Game Day Gold Coast v Essendon - Carrara - Sunday 28/07/19 - 4:40 PM

[eth-dog]

Observations

Gold Coast: The Suns had a 4 goal loss to Carlton in what was their most competitive effort in recent weeks, always staying within touch at every break. Brayden Fiorini continued his very consistent season with 32 disposals whilst general forward Alex Sexton kicked 3 goals, getting his tally above 30 goals for the year.

Essendon: Had a huge come from behind win against Adelaide, going behind by as many as 25 points in the second, but kicked the last four goals of the game to win by 21. Zach Merrett was excellent in the middle, collecting 31 disposals whilst key forward Mitch Brown had 4 goals amongst 23 touches and 8 marks.


Head to Head (last 5)

Gold Coast 2-3 Essendon


Form Guide

Gold Coast: 0W 5L
Essendon: 4W 1L


Sportsbet odds

Gold Coast: $7.00
Essendon: $1.07
Line: 40.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Gold Coast vs Essendon

B: Aaron Francis - Michael Hartley - Adam Saad
F: Sam Day - Peter Wright - Alex Sexton
HB: Martin Gleeson - Patrick Ambrose - Mason Redman
HF: Sean Lemmens - Ben King - Darcy Macpherson
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - David Zaharakis
C: Lachie Weller - Michael Rischitelli - Jacob Dawson
HF: Jake Stringer - Mitchell Brown - Will Snelling
HB: Corey Ellis - Chris Burgess - Pearce Hanley
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Jarrod Harbrow - Jack Hombsch - Charlie Ballard
R: Zach Clarke - Dylan Shiel - Zach Merrett
R: Jarrod Witts - David Swallow - Touk Miller
I: Darcy Parish - Conor McKenna - Kyle Langford - Matthew Guelfi
I: Brayden Fiorini - Jack Lukosius - Ben Ainsworth - Jack Bowes

Essendon in: Zach Clarke, Jayden Laverde; Out: Dyson Heppell (rest), Cale Hooker (rest)
Gold Coast in: Jack Bowes, Ben Ainsworth, Lachie Weller; Out: Jacob Heron (omit), Jessie Joyce (omit), Will Brodie (hamstring)


Gold Coast defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. Gold Coast concede a goal 24.1% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranked 15th in the AFL. Expect the Suns to run Jack Hombsch on the dangerous Shaun McKernan whilst Jarrod Harbrow is the most likely player to take Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who has surprisingly struggled against the Suns, only kicking 2 goals against them whilst Chris Burgess will have a tough assignment against the mercurial talent that is Jake Stringer, who hasn't played the Suns since 2016 and wil be keen to continue his good form against the bottom of the table side.


Midfield/rucks battle

Essendon are 8th for overall clearance differential and 10th for contested possession differential, Gold Coast ranking in 13th and 14th in these stats respectively. The big stat though is that Gold Coast average 11 fewer inside 50's than their opponents which simply shows that they don't work hard enough in the middle, and will need to work a whole lot harder against a midfield of Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett and the much improved Darcy Parish who have been very important in the middle for the Dons in the guts this season so far. Brayden Fiorini has really stepped up this year, averaging 26 disposals and 3 clearances whilst Touk Miller and captain David Swallow have had disappointing seasons averaging 21 and 23 disposals respectively. Rucks wise Jarrod Witts has been averaging 44 hit outs at the stoppage so expect an advantage for him against back up Zach Clarke.


Gold Coast forward line vs Essendon defence

Gold Coast are dead last for goals/inside 50 this season, kicking a goal 18.8% of the time it enters there. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. Gold Coast only have four players in double figure goals this year, only two of which average more than a goal/game in Peter Wright and Alex Sexton. Michael Hartley and former sun Adam Saad are the ones likely to take these two, Wright and Sexton have struggled against these opponents previously so it'll be important for Sam Day and Ben King to stand up and take pressure off the others going head to head with Aaron Francis and Patrick Ambrose respectively.


X-Factor Player

Will Snelling made his bombers debut last game and will head back to Metricon, where he played his only game in Port Adelaide colours. Snelling's speed and tackle intensity will be important for the Dons.


Key stat

Gold Coast: Inside 50 differential. They average 11 less than their opponents so they must mitigate this

Essendon: Goals/Inside 50. Stats say they'l get their chances, they can get a big percentage boost if they get on top here


Tip

The Dons really need a big win to boost percentage. Time for ruthlessness, Dons by 77

 

[Beerfish]

Sorry people but there will be no awesome GD OP from our resident genius wizard VelvetSledge this week. He is otherwise occupied today.

So please, join me in enjoying ethan's preview OP again and go Bombers.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Smash them please

 

[VelvetSledge]

Sorry for no thread today all! Go the Dons!

 

[cAsEy_18]

Think it's very realistic that we'll have a comfortable, comprehensive 25-30 point win.
Those hoping for 70-80 point margins I imagine will be disappointed. That's not our current team - we're winning games of footy this year by our defense being stifling, and finding a way to make 75-80 a winning score.
Sure, we might find it easier to defend the Suns, therefore making it an 'easier' win. But that doesn't necessarily give us the ability all of a sudden to score 120-130 in a game.
Hence, 'comfortable' 4-5 goal win.

 

[coastalpipeline]

Weather update bit overcast little breezy would be blowing across ground sonbit really a favour to any side

 

[Macca18]

The Suns have only had 100 points or more kicked against them 5 times (out of 17) this year.

If you take out their last two home losses (both over 90 points), their average losing margin this year is 33 points. They've lost 3 games by under a goal (1, 1 & 4 points) ...

They are going to be absolutely no pushovers with the team we are putting out on the park.

 

[quotemokc]

We need to come out of the blocks fast.

Stun them early, we need to learn to start fast, no better team to do it against.

 

[Kakkle]

Look forward to the melts when the Suns kick the first behind of the game, and are up by a point with 19 mins to play in the first.

 

[Its Manbearpig]

Far more concerned than the last few weeks..

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

The Suns have only had 100 points or more kicked against them 5 times (out of 17) this year.

If you take out their last two home losses (both over 90 points), their average losing margin this year is 33 points. They've lost 3 games by under a goal (1, 1 & 4 points) ...

They are going to be absolutely no pushovers with the team we are putting out on the park.

Not if we come out and set the tone for the day.

If we don't smash this side then we haven't learnt anything time for Essendon to be ruthless against bottom teams

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Look forward to the melts when the Suns kick the first behind of the game, and are up by a point with 19 mins to play in the first.

I'm predicting us to start well by kicking the first 3 goals and then Essginton rolls up and allow the suns to be level at qrt time with a sniff.

It will then be a arm wrestle for the reaming 3 qrts with Essendon end up up winning by 2 goals.

 

[ghostdog]

Sorry for no thread today all! Go the Dons!

Out: Velvet Sledge
In: Poor excuse









Nah, really. Cheers

 

[rumply]

Just do what the Dogs did to Freo in the first quarter & pile on a lazy 50, that should see them off...

 

[Macca18]

Gold Coast started the week as $7 outsiders with line betting at 41 points.

Now into $5 this afternoon with line down to 32 points.

What does this mean? Probably nothing as usual... but people probably a little more aware now of the team we are putting out on the park.

 

[vaughany]

Any late changes?

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[ghostdog]

Gold Coast started the week as $7 outsiders with line betting at 41 points.

Now into $5 this afternoon with line down to 32 points.

What does this mean? Probably nothing as usual... but people probably a little more aware now of the team we are putting out on the park.

I reckon it means some people are bored and dumb.

 

[VelvetSledge]

Out: Velvet Sledge
In: Poor excuse









Nah, really. Cheers

Out: Sleep
In: First-born (potentially)

 

[ghostdog]

Out: Sleep
In: First-born (potentially)

Woo hoo!! Congratulations mate! It goes way too quickly. Enjoy it

 

[Beerfish]

Out: Sleep
In: First-born (potentially)

Total lack of respect for GC. Bloody Essendon supporters.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

4:40

Have to wait all day such a s**t time slot.

 

[raskolnikov]

At Metricon now. Almost every person I have seen so far has been in red and black.

 

[boncer34]

At Metricon now. Almost every person I have seen so far has been in red and black.

Poor Suns.

 

[rumply]

 

[westking]

At Metricon now. Almost every person I have seen so far has been in red and black.

Just turned up and it’s like an Essendon home game against Fremantle.