Analysis Goalkicking accuracy for 2019

[Deaneus!]

I rarely enjoy steamboats* come onto the main board but I was doing some thinking on the Adelaide board and this fell out

Here is a scatterplot of the 18 AFL teams, and their goalkicking accuracy. I contend that the highest place team is doing something specific in terms of training to have such a high accuracy % after 21 rounds



Try to guess which clubs are where, and which club is the *clear* leader, then have a look.

It might be funny to correlate this with teams who have lost games by 6 points or less kinda thing.

Spoiler

West Coast 64.516% - clear, clear leader, they must be doing something specific around this, surely.
Geelong 59.545%
Richmond 59.242%
Greater Western Sydney 59.207%
Collingwood 59.091%
Brisbane Lions 57.692%
Essendon 57.584%
Adelaide 57.524% - 8th, i thought we were way worse
North Melbourne 57.072%
Carlton 56.533%
Hawthorn 56.397%
Melbourne 56.131%
Fremantle 55.914%
Sydney 55.670%
Gold Coast 55.556%
Port Adelaide 54.801%
St Kilda 54.430%
Western Bulldogs 54.018%

*it's an old Mitch Hedberg joke

 

[the harry]

These numbers don't look right?

Or at least according to https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/

Highest should be 57.4% I think? Or at least the team that you have the highest.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Yep, our poor kicking has cost us multiple games against both top and bottom teams and will be the reason we miss finals if it turns out that way.

Bont is 14.24 (evened a little recently) on his own for a player that has been dominating is paticularly poor this year.

 

[Deaneus!]

These numbers don't look right?

Or at least according to https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/

Highest should be 57.4% I think? Or at least the team that you have the highest.

I took it from https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2019s.html

It doesn't count OOFs

Also the league average is 57.318% so it becomes

Spoiler

West Coast 64.516% - clear, clear leader, they must be doing something specific around this, surely.
Geelong 59.545%
Richmond 59.242%
Greater Western Sydney 59.207%
Collingwood 59.091%
Brisbane Lions 57.692%
Essendon 57.584%
Adelaide 57.524% - 8th, i thought we were way worse​

​

League Average - 57.318%

North Melbourne 57.072%
Carlton 56.533%
Hawthorn 56.397%
Melbourne 56.131%
Fremantle 55.914%
Sydney 55.670%
Gold Coast 55.556%
Port Adelaide 54.801%
St Kilda 54.430%
Western Bulldogs 54.018%
​

​

 

[bzparkes]

We appointed a specialist goal kicking coach for the 2018 preseason from memory. Guy was a legend in the WAFL for his accuracy. He’s worked with the club before. Not sure if he’s still with the club though.

 

[Deaneus!]

We appointed a specialist goal kicking coach for the 2018 preseason from memory. Guy was a legend in the WAFL for his accuracy. He’s worked with the club before. Not sure if he’s still with the club though.

Then throw money at him to come back, because you've clearly got value out of that. There's you, then daylight, then moonlight, then lunch, then 2nd.

 

[bzparkes]

Then throw money at him to come back, because you've clearly got value out of that. There's you, then daylight, then moonlight, then lunch, then 2nd.

View attachment 727061

West Coast employ dead-eye goalkicking legend to alleviate inaccuracy

www.google.com.au

Austin Robertson. Pretty sure he had an Open Mike last year.

 

[the harry]

I took it from https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2019s.html

It doesn't count OOFs

Also the league average is 57.318% so it becomes

Spoiler

West Coast 64.516% - clear, clear leader, they must be doing something specific around this, surely.
Geelong 59.545%
Richmond 59.242%
Greater Western Sydney 59.207%
Collingwood 59.091%
Brisbane Lions 57.692%
Essendon 57.584%
Adelaide 57.524% - 8th, i thought we were way worse


League Average - 57.318%
North Melbourne 57.072%
Carlton 56.533%
Hawthorn 56.397%
Melbourne 56.131%
Fremantle 55.914%
Sydney 55.670%
Gold Coast 55.556%
Port Adelaide 54.801%
St Kilda 54.430%
Western Bulldogs 54.018%

I'm quite confident they're missing 50 odd behinds. We had 22 against the Bombers and they've only got us having 140 for the season. So that's 120ish from 19 other games. That's incredibly low.

 

[Scotland]

A lot of it reflects game style. The Bulldogs are stone motherless in overall accuracy while also having the most accurate goal kicker in the game. No player in the history of VFL/AFL football to kick 100+ goals has a better conversion rate than Tory Dickson. But in 2010s footy he's a limited player so is only going to kick 40-50 in a year, max.

Jack Petruccelle for example has 19.13 for the season which is above average, but really he is probably 10.0 from running goals out the back from <20m and 9.13 from the rest. Liam Ryan is 23.16 while Jamie Cripps is 23.9 which makes sense if you see the role each plays. Josh Jenkins was more accurate when Adelaide were flying to now not because he's suddenly a lesser kick for goal but he got easier shots and more of them in that game style.

 

[Deaneus!]

I'm quite confident they're missing 50 odd behinds. We had 22 against the Bombers and they've only got us having 140 for the season. So that's 120ish from 19 other games. That's incredibly low.

Maybe afltables are excluding rushed behinds? which ironically i'd argue makes it a more accurate assessment of goalkicking accuracy

EDIT:
Yup, team total for the year is 260.143
actual score for the year is 260.193

 

[woosha24]

Then throw money at him to come back, because you've clearly got value out of that. There's you, then daylight, then moonlight, then lunch, then 2nd.

**Ross Lyon dislikes this**

 

[Scotland]

So the actual scoring accuracy average league wide is 51.96%, WC are at 57%. Hawthorn, St Kilda, Melbourne the only teams slightly under 50%.

Interestingly St Kilda have concede 266.178 (60%) which is the 3rd most goals and fewest behinds. Punch it through!

 

[Spanish_Fly]

I remember last year the Eagles appeared to me to be accurate in front of goals also. I noticed that a lot of the players had a similiar goal kicking routine/action. The seem to very deliberately run straight at the goals and make sure their follow through is straight and deliberately at the target. Makes sense that this would improve accuracy as even if you dont get the kick perfect it still tends to travel pretty straight.

Still mystifies me that clubs dont spend a lot more time getting this right, just imagine for any side what a 3 goal turnaround per game would do for results (if just 3 more set shots for example were converted per match), and this doesnt even take into account the momentum swings associated with both missing or scoring goals.

 

[sprockets]

I rarely enjoy steamboats* come onto the main board but I was doing some thinking on the Adelaide board and this fell out

Here is a scatterplot of the 18 AFL teams, and their goalkicking accuracy. I contend that the highest place team is doing something specific in terms of training to have such a high accuracy % after 21 rounds

View attachment 727024

Try to guess which clubs are where, and which club is the *clear* leader, then have a look.

It might be funny to correlate this with teams who have lost games by 6 points or less kinda thing.

Spoiler

West Coast 64.516% - clear, clear leader, they must be doing something specific around this, surely.
Geelong 59.545%
Richmond 59.242%
Greater Western Sydney 59.207%
Collingwood 59.091%
Brisbane Lions 57.692%
Essendon 57.584%
Adelaide 57.524% - 8th, i thought we were way worse
North Melbourne 57.072%
Carlton 56.533%
Hawthorn 56.397%
Melbourne 56.131%
Fremantle 55.914%
Sydney 55.670%
Gold Coast 55.556%
Port Adelaide 54.801%
St Kilda 54.430%
Western Bulldogs 54.018%

*it's an old Mitch Hedberg joke

A genuine graph has to start at zero on both axes (axises?).

 

[Deaneus!]

A genuine graph has to start at zero on both axes (axises?).

and one that maximises the efficiency of the space it's been given doesn't

 

[sprockets]

and one that maximises the efficiency of the space it's been given doesn't

Let BigFooty worry about their space

 

[Handsuper47]

I'm pretty sure the Eagles have the most consistent accuracy in front of goals this year, but the Lions have consistently been having a huge amount of shots on goal.

 

[darcytiger]

Only anecdotal, but would Perth’s good weather account for a bit of this? Richmond has played about 5 games in the rain in a row now. Doesn’t explain teams that play the majority of their games at Marvel though

 

[Scotland]

Only anecdotal, but would Perth’s good weather account for a bit of this? Richmond has played about 5 games in the rain in a row now. Doesn’t explain teams that play the majority of their games at Marvel though

I don't think there is a correlation. Our home game vs Port was in the wet and we kicked 8.5. Against Hawthorn (MCG) we kicked 11.11 in atrocious conditions. Against Essendon at home we managed 14.22. In the most recent derby we kicked 19.8 to 2.19. We tend to be higher scoring at home but not necessarily more accurate.

We're a pretty low possession, low inside 50 count side. We're mid table for scoring shots but 3rd for goals scored. The Bulldogs by comparison who play their home games indoors are a high possession, high inside 50 side. They've had more scoring shots at a much lower accuracy. Every team has their own game style.

 

[Deaneus!]

Only anecdotal, but would Perth’s good weather account for a bit of this? Richmond has played about 5 games in the rain in a row now. Doesn’t explain teams that play the majority of their games at Marvel though

I hadn’t thought of that - I figured game plan, but hadn’t considered weather as a factor

Nice one

Similarly, have WCE had good weather at Optus?

 

[iluvparis]

Lol - look at all you battlers coming up with random theories to explain what is a pure variance anomaly (i.e. - it is almost certainly just down to luck this year)

Final Siren - please take it from here

 

[PerthBoy86]

It's funny to say, but I feel goalkicking accuracy as a skill and stat is underrated. We always talk about possessions/disposals, contested possessions, marks, spoils etc, but footy is, after all, about kicking em through the big sticks. It's sort of silly to say 'they should've won it if not for inaccuracy', though valid as a comment on a team's domination otherwise, but accuracy is a critical skill. You can be a good player and be an average shot for goal, but you'll be so much more effective if you're accurate.

 

[Dr Tigris]

I reckon at some point a team will work out how to increase accuracy consistently. And then everyone will copy them. Maybe WC has done that. But it seems weird that players with good field kicking can't kick straight between two white sticks.