Grey Swallow the Logical horse to beat

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Thread starter #1
while me and im sure many of you had a rough day last saturday, Tawqeet whilst being overlooked, in good ol hind sight should have been a logical choice having performed at the distance and having good form.

With that in mind im guiding my betting not by gut feel but by pure logic as to who should be there abouts this saturday. Despite the spell grey swallow has had, you would have to conceed that 5 starts fresh from 5 wins is pretty hard to go past in the company he has raced in. Racing style should suit the valley as he will be amongst them coming to the turn and we know he can obviously run the trip.bookies apparently think he will be running backwards as they pass the school but i dont understand this logic at all, obviously they no more then me but based on logic i dont get it. Aqua de more is also a certainty to at least be in the race.

He screams out to me as the logical choice aswell as lad of the manor who is a valley specialist. I reckon seth is on the money about miss finland and i cant whole heartedly trust the two favs over this trip.

FOO is a sentimental fav but surely his best is behind him.

my logic best bet for the day is to box up
1) Grey Swallow
2) Aqua de More
3) Lad of the Manor
4) Pompei ruler

Seems ridiculous to exclude el segundo and racing to win but distant query on racing to win and form query on the big el.

Keen to hear any other logic and feel free to scrutinise my selections, im no expert and dont claim to be just a mug punter looking to win back my measly youth allowance package.
 

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sethlad

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#2
I just cant have Aqua D'amore,The C Cup is the worst C Plate guide.
Apart from Northerly,cant remember a horse backing up & running well.

If Grey Swallow isnt going backward at the school,be afraid.

seth
 

PLSC

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#3
the rain will suit also

im just worried it could be a bit short for him and with the inside barrier it doesnt help

if he's in the top 5 at the turn watch out
 

Syrah

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#5
sethlad said:
I just cant have Aqua D'amore,The C Cup is the worst C Plate guide.
Apart from Northerly,cant remember a horse backing up & running well.

If Grey Swallow isnt going backward at the school,be afraid.

seth
Agree about CC form. I got the form trends below from the Cox Plate website. On these trends Casual Pass would be the one to beat.

  • Fourteen of the last twenty-seven winners have been last start winners
  • Ten of the last Twenty-seven winners have raced in the Yalumba Stakes
  • Only THREE of the last Twenty five winners have raced within 12 days of the Plate
  • Average Number of runs from a spell - 4.18
  • Average number of Kms travelled going into race - 6.95kms
 
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