Prediction Give me your top 8

[Kane McGoodwin]

If we give teams reverse ladder points for wins (half for draws), given only 7 games & uneven draw.

Appears Sydney do much better & Port too. GWS perhaps overstated.

Bottom 6 still look out of the running.

E.g. Adelaide - Rich 18, StK 3, Syd 11, GC 6, Carl 1

Points rank (ladder pos) Team Points
1 (8) Sydney 49
2 (1) Richmond 44
3 (2) West Coast 40
=4 (3) Adelaide 39
=4 (4) Hawthorn 39
6 (6) Geelong 34
7 (11) Port 32
8 (7) North 30
---
9 (5) GWS 25.5
10 (15) Essendon 24
11 (9) Collingwood 23
12 (10) Melbourne 21
=13 (12) Fremantle 15
=13 (13) Gold Coast 15
15 (14) Bulldogs 11
16 (16) St Kilda 9
=17 (17) Brisbane 0
=17 (18) Carlton 0

 

[kulak]

Pre season predictions were here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-predictions.1185873/

Feeling pretty good about my pre season predictions.

Only North looking wildly wrong so far and there’s still time for them to drop down.

Richmond
GWS
Adelaide
Sydney
Geelong
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
--------------------
Essendon
Collingwood
St Kilda
West Coast
Western Bulldogs
Fremantle
Brisbane
Carlton
Gold Coast
North Melbourne

GWS to be the best team across the year but fall in a heap in front of the baying Tigers faithful on GF day.

Adelaide and Sydney to have strong years but be run off the park by younger quicker more aggressive teams on a fast finals deck.

Geelong and Hawthorn very fitness dependent. Both could push top 4 with a clear run but a clear run is unlikely. If Jaegar and GAJ and Selwood get injured they could both miss finals.

Melbourne on the way up. Surely there’s no way they have an injury run as bad as last year.

Port will be a bit discombobulated due to all their new players.

Essendon I can’t see as a real contender because they don’t have a contested bull. They will be desperately hoping for Stringer and Smith to come through strongly here.

Collingwood have a great midfield. Quotes suggest they are finally thinking of coming up with a game plan to suit their list. Still, Buckley.

Western Bulldogs looked utterly disinterested at AFLX. Sure it was a team of noobs playing AFLX but you would think they would be possessed with a ferocious determination to push their case as the least.

Brisbane are the bottom 8 team I am most excited to watch. Set your watches to Hawthorn 2005.

Gold Coast likely to continue to be a basket case.

North have some rebuilding ahead of them. Set your watches to Carlton a few years ago.

Brownlow - Dustin Martin

Coleman - Joe Daniher

I will be doing well if 60%+ of this is correct.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Update of reverse ladder points wins after round 8.

Sydney's performances better than ladder position currently reflecting, whereas Melbourne overrated as haven't beaten anyone really of note except North.

Rank (Ladder pos) Team, Points (Change)
1 (7) Sydney 63
2 (2) West Coast 57 (+1)
3 (1) Richmond 54 (-1)
4 (3) Geelong 45 (+2)
=5 (5) Hawthorn 44 (-1)
=5 (8) Port 44 (+2)
7 (4) Adelaide 43 (-3)
8 (10) North 31
-----
9 (15) Essendon 26 (+1)
10 (9) GWS 23.5 (-1)
=11 (11) Collingwood 22
=11 (6) Melbourne 22 (+1)
13 (12) Fremantle 18
=14 (14) Gold Coast 12 (-1)
=14 (13) Western Bulldogs 12
16 (16) St Kilda 6
17 (17) Carlton 4
18 (18) Brisbane 0 (-1)

 

[Roovolution]

Cindy Crawford
Kate Upton
Miranda Kerr
Natalie Imbrulia
Jennifer Aniston
Kate Moss
Tara Moss
Beverley D’Amgelo

 

[Bazz_27]

Cindy Crawford
Kate Upton
Miranda Kerr
Natalie Imbrulia
Jennifer Aniston
Kate Moss
Tara Moss
Beverley D’Amgelo

Imbrulia the underdog sneaks into the top 4!

 

[BrissyCrow]

At this stage I still think its hard to decide. Teams like Melb, Collingwood and North are all showing they have the potential to make the eight. However I would select the following:

Richmond
Sydney
West Coast
Adelaide
Geelong
Port
GWS
Hawthorn

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Update of reverse ladder points wins after round 8.

Sydney's performances better than ladder position currently reflecting, whereas Melbourne overrated as haven't beaten anyone really of note except North.

Rank (Ladder pos) Team, Points (Change)
1 (7) Sydney 63
2 (2) West Coast 57 (+1)
3 (1) Richmond 54 (-1)
4 (3) Geelong 45 (+2)
=5 (5) Hawthorn 44 (-1)
=5 (8) Port 44 (+2)
7 (4) Adelaide 43 (-3)
8 (10) North 31
-----
9 (15) Essendon 26 (+1)
10 (9) GWS 23.5 (-1)
=11 (11) Collingwood 22
=11 (6) Melbourne 22 (+1)
13 (12) Fremantle 18
=14 (14) Gold Coast 12 (-1)
=14 (13) Western Bulldogs 12
16 (16) St Kilda 6
17 (17) Carlton 4
18 (18) Brisbane 0 (-1)

Repeated for Willo 17 to get a better understanding of "downhill skiers"'

 

[PCORF]

1 Richmond
2 West Coast Eagles
3 Melbourne
4 Geelong
5 Adelaide
6 Sydney Swans
7 Port Adelaide
8 Collingwood

I have a funny feeling that Melbourne could win the premiership and become the next team to end a drought, seems to be a familiar pattern over the last 2 or so years.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Update of reverse ladder points wins after round 9.

Melbourne still overrated Willo 17 as only won against weaker teams.

Bottom 6 teams nowhere near it & are gone, with the Blues now the spooners in all respects.

Rank # (Change) Team Ladder # Rank v Ladder Total Points
1 (+1) WCE 1 0 67
2 (-1) Syd 5 3 60
3 (0) Rich 2 -1 57
4 (+1) Port 6 2 54
5 (-1) Geel 8 3 49
6 (+1) Adel 4 -2 45
7 (-2) Haw 9 2 44
8 (+1) Ess 14 6 39
-----
9 (-1) NM 7 -2 36
10 (1) Melb 3 -7 27
11 (0) Coll 10 -1 26
12 (-2) GWS 11 -1 25.5
13 (0) Freo 12 -1 18
14 (0) GC 15 1 15
15 (-1) WB 13 -2 12
16 (2) Bris 17 1 10
17 (-1) StK 16 -1 6
18 (-1) Carl 18 0 5

 

[Hobbes]

Update of reverse ladder points wins after round 9.

Melbourne still overrated Willo 17 as only won against weaker teams.

Bottom 6 teams nowhere near it & are gone, with the Blues now the spooners in all respects.

Rank # (Change) Team Ladder # Rank v Ladder Total Points
1 (+1) WCE 1 0 67
2 (-1) Syd 5 3 60
3 (0) Rich 2 -1 57
4 (+1) Port 6 2 54
5 (-1) Geel 8 3 49
6 (+1) Adel 4 -2 45
7 (-2) Haw 9 2 44
8 (+1) Ess 14 6 39
-----
9 (-1) NM 7 -2 36
10 (1) Melb 3 -7 27
11 (0) Coll 10 -1 26
12 (-2) GWS 11 -1 25.5
13 (0) Freo 12 -1 18
14 (0) GC 15 1 15
15 (-1) WB 13 -2 12
16 (2) Bris 17 1 10
17 (-1) StK 16 -1 6
18 (-1) Carl 18 0 5

Having ascertained that the ladder is misleading, perhaps you should rerun this using itself as the ladder.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Having ascertained that the ladder is misleading, perhaps you should rerun this using itself as the ladder.

Yes, good point & I thought about that & no doubt my model is very basic compared to yours!

 

[Hobbes]

Yes, good point & I thought about that & no doubt my model is very basic compared to yours!

I'm sure it is, but it can still be a useful snapshot.

 

[Hobbes]

Yes, good point & I thought about that & no doubt my model is very basic compared to yours!

Come to think of it, your idea needs expansion. Construct a second table based on losses - flip the premiership table - and subtract one table from the other. While you can give Essendon credit for beating Port, Adelaide and Geelong, they really ought to be harshly evaluated for losing to Carlton.

 

[Hobbes]

My model of a reverse ladder. For each match, the winner gets the number of the opponents' wins for the season, and the loser loses the number of the opponents' losses. This means that each match is worth a number of points equal to the number of games played, but the distribution of scores will depend on how the two teams are going. A top of the table clash might provide (say) +8 for the winner and -1 for the loser. Scores should total 0 for each round (and hence overall).

West Coast 31.5
Richmond 23
Sydney 20.5
Port Adelaide 14
Adelaide 9.5
Geelong 9
Melbourne 4.5
North Melbourne 4
-------------
Hawthorn 3.5
GWS -1
Collingwood -2
Fremantle -2
Western Bulldogs -8.5
Essendon -12
Gold Coast -13
Carlton -25
St Kilda -26
Brisbane -30

Of course, this takes no account of the manner or magnitude of the wins and losses.

 

[Mismatched]

Update of reverse ladder points wins after round 9.

Melbourne still overrated Willo 17 as only won against weaker teams.

Bottom 6 teams nowhere near it & are gone, with the Blues now the spooners in all respects.

Rank # (Change) Team Ladder # Rank v Ladder Total Points
1 (+1) WCE 1 0 67
2 (-1) Syd 5 3 60
3 (0) Rich 2 -1 57
4 (+1) Port 6 2 54
5 (-1) Geel 8 3 49
6 (+1) Adel 4 -2 45
7 (-2) Haw 9 2 44
8 (+1) Ess 14 6 39
-----
9 (-1) NM 7 -2 36
10 (1) Melb 3 -7 27
11 (0) Coll 10 -1 26
12 (-2) GWS 11 -1 25.5
13 (0) Freo 12 -1 18
14 (0) GC 15 1 15
15 (-1) WB 13 -2 12
16 (2) Bris 17 1 10
17 (-1) StK 16 -1 6
18 (-1) Carl 18 0 5

Just looking at Melbourne's "wins", they kind of read like the "Bulldogs" wins.

They've beaten Brisbane, North, Essendon, St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton. Lost to Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond.

Essentially telling us that they're in the exact same spot as they were last year, better than the bottom 8 sides, but struggle against the better sides. They're next 4 games are a far better test, if they're still top 4 after playing Adelaide, Bulldogs, Collingwood and Port, then they're probably the real deal.

The ladder is starting to take shape. Top 2 are probably set and apart from perhaps Essendon, I don't see anyone from 12 down making the 8, but anywhere in between and its even game almost. GWS whom everyone thought would be top 2 are currently 11th, whilst Kangas are sitting 7th!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Just looking at Melbourne's "wins", they kind of read like the "Bulldogs" wins.

They've beaten Brisbane, North, Essendon, St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton. Lost to Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond.

Essentially telling us that they're in the exact same spot as they were last year, better than the bottom 8 sides, but struggle against the better sides. They're next 4 games are a far better test, if they're still top 4 after playing Adelaide, Bulldogs, Collingwood and Port, then they're probably the real deal.

The ladder is starting to take shape. Top 2 are probably set and apart from perhaps Essendon, I don't see anyone from 12 down making the 8, but anywhere in between and its even game almost. GWS whom everyone thought would be top 2 are currently 11th, whilst Kangas are sitting 7th!

The difference being that the Bulldogs has small wins against those sides. Melbourne had a 18 goal win, a 11 goal win and a 6 goal win against similar sides to the Bulldogs. So you’d expect them to be a better team. We will see this Sunday.

 

[kulak]

Anyone predict that after 9 rounds our best players (by AFL player ratings) would be
1. Hugh Greenwood
2. Paul Seedsman
3. CEY
4. Richard Douglas

...and that we would be sitting at 6-3, with our only loss to a top 8 team coming with a goal in the last minute.

 

[Bicks]

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Update of reverse ladder points wins after round 10.

Dees move in to the top 8, but still ranked lower than their ladder position like North for mainly beating up low teams. On the flipside, Port & Hawks better than their ladder position suggests.

Bottom 6 teams nowhere near it & are gone & reckon we can add GWS if we beat them this week.

Rank # (Change) Team Ladder # (Rank v Ladder) Total Points
1 (-) WCE 1 (-) 73
2 (+1) Rich 2 (-) 62
3 (-1) Syd 4 (+1) 61
4 (-) Port 9 (+5) 58.9
5 (+2) Haw 10 (+5) 50
6 (-1) Geel 6 (-) 48
7 (-1) Adel 7 (-) 45
=8 (+2) Mel 3 (-5) 43
=8 (-) Ess 12 (+4) 43
-----
10 (-1) NM 5 (-5) 42
11 (-) Coll 8 (-3) 30
12 (-) GWS 11 (-1) 25.5
13 (-) Freo 13 (-) 19
14 (-) GC 15 (+1) 18.9
15 (-1) WB 14 (-1) 14
16 (-) Bris 17 (+1) 9
17 (+1) Carl 17 (+1) 7
18 (-1) StK 16 (-2) 6

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Update of reverse ladder points wins after round 15.

I haven't got around to updating since round 10. Over the last 5 rounds - St Kilda, Essendon & GWS moving up; Melbourne, Gold Coast & West Coast moving down. Rest minimal change.

Compared to their ladder position - Collingwood & Melbourne over-rated (beaten-up on easier teams), whereas Essendon & Hawthorn under-rated.

Bottom 5 teams nowhere near the rest.

Rank # ( Change since R5) Team Ladder # (Rank v Ladder) Total Points
1 (+1) Rich 1 (0) 94
2 (+1) Syd 4 (+2) 85
3 (-2) WCE 2 (-1) 84
4 (0) Port 5 (+1) 80
5 (0) Haw 10 (+5) 76
6 (+2) Ess 12 (+6) 75
7 (-1) Geel 8 (+1) 74
8 (-1) Adel 11 (+3) 63
----
9 (+1) NM 9 (0) 59
10 (+2) GWS 6 (-4) 54
11 (0) Coll 2 (-9) 49
12 (-4) Melb 7 (-5) 40
13 (0) Freo 13 (0) 28
14 (+1) WB 14 (0) 24
15 (+3) StK 15 (0) 23.5
16 (0) Bris 17 (+1) 15
17 (-3) GC 16 (-1) 13
18 (-1) Carl 18 (0) 7