Hall of Famer
- May 5, 2016
- AFL Club
What I’m saying is in sport you have no idea what would have happened had a different outcome occurred. So saying the Hawks and Tigers were denied 4-peats by a close loss and a surprise loss removes any consideration of what ‘might’ have happened. So I’m saying it’s impossible to predict had the Hawks won 2012 if they’d have won 13-14-15. Why? Their draft pick is different. Their players likely have premiership clauses in their contracts so not winning it saves money and might help them retain a player. Players are more attractive to other clubs had they won a flag (note Richmond losing loads of depth players). Players might retire on the back of a flag but stay as they didn’t win it. The list of unknowns goes on and on.
And sure, if you have a quaddie and you miss the first leg but get the last 3 you were close to getting the quaddie… but in reality you were absolutely nowhere near it. If you have a big LBW shout given not out on the 3rd last ball of the match, then finish the match with 2 wickets, does anyone argue that bowler was close to a hatrick?
And if the ‘best team’ generally wins the flag, then it takes out ‘chance’. So for example, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been clearly the best players and have accordingly won 60 of the last 68 majors or something ridiculous. So winning consecutively is easier in sports where the ‘best player’ more consistently wins as there is less competition for the title.
So in AFL, if you compile the best list and best coaches and have clearly the best team, winning the flag is now very much up to chance… being the best is just a small factor in winning a flag. So in a more equalised competition, the element of ‘chance’ has an even greater influence on the Premier. So in an equalised comp where 8-9 teams can win the flag whilst in the past it was 3-4, then winning consecutive flags is a lot harder for the BEST teams in particular, as they have 7-8 teams competing for the flag, not 2-3.
Anyway … if you need 160 to win a darts tournament with your last 3 darts (60/60/40), and you don’t hit a triple 20 with your first dart, then no matter what happens next you were nowhere near it.
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Actually if you need to hit 160 and you hit bullseye instead of triple 20 you are still every chance of making it.