Analysis Greater Western Juggernaut: How Do we stack Up?

[VDS66]

Some warranted concern yesterday. So I thought I'd throw this open to all you list analysers...

Not everything that GWS has touched has turned to gold in terms of their selections. Granted they have had access to an obscene amount of high draft picks, and look like raising the bar in terms of competition.

But let's take a step back. Firstly, salary cap dictates that unless their guns are willing to play for $450k per season, they will eventually lose some top end talent and come back towards the pack to a degree.

secondly, we are rebuilding and according to Trout, we are actively seeking to bring in elite talent so that we can match them. will we be able to match them in terms of depth? Probably not.

so here's my question: Position wise how does our best 22 stack up in terms on of talent and potential. Keep in mind that we are technically 4 or 5 years behind them.

For example, I reckon our key forwards are evenly matched once Paddy plays more games. Their mids are better.

I'd be interested to see how people see players like Newnes, Jweb, Robbo etc compared to their equivalents. The reason I ask is that whilst they have had access to high picks, not all of them will be elite or even A grade players. Yet we have players like Bruce, Weller and Members whom weren't top 10 but are very good players.

Let's compare apples with apples. Over to you...

 

[Lightsxo]

Their midfield is bloody frightening.

 

[Glen Buterol]

Too many concessions & too much talent on their list to compete. They can afford to stuff up numerous draft selections with the amount of depth on their list & projected to be on their list with future academy selections.

The competition has never seen a team built like this & im concerned their era of dominance spreads for a decade plus given their current talent, tradeable talent & future talent. Trading quality players for more early picks only extends their era of dominance through spreading their age demographic.

I'm concerned.

 

[TassieSaint]

On paper they have a far, far better list than us and it is hard to not see that translating to on field success.

Honestly makes me sick the AFL has spent millions so a plastic club with no fans can dominate and likely deny long suffering supporters of teams like us and the dogs, the lifeblood of the game, the ultimate success. Can you imagine how much a flag would mean to us? But inevitably when GWS wins you will see the slightest ripple of a handful of Sydneysiders going 'The Giants won the AFL did they?' whilst scratching there heads to see if they can remember the names of any players.

I just hope our window, should it come, opens after they've peaked.

 

[DT_35]

Mumford and Shaw both 30, probably 2 seasons left each. Lobb can't ruck Full time so they'll have to bring another 1 in somehow.

 

[joop]

The big problem is that when they start to lose some of their guns, they will receive high draft picks for them.
It'll just be revolving door of talent at that club.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

Their depth is what scares me. Possibly unparalleled in AFL history, and their ability to trade this depth will ensure they continue to access top end talent even when at the pointy end of the ladder. Lucky pr**ks

However, if the AFLPA get their way and the free agency cutoff is reduced to 6 years for RFA, this could be the game-changer. Cameron, Sheil etc instantly become more attainable, and maybe the rest of the comp can collectively dismantle the list (we can hope)

In terms of comparison, their midfield is in another stratosphere. Surprisingly the rest stacks up damn well though

 

[gringo2011]

Their depth is what scares me. Possibly unparalleled in AFL history, and their ability to trade this depth will ensure they continue to access top end talent even when at the pointy end of the ladder. Lucky pr**ks

However, if the AFLPA get there way and the free agency cutoff is reduced, this could be the game-changer. Cameron, Sheil etc instantly become FA, and maybe the rest of the comp can collectively dismantle the list (we can hope)

In terms of comparison, their midfield is in another stratosphere. Surprisingly the rest stacks up damn well though

It's never going to go open season on FA or the smaller clubs with no money will cease to compete and will be 10 years max until there are 4 Melbourne clubs. They go and the AFL will start to contract until it's a sporting minnow. People won't follow the comp if it gets to inequitable and the grass roots clubs start shutting down or going interstate/merging.

They have set it up so no matter how many leave they can get first round picks to replace them. They will have 10 plus years at the top and the good players in a contending team don't usually leave unless it's for ridiculous overs.

 

[gringo2011]

The big problem is that when they start to lose some of their guns, they will receive high draft picks for them.
It'll just be revolving door of talent at that club.

Once they start playing finals and are close not many will want out if they are getting regular games. They will keep bringing in high picks developing them then on selling them. They can afford to lose anyone who doesn't come on quickly and replace raging stars with quality. It's going to be scary how good they will be.

 

[George]

They should put all their money into recruitment/list management because if they can draft well, they'll be successful for the next 25 years. Like many have said they can trade out players who don't fit the system and get high picks for them. If they continue to recruit well there's no stopping them, if they make a few blunders in that space then the door opens for clubs like us.

 

[JG22]

It will take another decade to 15 years for their concessions to run out and be on an even playing field with other teams.

 

[Glen Buterol]

It will take another decade to 15 years for their concessions to run out and be on an even playing field with other teams.

They could win 10 flags over the next 15 years IMO.

 

[t_94]

Forget it. Not even close. 27 first round draft picks on the list.

 

[lewdogs]

I don't know how we are going to do it, but we need to inject quality into our midfield if we are going to be any chance of competing with GWS. By my reckoning we need about four more A grade midfielders and/or massive improvement from those on the list.

 

[Nutsngum]

Theyve won one final so far versus a sloppy as hell sydney side. Perhaps we are overreacting just a little early?

 

[JG22]

Theyve won one final so far versus a sloppy as hell sydney side. Perhaps we are overreacting just a little early?

Maybe
But its only the start

 

[Plumber66]

This went off topic pretty quick. Pretty sure the poster was looking at direct player comparison per position.

For example how will Paddy compare to Cameron. How does Jake compare to their cub?

Whilst I can see the depth issue, can we build a top 25 to equal them?

 

[Mowman]

This went off topic pretty quick. Pretty sure the poster was looking at direct player comparison per position.

For example how will Paddy compare to Cameron. How does Jake compare to their cub?

Whilst I can see the depth issue, can we build a top 25 to equal them?

No

 

[Plumber66]

No

Disagree.

 

[Mowman]

Disagree.

Hope you're right

 

[gringo2011]

Forget it. Not even close. 27 first round draft picks on the list.

And academy kids, 17 yo drafts, zone selections and other assorted concessions to keep players from ever making it to the draft.

 

[St Kilda Death]

Im not terrified.
They will lose players. Not all their draft picks will pay off.
Yes the AFL will try to prop them up in the top 4 like they have with sydney, but sydney has got 2 flags in the last decade not 10.
(Not bad i must say)
Every team will have their chance to build up and challenge.

 

[sonnywalters]

Out of interest does anyone know how many top 10 draft picks GWS have compared with Gold Coast?
I am happy to figure it out but didn't want to do the work if someone already knows.

A quick browse tells me the GC have about 8-9 and GWS have 13-15.

How did this happen?
By comparison most other clubs have 4 or 5.

 

[sonnywalters]

Im not terrified.
They will lose players. Not all their draft picks will pay off.
Yes the AFL will try to prop them up in the top 4 like they have with sydney, but sydney has got 2 flags in the last decade not 10.
(Not bad i must say)
Every team will have their chance to build up and challenge.

They are going to finish 4th at the absolute worst this year and they will end up with 2 or 3 draft selections before our first pick. We finished 9th....
How can teams build up and challenge?

 

[sonnywalters]

Theyve won one final so far versus a sloppy as hell sydney side. Perhaps we are overreacting just a little early?

Sydney had 8 blokes playing with under 50 games. That is too many kids imo.
GWS only had two blokes under 50 games and one of them is Rory Lobb who is 23 and no kid.
GWS then had 13 blokes in the sweet spot 50-99 games.

This suggests to me that GWS are approaching their sweet stop in the next three years while the Swans are genuinely a side in transition. If you analyse their lists then the Swans should not have been flag favourites this year. The GWS list actually looks more settled and balanced.

This is why I am tipping a GWS v Crows Grand Final.

The Doggies are easily the youngest side in the finals and if they can stay healthy and make the right calls over the trade period they should be top 4 next year for sure.