Greatest Dynasty of the 21st century - Lions vs Cats vs Hawks vs Tigers

Which dynasty is the greatest?


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Noidnadroj

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:think:

Hawthorn had a better H&A record in 2013 and 2011 (when we finished 3rd) than Tigers 2018. Not sure how Richmond came close to dominating. I guess comparative to weak opposition.... we did finish the H&A season 4th in 2018.

Yet I'd say our 2012/2014 were even better teams than our 2011/13 teams. 17/5 and massive % in 2014 with a whole raft of guns out for extended periods and Clarko missing 5 weeks too. The 5 losses doesn't suggest we dominated, but as the GF showed, when we were close to full strength we were basically untouchable.

Richmond finished 2-games and huge percentage clear on top in 2018 …. to gauge the dominance of a team it has to be relative to the performance of other teams that season.

In 2011/13 there were new clubs in GC and GWS handing teams gimme wins and huge percentage. Throw in basket case Melbourne and most interstate teams struggling and it’s clear why each season teams need to be compared to other teams that season, not other seasons.


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LightTower4

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Brisbane for me. One of those final series they were shafted a bit, but still prevailed.
Hawks favored a bit by expansion clubs and the draft diluted. Still a great effort all the same.
3 on the trot > 3 in 4 years Tigers >3 in 5 years Cats.
If Mason Cox had played one of his regular games in the 2018 Prelim, reckon Tiges would have got a 4peat and this thread would not exist.
 

Pessimistic

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:think:

Hawthorn had a better H&A record in 2013 and 2011 (when we finished 3rd) than Tigers 2018. Not sure how Richmond came close to dominating. I guess comparative to weak opposition.... we did finish the H&A season 4th in 2018.

Yet I'd say our 2012/2014 were even better teams than our 2011/13 teams. 17/5 and massive % in 2014 with a whole raft of guns out for extended periods and Clarko missing 5 weeks too. The 5 losses doesn't suggest we dominated, but as the GF showed, when we were close to full strength we were basically untouchable.

back to back grand final domination…Hawks and tigers… and Melbourne in the 60s
 

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Meteoric Rise

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The more difficult it is to win something, the more amazing doing it consecutively becomes. So in the ‘old’ days each season maybe 3-4 x teams were realistic flag chances going into each season. Now it’s 9-10. So consecutive victories hold more weight in an equalized competition.

It’s why Rod Laver’s 2 x Grand Slams should not be considered in the same ballpark should a player achieve the same thing in 2022. And why the Pies 4-peat from 1927-30 is almost impossible to replicate in an equalized league.

*I am not suggesting it’s easier than 3 in 5-years or 4 in 6-years etc… as I’m not re-starting that debate …. just that achieving something consecutively is held in far greater esteem the harder it is to do.


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DO you question how amazing the achievement of 3 consecutive flags is when 6 of the last 21 Premierships form part of this achievement? 19 of the last 125 Premierships form part of sequences of at least 3 Premierships in succession. It is not what you would call exceptionally rare and never has been.

And when you say "the Pies 4-peat from 1927-30 is almost impossible to replicate in an equalised league, all else being equal….Brisbane needed to level the second half of the 2004 Grand Final to do it…..Hawthorn needed to win the final 1/4 of the 2012 GF by 2 points to do it……Richmond in 2018 needed to convert a dominant Minor Premiership and heavy Premiership favouritism into wins against beatable opponents in the PF and GF to do it…..Geelong were not that much further than that from winning 5 in succession, and for that matter you can apply that to the Hawks as well. That is 4 separate teams in the last 18 years who were within realistic reach of winning 4(or more) Premierships in succession.

What is the evidence that strings of consecutive Premierships are any more difficult to achieve in an equalised league?

From where I sit, really good teams win flags.

Excellent team win 2 flags.

Great teams win 3 flags.

Incredible teams win 4 flags.

And where a team wins 5 flags as the Demons did between 1955 and 1960 they have dominated the competition to an unparalleled extent.

The precise sequence means nothing.
 

Noidnadroj

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DO you question how amazing the achievement of 3 consecutive flags is when 6 of the last 21 Premierships form part of this achievement? 19 of the last 125 Premierships form part of sequences of at least 3 Premierships in succession. It is not what you would call exceptionally rare and never has been.

And when you say "the Pies 4-peat from 1927-30 is almost impossible to replicate in an equalised league, all else being equal….Brisbane needed to level the second half of the 2004 Grand Final to do it…..Hawthorn needed to win the final 1/4 of the 2012 GF by 2 points to do it……Richmond in 2018 needed to convert a dominant Minor Premiership and heavy Premiership favouritism into wins against beatable opponents in the PF and GF to do it…..Geelong were not that much further than that from winning 5 in succession, and for that matter you can apply that to the Hawks as well. That is 4 separate teams in the last 18 years who were within realistic reach of winning 4(or more) Premierships in succession.

What is the evidence that strings of consecutive Premierships are any more difficult to achieve in an equalised league?

From where I sit, really good teams win flags.

Excellent team win 2 flags.

Great teams win 3 flags.

Incredible teams win 4 flags.

And where a team wins 5 flags as the Demons did between 1955 and 1960 they have dominated the competition to an unparalleled extent.

The precise sequence means nothing.

C’mon, you’re better than that. Suggesting Hawks were close to 4 flags because they nearly won 2012 is illogical. It’s like saying you were close to getting the quaddie when you are out in the first leg but get the next 3 - it’s nonsensical. Hawks win 2012 and everything from then on changes.

Same as Tigers 2018. If Tigers win 2018 do they win 2019/20? When Rance goes down Round 1 2019, if the Tigers had just gone back-to-back do they gather themselves and recover from 7-6 at the bye in 2019 to win the flag …. or if they do then do they win a covid affected 2020 after a threepeat….. I very much doubt it.

So the only one to consider is Brisbane, who of course went close. But the league in 2001-2004 was not even close to as equalised as it is now. Brisbane had salary cap concessions and were still benefiting from a heap of zone selections in that era.

The ‘best’ team across an entire season usually does not win the flag, which is why winning them consecutively is an extraordinary achievement.



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BIGHAWK23

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Seems like Richmond fans are the ones who really want justification around being classified with the rest

The other results speak for them selves
 

Meteoric Rise

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C’mon, you’re better than that. Suggesting Hawks were close to 4 flags because they nearly won 2012 is illogical. It’s like saying you were close to getting the quaddie when you are out in the first leg but get the next 3 - it’s nonsensical. Hawks win 2012 and everything from then on changes.

Same as Tigers 2018. If Tigers win 2018 do they win 2019/20? When Rance goes down Round 1 2019, if the Tigers had just gone back-to-back do they gather themselves and recover from 7-6 at the bye in 2019 to win the flag …. or if they do then do they win a covid affected 2020 after a threepeat….. I very much doubt it.

So the only one to consider is Brisbane, who of course went close. But the league in 2001-2004 was not even close to as equalised as it is now. Brisbane had salary cap concessions and were still benefiting from a heap of zone selections in that era.

The ‘best’ team across an entire season usually does not win the flag, which is why winning them consecutively is an extraordinary achievement.



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So let me get this straight. You are saying Hawthorn were less likely to have won the 2013-14-15 Premierships if they had had won either or both of 2011-2012 flags, AND Richmond were less likely to win the 2019-20 flags if they had won in 2018.

So is what you are arguing that the mere act of winning a Premiership makes you less likely to win the next than would otherwise have been the case? And the mere act of winning the first leg of a quaddie makes you less likely to win the other 3 legs of the quaddie than would otherwise have been the case?

That is how your argument seems to read. What evidence do you have that those things are true if that is indeed what you believe? If it is not what you believe then can you help make sense of what you have written for us…

Noidnadroj - "The ‘best’ team across an entire season usually does not win the flag, which is why winning them consecutively is an extraordinary achievement.

Can you explain how this makes it more difficult to win consecutive flags exactly? Isn’t it true that to win a flag in any season you just have to:

a) qualify for finals,
b) win your way into a Preliminary Final, and
c) win both the Preliminary and Grand Finals?

And this is true for teams whether they won the last Premiership or not. Where does "being the best team across an entire season" come into that?
 

Noidnadroj

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So let me get this straight. You are saying Hawthorn were less likely to have won the 2013-14-15 Premierships if they had had won either or both of 2011-2012 flags, AND Richmond were less likely to win the 2019-20 flags if they had won in 2018.

So is what you are arguing that the mere act of winning a Premiership makes you less likely to win the next than would otherwise have been the case? And the mere act of winning the first leg of a quaddie makes you less likely to win the other 3 legs of the quaddie than would otherwise have been the case?

That is how your argument seems to read. What evidence do you have that those things are true if that is indeed what you believe? If it is not what you believe then can you help make sense of what you have written for us…

Noidnadroj - "The ‘best’ team across an entire season usually does not win the flag, which is why winning them consecutively is an extraordinary achievement.

Can you explain how this makes it more difficult to win consecutive flags exactly? Isn’t it true that to win a flag in any season you just have to:

a) qualify for finals,
b) win your way into a Preliminary Final, and
c) win both the Preliminary and Grand Finals?

And this is true for teams whether they won the last Premiership or not. Where does "being the best team across an entire season" come into that?

What I’m saying is in sport you have no idea what would have happened had a different outcome occurred. So saying the Hawks and Tigers were denied 4-peats by a close loss and a surprise loss removes any consideration of what ‘might’ have happened. So I’m saying it’s impossible to predict had the Hawks won 2012 if they’d have won 13-14-15. Why? Their draft pick is different. Their players likely have premiership clauses in their contracts so not winning it saves money and might help them retain a player. Players are more attractive to other clubs had they won a flag (note Richmond losing loads of depth players). Players might retire on the back of a flag but stay as they didn’t win it. The list of unknowns goes on and on.

And sure, if you have a quaddie and you miss the first leg but get the last 3 you were close to getting the quaddie… but in reality you were absolutely nowhere near it. If you have a big LBW shout given not out on the 3rd last ball of the match, then finish the match with 2 wickets, does anyone argue that bowler was close to a hatrick?

And if the ‘best team’ generally wins the flag, then it takes out ‘chance’. So for example, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been clearly the best players and have accordingly won 60 of the last 68 majors or something ridiculous. So winning consecutively is easier in sports where the ‘best player’ more consistently wins as there is less competition for the title.

So in AFL, if you compile the best list and best coaches and have clearly the best team, winning the flag is now very much up to chance… being the best is just a small factor in winning a flag. So in a more equalised competition, the element of ‘chance’ has an even greater influence on the Premier. So in an equalised comp where 8-9 teams can win the flag whilst in the past it was 3-4, then winning consecutive flags is a lot harder for the BEST teams in particular, as they have 7-8 teams competing for the flag, not 2-3.

Anyway … if you need 160 to win a darts tournament with your last 3 darts (60/60/40), and you don’t hit a triple 20 with your first dart, then no matter what happens next you were nowhere near it.




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Meteoric Rise

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What I’m saying is in sport you have no idea what would have happened had a different outcome occurred. So saying the Hawks and Tigers were denied 4-peats by a close loss and a surprise loss removes any consideration of what ‘might’ have happened. So I’m saying it’s impossible to predict had the Hawks won 2012 if they’d have won 13-14-15. Why? Their draft pick is different. Their players likely have premiership clauses in their contracts so not winning it saves money and might help them retain a player. Players are more attractive to other clubs had they won a flag (note Richmond losing loads of depth players). Players might retire on the back of a flag but stay as they didn’t win it. The list of unknowns goes on and on.

And sure, if you have a quaddie and you miss the first leg but get the last 3 you were close to getting the quaddie… but in reality you were absolutely nowhere near it. If you have a big LBW shout given not out on the 3rd last ball of the match, then finish the match with 2 wickets, does anyone argue that bowler was close to a hatrick?

And if the ‘best team’ generally wins the flag, then it takes out ‘chance’. So for example, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been clearly the best players and have accordingly won 60 of the last 68 majors or something ridiculous. So winning consecutively is easier in sports where the ‘best player’ more consistently wins as there is less competition for the title.

So in AFL, if you compile the best list and best coaches and have clearly the best team, winning the flag is now very much up to chance… being the best is just a small factor in winning a flag. So in a more equalised competition, the element of ‘chance’ has an even greater influence on the Premier. So in an equalised comp where 8-9 teams can win the flag whilst in the past it was 3-4, then winning consecutive flags is a lot harder for the BEST teams in particular, as they have 7-8 teams competing for the flag, not 2-3.

Anyway … if you need 160 to win a darts tournament with your last 3 darts (60/60/40), and you don’t hit a triple 20 with your first dart, then no matter what happens next you were nowhere near it.




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Let’s examine some of your statements here.


And sure, if you have a quaddie and you miss the first leg but get the last 3 you were close to getting the quaddie… but in reality you were absolutely nowhere near it. If you have a big LBW shout given not out on the 3rd last ball of the match, then finish the match with 2 wickets, does anyone argue that bowler was close to a hatrick?

Does your quaddie analogy make logical sense? If you win 3 legs in a quaddie and miss the other leg by 1mm, you lost the quaddie by 1mm, it doesn’t matter which leg missed.

Your hat-trick situation is just not properly analogous without further explanation, because if you finished the match with two wickets there may not have been another wicket to take, or if you had the close LBW awarded, then presumably that would have been one of the batsmen you subsequently dismissed, this being the case, at most you have lost the opportunity to bowl for a hat-trick.


And if the ‘best team’ generally wins the flag, then it takes out ‘chance’. So for example, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been clearly the best players and have accordingly won 60 of the last 68 majors or something ridiculous. So winning consecutively is easier in sports where the ‘best player’ more consistently wins as there is less competition for the title.

3 players dominating 17 years of tennis majors does nothing to establish that it is easier to win 3 flags within a 5 year window if the 3 flags are not won consecutively, which is the underlying point being argued here. But to say there is less competition for tennis majors than for AFL Premierships seems a pretty conveniently arrived at position to me.

Perhaps tell us in precisely which seasons you think the “best team” has not won the flag? Given you need to make it to a Preliminary Final and win the PF and GF to win a flag, and winning the flag is the principle aim of all teams in the competition, aren’t any other achievements a team could attain irrelevant to any claims of being the best team? I would say in the last 20 odd years the only non-Premiers with any realistic claims to being the best team would be Saints 09, Hawks 12, Fremantle 13, Port Adelaide 14, and absolutely none of those have irrefutable claims.

So in AFL, if you compile the best list and best coaches and have clearly the best team, winning the flag is now very much up to chance… being the best is just a small factor in winning a flag. So in a more equalised competition, the element of ‘chance’ has an even greater influence on the Premier. So in an equalised comp where 8-9 teams can win the flag whilst in the past it was 3-4, then winning consecutive flags is a lot harder for the BEST teams in particular, as they have 7-8 teams competing for the flag, not 2-3.

Let’s say last year’s Premier Melbourne are still well in their Premiership window, and so it is largely unresolved as to how many Premierships they end up with. It appears to me like a new period where perhaps Melbourne, the Bulldogs and the Lions might be sharing Grand Final appearances and flags for a few seasons, but that is by the bye.

In the 20 seasons prior to 2021, no less than 12 flags were won by the same 4 teams, and if you added the Hawks significantly related 2008 flag to their 2013-15 haul then you could make that 13 of the 20. You could possibly argue some relationship between the Swans 05-12 and Eagles 06-18 flags. It leaves only Bulldogs 2016, Port Adelaide 2004 and Collingwood 2010 as single Premiership clubs in that period.

So 2001-2020 Premierships:

4 Hawthorn(1 GF loss)
3 Geelong(2 GF losses,) Brisbane(1 GF loss), Richmond
2 Swans(3 GF losses,) Eagles(2 GF losses)
1 Collingwood(lost 4 Grand Finals,) Port Adelaide(1 GF loss), and Bulldogs(who have now lost a GF but the year after the 20 year phase being discussed here.)

So the same 9 clubs who shared the 20 available flags also shared 14 runner-up berths. The other 6 runner up positions were taken by:

Essendon 1(who won the previous Premiership,) St Kilda 2, Fremantle, GWS, and Adelaide.

You say 8-9 teams can win a flag each year…..


So let us list Grand Final appearances by club in the 20 year period:

5 Hawks, Cats, Pies
4 Eagles, Swans, Lions
3 Tigers
2 Port, Saints
1 Bombers, Bulldogs, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

And of those with one GF appearance in that 20 season window, Bulldogs and Bombers appeared in a GF one year either side of the window. So there are 3 true single GF appearing clubs in the whole 20 year period, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

There are twice as many clubs who have appeared in either 4 or 5 Grand Finals in that 20 year period.


So we can say the following from this about the period 2001-2020:

- There are more teams who win multiple Premierships within a 5 year window than teams who win a single flag within the 20 year window 4 v 3.

- There is ONE SINGLE team who appeared in a Grand Final without appearing in another Grand Final 5 years either side of that - Fremantle 2013. Collingwood, Adelaide, and GWS are in the running to join them over coming years if they don’t make a Grand Final in coming seasons.

- So more teams are winning 3 flags within 5 seasons(4 teams) than are appearing in a GF without appearing in another one within 5 seasons either side(likely to become 3 or 4 teams.)

- Only 7 teams have won a Premiership in that 20 year period without winning another within 5 seasons either side, Port 04, Swans 05, Eagles 06, Magpies 10, Swans 12, Bulldogs 16, Eagles 18. All 7 played in at least one other Grand Final within a 5 year radius of their flag.

- Only 7 Grand Finals in this period DID NOT include at least one of the participants from the previous Grand Final.

- 15 of the 40 Grand Finalists had appeared in the previous Grand Final.

- 19 of the 40 appeared in one of the two previous Grand Finals.


—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Lots of facts and figures there. But none of them suggest there are in reality 8-9 teams “who can win a flag” each season. This is not some random lottery. The top 3 or 4 teams in the betting before each season are providing far more Premiers than the bottom 14-15 in the betting. Melbourne starts next season knowing if they stay ahead of the Bulldogs and Brisbane, the flag is likely to be theirs. I will be surprised if the flag is won by a team outside that trio. Those two teams - Lions and Bulldogs - start knowing if they can get ahead of Melbourne they will likely win the flag. Teams like St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, possibly Eagles know they need to bridge a big gap on all of those teams to just be in contention. I will be shocked if the Premier comes from outside that 8 teams, but most of those don’t look likely to be in serious contention from where I sit. And it is like that most seasons.
 
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Noidnadroj

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Dec 8, 2020
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Let’s examine some of your statements here.




Does your quaddie analogy make logical sense? If you win 3 legs in a quaddie and miss the other leg by 1mm, you lost the quaddie by 1mm, it doesn’t matter which leg missed.

Your hat-trick situation is just not properly analogous without further explanation, because if you finished the match with two wickets there may not have been another wicket to take, or if you had the close LBW awarded, then presumably that would have been one of the batsmen you subsequently dismissed, this being the case, at most you have lost the opportunity to bowl for a hat-trick.




3 players dominating 17 years of tennis majors does nothing to establish that it is easier to win 3 flags within a 5 year window if the 3 flags are not won consecutively, which is the underlying point being argued here. But to say there is less competition for tennis majors than for AFL Premierships seems a pretty conveniently arrived at position to me.

Perhaps tell us in precisely which seasons you think the “best team” has not won the flag? Given you need to make it to a Preliminary Final and win the PF and GF to win a flag, and winning the flag is the principle aim of all teams in the competition, aren’t any other achievements a team could attain irrelevant to any claims of being the best team? I would say in the last 20 odd years the only non-Premiers with any realistic claims to being the best team would be Saints 09, Hawks 12, Fremantle 13, Port Adelaide 14, and absolutely none of those have irrefutable claims.



Let’s say last year’s Premier Melbourne are still well in their Premiership window, and so it is largely unresolved as to how many Premierships they end up with. It appears to me like a new period where perhaps Melbourne, the Bulldogs and the Lions might be sharing Grand Final appearances and flags for a few seasons, but that is by the bye.

In the 20 seasons prior to 2021, no less than 12 flags were won by the same 4 teams, and if you added the Hawks significantly related 2008 flag to their 2013-15 haul then you could make that 13 of the 20. You could possibly argue some relationship between the Swans 05-12 and Eagles 06-18 flags. It leaves only Bulldogs 2016, Port Adelaide 2004 and Collingwood 2010 as single Premiership clubs in that period.

So 2001-2020 Premierships:

4 Hawthorn(1 GF loss)
3 Geelong(2 GF losses,) Brisbane(1 GF loss), Richmond
2 Swans(3 GF losses,) Eagles(2 GF losses)
1 Collingwood(lost 4 Grand Finals,) Port Adelaide(1 GF loss), and Bulldogs(who have now lost a GF but the year after the 20 year phase being discussed here.)

So the same 9 clubs who shared the 20 available flags also shared 14 runner-up berths. The other 6 runner up positions were taken by:

Essendon 1(who won the previous Premiership,) St Kilda 2, Fremantle, GWS, and Adelaide.

You say 8-9 teams can win a flag each year…..


So let us list Grand Final appearances by club in the 20 year period:

5 Hawks, Cats, Pies
4 Eagles, Swans, Lions
3 Tigers
2 Port, Saints
1 Bombers, Bulldogs, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

And of those with one GF appearance in that 20 season window, Bulldogs and Bombers appeared in a GF one year either side of the window. So there are 3 true single GF appearing clubs in the whole 20 year period, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

There are twice as many clubs who have appeared in either 4 or 5 Grand Finals in that 20 year period.


So we can say the following from this about the period 2001-2020:

- There are more teams who win multiple Premierships within a 5 year window than teams who win a single flag within the 20 year window 4 v 3.

- There is ONE SINGLE team who appeared in a Grand Final without appearing in another Grand Final 5 years either side of that - Fremantle 2013. Collingwood, Adelaide, and GWS are in the running to join them over coming years if they don’t make a Grand Final in coming seasons.

- So more teams are winning 3 flags within 5 seasons(4 teams) than are appearing in a GF without appearing in another one within 5 seasons either side(1 likely to become 3 or 4 teams.)

- Only 7 teams have won a Premiership in that 20 year period without winning another within 5 seasons either side, Port 04, Swans 05, Eagles 06, Magpies 10, Swans 12, Bulldogs 16, Eagles 18. All 7 played in at least one other Grand Final within a 5 year radius of their flag.

- Only 7 Grand Finals in this period DID NOT include at least one of the participants from the previous Grand Final.

- 15 of the 40 Grand Finalists had appeared in the previous Grand Final.

- 19 of the 40 appeared in one of the two previous Grand Finals.


—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Lots of facts and figures there. But none of them suggest there are in reality 8-9 teams “who can win a flag” each season. This is not some random lottery. The top 3 or 4 teams in the betting before each season are providing far more Premiers than the bottom 14-15 in the betting. Melbourne starts next season knowing if they stay ahead of the Bulldogs and Brisbane, the flag is likely to be theirs. I will be surprised if the flag is won by a team outside that trio. Those two teams - Lions and Bulldogs - start knowing if they can get ahead of Melbourne they will likely win the flag. Teams like St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, possibly Eagles know they need to bridge a big gap on all of those teams to just be in contention. I will be shocked if the Premier comes from outside that 8 teams, but most of those don’t look likely to be in serious contention from where I sit. And it is like that most seasons.[

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Last edited:

Noidnadroj

Club Legend
Dec 8, 2020
1,166
2,780
AFL Club
Richmond
Let’s examine some of your statements here.




Does your quaddie analogy make logical sense? If you win 3 legs in a quaddie and miss the other leg by 1mm, you lost the quaddie by 1mm, it doesn’t matter which leg missed.

Your hat-trick situation is just not properly analogous without further explanation, because if you finished the match with two wickets there may not have been another wicket to take, or if you had the close LBW awarded, then presumably that would have been one of the batsmen you subsequently dismissed, this being the case, at most you have lost the opportunity to bowl for a hat-trick.




3 players dominating 17 years of tennis majors does nothing to establish that it is easier to win 3 flags within a 5 year window if the 3 flags are not won consecutively, which is the underlying point being argued here. But to say there is less competition for tennis majors than for AFL Premierships seems a pretty conveniently arrived at position to me.

Perhaps tell us in precisely which seasons you think the “best team” has not won the flag? Given you need to make it to a Preliminary Final and win the PF and GF to win a flag, and winning the flag is the principle aim of all teams in the competition, aren’t any other achievements a team could attain irrelevant to any claims of being the best team? I would say in the last 20 odd years the only non-Premiers with any realistic claims to being the best team would be Saints 09, Hawks 12, Fremantle 13, Port Adelaide 14, and absolutely none of those have irrefutable claims.



Let’s say last year’s Premier Melbourne are still well in their Premiership window, and so it is largely unresolved as to how many Premierships they end up with. It appears to me like a new period where perhaps Melbourne, the Bulldogs and the Lions might be sharing Grand Final appearances and flags for a few seasons, but that is by the bye.

In the 20 seasons prior to 2021, no less than 12 flags were won by the same 4 teams, and if you added the Hawks significantly related 2008 flag to their 2013-15 haul then you could make that 13 of the 20. You could possibly argue some relationship between the Swans 05-12 and Eagles 06-18 flags. It leaves only Bulldogs 2016, Port Adelaide 2004 and Collingwood 2010 as single Premiership clubs in that period.

So 2001-2020 Premierships:

4 Hawthorn(1 GF loss)
3 Geelong(2 GF losses,) Brisbane(1 GF loss), Richmond
2 Swans(3 GF losses,) Eagles(2 GF losses)
1 Collingwood(lost 4 Grand Finals,) Port Adelaide(1 GF loss), and Bulldogs(who have now lost a GF but the year after the 20 year phase being discussed here.)

So the same 9 clubs who shared the 20 available flags also shared 14 runner-up berths. The other 6 runner up positions were taken by:

Essendon 1(who won the previous Premiership,) St Kilda 2, Fremantle, GWS, and Adelaide.

You say 8-9 teams can win a flag each year…..


So let us list Grand Final appearances by club in the 20 year period:

5 Hawks, Cats, Pies
4 Eagles, Swans, Lions
3 Tigers
2 Port, Saints
1 Bombers, Bulldogs, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

And of those with one GF appearance in that 20 season window, Bulldogs and Bombers appeared in a GF one year either side of the window. So there are 3 true single GF appearing clubs in the whole 20 year period, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

There are twice as many clubs who have appeared in either 4 or 5 Grand Finals in that 20 year period.


So we can say the following from this about the period 2001-2020:

- There are more teams who win multiple Premierships within a 5 year window than teams who win a single flag within the 20 year window 4 v 3.

- There is ONE SINGLE team who appeared in a Grand Final without appearing in another Grand Final 5 years either side of that - Fremantle 2013. Collingwood, Adelaide, and GWS are in the running to join them over coming years if they don’t make a Grand Final in coming seasons.

- So more teams are winning 3 flags within 5 seasons(4 teams) than are appearing in a GF without appearing in another one within 5 seasons either side(likely to become 3 or 4 teams.)

- Only 7 teams have won a Premiership in that 20 year period without winning another within 5 seasons either side, Port 04, Swans 05, Eagles 06, Magpies 10, Swans 12, Bulldogs 16, Eagles 18. All 7 played in at least one other Grand Final within a 5 year radius of their flag.

- Only 7 Grand Finals in this period DID NOT include at least one of the participants from the previous Grand Final.

- 15 of the 40 Grand Finalists had appeared in the previous Grand Final.

- 19 of the 40 appeared in one of the two previous Grand Finals.


—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Lots of facts and figures there. But none of them suggest there are in reality 8-9 teams “who can win a flag” each season. This is not some random lottery. The top 3 or 4 teams in the betting before each season are providing far more Premiers than the bottom 14-15 in the betting. Melbourne starts next season knowing if they stay ahead of the Bulldogs and Brisbane, the flag is likely to be theirs. I will be surprised if the flag is won by a team outside that trio. Those two teams - Lions and Bulldogs - start knowing if they can get ahead of Melbourne they will likely win the flag. Teams like St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, possibly Eagles know they need to bridge a big gap on all of those teams to just be in contention. I will be shocked if the Premier comes from outside that 8 teams, but most of those don’t look likely to be in serious contention from where I sit. And it is like that most seasons.

Since what I would regard as genuine equalisation (Post expansion teams pilfering all the draft picks, the introduction of the bidding system, the removal of salary cap concessions, the introduction of soft caps on coaching staff, the upgrading of training facilities for all teams etc…) here is a list of teams who would NOT have been in the top 4-5 flag ‘fancies’ leading into the season in just the last 6-years:

1. Dogs 2016
2. Richmond 2017
3. Eagles 2018
4. Demons 2021

I found some betting odds to back up my theory:

*Dogs were $17 going into the season. (they were $73.89 AFTER the H&A season on Betfair)

*Richmond were $51 after the 2016 season.

*Eagles were $41 after the 2017 season.

*Demons were $26-$41 depending on the bookie.

So we need to wait a little longer for a larger data set, but the flag coming from the top 4-5 fancies has not been backed up by facts in 4 of the last 6 seasons.

This is why I believe winning consecutive flags in an equalised competition is harder, because so many more teams can win it if all the stars align in a given season. So the Demons may see off the Cats, Dogs and Port, but based on recent history the Bombers, Saints or GWS could surprise us all.

*history tells us teams who have not made finals in recent seasons do not win the flag, so I am discounting Freo, Blues, Roos etc….





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VinnieB

Team Captain
Oct 28, 2021
324
484
AFL Club
Collingwood
DO you question how amazing the achievement of 3 consecutive flags is when 6 of the last 21 Premierships form part of this achievement? 19 of the last 125 Premierships form part of sequences of at least 3 Premierships in succession. It is not what you would call exceptionally rare and never has been.

And when you say "the Pies 4-peat from 1927-30 is almost impossible to replicate in an equalised league, all else being equal….Brisbane needed to level the second half of the 2004 Grand Final to do it…..Hawthorn needed to win the final 1/4 of the 2012 GF by 2 points to do it……Richmond in 2018 needed to convert a dominant Minor Premiership and heavy Premiership favouritism into wins against beatable opponents in the PF and GF to do it…..Geelong were not that much further than that from winning 5 in succession, and for that matter you can apply that to the Hawks as well. That is 4 separate teams in the last 18 years who were within realistic reach of winning 4(or more) Premierships in succession.

What is the evidence that strings of consecutive Premierships are any more difficult to achieve in an equalised league?

From where I sit, really good teams win flags.

Excellent team win 2 flags.

Great teams win 3 flags.

Incredible teams win 4 flags.

And where a team wins 5 flags as the Demons did between 1955 and 1960 they have dominated the competition to an unparalleled extent.

The precise sequence means nothing.
Only 1 incredible team
 

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Pessimistic

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Let’s examine some of your statements here.




Does your quaddie analogy make logical sense? If you win 3 legs in a quaddie and miss the other leg by 1mm, you lost the quaddie by 1mm, it doesn’t matter which leg missed.

Your hat-trick situation is just not properly analogous without further explanation, because if you finished the match with two wickets there may not have been another wicket to take, or if you had the close LBW awarded, then presumably that would have been one of the batsmen you subsequently dismissed, this being the case, at most you have lost the opportunity to bowl for a hat-trick.




3 players dominating 17 years of tennis majors does nothing to establish that it is easier to win 3 flags within a 5 year window if the 3 flags are not won consecutively, which is the underlying point being argued here. But to say there is less competition for tennis majors than for AFL Premierships seems a pretty conveniently arrived at position to me.

Perhaps tell us in precisely which seasons you think the “best team” has not won the flag? Given you need to make it to a Preliminary Final and win the PF and GF to win a flag, and winning the flag is the principle aim of all teams in the competition, aren’t any other achievements a team could attain irrelevant to any claims of being the best team? I would say in the last 20 odd years the only non-Premiers with any realistic claims to being the best team would be Saints 09, Hawks 12, Fremantle 13, Port Adelaide 14, and absolutely none of those have irrefutable claims.



Let’s say last year’s Premier Melbourne are still well in their Premiership window, and so it is largely unresolved as to how many Premierships they end up with. It appears to me like a new period where perhaps Melbourne, the Bulldogs and the Lions might be sharing Grand Final appearances and flags for a few seasons, but that is by the bye.

In the 20 seasons prior to 2021, no less than 12 flags were won by the same 4 teams, and if you added the Hawks significantly related 2008 flag to their 2013-15 haul then you could make that 13 of the 20. You could possibly argue some relationship between the Swans 05-12 and Eagles 06-18 flags. It leaves only Bulldogs 2016, Port Adelaide 2004 and Collingwood 2010 as single Premiership clubs in that period.

So 2001-2020 Premierships:

4 Hawthorn(1 GF loss)
3 Geelong(2 GF losses,) Brisbane(1 GF loss), Richmond
2 Swans(3 GF losses,) Eagles(2 GF losses)
1 Collingwood(lost 4 Grand Finals,) Port Adelaide(1 GF loss), and Bulldogs(who have now lost a GF but the year after the 20 year phase being discussed here.)

So the same 9 clubs who shared the 20 available flags also shared 14 runner-up berths. The other 6 runner up positions were taken by:

Essendon 1(who won the previous Premiership,) St Kilda 2, Fremantle, GWS, and Adelaide.

You say 8-9 teams can win a flag each year…..


So let us list Grand Final appearances by club in the 20 year period:

5 Hawks, Cats, Pies
4 Eagles, Swans, Lions
3 Tigers
2 Port, Saints
1 Bombers, Bulldogs, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

And of those with one GF appearance in that 20 season window, Bulldogs and Bombers appeared in a GF one year either side of the window. So there are 3 true single GF appearing clubs in the whole 20 year period, Dockers, Giants, Crows.

There are twice as many clubs who have appeared in either 4 or 5 Grand Finals in that 20 year period.


So we can say the following from this about the period 2001-2020:

- There are more teams who win multiple Premierships within a 5 year window than teams who win a single flag within the 20 year window 4 v 3.

- There is ONE SINGLE team who appeared in a Grand Final without appearing in another Grand Final 5 years either side of that - Fremantle 2013. Collingwood, Adelaide, and GWS are in the running to join them over coming years if they don’t make a Grand Final in coming seasons.

- So more teams are winning 3 flags within 5 seasons(4 teams) than are appearing in a GF without appearing in another one within 5 seasons either side(likely to become 3 or 4 teams.)

- Only 7 teams have won a Premiership in that 20 year period without winning another within 5 seasons either side, Port 04, Swans 05, Eagles 06, Magpies 10, Swans 12, Bulldogs 16, Eagles 18. All 7 played in at least one other Grand Final within a 5 year radius of their flag.

- Only 7 Grand Finals in this period DID NOT include at least one of the participants from the previous Grand Final.

- 15 of the 40 Grand Finalists had appeared in the previous Grand Final.

- 19 of the 40 appeared in one of the two previous Grand Finals.



Funny comparing to 1981-2000:
Flags:
5 Haw (+2GF)
4 Car Ess (+4+2 GF)
2 WCE NM AD (+1+1+0 GF)

GFs
8 Car
7 Haw
6 Ess
4 Gee
3 WC NM
2 Coll Ad Mel Rich
1 Syd StK

so six teams in one or two GF, same as 2001-20, but one more team in 2001-20 appeared in over 3 GFs.

all in all the equalisation seems to have produced more 'equality' among top teams now. but still 4 teams without a GF in 2 decades 2020, (GCS Mel Carl NM) in 2000 (Port Fre Lions WB) at least none of these teams are the same
Actually 2020 is 3.5 clubs as GCS only there for roughly half. 2000 is probably similar as port and freo only joined mid nineties
But equalisation? not so much
 
Last edited:

Meteoric Rise

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Feb 4, 2008
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Richmond
Since what I would regard as genuine equalisation (Post expansion teams pilfering all the draft picks, the introduction of the bidding system, the removal of salary cap concessions, the introduction of soft caps on coaching staff, the upgrading of training facilities for all teams etc…) here is a list of teams who would NOT have been in the top 4-5 flag ‘fancies’ leading into the season in just the last 6-years:

1. Dogs 2016
2. Richmond 2017
3. Eagles 2018
4. Demons 2021

I found some betting odds to back up my theory:

*Dogs were $17 going into the season. (they were $73.89 AFTER the H&A season on Betfair)

*Richmond were $51 after the 2016 season.

*Eagles were $41 after the 2017 season.

*Demons were $26-$41 depending on the bookie.

So we need to wait a little longer for a larger data set, but the flag coming from the top 4-5 fancies has not been backed up by facts in 4 of the last 6 seasons.

This is why I believe winning consecutive flags in an equalised competition is harder, because so many more teams can win it if all the stars align in a given season. So the Demons may see off the Cats, Dogs and Port, but based on recent history the Bombers, Saints or GWS could surprise us all.

*history tells us teams who have not made finals in recent seasons do not win the flag, so I am discounting Freo, Blues, Roos etc….





Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

What you have typed here makes much better sense to me. Though there are a few things I will note about what you have presented.

First though, we shouldn’t miss the fact that you are now essentially placing placing both the Hawks and Lions 3 consecutive flags outside the “genuine equalisation” era. Which makes a nonsense of your earlier claim that their 3 consecutive flags were achieved against the difficulties of equalisation. Or am I mis-remembering that you made that claim?

And just further to the point of the value of flags within the equalisation era versus flags outside the equalisation era….why didn’t one club or very few clubs just become rich and totally dominate the history of the competition? In turn I think Fitzroy, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Eagles, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane(/Fitzroy) Geelong and Hawthorn and you might even say South Melbourne and Sydney(/South Melbourne,) had a go at it as well - apologies as I have no doubt missed some - but they all dominated the league at different times in turn in the period you are now defining as not equalised or not truly equalised, whilst at least 7 other clubs and mostly 11 other clubs and at times up to 17 other clubs languished whilst trying to keep up.

All those clubs who dominated in the pre-equalisation era for periods had to come up with a way of out-competing their opponents from pretty much level terms to start with. They had to raise money, build facilities, make good appointments, recruit good players, teach them well, not get ahead of themselves and so on and so on, and they had to do these things better than the clubs they were competing with. Equalisation hasn’t made it harder to win anything at all. The addition of extra competitors may have done, but not equalisation. No club has EVER totally dominated the VFL/AFL for a period that lasts longer than the prime of a single team, about 6 years maximum. And this remains the case and will be the case into the future while the current structure exists.

Regarding your list of betting odds, I acknowledge that as a valid point. There has been a sudden glut of teams winning who the market did not expect to contend immediately after the previous season. The point I would make here is that immediately post season the markets are not in possession of a full set of factors to assess the price correctly. Lists change of course after this point, often to an extent that radically alters the prospects of the club winning the flag the following season.

If you look at the conduct of these clubs in the off season prior to their “shock” Premierships, it gives clues that suggest they knew they were in contention:

2015 - Bulldogs brought in a free agent, Suckling, traded away a future 3rd round pick, and used a second round pick on a mature player, Marcus Adams. These were all perhaps clues they had reason to believe they were going to contend. They also selected Jed Adcock and I think one other mature player in the rookie draft.

2017 - Tigers. Out went pick 7, 46 and a future second round pick, and in came 3 mature footballers entering their prime, Prestia, Caddy, Nankervis.

2018 - Eagles. They traded out their future first, future 3rd and brought in mature player Ah Chee through a trade and drafted mature player Liam Ryan with pick 26, and picked up a few 19yo’s with rookie and low picks.

2020 - Melbourne traded out no less than 5 future picks! Though one was from another trade. They traded out their own 1st 2nd and 3rd round 2021 picks, in some of the greatest acts of trading burglary ever seen. They absolutely KNEW they were going to contend. They also picked up mature play Majak Daw in the pre-season.

So all of these clubs expected to do better than the market was predicting because they all traded out future picks, in the case of Eagles, Tigers and Demons, significant picks, and in the Demons case, all their picks!

Teams are sitting on information that people outside the club just are not aware of. Hardwick, who had coached his teams to 15 wins and 5th place after the home and away season twice, stated with complete confidence after the 2016 season that the list was in the best shape it had ever been, which meant he expected to win more games than 15, and whatever goes along with that come finals.

I know for a fact Melbourne were super confident in advance and due to this I tragically backed them to win the 2020 flag, a year where they were messed around more than any other team by COVID and just missed the 8.

Eagles and Dogs I had no strong inkling but when you look back now there might have been little clues there. In any event their Premierships were by more narrow margins. So while they all fooled the betting markets, I think it is pretty clear these clubs were expecting to be strong contenders and in the case of Richmond and Melbourne at least, and you can probably include Eagles as well, they expected to be very strong contenders.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,400
6,877
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What you have typed here makes much better sense to me. Though there are a few things I will note about what you have presented.

First though, we shouldn’t miss the fact that you are now essentially placing placing both the Hawks and Lions 3 consecutive flags outside the “genuine equalisation” era. Which makes a nonsense of your earlier claim that their 3 consecutive flags were achieved against the difficulties of equalisation. Or am I mis-remembering that you made that claim?

And just further to the point of the value of flags within the equalisation era versus flags outside the equalisation era….why didn’t one club or very few clubs just become rich and totally dominate the history of the competition? In turn I think Fitzroy, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Eagles, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane(/Fitzroy) Geelong and Hawthorn and you might even say South Melbourne and Sydney(/South Melbourne,) had a go at it as well - apologies as I have no doubt missed some - but they all dominated the league at different times in turn in the period you are now defining as not equalised or not truly equalised, whilst at least 7 other clubs and mostly 11 other clubs and at times up to 17 other clubs languished whilst trying to keep up.

All those clubs who dominated in the pre-equalisation era for periods had to come up with a way of out-competing their opponents from pretty much level terms to start with. They had to raise money, build facilities, make good appointments, recruit good players, teach them well, not get ahead of themselves and so on and so on, and they had to do these things better than the clubs they were competing with. Equalisation hasn’t made it harder to win anything at all. The addition of extra competitors may have done, but not equalisation. No club has EVER totally dominated the VFL/AFL for a period that lasts longer than the prime of a single team, about 6 years maximum. And this remains the case and will be the case into the future while the current structure exists.

Regarding your list of betting odds, I acknowledge that as a valid point. There has been a sudden glut of teams winning who the market did not expect to contend immediately after the previous season. The point I would make here is that immediately post season the markets are not in possession of a full set of factors to assess the price correctly. Lists change of course after this point, often to an extent that radically alters the prospects of the club winning the flag the following season.

If you look at the conduct of these clubs in the off season prior to their “shock” Premierships, it gives clues that suggest they knew they were in contention:

2015 - Bulldogs brought in a free agent, Suckling, traded away a future 3rd round pick, and used a second round pick on a mature player, Marcus Adams. These were all perhaps clues they had reason to believe they were going to contend. They also selected Jed Adcock and I think one other mature player in the rookie draft.

2017 - Tigers. Out went pick 7, 46 and a future second round pick, and in came 3 mature footballers entering their prime, Prestia, Caddy, Nankervis.

2018 - Eagles. They traded out their future first, future 3rd and brought in mature player Ah Chee through a trade and drafted mature player Liam Ryan with pick 26, and picked up a few 19yo’s with rookie and low picks.

2020 - Melbourne traded out no less than 5 future picks! Though one was from another trade. They traded out their own 1st 2nd and 3rd round 2021 picks, in some of the greatest acts of trading burglary ever seen. They absolutely KNEW they were going to contend. They also picked up mature play Majak Daw in the pre-season.

So all of these clubs expected to do better than the market was predicting because they all traded out future picks, in the case of Eagles, Tigers and Demons, significant picks, and in the Demons case, all their picks!

Teams are sitting on information that people outside the club just are not aware of. Hardwick, who had coached his teams to 15 wins and 5th place after the home and away season twice, stated with complete confidence after the 2016 season that the list was in the best shape it had ever been, which meant he expected to win more games than 15, and whatever goes along with that come finals.

I know for a fact Melbourne were super confident in advance and due to this I tragically backed them to win the 2020 flag, a year where they were messed around more than any other team by COVID and just missed the 8.

Eagles and Dogs I had no strong inkling but when you look back now there might have been little clues there. In any event their Premierships were by more narrow margins. So while they all fooled the betting markets, I think it is pretty clear these clubs were expecting to be strong contenders and in the case of Richmond and Melbourne at least, and you can probably include Eagles as well, they expected to be very strong contenders.
Based on the clues given by a club's willingness to trade away future picks to benefit the now, who do we jump on for the 2022 flag?
 

Goggin Our Best

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May 23, 2011
5,893
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Well if you look again, two have attained the level of “incredible” team by my reckoning. Only one of those has surpassed it. 😁

This thread is getting bogged down

But talking about incredible - and seeing you mentioned that you are a Professional Punter - you bet for a living - then scroll onto the Geelong board - its page 3 - " Geel Punting related posts " - the last page - and expand my post - re my GF bets - and i even looked up the 14 day weather forecast because i wanted a dry track

And big Tom McDonald - he was never going to miss - it went through dead centre

Those GF bets of mine mate - thats what you call " Educated money " - hah hah hah
 

Noidnadroj

Club Legend
Dec 8, 2020
1,166
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What you have typed here makes much better sense to me. Though there are a few things I will note about what you have presented.

First though, we shouldn’t miss the fact that you are now essentially placing placing both the Hawks and Lions 3 consecutive flags outside the “genuine equalisation” era. Which makes a nonsense of your earlier claim that their 3 consecutive flags were achieved against the difficulties of equalisation. Or am I mis-remembering that you made that claim?

And just further to the point of the value of flags within the equalisation era versus flags outside the equalisation era….why didn’t one club or very few clubs just become rich and totally dominate the history of the competition? In turn I think Fitzroy, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Eagles, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane(/Fitzroy) Geelong and Hawthorn and you might even say South Melbourne and Sydney(/South Melbourne,) had a go at it as well - apologies as I have no doubt missed some - but they all dominated the league at different times in turn in the period you are now defining as not equalised or not truly equalised, whilst at least 7 other clubs and mostly 11 other clubs and at times up to 17 other clubs languished whilst trying to keep up.

All those clubs who dominated in the pre-equalisation era for periods had to come up with a way of out-competing their opponents from pretty much level terms to start with. They had to raise money, build facilities, make good appointments, recruit good players, teach them well, not get ahead of themselves and so on and so on, and they had to do these things better than the clubs they were competing with. Equalisation hasn’t made it harder to win anything at all. The addition of extra competitors may have done, but not equalisation. No club has EVER totally dominated the VFL/AFL for a period that lasts longer than the prime of a single team, about 6 years maximum. And this remains the case and will be the case into the future while the current structure exists.

Regarding your list of betting odds, I acknowledge that as a valid point. There has been a sudden glut of teams winning who the market did not expect to contend immediately after the previous season. The point I would make here is that immediately post season the markets are not in possession of a full set of factors to assess the price correctly. Lists change of course after this point, often to an extent that radically alters the prospects of the club winning the flag the following season.

If you look at the conduct of these clubs in the off season prior to their “shock” Premierships, it gives clues that suggest they knew they were in contention:

2015 - Bulldogs brought in a free agent, Suckling, traded away a future 3rd round pick, and used a second round pick on a mature player, Marcus Adams. These were all perhaps clues they had reason to believe they were going to contend. They also selected Jed Adcock and I think one other mature player in the rookie draft.

2017 - Tigers. Out went pick 7, 46 and a future second round pick, and in came 3 mature footballers entering their prime, Prestia, Caddy, Nankervis.

2018 - Eagles. They traded out their future first, future 3rd and brought in mature player Ah Chee through a trade and drafted mature player Liam Ryan with pick 26, and picked up a few 19yo’s with rookie and low picks.

2020 - Melbourne traded out no less than 5 future picks! Though one was from another trade. They traded out their own 1st 2nd and 3rd round 2021 picks, in some of the greatest acts of trading burglary ever seen. They absolutely KNEW they were going to contend. They also picked up mature play Majak Daw in the pre-season.

So all of these clubs expected to do better than the market was predicting because they all traded out future picks, in the case of Eagles, Tigers and Demons, significant picks, and in the Demons case, all their picks!

Teams are sitting on information that people outside the club just are not aware of. Hardwick, who had coached his teams to 15 wins and 5th place after the home and away season twice, stated with complete confidence after the 2016 season that the list was in the best shape it had ever been, which meant he expected to win more games than 15, and whatever goes along with that come finals.

I know for a fact Melbourne were super confident in advance and due to this I tragically backed them to win the 2020 flag, a year where they were messed around more than any other team by COVID and just missed the 8.

Eagles and Dogs I had no strong inkling but when you look back now there might have been little clues there. In any event their Premierships were by more narrow margins. So while they all fooled the betting markets, I think it is pretty clear these clubs were expecting to be strong contenders and in the case of Richmond and Melbourne at least, and you can probably include Eagles as well, they expected to be very strong contenders.

I was more arguing consecutive flags are going to get harder the more ‘equal’ the competition becomes.

My assessment is that there have been reasons for dominant periods from a Variety of teams - zones, brown paper bags, war, money, facilities, professionalism/fitness before it was in vogue (Hafey). Then we got the mid-1970’s and 1980’s and teams were able to buy Premierships - Roos, Blues.

Then the Hawks dominated through putting together an outstanding playing list that was under little threat from salary cap pressure, other teams taking all the good youngsters, free agency etc… and most teams just couldn’t bridge the gap.

Then the draft came in the late 1980’s and would have taken a decade to really start having an impact. Some interstate teams also came in during the late 1980’s and 1990’s and took all their talent.

So Brisbane of 2001-2003 was part of a competition ‘more’ equal than any other time prior, but certainly not like now as they had salary cap concessions.

Then the Hawks no doubt benefited from the expansion teams coming in and making it harder for lower teams to rebuild and contend. But by that time there had been priority picks handed
out, far greater drafting expertise etc…so it was more ‘equal’ again than 2001-2003.

But in the last 5-6 years the equalisation has gone up another notch from any other era. Taking
out the player retention and cultural issues at GC, I’d struggle to pinpoint any area where any of the 17 other teams could hand on heart argue they are starting each year behind the 8-ball for any reason other than poor performance by their own club.

That’s never been the case up until they introduced the soft cap on off-field spending and upgraded all teams facilities.

So whilst I don’t expect the rank outsiders to continue winning as often as they have the last 6 seasons, I do honestly believe the ‘margins’ between winning and losing have never been slimmer. And thus the margins to winning flags are slimmer than ever, which leads to more contenders, more upsets and more surprise Premiers.


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Pessimistic

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What you have typed here makes much better sense to me. Though there are a few things I will note about what you have presented.

First though, we shouldn’t miss the fact that you are now essentially placing placing both the Hawks and Lions 3 consecutive flags outside the “genuine equalisation” era. Which makes a nonsense of your earlier claim that their 3 consecutive flags were achieved against the difficulties of equalisation. Or am I mis-remembering that you made that claim?

And just further to the point of the value of flags within the equalisation era versus flags outside the equalisation era….why didn’t one club or very few clubs just become rich and totally dominate the history of the competition? In turn I think Fitzroy, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Eagles, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane(/Fitzroy) Geelong and Hawthorn and you might even say South Melbourne and Sydney(/South Melbourne,) had a go at it as well - apologies as I have no doubt missed some - but they all dominated the league at different times in turn in the period you are now defining as not equalised or not truly equalised, whilst at least 7 other clubs and mostly 11 other clubs and at times up to 17 other clubs languished whilst trying to keep up.

All those clubs who dominated in the pre-equalisation era for periods had to come up with a way of out-competing their opponents from pretty much level terms to start with. They had to raise money, build facilities, make good appointments, recruit good players, teach them well, not get ahead of themselves and so on and so on, and they had to do these things better than the clubs they were competing with. Equalisation hasn’t made it harder to win anything at all. The addition of extra competitors may have done, but not equalisation. No club has EVER totally dominated the VFL/AFL for a period that lasts longer than the prime of a single team, about 6 years maximum. And this remains the case and will be the case into the future while the current structure exists.

Regarding your list of betting odds, I acknowledge that as a valid point. There has been a sudden glut of teams winning who the market did not expect to contend immediately after the previous season. The point I would make here is that immediately post season the markets are not in possession of a full set of factors to assess the price correctly. Lists change of course after this point, often to an extent that radically alters the prospects of the club winning the flag the following season.

If you look at the conduct of these clubs in the off season prior to their “shock” Premierships, it gives clues that suggest they knew they were in contention:

2015 - Bulldogs brought in a free agent, Suckling, traded away a future 3rd round pick, and used a second round pick on a mature player, Marcus Adams. These were all perhaps clues they had reason to believe they were going to contend. They also selected Jed Adcock and I think one other mature player in the rookie draft.

2017 - Tigers. Out went pick 7, 46 and a future second round pick, and in came 3 mature footballers entering their prime, Prestia, Caddy, Nankervis.

2018 - Eagles. They traded out their future first, future 3rd and brought in mature player Ah Chee through a trade and drafted mature player Liam Ryan with pick 26, and picked up a few 19yo’s with rookie and low picks.

2020 - Melbourne traded out no less than 5 future picks! Though one was from another trade. They traded out their own 1st 2nd and 3rd round 2021 picks, in some of the greatest acts of trading burglary ever seen. They absolutely KNEW they were going to contend. They also picked up mature play Majak Daw in the pre-season.

So all of these clubs expected to do better than the market was predicting because they all traded out future picks, in the case of Eagles, Tigers and Demons, significant picks, and in the Demons case, all their picks!

Teams are sitting on information that people outside the club just are not aware of. Hardwick, who had coached his teams to 15 wins and 5th place after the home and away season twice, stated with complete confidence after the 2016 season that the list was in the best shape it had ever been, which meant he expected to win more games than 15, and whatever goes along with that come finals.

I know for a fact Melbourne were super confident in advance and due to this I tragically backed them to win the 2020 flag, a year where they were messed around more than any other team by COVID and just missed the 8.

Eagles and Dogs I had no strong inkling but when you look back now there might have been little clues there. In any event their Premierships were by more narrow margins. So while they all fooled the betting markets, I think it is pretty clear these clubs were expecting to be strong contenders and in the case of Richmond and Melbourne at least, and you can probably include Eagles as well, they expected to be very strong contenders.

in 2009-10 when hawks started trading for mature players they said at the time they needed to take a different tack as they knew so many early picks would go to expansion teams. They carried on with this in 2016-17 but have been easing off on this since
Arguably the players the hawks recruited 2009-2015 were available to all other teams as hawks did not have any early pick advantage
 
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Meteoric Rise

Premiership Player
Feb 4, 2008
3,890
10,793
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Based on the clues given by a club's willingness to trade away future picks to benefit the now, who do we jump on for the 2022 flag?

You want me to say Collingwood, just because they traded out their own 2022 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. And, you know, with most clubs that might constitute “a sign” that “they know.” But not the club who traded out their 2021 first round pick because they mistakingly believed they might finish in the top six. teen. 😂😂. So it is a big negatori to the Magpies. They don’t know sh!t. 😁

Who else traded out significant 2022 picks tied to their own finishing position?

Port Adelaide shipped out their own 2nd, 3rd, 4th round picks, so they are backing themselves. Brought in Skinner as a delisted FA and Finlayson, and Dumont as a rookie, obviously mature players. But most of the potential draft pick value upside from trading out their picks sits with the other parties to the trades, so I am not sure this fits our picture. Port are $9.0 4th favourite for the flag at Sportsbet anyway. Do they have sufficient quality in their prime age 23-29 year olds to win a flag?

29 Lycett
28 Clurey
27 Wines, Aliir squared and Mayes
26 Amon, Dumont, Fantasia, Byrne-Jones
25 Finlayson, Burton, Bonner
24 Houston, Skinner, Pepper
23 Drew, Marshall, Farrell, Hayes

There are 10-12 best 22 there. Maybe a couple too few.

Where is the improvement coming from? Drew, Rozee, Duursma, Butters, Marshall, possibly Georgiades and Sinn. So there are a few there who could realistically take a leap to being able to cut it in big games against the best teams.

Where is the potential deterioration coming from?

34yo Gray
33yo Boak
31yo Dixon
31yo Jonas
31yo Motlop

These players all at significant risk of going backwards.

The key youngsters might still be 1-2 years away from carrying this team and the players who have been carrying the team haven’t been quite good enough. They have some players in their prime years who I don’t think are great in the big games, Aliir, Byrne-Jones, maybe a couple of others.

I doubt Finlayson, Skinner and Dumont make any real difference to that.

They clearly fancy a high finishing position, but I think I’d want better than $9.0 to back them.

Demons have unloaded their 2022 first rounder. A humble little loveable club called the Tigers have cashed in their 2022 3rd and 4th round picks. 😎

The Demons have the ideal list profile and have continued to back themselves by trading away their own first rounder, they have an impeccable form line and at around 4.40 net of commission on Betfair or $4.20 with the books they look the best value to me.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,400
6,877
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
You want me to say Collingwood, just because they traded out their own 2022 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. And, you know, with most clubs that might constitute “a sign” that “they know.” But not the club who traded out their 2021 first round pick because they mistakingly believed they might finish in the top six. teen. 😂😂. So it is a big negatori to the Magpies. They don’t know sh!t. 😁

Who else traded out significant 2022 picks tied to their own finishing position?

Port Adelaide shipped out their own 2nd, 3rd, 4th round picks, so they are backing themselves. Brought in Skinner as a delisted FA and Finlayson, and Dumont as a rookie, obviously mature players. But most of the potential draft pick value upside from trading out their picks sits with the other parties to the trades, so I am not sure this fits our picture. Port are $9.0 4th favourite for the flag at Sportsbet anyway. Do they have sufficient quality in their prime age 23-29 year olds to win a flag?

29 Lycett
28 Clurey
27 Wines, Aliir squared and Mayes
26 Amon, Dumont, Fantasia, Byrne-Jones
25 Finlayson, Burton, Bonner
24 Houston, Skinner, Pepper
23 Drew, Marshall, Farrell, Hayes

There are 10-12 best 22 there. Maybe a couple too few.

Where is the improvement coming from? Drew, Rozee, Duursma, Butters, Marshall, possibly Georgiades and Sinn. So there are a few there who could realistically take a leap to being able to cut it in big games against the best teams.

Where is the potential deterioration coming from?

34yo Gray
33yo Boak
31yo Dixon
31yo Jonas
31yo Motlop

These players all at significant risk of going backwards.

The key youngsters might still be 1-2 years away from carrying this team and the players who have been carrying the team haven’t been quite good enough. They have some players in their prime years who I don’t think are great in the big games, Aliir, Byrne-Jones, maybe a couple of others.

I doubt Finlayson, Skinner and Dumont make any real difference to that.

They clearly fancy a high finishing position, but I think I’d want better than $9.0 to back them.

Demons have unloaded their 2022 first rounder. A humble little loveable club called the Tigers have cashed in their 2022 3rd and 4th round picks. 😎

The Demons have the ideal list profile and have continued to back themselves by trading away their own first rounder, they have an impeccable form line and at around 4.40 net of commission on Betfair or $4.20 with the books they look the best value to me.
Collingwood and Port.

Thanks, I'll load up 😁

I wonder what guernsey Port will be allowed to wear in the Grand Final?
 

Meteoric Rise

Premiership Player
Feb 4, 2008
3,890
10,793
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Collingwood and Port.

Thanks, I'll load up 😁

I wonder what guernsey Port will be allowed to wear in the Grand Final?

No reputable bookie would take your bet on Collingwood. Which means they all would. But my suggestion is have them in a double with the world ending at Richmond Grand Final winning margin odds, because if the Pies win the flag this year I will be blowing up the planet. 🧐
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,400
6,877
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
In all seriousness (because my previous post wasn't 😁), I really like Port for the flag.

I've been all over them the last couple of years and they were unlucky in the 2020 Prelim against your mob and had a shocker in last year's Prelim.

Just reckon they have the right balance and are primed in 2022, with Butters, Rozee, Duursma and Georgiades to take big strides this year and be the difference.

Yout observation about trading for the now has just reinforced it.

Overs at $9. Get on whilst you can...
 

Trav 20

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 5, 2004
9,428
7,358
16.4 100 - 1.1 7
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Dees
In all seriousness (because my previous post wasn't 😁), I really like Port for the flag.

I've been all over them the last couple of years and they were unlucky in the 2020 Prelim against your mob and had a shocker in last year's Prelim.

Just reckon they have the right balance and are primed in 2022, with Butters, Rozee, Duursma and Georgiades to take big strides this year and be the difference.

Yout observation about trading for the now has just reinforced it.

Overs at $9. Get on whilst you can...
Other than Wines, their best players are over 30 and their next exciting crop are probably too young to take them to the promised land.

Those would be my concerns.
 

HairyO

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 13, 2015
28,391
30,724
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Serious question - where does the Richmond dynasty sit if they win a 4th in 2022 or 2023?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Changes things massively if 2022. Probably then similar to Hawthorn. 2023 a bit behind Hawthorn.

I dont imagine it happens though.