Greyhound Thread

[Poizun]

In hindsight you can say that. But look back 3 starts at Bulli, came from the 6, with speed everywhere. Raced smartly, jumped to the inside after the bend, avoided the carnage and railed up and won easily.

I don't think you can write off a dog that has only had 3 starts prior.


Good to have some others that can contribute here though.

I actually thought after I posted it someone will bring up his wide wins at Bulli. I was ultra impressed with both wins to be honest, however, he pulverised an ordinary bunch to keep it in perspective. The key I believe for this dog is room early as the first 15-20 metres he walked out, but you could see him take off once he got warmed up, however the problem was there were dogs all around him and hence the carnage happened. When he won from Box 1 at Richmond he had a slow wide runner in the 2 and gifted him about 3 box lengths to work with to the first marker and that was the end of that.

I am sure he will probably win from wide boxes in the future at some stage, but early in his career to be taking $1.40 from box 6 in a field which did have a fair bit of early dash all around, i just personally thought that was insane. I actually took him to run 2nd in exactas and tri's etc.. I did my cash too

 

[sblack]

I actually thought after I posted it someone will bring up his wide wins at Bulli. I was ultra impressed with both wins to be honest, however, he pulverised an ordinary bunch to keep it in perspective. The key I believe for this dog is room early as the first 15-20 metres he walked out, but you could see him take off once he got warmed up, however the problem was there were dogs all around him and hence the carnage happened. When he won from Box 1 at Richmond he had a slow wide runner in the 2 and gifted him about 3 box lengths to work with to the first marker and that was the end of that.

I am sure he will probably win from wide boxes in the future at some stage, but early in his career to be taking $1.40 from box 6 in a field which did have a fair bit of early dash all around, i just personally thought that was insane. I actually took him to run 2nd in exactas and tri's etc.. I did my cash too

Agree. I wasn't advocating him being the $1.40, more just pointing out how you couldn't really write him off.

I was surprised when I checked the odds he was that short ... but I got too swayed by the odds and followed the crowd when I didn't plan to take him like I did with the standout exacta.

 

[Poizun]

COMPLETE LISTING

Horsham


Lay - Jamison Bale (Race 10, No.3) - Has talent, but has no clue about racing. He is as green as he was from Day 1. Box draw has not helped him and with explosive speed outside him, he will get too far back. Watch him rattling at the end into 3rd spot.

Best - Mrs Hyde (Race 5, No.3) - Not only do I think this is the best bet on the card, it looks like huge value in what the market describes as an open race. The clear favourite will be Condor Bale from the rails but his box manners leave something to be desired and this ultra strong runner should love the big long straight and prove far too strong.

Value - My Little Joyce (Race 8, No.8) - This will likely be huge odds ($20+). Improved dramatically last week when in a smaller field and battled well behind a smart one. Drawn a very good box and with loads of speed in the inside, I can see some carnage and this could possibly skip around em and run a massive run at odds.

Ipswich

Lay - Yorklea Sunset (Race 8, No.7) - Will most likely be sent around a $2.30 commodity, but lacks the finish to hold out this field. Showed dazzling turn of foot early last week to swoop out of the first turn from box 8 and clear out but even a 5 length lead down the back didnt stop it capitulating up the straight. Drawn box 7, so similiar conditions in the heat, however with loads of early speed in this race and the fact this dog cant come off the pace to win, I just cant see him taking out the final. I wouldnt be taking anything less than $6-7 if I were to back this dog. Good luck getting those sort of odds.

Best - Ima Design (Race 7, No.1) - Dog has sickeningly good stats at Ipswich. Tries hard every single race it goes around. Drawn box 1. Beat Sunlander last start. With that being said, I must say I was ultra impressed by Sunlander's efforts OFF the pace last week to rail ridiculously well after bombing the start but running out of puff up the home straight. With that being said, Ima Design has drawn perfect, with a slow wide runner in box 2, the cherry will be an absoulte gift to it. Whatever it beats it, wins. Put it clearly on top for the card.

Value - Sideways (Race 5, No.2) - I am not sure how the market will view this greyhound. He wont be short, I know that much though. With Rattle and Hum resuming from a spell from the red, and Carrick Flyer winning its past two starts impressively from the pink, it will have to be each way odds. Was not disgraced last start behind IMA DESIGN, slow beginners all around and drawn close to the rail. Stick with this as an excellent each way bet.


Stay tuned for tonights tips.

Tonights Tips!!

Sale

Lay - Granada (Race 10, No.8) - This makes me nervous labling this the lay and I must say I am not advising this with HUGE confidence. However, it is my opinion that this dog is a non-tryer. If he lands on the bunny, he can run time. If he gets hampered in running in any way what-so-ever, he throws the towel in. This is not a hard race to win, esp when you can break 25 secs, but the only other speed in the race comes from 6 and 7 and I dont think I would JUMP in at what will probably be $1.50. Id defintly be going wide in exotics and RD's and hoping the favourite does not come out running.

Best - Ima Nuisance (Race 7, No.8) - This again is labelled with not 100% confidence. However, this dog is boxed to absolute perfection. Its form at the track is second to none in this field. The last 40 metres will be telling but I would be highly surprised if this misses a place from his draw and he is by far the best each way bet of the night (depending on tote lol) in what will guaranteed to be a hard night for punters.

Value - Spin The Wheels (Race 10, No.7) - Well, this is going to by my bet of the night, in that I think it will start ridiculous odds due to Granada in the race and in a field which lacks real depth outside of that dog, represents huge value and as a punter, that is all you are after. Forget its recent form, has had no luck at all. Has a good PB, drawn the right side of the track and look to bob into the money.

Sale, is without a doubt the hardest race meeting on the card and I struggled to even come up with the above. If you can find a way to make money there tonight, let me know haha

Lismore

Lay - Trey of Light (Race 2, No.6) - Declared a "certainty beaten" by the commentator last week. Well I dont know what he is smoking cuz it certainly was not that impressive. Did not have much luck, but did not create much either. Still a young dog and has a lot to learn. Pits up verse some more seasoned dogs again tonight, and his numeric form and constant backing will see him backed to near favourite again, but since I can pick out 6dogs that can roll him.....LAY!

El Toreador (Race 10, No.2) - Now comes the acid test as they say. 3 wins from 4 starts all in fairly "smart" fashion. He now steps out verse some dogs that can run some time as well as begin well. Similiar scenario to above, there are just so many dogs can run time to beat him and early too. He went 30.31 at best basically solo trialling. I cant see him getting everything his own way tonight and that I believe will spell the end of him.

Best - Spirited Girl (Race 5, No.4) - I was tempted to put MYSTIC RUMBLE as my best, but when for a bit more value in this selection. This dog has had next to no luck lately, and even tho its PB is not awe-spiring, I think this dog can find the top in this field and if it does, nothing will get past. Drops in class is also another massive plus for this dog as well as the fact it should be an each way price again!!!

Value - She rose High (Race 9, No.1) - MY O MY, did this stand out to me. No luck its last 2 starts and prior to that finished 2nd behind a very smart type in scintilatting time at Casino. Its quoted at 10.00 in the hotdog form and if this dog starts anywhere near that I will be taking a huge slice of it. The query is one win from 20 at the track but does have 6 more minor placings. Propsective does not have sizzling early pace and this dog can show pace, so from Box 1, I just wanna load up on it at odds *fingers crossed*

Gosford

Lay - Elite Blue Size (Race 6, No.1) - I will probably get critized for this, but I personally think this dog has absouletly no chance in this line up. He is a front runner sprinter who won last week due to dogs jamming up behind him and still only had a length to spare. Yes he has drawn the box again, but tonight he has to hold out the likes of Super Laurie, Take the Kitty and Lochinvar Milano, not to mention Galba Jack is probably the quickest of the outisde division. The Reg Kay factor, 9 from 15 wins and box 1 will ensure he will start one of the favourites but I would stay away.

Best - Forty Twenty - (Race 7, No.7) - Enough said. This wins with 3 legs in the air. Has lengths and lengths on this field. Can lead all the way or can come off the pace. Does not matter. This will just win. Anchor in everything. Possibly exotics punters do the chop chop with Laura's Legacy as she should be storming home into a place.

Value - Low Self Esteem (Race 9, No.3) - Great dog. Top run last
week when it oddly did not find itself in the lead. Of the inside 4 boxes it should easily be the quickest to the first turn. If it gets in front clearly to the first turn it should just win. Market has this race extremly open so expect some juicy each way odds the white.

If you wanna bet on Townsville dogs, go buy a lottery ticket
Happy Punting!!

 

[tazlgnd]

i like happy vin at horsham

solidly placed, should win the jump and hold the lead

very good value

 

[Poizun]

i like happy vin at horsham

solidly placed, should win the jump and hold the lead

very good value

Still trying to work out how a 4.60 shot from the 5 box into a 7 dollar shot from the red pays a running dbl of 121 dollars..and then when i check NSW it paid even more!!

 

[tazlgnd]

i like livio bale in the next

has early speed and could lead all the way

 

[tazlgnd]

Mandurah (Quaddie (NSW)) 2,4,6,8:1,4,5:1,2:3,5,6 @ 0.3472

 

[rizzo]

That dog made my night... I dont understand what all that meant, why is he suspended?

http://www.thewatchdog.com.au/VideoPlayer.aspx?Name=72607&Title=Shepparton+4+Jan+2010+Race+10

Video here.

 

[Schmucta]

Because it is a joke of a dog that would rather attack other dogs instead of running the race. I tried to bite my tongue after the race, thinking I might look like a knob. Facts are that this dog only got a little of what it deserved. Should have been DQed and banned for longer then 12 months.

I may sound biased because it attacked the dog I part own, but this should never happen at a race track. The trainer should be ashamed with the way the dog conducted itself. It cost us the race and we are very lucky that Buzz did not seriously injure himself. Fingers crossed he has not lost any confidence. The poor bloke can't take a trick.

Must have had priors, dogs don't get 12 months first up for fighting.

 

[Redonkulous]

Best - Forty Twenty - (Race 7, No.7) - Enough said. This wins with 3 legs in the air. Has lengths and lengths on this field. Can lead all the way or can come off the pace. Does not matter. This will just win. Anchor in everything. Possibly exotics punters do the chop chop with Laura's Legacy as she should be storming home into a place.

Good call sir, easy as you like. Respectable exacta as well

 

[Redonkulous]

Oh man, tailed you with Spin the Wheels as well. Great pick and huge value! Shame it just fell over the line.

 

[tazlgnd]

alot of value for imported avenger in the next at mandurah, boxed well for the first time in ages and has the ability

 

[tazlgnd]

missed the place, 4th
two pot screamer is good value in the next not sure the 8 should be as short as it is

 

[tazlgnd]

daintree hunk at 15-1 at sale nsw tab

amazing value if it leads it will win

 

[tazlgnd]

two pot screamer gets up at $4.10

 

[tazlgnd]

mandurah (quaddie (nsw)) 2,4,6,8:1,4,5:1,2:3,5,6 @ 0.3472

3 transact 315.90

5 fawn freeway 632.40

6 lady laura 186.60

 

[tazlgnd]

ha i woulda done a short and long quaddie for the quaddie club and both woulda got up.

always the way

 

[tazlgnd]

1-2-8 trifecta mandurah

 

[Poizun]

3 transact 315.90

5 fawn freeway 632.40

6 lady laura 186.60

Quaddie payed well...Same at sale.... 4.00 x 1.80 x 5.00 x 2.50 = $163

 

[Poizun]

Oh man, tailed you with Spin the Wheels as well. Great pick and huge value! Shame it just fell over the line.

So sick..... Cost me around 700 dollars in profits.. Outlayed 150 on the race got back 250 and if Spin the Wheels held on (nailed on the line by a nose), i collect easily over 1k from each way and multi bets... AHHHHHHH

 

[Poizun]

I must say I was surprised and impressed by Yorklea Sunsets win in the final at Ipswich, granted box 4 took a step right and destroyed the 3 other fancies in box 1,2,3 but thats racing and it ran some slick time too (30.80).. I like it when dogs prove me wrong And ditto for Elite Blue Size..

ANYONE WATCH THE WOY WOY FINAL? i missed it but just saw results.... regardless, kudos to it for winning becuz that was def its hardest test to date and it came through well.. I am assuming it lead all the way untouched? If it didnt, ill be even more surprised

Granada vs Spin the wheels was draining..so close yet so far...Spirited Girl was a top win.

What I suggest from punters who may look at my tips each day, is to back all the best bets each way but double the place. i.e. 5 the win 10 the place..etc . I will be keeping a running total based on a 50/100 unit investment on each race to keep track. From VALUE runners, do what you like with them, each-way, throw them in multis. whatever you like but they usually run a honest race at odds as shown last night. My little Joyce was huge odds and if it wasnt for Nelly Bale might of prevailed with the battle that was up front.

Lays was ugly last night but a few smart dogs showed me up but we will see how we go over the next few weeks. These arent necessarily dogs I would leave out of multiples but usually I wouldnt touch them to win if your a "on-a-nose" punter unless i was getting ridiculous overs.

Time to see todays racing Already glanced at Meadows and looks a tuff program

 

[Poizun]

Good call sir, easy as you like. Respectable exacta as well

Cleaned up this race with the 2 scratchings I didnt see yesterday. Just took Forty Twenty straight into Laura's Legacy..then in tri's and F4's that again with Dis Low Kate and Forgetful Lucy to run 3rd(and 3rd and 4th). Still paid 11.40 which is around 5-1 on your money.

 

[Poizun]

alot of value for imported avenger in the next at mandurah, boxed well for the first time in ages and has the ability

I went to back it, but on times in recent starts I couldnt put it over the check so i backed tauranga... Unfortunately the 1 and 2 took themselves both out of the race when they should of run 1-2.

 

[Poizun]

Running total on Best Bets as of Jan 6th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections.

Outlay - $750
Return - $769

Profit - $19 (+2.5%)

When worrying about profit, the most important element is the %.

Mrs Hyde killed me by running 4th. Also didnt see the run, will review on grv later...


Jan 6th Tips

Angle Park

Lay - Can't find any shorter priced dogs that I think will get rolled in this small meeting, so I have included 2 very very good "value runners"

Best - Nerini Bale (Race 2, No.2) - Purely for lack of any form of dog in the race, and its first up from Victoria. This will probably be short, but this will get the money barring falling over. If you can pick something outside this dog to win and it gets up, you are good!

Value - Brazilian (Race 6, No.2) - According to the watchdog form, this is the worst rated dog, and also the longest priced chance at $21. If you get double figures for this dog load up. 4 of its 7 wins have come from box 2, it is dropping severly in class, has a billygoat beginner in box 1, and I cannot wait to see what price it starts. Fantastic each-way prospect.

Digits - (Race 7, No.6) - Be careful with this race. Pays 2 dividends only. Look this dog doesnt begin all that well but does have some sort of a motor. It has a vacant box next to it, has drawn wide (all 3 wins have come from box 8), has had no luck of late whatsoever and drops in class so an improved race at easily each-way odds would not surprise me.

The Meadows

Lay - Gwen Tennyson (Race 10, No.6) - Horrible form but is dropping ridiculously in class but still rate it no chance. Needs to find the lead early and even then is severly suspect with anything over 500m. Watchdog has it at $3.40 and there top pick. If anyone thinks this dog can run a place, I will gladly give you $2.50.

Best - Sparkling Molly (Race 3, No.2) - Has been screaming for this trip. Young dog which finishes extremely powerfully. Crawled all over their backs last start when should of run a place for sure. This field lacks any talent and whatever beats this dog, wins the race.

Value - Adalita (Race 10, No.2) - Dog has loads and loads of talent. Yet to showcase it consistently.Breath-taking 23.98 maiden win at Warragul which I was lucky to see live and has always been in the market in its starts. Form is tailing off a little bit but did record around 30.20 at the Meadows 3 starts ago and if it runs upto that, it wins. Can be tardy at boxrise and this is why it will start a backable price ($12 watchdog), if you can get 6 or 7 dollars that is great value.

 

[Poizun]

Best - Nerini Bale (Race 2, No.2) - Purely for lack of any form of dog in the race, and its first up from Victoria. This will probably be short, but this will get the money barring falling over. If you can pick something outside this dog to win and it gets up, you are good!

Was stuck with a client while this race was run.. I was utter shocked at 2.70 it paid for the win.... Was the worst field of the day and this dog had respectable victorian form!!! ah!!!