Greatest Dynasty of the 21st century - Lions vs Cats vs Hawks vs Tigers

Which dynasty is the greatest?


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Apr 20, 2014
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Go back to your impartiality act, at least you were faking it and occasionally succeeding. Posts like this are boringly familiar, biased nonsense like your fellow Richmond woofers.

I love it- Richmond fans instructing a Saints fan on how to read the form line between Richmond and Collingwood! All the excuses when Richmond get thrashed, but want to talk about 2015-2017 when Collingwood were finishing 12th and 13th.

This forum is too predictable 🤦‍♂️

I haven't instructed anything.

I've used YOUR terms of reference that YOU chose to IGNORE in an effort to downgrade the Tiges, this is fact.

You haven't refuted any of it.

You say the Saints game is irrelevant because of injury to key player, but the Pies result stands even though we just lost Rance.

Are you standing by that?

Or have you just got the shits that you've been caught in your own circle work?




You take pot shots at MR for jumping from place to place, but you're happy to do it......when it suits your argument.
 
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Go back to your impartiality act, at least you were faking it and occasionally succeeding. Posts like this are boringly familiar, biased nonsense like your fellow Richmond woofers.

I love it- Richmond fans instructing a Saints fan on how to read the form line between Richmond and Collingwood! All the excuses when Richmond get thrashed, but want to talk about 2015-2017 when Collingwood were finishing 12th and 13th.

This forum is too predictable 🤦‍♂️
No, it's not biased.

How does me pointing out that you pick and choose relevance to suit become an example of me showing bias? How?
 

PJays

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You say the Saints game is irrelevant because of injury to key player, but the Pies result stands even though we just lost Rance.

Are you standing by that?

Oh dear. You're really struggling here.

Context is your friend.

Mr Noid was using Saints 2020 in some kind of argument about Richmond's odds in 2019. Like as if Richmond being $1.40 in 2020 against StKilda has any relevance whatsoever to Richmond's odds in 2019.

Try to follow the arguments a little more closely if you're going to accuse me of inconsistency....
 

Noidnadroj

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Totally agree, with the caveat that some teams obviously need a little more luck than others. Not all luck is equal.

My own club undoubtedly unlucky.
As I explained in some detail a while back, if certain AFL rules were as they are today we'd almost certainly have won at least one of the 2004, 2009 and 2010 flags. Our chances would've increased significantly in each year, were it not for a crowd invasion, a poster being called a goal, and AFL being one of the only professional sports anywhere (the only?) who replays Grand Finals. All 3 rules subsequently changed or improved.

But this is where I disagree about blaming a single little piece of luck- good or bad, on flag results. The pitch invasion happened ... how does anyone know if a change in the games momentum wasn’t going to occur anyway?

Hawkins goal gets called a point. The ball doesn’t go to the middle and the entire game changes. Saints might have kicked it out straight to a Cats player. Was there lucky free kicks the Saints got in the first half resulting in goals? Probably.

And the ‘draw’. Saints may have won in extra time, maybe not. But it wasn’t bad luck they got beaten in the replay. They had multiple chances to win the flag in 2009 and 2010 where luck was not a factor (goal kicking in first half of 2009 etc...) - and ultimately didn’t execute. So is relying on luck to win because you’ve failed to execute non-luck related things like skill, really then bad luck if you lose?

It’s a great philosophical discussion... and probably where the saying: ‘winners are grinners and losers can please themselves’ comes from.

At the end of the day all anyone can really do is point to the scoreboard ...




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Apr 20, 2014
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Oh dear. You're really struggling here.

Context is your friend.

Mr Noid was using Saints 2020 in some kind of argument about Richmond's odds in 2019. Like as if Richmond being $1.40 in 2020 against StKilda has any relevance whatsoever to Richmond's odds in 2019.

Try to follow the arguments a little more closely if you're going to accuse me of inconsistency....
Yes, context IS your friend

Saints 2020 irrelevant, especially when missing Ryder (3rd B&F on votes/ game), Gresham and Carlisle. But diff yr, diff circumstances
YOU said the game was irrelevant, not me. Because injuries.
Once Collingwood smashed them in a prelim and again early in 2019,
Early 19 should be irrelevant, because injuries. But YOU keep using that an an example of why the Pies were a chance. That's YOUR contradiction, no one elses.

I'm not the one struggling here. Try to keep up. I know it's hard when you're arguing against yourself because you don't have a solid position, but rely on changing positions to maintain an invalid argument.
 

PJays

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Yes, context IS your friend


YOU said the game was irrelevant, not me. Because injuries.

Early 19 should be irrelevant, because injuries. But YOU keep using that an an example of why the Pies were a chance. That's YOUR contradiction, no one elses.

I'm not the one struggling here. Try to keep up. I know it's hard when you're arguing against yourself because you don't have a solid position, but rely on changing positions to maintain an invalid argument.
Yes Saints odds in 2020 irrelevant to Collingwood and Richmond odds in 2019, for a range of reasons including the Saints injuries but mostly because it's a different team in a different year with different variables!!!!!!

I wasn't saying THE RESULT OF THE GAME was irrelevant

Come on, try harder than this. Pretty pathetic trying to pin me for inconsistency when you haven't made the slightest effort to understand the argument.
 
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Yes Saints odds in 2020 irrelevant to Collingwood and Richmond odds in 2019, for a range of reasons including the Saints injuries but mostly because it's a different team in a different year with different variables!!!!!!

I wasn't saying THE RESULT OF THE GAME was irrelevant

Come on, try harder than this. Pretty pathetic trying to pin me for inconsistency when you haven't made the slightest effort to understand the argument.
One was relating to odds, one to game.

Point stands you made allowances for Saints, but not for Tiges in your argument.

Still valid.
 

Final Siren

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Geelong and Hawthorn fans absolutely don’t vote for each other

in fact Hawthorn posters vote either Hawthorn or Brisbane (threepeat factor, you take threepeat is minimum, then chose hawks or lions)

Richmond posters the most likely to select another team (of the 4 sets) Brisbane overwhelmingly the choice in the other 14 sets of posters.
I love these kinds of things. I did a thread once analysing ladder predictions posted on BigFooty, and people absolutely do tip teams they don't like to finish lower, e.g. Cats and Hawks fans always expect the other to have a bad year.

There's a significant Vic / non-Vic divide in this poll... neutrals do favour Brisbane, but it's only 55% of neutral Victorian fans vs 72% of neutral non-Vic fans.
 
Apr 20, 2014
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PJays I saw the post.

Certainly didn't take it personally.


I admit I misunderstood the context of Saints, but I didn't misrepresent the context of the argument I was making even considering that.

The pretext stands. You make allowances for that with Saints in that particular situation. But in judging Richmond, you didn't make allowances for circumstance when describing their smashing.

That part is bang on. Losing our best back, the comps best back, had a massive effect the very first week we didn't have him. I'd expect the same would happen to most sides. To not consider that when judging a "form line" for an argument is disingenuous at best


I don't know why when pulled up on something you can't (or won't) acknowledge it.

This thread must bring you great joy.
 
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Sydney’s 2014 season, Collingwood’s 2003 season and Port’s 2007 season show us that teams enter Grand Finals in impeccable form dating back many months and end up getting spanked.
What do all of those teams have in common?
They all got spanked by teams that won multiple premierships in quick succession.
You know who else has done that?
 

PJays

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The pretext stands. You make allowances for that with Saints in that particular situation. But in judging Richmond, you didn't make allowances for circumstance when describing their smashing.

You still don't get it, do you?

I wasn't "making allowances for the Saints", I was describing rational reasons why their odds in the semi final against Richmond should not be used as a guide to understand Richmond's odds in the 2019 finals! Along with the fact that Richmond themselves had a different set of circumstances. The whole idea of comparing 2 games in different years to compare odds is....well, odd!

As far as Rance, he was missing in Round 2 of 2019. Collingwood led all game from the 7 minute mark of Q1 and held a comfortable lead for most of the match and ran out 44 point winners. "Smashing" maybe slightly hyperbolic but 44 points and leading all day is a very convincing win in anybody's books.

Rance is one player out of 22. Richmond and Collingwood fielded strong sides that day and Collingwood beat them easily. It's not necessary to note- every time I refer to this match- that Rance was missing. I'm merely describing the relevant form line for a hypothetical 2019 GF matchup- which is that over the last 5 games it's Richmond 3 to Collingwood 2 with both teams having convincing wins against the other in the previous 12 months. One of Collingwood's was a final and Richmond's was the most recent. I consider 2018 and 2019 most important as both teams were strong contenders and I don't see the relevance of 2015-2017 when Collingwood were struggling and were losing their matchups against most teams. Not when they'd had 2 subsequent strong wins vs Richmond.

In my view as a neutral fan this all cumulatively adds up to demonstrate the H2H form being basically equal. It is not overly relevant that Rance was missing in one of those games within the context of the overall form line. There would've been players missing from both teams in most of those games!
 
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Apr 20, 2014
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As far as Rance, he was missing in Round 2 of 2019. Collingwood led all game from the 7 minute mark of Q1 and held a comfortable lead for most of the match and ran out 44 point winners. "Smashing" maybe slightly hyperbolic but 44 points and leading all day is a very convincing win in anybody's books.

Rance is one player out of 22. Richmond and Collingwood fielded strong sides that day and Collingwood beat them easily. It's not necessary to note- every time I refer to this match- that Rance was missing. I'm merely describing the relevant form line for a hypothetical 2019 GF matchup- which is that over the last 5 games it's Richmond 3 to Collingwood 2 with both teams having convincing wins against the other in the previous 12 months. One of Collingwood's was a final and Richmond's was the most recent. I consider 2018 and 2019 most important as both teams were strong contenders and I don't see the relevance of 2015-2017 when Collingwood were struggling and were losing their matchups against most teams.

In my view as a neutral fan this all cumulatively adds up to demonstrate the H2H form being basically equal. It is not overly relevant that Rance was missing in one of those games within the context of the overall form line.
Nah, it was a smashing, we were a shambles. No issue with that being the label applied.

That's the point. We adjusted, over a period of maybe, going on memory 4-5 weeks? I reckon we lost another couple early.

We were disorganised because Rance was the lynchpin and we didn't know how to function without him.

Once settled, the return game was a more accurate reflection because Rance or not, the system had returned.



I actually think in 18 the Pies were very close to us in general. I went to both games and they were much tighter than the scores suggest. We flopped into finals and were exposed, the better side won.

But we were a different gravy back end of 19. The round 19 game showed the gap between the sides. Argue odds all you like, I simply won't agree that the GF was a 55/45 or 60/40 game. You can call it bias, call it what you want. It's not, it's my punters eyes. The same eyes that rank the Tigers as the lowest dynasty.
 

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Nah, it was a smashing, we were a shambles. No issue with that being the label applied.

That's the point. We adjusted, over a period of maybe, going on memory 4-5 weeks? I reckon we lost another couple early.

We were disorganised because Rance was the lynchpin and we didn't know how to function without him.

Once settled, the return game was a more accurate reflection because Rance or not, the system had returned.



I actually think in 18 the Pies were very close to us in general. I went to both games and they were much tighter than the scores suggest. We flopped into finals and were exposed, the better side won.

But we were a different gravy back end of 19. The round 19 game showed the gap between the sides. Argue odds all you like, I simply won't agree that the GF was a 55/45 or 60/40 game. You can call it bias, call it what you want. It's not, it's my punters eyes. The same eyes that rank the Tigers as the lowest dynasty.
Fair enough.

I follow the odds closely (more out of interest, as I rarely bet) and I'm absolutely certain that Richmond would've been between $1.60 and $1.90 if they'd been playing Collingwood in the GF, depending on Collingwood's exact form in the prelim. I said $1.70 to $1.90 before but $1.60 to $1.90 perhaps a better range. Either way, absolutely no way known Richmond would've been $1.40 like they were vs GWS, or even $1.50 against an MCG team with reasonable H2H against them and a 6 game win streak.

We'll never know. Agree to disagree :thumbsu:
 
Apr 20, 2014
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Fair enough.

I follow the odds closely (more out of interest, as I rarely bet) and I'm absolutely certain that Richmond would've been between $1.60 and $1.90 if they'd been playing Collingwood in the GF, depending on Collingwood's exact form in the prelim. I said $1.70 to $1.90 before but either way, absolutely no way known Richmond would've been $1.40 like they were vs GWS, or even $1.50 against an MCG team with reasonable H2H against them and a 6 game win streak.

We'll never know. Agree to disagree :thumbsu:




I have a fund with a mate of mine. Purely for football and golf betting. You can usually get markets well in advance of a week out with the right corporates.
We literally go through each week and look for market "errors", predicting which matches have the odds "wrong" and predicting where the price will move to.

We then bet. Wait for the price to move to an acceptable price, than back the other side. Most times we get to a position where both sides show a profit. Thats the aim, low margin, high turnover. It's hard work, but a very safe ay to make decent money long term.

Golf is even better, if you lose on the golf, you're doing it all wrong. But that's a story for another thread, another day. Golf is the best betting sport in the world.
 
And it was just coincidence that you started at 2015, right?

I keep hearing how the pies have the wood or edge over us. Facts prove otherwise.
 

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I have a fund with a mate of mine. Purely for football and golf betting. You can usually get markets well in advance of a week out with the right corporates.
We literally go through each week and look for market "errors", predicting which matches have the odds "wrong" and predicting where the price will move to.

We then bet. Wait for the price to move to an acceptable price, than back the other side. Most times we get to a position where both sides show a profit. Thats the aim, low margin, high turnover. It's hard work, but a very safe ay to make decent money long term.

Golf is even better, if you lose on the golf, you're doing it all wrong. But that's a story for another thread, another day. Golf is the best betting sport in the world.
Just hope your partner in your betting fund is not a Richmond supporter and balances your clear bias...
 
Yes, context IS your friend


YOU said the game was irrelevant, not me. Because injuries.

Early 19 should be irrelevant, because injuries. But YOU keep using that an an example of why the Pies were a chance. That's YOUR contradiction, no one elses.

I'm not the one struggling here. Try to keep up. I know it's hard when you're arguing against yourself because you don't have a solid position, but rely on changing positions to maintain an invalid argument.

Dude, stop, you’ll go up on murder charges. You’re killing him.
 

Fadge

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I keep hearing how the pies have the wood or edge over us. Facts prove otherwise.
Let's look at some 'facts' from a pro-Collingwood perspective, instead of conveniently stopping where a 7 game winning streak for Collingwood commences if you were to go any further back...

1. Richmond have won 1 of their most recent 4 matches against Collingwood;
2. Record since 2008 (including 2008 for the benefit of Meteoric Ruse), which is reasonable since it is at around the start of the careers of some of the older players in the respective teams: Collingwood 10, Richmond 7 (one draw);
3. All Time Record: Collingwood 119, Richmond 91 (two draws);

Record comfortably in Collingwood's favour.

How do you like them 'facts'?
 

Noidnadroj

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Richmond 'the best team in the competition' after not even making the previous year's Grand Final, finishing 3rd in the 2019 Home and Away season, and having a far less impressive Preliminary Final win over Geelong than Collingwood's Qualifying Final win over Geelong?

Richmond would have been faves, but probably $1.65 or $1.70. PJays has suggested a 55/45 game, I reckon a 60/40.

But they're pretty good odds given the 2018 Preliminary Final was 70/30 in Richmond's favour according to the bookies.

If Richmond weren’t the best team in the comp after beating Geelong in the prelim to complete an 11-game winning streak who was ?


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Just hope your partner in your betting fund is not a Richmond supporter and balances your clear bias...
I've made more money betting against the Tiges than backing them over the years. The $$$ is more important than team loyalties.

But yes, he's a Hawk.
 

Noidnadroj

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As i have proven with facts, either way (v GWS or Collingwood), Richmond were never going to lose 2019. Geelong was the second best team in the comp. We handled them in the prelim. Collingwood were lucky they didn't make the GF for what would of happened. You said they were on a streak in 2019. What type of streak is it when the eventual premiers hand your arse back to you on a plate by 5+ goals in super wet conditions in R19? And how bad were Collingwood to be beaten by a team without one of their top 4 players and their best defender and leader on one leg in the second half? How is it even conceivable they were going to be competitive (in a hypothetical world) when they couldn't even beat a team with a record you have highlighted? It's a nonsensical argument. Good day to you sir.

You’re under selling it ...GWS were missing : Ward, Greene, Coniglio & Whitfield ... plus an injured Davis.

And as outlined many times, GWS are terrible at the MCG with a 3-9 record, right? But the Pies were going to beat Richmond 8-9 times out of 20 without DeGoey ... a Richmond team whose record at the G is 43-7 in the last 50 or something ridiculous. No, I doubt it.


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PJays

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On neutral votes only, it's Brisbane 165, Geelong 55, Hawthorn 43, Richmond 9.

Or:

Bris 60.7%
Geelong 20.2%
Hawthorn 15.8%
Rich 3.3%

It's all about the aura. Brisbane just had it. In spades.

They dethroned the great Essendon team who'd had the most dominant season in 70 odd years the previous year. In 2003 people were starting to think Brisbane were getting past it before they belted a red hot Collingwood team for their 3rd in a row. Essendon and Collingwood are power clubs who get the media and the vibe going in Melbourne when they're up and about. Both those games are etched into people's memories and contribute massively to the folklore surrounding Brisbane. Along with many strong finals performances.

The thing is, an aura is a feeling. When you analyse it rationally by reviewing all the stats and trying to remember watching Brisbane play rather than the feeling you got about them afterwards, you realize they weren't quite as great as you felt at the time.
 

RichLeMonde

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Or:

Bris 60.7%
Geelong 20.2%
Hawthorn 15.8%
Rich 3.3%

It's all about the aura. Brisbane just had it. In spades.

They dethroned the great Essendon team who'd had the most dominant season in 70 odd years the previous year. In 2003 people were starting to think Brisbane were getting past it before they belted a red hot Collingwood team for their 3rd in a row. Essendon and Collingwood are power clubs who get the media and the vibe going in Melbourne when they're up and about. Both those games are etched into people's memories and contribute massively to the folklore surrounding Brisbane. Along with many strong finals performances.

The thing is, an aura is a feeling. When you analyse it rationally by reviewing all the stats and trying to remember watching Brisbane play rather than the feeling you got about them afterwards, you realize they weren't quite as great as you felt at the time.
100% this
 
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