Preview 2016 Grand Final: Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs

[stefcep]

The best thing about getting a new opponent for the Grand Final? I get to do a new run of stats

First the raw totals for the season so far:

View attachment 292820
Sydney shade the Dogs in most areas, notably Tackles, Hitouts, Contested Possessions, Contested Marks, and of course Goals. The Dogs can lay claim to more Handballs, Uncontested Possessions, and slightly better Disposal Efficiency.

When we narrow the frame to other top 8 sides only, it looks slightly different:

View attachment 292826
Compared to Sydney, when playing against other top 8 sides (including the finals so far), that the Dogs do have a slight lead in both Contested and Uncontested Possessions. They also have a sizeable lead in Inside 50s, Clearances and One Percenters. But the Swans clearly claim the ascendancy in Contested Marks, Hitouts, Tackles, Disposal Efficiency, and the key scoring areas of Goals, Goal Assists and Goal Accuracy.

Drilling further down into which stats differentials are most important:

View attachment 292832

We can see some interesting trends. For example, while we know the Swans don't really care about the Inside 50 differential, the Dogs do - moreover, they typically need to win it by 10+ to win the game. Their average against top 8 sides this season is +10... so we'll see how they go. The Dogs large advantage against Top 8 sides in Uncontested Possession doesn't really correlate with their final score, which is sad for them, but if they do win this stat it will go a long way towards preventing Sydney from getting their game going. The Contested Possessions stat is almost the mirror image.

Marks in 50 are also important to the Dogs, and with this stat likely to break even they may need other avenues to goal. Two other stats counting in our favour are relative Disposal Efficiency, and relative Goal Accuracy. Both of these statistics are important to both sides, although Goal Accuracy is more important to the Dogs, and Disposal Efficiency for the Swans. Sydney are ahead in both of these categories against other top 8 sides, with the discrepancy between the Bulldog's -10% goal accuracy and the Swans +5% particularly savage.

In summary: look for the Dogs to win more of the ball, but despite getting it inside 50 an extra 10 - 20 times, the Swans defenders should prevent them from taking as many marks as they need. Additionally, expect the Swans' marking of the corridor to push the Dogs shots away from their ideal zones, with the result that they will miss more often, appearing wasteful in front of goal. Meanwhile, the Swans' attacking half-backs will seek to rebound the ball quickly up the ground, setting up fewer but more advantageous scoring shots, which should be just enough to secure a victory in a tight entertaining game.

Carn you mighty Bloods!

Great analysis. In summary, the 'dogs scoring efficiency is the key. If the 'dogs kick straight, they win- and it could get ugly because all season they've kept teams in the game when it could have been over at quarter time if not for their atrocious conversion, last week against GWS being the most recent example. BUT it is a Big IF to do it when they haven't all season.

 

[CD__]

Confirmed?

Yep...as per P.Keane on Twitter.

 

[CD__]

I guess there's always Andrew Wu articles if you're looking for something "a bit lighter" to read.

Andrew Wu >>> daylight >>> Sam Landsberger...his one-eyed 'journalism' is genuinely hard to read.

 

[RW]

Dane Rampe hit the nail on the head when they interviewed him straight after the prelim. It's not about the backline. It's the defensive pressure across the team. Our midfield turned the screws on Geelong's mids so they were constantly under the pump and forced to bomb it in. That's why Geelong's scoring efficiency was so terrible. The Swans mids weren't able to do that against GWS and they split us open because they got so much uncontested ball through the middle and gave their forwards quality delivery.

That Papley article on the main board was interesting. He said the Swans senior players talk about one thing...defensive pressure.

Defensive pressure is important, but the Dogs mids will bring that too, so I would argue that being clean when we have the ball will be equally important for this game if not more so. Our ball use was as clean as I've seen it in the first quarter against Geelong, admittedly due to Geelong's lack of pressure, but in a game which is very likely to ebb and flow given both teams' midfields, it will be the team that can make the most of their possessions that will win. This might be one area where we have the edge over the Dogs, at least based on our form in the last two finals.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Andrew Wu >>> daylight >>> Sam Landsberger...his one-eyed 'journalism' is genuinely hard to read.

I was up in Sydney for the GWS game on the weekend and was a bit "underwhelmed" by what was on offer in the local papers, Neil Cordy and Andrew Wu being the main culprits. And to think that Neil used to be one of us. Not any more.

Thankfully when I got to the airport I managed to pick up a Victorian newspaper and was able to get stuck into the 14-odd pages of red-white-and-blue gooey goodness.

 

[Lakeside Swan]

Confirmed?

Yes. Great news. He still has a lot to do with the club and donates heaps of time to the game in general.

 

[Vin Rogue]

Defensive pressure is important, but the Dogs mids will bring that too, so I would argue that being clean when we have the ball will be equally important for this game if not more so. Our ball use was as clean as I've seen it in the first quarter against Geelong, admittedly due to Geelong's lack of pressure, but in a game which is very likely to ebb and flow given both teams' midfields, it will be the team that can make the most of their possessions that will win. This might be one area where we have the edge over the Dogs, at least based on our form in the last two finals.

Felt that we butchered the ball a lot by hand and foot in the Adelaide game, but Adelaide were unable to make us pay. Our handballing in the GWS game was perhaps the worst it has been all year. Missed targets aplenty. I reckon that you are spot on to suggest that our clean and efficient use of the ball will be a great indicator. Focus, composure and intensity. How we deliver the ball will inform us quite early if the boys are switched on. But most important for our team culture is our tackling. Total must exceed the dogs and every single tackle must be brutal. This time we play for keeps. Appetite for the ball falls away rapidly when you are hurt each time you touch it.

 

[RW]

Yes we can butcher it at times but I was referring to our last two first quarters in particular.

 

[CD__]

I was up in Sydney for the GWS game on the weekend and was a bit "underwhelmed" by what was on offer in the local papers, Neil Cordy and Andrew Wu being the main culprits. And to think that Neil used to be one of us. Not any more.

Thankfully when I got to the airport I managed to pick up a Victorian newspaper and was able to get stuck into the 14-odd pages of red-white-and-blue gooey goodness.

Only 14? Mustn't have been a News Ltd publication!

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Only 14? Mustn't have been a News Ltd publication!

Reckon the Sunday Hun had 6 pages of goo at the front and 8 at the back.
Good times.

 

[Tuco]

A few of us might want to have a crack at Razor. Wasn't he the officiating ump who didn't see Stevie Jay's elbow collide with JPK's head?

I think that was why he was dropped for the Prelims just quietly.

 

[CD__]

Reckon the Sunday Hun had 6 pages of goo at the front and 8 at the back.

Today's is very similar.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Today's is very similar.

Sadly I thought that today's Hun suffered a bit of dilution due to a certain suit-wearing-surfer from Moggs Creek. Should be back to regular programming tomorrow though!

 

[Tuco]

I was up in Sydney for the GWS game on the weekend and was a bit "underwhelmed" by what was on offer in the local papers, Neil Cordy and Andrew Wu being the main culprits. And to think that Neil used to be one of us. Not any more.

Thankfully when I got to the airport I managed to pick up a Victorian newspaper and was able to get stuck into the 14-odd pages of red-white-and-blue gooey goodness.

Neil has said on SEN he's barracking for the Dogs this weekend if that makes you feel happier.

 

[Punts]

Any injury updates from ethier side

I know tomorrow is d day but hurry up ffs

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Neil has said on SEN he's barracking for the Dogs this weekend if that makes you feel happier.

Thanks, didn't hear that one. Barry Hall has said the same too I believe.

 

[RW]

The more I think about it this game feels like a must win to restore the damage done to the club's reputation (part self-inflicted after the abject failure of 2014, part undeserved after the Buddy signing). If we win it will prove once and for all that we have a culture and system that works regardless of personnel. To win flags with different playing groups (with some overlap) would be a phenomenal achievement. Just win Bloods!

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Thanks, didn't hear that one. Barry Hall has said the same too I believe.

Not surprised.

One day perhaps BBBH would care to share with the football world the exact nature of his miracle recovery from "Effective immediately I'm retiring from the Swans because if I keep going the way I am with my anger management issues I'm going to permanently cripple someone" to "yeah nah mate, feelin' like playin' some more footy, the body's feelin' good mate, yeah nah, lookin' forward to runnin' out with the Dogs an just playin' some footy mate yeah."

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Thankfully when I got to the airport I managed to pick up a Victorian newspaper and was able to get stuck into the 14-odd pages of red-white-and-blue gooey goodness.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[ThePersianRug]

I was up in Sydney for the GWS game on the weekend and was a bit "underwhelmed" by what was on offer in the local papers, Neil Cordy and Andrew Wu being the main culprits. And to think that Neil used to be one of us. Not any more.

Thankfully when I got to the airport I managed to pick up a Victorian newspaper and was able to get stuck into the 14-odd pages of red-white-and-blue gooey goodness.

Sydney is not like Melbourne and this has been a fact as long as the two cities have been around. People in Sydney will watch a game of rules and read maybe a few articles but on the whole the city just doesnt take sport as seriously as the rest of the country. When a game is over, thats it for the week and onto other things for most.

Wheres Melbourne reminds me of soccer mad countries where all they do is talk about it non stop and when there is nothing to talk about, they create a scandal so theres something to chat about. People consume rules 24/7 365 days a year in Vic.

 

[ThePersianRug]

Neil has said on SEN he's barracking for the Dogs this weekend if that makes you feel happier.

Hasnt he written some grubby articles about the swans recently?

 

[ThePersianRug]

Thanks, didn't hear that one. Barry Hall has said the same too I believe.

Barry was in the swans room after the game, during the interview with Heeney you can see him in the background with that massive grin and he tapped hanners on the arm and they both embraced.

But I dont expect any better from Barry Hall.

 

[strauchanie59]

Roughead not 100% certain to play according to Tom Chadwick from FOX. Certainly believe him more than Mark Stevens.

 

[ThePersianRug]

Not surprised.

One day perhaps BBBH would care to share with the football world the exact nature of his miracle recovery from "Effective immediately I'm retiring from the Swans because if I keep going the way I am with my anger management issues I'm going to permanently cripple someone" to "yeah nah mate, feelin' like playin' some more footy, the body's feelin' good mate, yeah nah, lookin' forward to runnin' out with the Dogs an just playin' some footy mate yeah."

I just wish Brett Kirk was pictured lifting our drought breaking premiership cup, our true spiritual leader, than that boofhead. Would make the whole " I am now more a bulldog than a swan" rubbish a lot more palatable and easy to gurgle and spit out, rather than having a permanent bitter taste in our mouths.

 

[The Gong]

I just wish Brett Kirk was pictured lifting our drought breaking premiership cup, our true spiritual leader, than that boofhead. Would make the whole " I am now more a bulldog than a swan" rubbish a lot more palatable and easy to gurgle and spit out, rather than having a permanent bitter taste in our mouths.

I've got no issue with Barry. He served our club exceptionally well. He was angry at the time but both parties seem to have moved on and patched it up. No hard feelings.