Grand Solar Minimum

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maroon and blue

maroon and blue

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Global warming is based on as yet proven predictive models of the future . Global cooling cycles are based on actual geological events plus human historical records. Global cooling will create world famines, plagues, wars and civilisation collapse of biblical proportions. Only time will tell which view is correct. I'm putting my money on a GSM.
 
maroon and blue said:
Global warming is based on as yet proven predictive models of the future . Global cooling cycles are based on actual geological events plus human historical records. Global cooling will create world famines, plagues, wars and civilisation collapse of biblical proportions. Only time will tell which view is correct. I'm putting my money on a GSM.
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I'm not sure what you are saying. Global warming is based on a clear rise in global temperatures over the last 150 years as well as the documented and increasing sea level rise. The only way the sea level rises is if it's getting hotter. No models needed at all. Very simple, even I can understand it.

Models are needed to work out future progression and to try to tease out the details of the process.

WRT to cooling, I don't think there is any evidence at the current time suggesting the Earth is cooling. Folks speculate that we may have a period of very low solar activity which could drop the temperature but this is just a theory, currently without any evidence to support it. See Cold comfort: The sun is cooling; doesn't mean there'll be no global warming

'NASA says even during a Grand Solar Minimum, the decrease in climate forcing would only be worth as much as three years of carbon dioxide growth in the atmosphere. NASA also said the impact of global warming would be six times greater than the cooling caused by the Grand Solar Minimum, and that even if the period lasted for a century, the planet would continue to warm.

The main proponent of this sun induced cooling is V Zharkova, who previously published a paper claiming the sun was the cause of recent global warming. This paper got a lot of press from climate change deniers, however it was later retracted because it was found to be wrong, in fact it was really stupid. A couple of years later the very same author goes the other way, and claims we are going to hit a cold period. I can't say I have any confidence in their conclusions.



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CD Xbow said:
I'm not sure what you are saying. Global warming is based on a clear rise in global temperatures over the last 150 years as well as the documented and increasing sea level rise. The only way the sea level rises is if it's getting hotter. No models needed at all. Very simple, even I can understand it.

Models are needed to work out future progression and to try to tease out the details of the process.

WRT to cooling, I don't think there is any evidence at the current time suggesting the Earth is cooling. Folks speculate that we may have a period of very low solar activity which could drop the temperature but this is just a theory, currently without any evidence to support it. See Cold comfort: The sun is cooling; doesn't mean there'll be no global warming

'NASA says even during a Grand Solar Minimum, the decrease in climate forcing would only be worth as much as three years of carbon dioxide growth in the atmosphere. NASA also said the impact of global warming would be six times greater than the cooling caused by the Grand Solar Minimum, and that even if the period lasted for a century, the planet would continue to warm.

The main proponent of this sun induced cooling is V Zharkova, who previously published a paper claiming the sun was the cause of recent global warming. This paper got a lot of press from climate change deniers, however it was later retracted because it was found to be wrong, in fact it was really stupid. A couple of years later the very same author goes the other way, and claims we are going to hit a cold period. I can't say I have any confidence in their conclusions.



'
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Here we go. The global warming data is false. What it does is to extrapolate urban heat areas across a whole area as in most cases there are no recording machines. In plain English what is happening is guesswork, equating temperatures from a squirrel in Brooklyn to thousands of kms away on the prairie where there is nothing, I repeat nothing recording actual temperatures. This is replicated all over the world from the untouched jungles in Brazil, Borneo, Cameroons and the outback. What is taken is an average from a concrete/bitumen road in the middle of a massive man made metropolis and the used to fill in the rest of a country. To date no global warming prediction has come true, as each disaster from the doomsayers passes they simply re jig their models to next year, then the year after ad nausea. We are being conned as we have always have been. Now this is the rider, you may be right, or I may be right, but we should consider both opinions at this stage to be plausibly viable. It is the humane thing to do and instigate national policies that are able to accomodate for world famine. I take no comfort if I and others are right or you are right because people will die in horrendous numbers.
 
maroon and blue said:
Here we go. The global warming data is false. What it does is to extrapolate urban heat areas across a whole area as in most cases there are no recording machines. In plain English what is happening is guesswork, equating temperatures from a squirrel in Brooklyn to thousands of kms away on the prairie where there is nothing, I repeat nothing recording actual temperatures. This is replicated all over the world from the untouched jungles in Brazil, Borneo, Cameroons and the outback. What is taken is an average from a concrete/bitumen road in the middle of a massive man made metropolis and the used to fill in the rest of a country. To date no global warming prediction has come true, as each disaster from the doomsayers passes they simply re jig their models to next year, then the year after ad nausea. We are being conned as we have always have been. Now this is the rider, you may be right, or I may be right, but we should consider both opinions at this stage to be plausibly viable. It is the humane thing to do and instigate national policies that are able to accomodate for world famine. I take no comfort if I and others are right or you are right because people will die in horrendous numbers.
Click to expand...
Sorry mate, you are a moron if you believe the temperature data collected from the all over the world for the last 150 years is fake. The speed of sea level rise is increasing, it was about 1.5 mm per year 150 years ago, now it's over 3 mm per year. Please check our Australian data. It's doubled over that time. Sure, you can believe all that data is faked, or you could accept it's real. Which answer is most likely? There is one other fact you should know:

THEY ONLY WAY THE SEA LEVEL RISES IS IF THE OCEAN IS WARMING.

I will also point you to the natural world, where many changes caused by global warming are occurring. Sub tropical fruit bats only started coming to Melbourne only in the 1980's. Irukandji jelly fish, a tropical species, has moved much further south down the Queensland coast. The Great Barrier reef has had it's worst bleaching's this century. Wine makers are buying property in Tasmania to continue production in a warming world. Gardner's in Melbourne have notice they have had to change the types of plants that grow successfully, 'twitches' will tell you the bird population have also changed significantly.

The statement 'no global warming prediction has come true' is simply incorrect and reflects your ignorance. Temperature changes are following very closely what the models predict. Sea level rise has occured as predicted. Loss of Antarctic ice sheets are happening as predictive. Extreme weather events have occurred in line with predictions, perhaps you've had you head up your arse for the last 20 years and missed them. Farming is becoming harder and less profitable, with a 23% loss of profit/efficiency over the last 20 years in Oz. These things have all been predicted and are coming to pass.
 
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CD Xbow said:
Sorry mate, you are a moron if you believe the temperature data collected from the all over the world for the last 150 years is fake. The speed of sea level rise is increasing, it was about 1.5 mm per year 150 years ago, now it's over 3 mm per year. Please check our Australian data. It's doubled over that time. Sure, you can believe all that data is faked, or you could accept it's real. Which answer is most likely? There is one other fact you should know:

THEY ONLY WAY THE SEA LEVEL RISES IS IF THE OCEAN IS WARMING.

I will also point you to the natural world, where many changes caused by global warming are occurring. Sub tropical fruit bats only started coming to Melbourne only in the 1980's. Irukandji jelly fish, a tropical species, has moved much further south down the Queensland coast. The Great Barrier reef has had it's worst bleaching's this century. Wine makers are buying property in Tasmania to continue production in a warming world. Gardner's in Melbourne have notice they have had to change the types of plants that grow successfully, 'twitches' will tell you the bird population have also changed significantly.

The statement 'no global warming prediction has come true' is simply incorrect and reflects your ignorance. Temperature changes are following very closely what the models predict. Sea level rise has occured as predicted. Loss of Antarctic ice sheets are happening as predictive. Extreme weather events have occurred in line with predictions, perhaps you've had you head up your arse for the last 20 years and missed them. Farming is becoming harder and less profitable, with a 23% loss of profit/efficiency over the last 20 years in Oz. These things have all been predicted and are coming to pass.
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I will ignore your vicious attitude and just say that your justification of global warning can be pin pointed by vineyard effects, fruit bat migrations and a nasty jelly fish that have occurred in the last 50 years.Farming has become less competitive due to lack of government support and international competition. Please don't bother to throw up ridiculous examples to justify global warming. You are just wasting your time, as the saying goes, just follow the science. And I suggest try not to get unbalanced about opposite opinions.
 
maroon and blue said:
I will ignore your vicious attitude and just say that your justification of global warning can be pin pointed by vineyard effects, fruit bat migrations and a nasty jelly fish that have occurred in the last 50 years.Farming has become less competitive due to lack of government support and international competition. Please don't bother to throw up ridiculous examples to justify global warming. You are just wasting your time, as the saying goes, just follow the science. And I suggest try not to get unbalanced about opposite opinions.
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Mmmm, I think I can claim to following the science, you my friend are in cuckoo land.
 
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CD Xbow said:
Sorry mate, you are a moron if you believe the temperature data collected from the all over the world for the last 150 years is fake. The speed of sea level rise is increasing, it was about 1.5 mm per year 150 years ago, now it's over 3 mm per year. Please check our Australian data. It's doubled over that time. Sure, you can believe all that data is faked, or you could accept it's real. Which answer is most likely? There is one other fact you should know:

THEY ONLY WAY THE SEA LEVEL RISES IS IF THE OCEAN IS WARMING.

I will also point you to the natural world, where many changes caused by global warming are occurring. Sub tropical fruit bats only started coming to Melbourne only in the 1980's. Irukandji jelly fish, a tropical species, has moved much further south down the Queensland coast. The Great Barrier reef has had it's worst bleaching's this century. Wine makers are buying property in Tasmania to continue production in a warming world. Gardner's in Melbourne have notice they have had to change the types of plants that grow successfully, 'twitches' will tell you the bird population have also changed significantly.

The statement 'no global warming prediction has come true' is simply incorrect and reflects your ignorance. Temperature changes are following very closely what the models predict. Sea level rise has occured as predicted. Loss of Antarctic ice sheets are happening as predictive. Extreme weather events have occurred in line with predictions, perhaps you've had you head up your arse for the last 20 years and missed them. Farming is becoming harder and less profitable, with a 23% loss of profit/efficiency over the last 20 years in Oz. These things have all been predicted and are coming to pass.
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Your assertions are ludicrous and simply stupid. I must admit your justifications for a global warming event produced a wry smile from me. Next you will be suggesting a gelato ice cream purchased in Barkly st St.Kilda slid off its cone is clear evidence of global warming. Your politically inspired aggression is pathetic.
 
Australia is experiencing its best start to a snow season in 50 years. An unheard conveyor belt of 3 arctic cold fronts are happening at this moment.
 
CD Xbow said:
Sorry mate, you are a moron if you believe the temperature data collected from the all over the world for the last 150 years is fake. The speed of sea level rise is increasing, it was about 1.5 mm per year 150 years ago, now it's over 3 mm per year. Please check our Australian data. It's doubled over that time. Sure, you can believe all that data is faked, or you could accept it's real. Which answer is most likely? There is one other fact you should know:

THEY ONLY WAY THE SEA LEVEL RISES IS IF THE OCEAN IS WARMING.

I will also point you to the natural world, where many changes caused by global warming are occurring. Sub tropical fruit bats only started coming to Melbourne only in the 1980's. Irukandji jelly fish, a tropical species, has moved much further south down the Queensland coast. The Great Barrier reef has had it's worst bleaching's this century. Wine makers are buying property in Tasmania to continue production in a warming world. Gardner's in Melbourne have notice they have had to change the types of plants that grow successfully, 'twitches' will tell you the bird population have also changed significantly.

The statement 'no global warming prediction has come true' is simply incorrect and reflects your ignorance. Temperature changes are following very closely what the models predict. Sea level rise has occured as predicted. Loss of Antarctic ice sheets are happening as predictive. Extreme weather events have occurred in line with predictions, perhaps you've had you head up your arse for the last 20 years and missed them. Farming is becoming harder and less profitable, with a 23% loss of profit/efficiency over the last 20 years in Oz. These things have all been predicted and are coming to pass.
Click to expand...
Ask your parents about Tim Flannery's 2005 "scientific" modelling on where the earth would be now.....

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Is human made global warming possible, Yes, does the activity of the suns radiation or lack thereof affect the earth, also yes. To claim that human global warming is affecting the planet and no other scenario is important is, no. Earth weather is not mutually exclusive, it is possible to have more than one cause of effect. We all need to keep and open mind and if we do it will benefit us and the natural world.
 
ToddaRools said:
Ask your parents about Tim Flannery's 2005 "scientific" modelling on where the earth would be now.....

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My parents are both dead.

Predictions from modelling have been close to reality. What Are Climate Models and How Accurate Are They?

I went to a talk more than 15 years ago, where Tim Flannery predicted renewables would become cheaper and adopted much faster that the federal government predictions. It has come to pass.

I will repeat my earlier point, if the ocean level is rising, it's the only way that can happen is if it's getting hotter.

maroon and blue said:
Brisbane has just had its coldest start to winter since 1904 which incidentally was the Centennial solar minimum.
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Weather is NOT climate.
 
CD Xbow said:
My parents are both dead.

Predictions from modelling have been close to reality. What Are Climate Models and How Accurate Are They?

I went to a talk more than 15 years ago, where Tim Flannery predicted renewables would become cheaper and adopted much faster that the federal government predictions. It has come to pass.

I will repeat my earlier point, if the ocean level is rising, it's the only way that can happen is if it's getting hotter.



Weather is NOT climate.
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But will you accept that the solar system has a critical effect on the earth. I do not deny that human civilisation can have a detrimental effect on ecosystems. It is possible that global warming and solar activity are both truisms. They are not mutually exclusive.
 
CD Xbow said:
My parents are both dead.

Predictions from modelling have been close to reality. What Are Climate Models and How Accurate Are They?

I went to a talk more than 15 years ago, where Tim Flannery predicted renewables would become cheaper and adopted much faster that the federal government predictions. It has come to pass.

I will repeat my earlier point, if the ocean level is rising, it's the only way that can happen is if it's getting hotter.



Weather is NOT climate.
Click to expand...
no global warming model has been correct so far.
 
People who believe in Global Warming have a condition called historical myopia. They have no understanding of climate history. Their hubris is founded on the belief that only their lifetime experience captures the reality of the earth climate dynamics. Implicit in their myopia is that carbon dioxide is the single most important driver of climate. For the last 4000 years the earth has been cooling episodicly not linearly. Increased carbon dioxide levels has less effect than other natural causes. Solar activity or lack thereof has a historically large affect on world climate. We are currently in a downward trend of the Gleissberg cycle,.
 
Last edited:
CD Xbow said:
Sorry mate, you are a moron if you believe the temperature data collected from the all over the world for the last 150 years is fake. The speed of sea level rise is increasing, it was about 1.5 mm per year 150 years ago, now it's over 3 mm per year. Please check our Australian data. It's doubled over that time. Sure, you can believe all that data is faked, or you could accept it's real. Which answer is most likely? There is one other fact you should know:

THEY ONLY WAY THE SEA LEVEL RISES IS IF THE OCEAN IS WARMING.

I will also point you to the natural world, where many changes caused by global warming are occurring. Sub tropical fruit bats only started coming to Melbourne only in the 1980's. Irukandji jelly fish, a tropical species, has moved much further south down the Queensland coast. The Great Barrier reef has had it's worst bleaching's this century. Wine makers are buying property in Tasmania to continue production in a warming world. Gardner's in Melbourne have notice they have had to change the types of plants that grow successfully, 'twitches' will tell you the bird population have also changed significantly.

The statement 'no global warming prediction has come true' is simply incorrect and reflects your ignorance. Temperature changes are following very closely what the models predict. Sea level rise has occured as predicted. Loss of Antarctic ice sheets are happening as predictive. Extreme weather events have occurred in line with predictions, perhaps you've had you head up your arse for the last 20 years and missed them. Farming is becoming harder and less profitable, with a 23% loss of profit/efficiency over the last 20 years in Oz. These things have all been predicted and are coming to pass.
Click to expand...

Imagine if they start brewing beer using local crops in Greenland!
 
maroon and blue said:
Here we go. The global warming data is false. What it does is to extrapolate urban heat areas across a whole area as in most cases there are no recording machines. In plain English what is happening is guesswork, equating temperatures from a squirrel in Brooklyn to thousands of kms away on the prairie where there is nothing, I repeat nothing recording actual temperatures. This is replicated all over the world from the untouched jungles in Brazil, Borneo, Cameroons and the outback. What is taken is an average from a concrete/bitumen road in the middle of a massive man made metropolis and the used to fill in the rest of a country. To date no global warming prediction has come true, as each disaster from the doomsayers passes they simply re jig their models to next year, then the year after ad nausea. We are being conned as we have always have been. Now this is the rider, you may be right, or I may be right, but we should consider both opinions at this stage to be plausibly viable. It is the humane thing to do and instigate national policies that are able to accomodate for world famine. I take no comfort if I and others are right or you are right because people will die in horrendous numbers.
Click to expand...

One of my personal favourites is how they reference atmospheric CO2 readings taken from an active volcanic island. Yet none of the climate change apologists choose to question the legitimacy of this.
 
Germany, Austria and Italy are firing up their coal power plants to combat the shortfall in demand due to green energy failing.
 
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