Preview Grand Final: Richmond vs Geelong, Gabba, Saturday 24/10/2020, 7:30 AEDT

Winner and Normie?


  • Total voters
    28
  • This poll will close: .

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eth-dog

Premium Gold
Jan 11, 2007
87,413
43,990
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Observations

Richmond: Inaccurate kicking for goal was downside of Richmond's win against Port, the Tigers winning by 6 behinds against the minor premiers Port Adelaide. Dustin Martin excelled again, collecting 21 disposals and kicking 2 goals whilst splitting his time between the midfield and forward 50, whilst the ever reliable Kane Lambert kicked 2 as well.

Geelong: Inaccurate kicking also cost Geelong a bigger win in the Preliminary Final, getting over the line by 40 points but with 15 more scores. Mitchell Duncan was excellent again, collecting 22 disposals on a wing whilst Gary Rohan actually performed in a final, kicking 3 goals on the night up forward.


Head to Head (last 5)

Richmond 4-1 Geelong


Form Guide

Richmond: 4W 1L
Geelong: 3W 2L


Sportsbet odds

Richmond: $1.80
Geelong: $2.10
Line: 2.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Richmond vs Geelong

FB: Nathan Broad - Dylan Grimes - Liam Baker
FF: Gary Ablett jr - Tom Hawkins - Gryan Miers
HB: Nick Vlaustin - Noah Balta - Bachar Houli
HF: Luke Dahlhaus - Gary Rohan - Sam Simpson
MF: Kamdyn Mcintosh - Dion Prestia - Marlion Pickett
MF: Mitchell Duncan - Joel Selwood - Sam Menegola
HF: Jack Graham - Jack Riewoldt - Shai Bolton
HB: Mark O'Connor - Lachie Henderson - Tom Stewart
FF: Dustin Martin - Tom Lynch - Jason Castagna
FB: Jack Henry - Harry Taylor - David Astbury
OB: Toby Nankervis - Shane Edwards - Trent Cotchin
OB: Rhys Stanley - Patrick Dangerfield - Cameron Guthrie
IC: David Astbury - Jayden Short - Daniel Rioli - Kane Lambert
IC: Mark Blicavs - Brandon Parfitt - Zach Tuohy - Jed Bews


Richmond defence vs Geelong forward line

Richmond's much vaunted defence has been a standout for them this season, conceding a goal only 18.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 2nd in the AFL. On the flipside, Geelong has been one of the most efficient sides inside 50 in the league, kicking a goal 24.7% of the time it enters their forward line. Richmond have a back line group that can match Geelong's forwards, expect Coleman medalist and gun key forward Tom Hawkins to receive attention from Noah Balta, who has impressed with his strength this season, whilst pseudo-tall Gary Rohan will likely be going up against Nathan Broad, who has successfully quelled him on previous occassions. Gary Ablett junior will be playing his last game of football, can Liam Baker quell his influence or will the little master prove to be a match winner for the men in the hoops?


Midfield/rucks battle

A stark contrast between these two sides in terms of how they approach the midfield. Geelong are 1st and 2nd in contested possession differential and clearance differential this season whilst Richmond are 13th and 16th in these fields respectively. Geelong have one of the best midfields in the league on paper, and in results, boasting Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield, Cameron Guthrie and Brandon Parfitt as their main inside midfielders, quality oozing from that group, whilst Mitchell Duncan, Sam Menegola and Zach Tuohy are their rotations on a wing, but can they overcome the pressure of the Richmond midfield and the quality of Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia as inside midfielders, or contain the outside run of Marlion Pickett, Kamdyn Mcintosh and Shai Bolton? Rucks wise, Toby Nankervis should hold an edge over Rhys Stanley both at the stoppage and around the ground, whilst the reverse should be the case between Mark Blicavs and David Astbury for the back-up ruckmen


Geelong defence vs Richmond forward line

Geelong has had one of the most miserly defensive groupings this season, conceding a goal only 19.8% of the time it enters their defensive 50, top 4 in the AFL. Richmond excel at getting repeat entries inside 50 but aren't the most efficient going in there, kicking a goal 20.3% of the time it goes in. All eyes will be on the match-ups of Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt, the two star key forwards likely to receive attention from Harry Taylor and Lachie Henderson respectively. Lynch got ahold of Geelong in the preliminary Final last year but Taylor has had two good performances against him either side of that, whilst Jack kicked 4 against the Cats in the last start, so one to watch there. Jason Castagna has been Richmond's best small forward this season, but will find it tough against Jed Bews, who has become one of the premier small defenders of the competition the past couple of years.


X-Factor Player

This will be Gary Ablett's last game of AFL. The little master has given the game so much, can he light it up one last time against Richmond? Here's hoping he can because he's the best player I've ever seen and deserves to go out with a flag.


Key stat

Richmond: Defensive conversion. Absolutely have to contain Geelong's impressive forward line if they're going to win

Geelong: Centre clearance differential. If they can give Hawkins or Dangerfield or Rohan chances 1-on-1 through winning centre clearances, it'll go a long way for them.


Tip

fu** the head, I'm going with my heart. Geelong by 17, Patrick Dangerfield Norm Smith.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
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Will be a good one I think. This was my favoured match up as a spectacle.

I'll say Richmond to win by 10 points and Dangerfield to win the Norm Smith.
 

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mike14

Premium Platinum
Jun 29, 2006
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Is this only the 2nd time (Swans/Dogs being the other) that both teams GF teams have played in every week of the finals series since they introduced the top 8 system?

It would be nice to see GAZ (and I'm assuming Taylor) go out with a priemership, but I think Richmond will get over the line relatively comfortably in the end. Tiges by 27
 

TheGreatBarryB

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 20, 2007
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In the final five days the top team would get a rest week 1 and then if they won 2nd semi in week 2 they’d have another rest for Prelim in week 3. And most times they’d go on and win the flag. No excuses
 

eth-dog

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Yeah that needs to be abolished. The QF winner should receive the rest advantage.
I maintain the best way to do this is to have the final round all start at the same time as each other that way everyone gets the same amount of rest time as their opponent the following week.

A game in Queensland, Perth, Adelaide, Sydney, Tassie, Docklands, MCG, Kardinia Park and Ballarat. Get it done.
 

mike14

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I maintain the best way to do this is to have the final round all start at the same time as each other that way everyone gets the same amount of rest time as their opponent the following week.

A game in Queensland, Perth, Adelaide, Sydney, Tassie, Docklands, MCG, Kardinia Park and Ballarat. Get it done.
"Super Saturday"
Could be fun, especially if you had teams needing results from other games to go their way as well for top 4/top 8 chances. Fans would be constantly checking scores from around the country; they could even go back to the old footy record days of assigning teams random letters and showing the other scores on the scoreboard :D
AFL would hate it though
 

eth-dog

Premium Gold
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"Super Saturday"
Could be fun, especially if you had teams needing results from other games to go their way as well for top 4/top 8 chances. Fans would be constantly checking scores from around the country; they could even go back to the old footy record days of assigning teams random letters and showing the other scores on the scoreboard :D
AFL would hate it though
It's good enough for the biggest sporting league in the world, why isn't it good enough for the AFL?
 

mike14

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It's good enough for the biggest sporting league in the world, why isn't it good enough for the AFL?
Because they (the AFL) want to maximize the number of people watching each game, so want them spread out so the 'average' fan will watch 3 or 4 games.
Also, (and I assume we're talking about the NFL) aren't games spread out across 3- or 4 broadcasters so you could conceivably switch between games easily?
 

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eth-dog

Premium Gold
Jan 11, 2007
87,413
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Because they (the AFL) want to maximize the number of people watching each game, so want them spread out so the 'average' fan will watch 3 or 4 games.
Also, (and I assume we're talking about the NFL) aren't games spread out across 3- or 4 broadcasters so you could conceivably switch between games easily?
English Premier League
 

naraku

Team Captain
Sep 9, 2017
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Richmond have Geelong's number lately. I don't have a feeling Geelong will take the flag.

Like them or not, I think seeing GAJ finish with a flag and Danger getting his first would be good stories. I just feel Geelong will take it.
 

BrunoV

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2009
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Heart says Danger tears this one to pieces, wins Norm and his first premiership.

Head says, we'll wait to see if it happens.

The two best sides in it this year, and proven consistent powerhouses, playing the best footy and playing off for the premiership. Don't think we have seen a GF like this since 2011.

Hopefully it's a classic either way.
 

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