones we'd rather lose

Trading removes this as a problem. So does the rookie draft. These guys have a different attitude. They are happy to be anywhere.

We are currently hoping to re sign Lever and McGovern. Brilliant players but they may both feel they have done their compulsory time at the Crows. Unfortunately the odds are 1 of these will leave.

 

[Vhaluus]

Exactly my point. We have lost quite a lot.

This is where we get it wrong over valuing 1st round draft picks. Because these are whom we are most likely to lose.

Don't forget these guys are not here through choice. The draft removes this. Some (not many) decide to stay.
Usually the ones we'd rather lose

Trading removes this as a problem. So does the rookie draft. These guys have a different attitude. They are happy to be anywhere.

We are currently hoping to re sign Lever and McGovern. Brilliant players but they may both feel they have done their compulsory time at the Crows. Unfortunately the odds are 1 of these will leave.

You've just completely twisted your argument because you were proven wrong.

 

[Huntercrow]

You've just completely twisted your argument because you were proven wrong.

Well maybe I should clarify.

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the draft!

 

[Vhaluus]

Well maybe I should clarify.

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the draft!

Crows have been spectacularly unlucky with losing players. It's completely unique within the AFL and not a trend that can continue forever.

 

[Heafy83]

You have cherry picked 2 names amongst the many available. I could put up James Sellar and Darren Pfieffer.
What about Phil Davis and you know who?.......Both moved on to greener pastures.

Milera's selection was part of the trade for Dangerfield. So technically wasn't our first round selection that year. This would not have been offered to Carlton. Doudee would have been offered.

As for Lever......He is still to commit to the club so your example here is hanging in the balance.

Ist round draft picks are not guaranteed. We have had some good selections but not as many as the club would have hoped for.

Of the 22 players from Sunday's match their were only 5 first round draft picks playing. Only 1 made the best players list........Dougias.

The strength of our list is made up of trades, rookie upgrades, free agents and astute later round draft picks.
Atkins and Sloane for example.

Going by our recent history, 1st round draft picks play little part in our current "window of oppurtunity."

Yes I cherry picked those two players names because in the last few years our drafting, in the first round, has been elite standards. You had to go back as far as Sellar and Pfieffer to find the last real duds. Its also a fact drafting has become much better league wide. There are less Duds in the top 20 now then there were early 2000s. Techniques, scouting and testing have improved increasing the success rate of draftees. Remember not every first round draftee will be a superstar but can be a 150+ game player who can really assist the club.

Yes Danger/Davis left the club. Doesn't give their picks any less value. Still elite players in their own right.

As for 1st round draft picks playing little part in our window of opportunity, well thats our own fault. Our 2012 fiasco with Tippett cost us of those 1st round players who would likely be making contributions now. We lost 2 1st round draft picks because of it + the likely first round draft pick we would have got in trade value for tippett. This does not diminish their value.

 

[Heafy83]

Because every other club can claim the same thing. We would be speculating that our gap/improvement would give us an advantage over our competitors. This is a little arrogant don't you think?

Let's say for example you were going to write a prospectus on the advantages of investing in our list.
You are trying to sell this list to a prospective client. This is just the list as it stands now with no changes to be made from now into eternity. Does not include coaching staff, support staff, recruiters or anyone else.

This same client is also interested in the GWS list.

He would look at the balance sheet and see that the GWS list has a growth potential far in advance of the AFC list based purely on the number of top 10 draft picks and academy players. The numbers are staggering.
We are not even a close second in this race to prove our organic growth potential.

So as a list by itself there is little to be enthused in comparison to other "artificially inseminated" lists such as GWS and Sydney through their cola and academies and to a lesser extent GC and Brisbane.

So how have we gotten to the point of destroying GWS in round 1 and looking towards a successful season?

Certainly not through top 10 or 1st round draft picks. The AFCs strength is due to their ability to recruit outside the constrictions we suffer in comparison to the likes of GWS.

How is it arrogant to expect that our drafting and recruiting is better than the next club? Isn't that what this competition is all about being able to identify, train, coach etc better than the next. What you are sprouting above is just ridiculous that we should not believe in our own abilities to be better than the competition. I'm glad you are not involved in the club because you would have us throw our hands in the air and give up.

The reason we belted the GWS is because of numerous factors. Probably better coached, stronger mentally, play as a TEAM better, get the most out of our talent. I don't care how many top 10 draft picks you put together if you can't get them to gel as a team then their worth as individuals is obsolete.

A Champion Team will always beat a Team of Champions.... have you heard that one before?

It is in fact what most of the competition does. It relys mostly on internal improvement otherwise you would be drafting/recruiting 40+ players every year to find that right mix.

You are also forgetting the outside recruiting we have already done.... Lynch, Jenkins, Betts, Cheney etc all play important roles in our side and yet we recruited them from other clubs. People in this thread make it sound like the AFC have sat on their hands and done nothing outside of drafting. Just because they don't get their name on the front page doesn't mean they're of any less importance to the club.

 

[Heafy83]

You've picked two first rounders that have turned out, or are looking to be good picks. Doedee and Gallucci could be busts which would mean the trade would be a good one. I get your point though, and I wouldn't have traded two firsts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Dangerfield, Davis, Brad Crouch, Brodie Smith, Daniel Talia, are every 1st round draft pick we have had since 2007 that is not mentioned in here already. I count Brad Crouch because we had to give up pick 10 to get him in the mini draft.

Which of these are Duds? Which of these would you pay 2 x players for, for Gibbs?

This is why I said Lever & Milera because they are the equivalent of anything we have drafted in the 1st round in the last 10 years. Gallucci & Doedee are untried talent. We have not seen them at AFL level. Odds are, given our history, they are going to be very good players for us.

 

[Vhaluus]

How is it arrogant to expect that our drafting and recruiting is better than the next club? Isn't that what this competition is all about being able to identify, train, coach etc better than the next. What you are sprouting above is just ridiculous that we should not believe in our own abilities to be better than the competition. I'm glad you are not involved in the club because you would have us throw our hands in the air and give up.

The reason we belted the GWS is because of numerous factors. Probably better coached, stronger mentally, play as a TEAM better, get the most out of our talent. I don't care how many top 10 draft picks you put together if you can't get them to gel as a team then their worth as individuals is obsolete.

A Champion Team will always beat a Team of Champions.... have you heard that one before?

It is in fact what most of the competition does. It relys mostly on internal improvement otherwise you would be drafting/recruiting 40+ players every year to find that right mix.

You are also forgetting the outside recruiting we have already done.... Lynch, Jenkins, Betts, Cheney etc all play important roles in our side and yet we recruited them from other clubs. People in this thread make it sound like the AFC have sat on their hands and done nothing outside of drafting. Just because they don't get their name on the front page doesn't mean they're of any less importance to the club.

Lynch, Jenkins Betts, Cheney are examples of our trading strategy: Find underrated bargains at other clubs. It has gone great for us.

Gibbs is the opposite. Overcosted with little room for improvement.

 

[TexForPM]

You think we should just remain competitive, we are very good at staying competitive I think teh club enjoys staying competitive keep the crowds up and sponsors. that makes you coin

We bashed the flag favourites on the weekend.
The kids are getting a run and are thriving.
I'm still hoping we nab a fa this year.
I also think we can win it.
If we do you will you apologise for this nonsense you are continuously banging on about?
Gibbs is good and I wanted him too. But, Carlton are idiots for asking too much. They are rebuilding, this was a pissing contest which we can still win.
Give it a rest

 

[TexForPM]

The only positive about not getting Gibbs is that we'll have plenty of dollars to re-sign McGovern and Lever.

You missed getting Dustin Martin