Greyhound Thread

[Oaksnaf]

Ballarat Race 6 ~ Given the box draws for these dogs and their outright speed, I can see this being a struggle to the first bend. Sure #8 should lead, but the unkown #7 is underneath it and can reel of some sizzling sectionals. Insides get the best chance at Warrnambool.

8 ARVOS JEMMA $3.16
7 PEDROS REALITY $3.90
1 GLEN ABBEY FRANK $5.94
3 STORM DAMAGED $9.06
2 THINK ALIKE $17.04
9 NASSER BALE $23.37
4 WORLD OF STORM $35.62
5 BOMBASTIC WIGGLE $54.30

 

[Poizun]

Ballarat Race 6 ~ Given the box draws for these dogs and their outright speed, I can see this being a struggle to the first bend. Sure #8 should lead, but the unkown #7 is underneath it and can reel of some sizzling sectionals. Insides get the best chance at Warrnambool.

8 ARVOS JEMMA $3.16
7 PEDROS REALITY $3.90
1 GLEN ABBEY FRANK $5.94
3 STORM DAMAGED $9.06
2 THINK ALIKE $17.04
9 NASSER BALE $23.37
4 WORLD OF STORM $35.62
5 BOMBASTIC WIGGLE $54.30

In a race like this, dont be surprised to see an out of form talent like Nasser Bale pop up at huge odds. Ill be having a sprinkly on it.

 

[KarlHungus]

Ok, I see. Interesting. Had the damn 5 to come second and third in my tri at Warnambool. Can't believe it got up.

 

[latrell]

r7 Bulli the trainer is very confident on lagoon cassidy

r8 the gold plate final you can get tab fixed odds. I like goodesy but om shanti is ridiculously over the odds at 35

 

[Oaksnaf]

Warrnambool Race 8 - Lynlea Zac will be red hot from the inside, but I don't think he can be the one who will lead. Even from Box 1.

5 COSMIC PLANET $3.21
1 LYNLEA ZAC $4.41
8 BORN LOUIE $7.47
7 JIBBA JABBA $9.22
4 TIM SALE $12.65
3 COSMIC CHIEF $19.27
2 COSMIC PHAROAH $21.42
6 OUR RHINO MAN $23.79

321 Quinella

 

[tazlgnd]

write to mike is huge overs, I dont like the dog from box 1 can never hold a lead

 

[tazlgnd]

maybe it can 7,8 quinella ipswich

 

[win1soon]

buckle up shaz in the next

 

[Poizun]

Was not having the best night in the world, until the Bulli Gold Cup Final..Can you believe the TAB put GOODSEY UP $3.20 FIXED ODDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nearly had a heart attack. I jumped straight on board, it then came into $3, then came into $2.90, then came into $2.80 and I didnt check last 45 seconds.... The dog should of been even money at best. Unbelievable what the TAB opened him up as. Honestly, thought it was a mistake.

 

[Oaksnaf]

I don't understand the Watchdogs comments for Sandown Race 3 tonight. Kurnai King has Box 4. And the comments read:

"[FONT=ArialNarrow,Bold][FONT=ArialNarrow,Bold]Will need to overcome this awkward draw"


[/FONT][/FONT]Yet the box stats for 715m Sandown:

BOX 1 2 3 [B]4[/B] 5 6 7 8 TOTAL RECORD SET BY SET ON 
SAN515 146 151 101 95 87 73 77 102 832 29.38 BOND 10/11/2005 
[B]SAN715[/B] 13 12 13[B] 20 [/B]9 9 9 12 97 41.80 TOTAL DENIAL 28/03/2002

It is the best box BY FAR with 20 wins from 97 races. Next best Box 1 with 13.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Bendigo Race 3 ~ An interesting race. #7 has all the right form and the right early speed to lead this field. From there he should almost be unstoppable. #3 has a nice record at this T/D and races consistently. More importantly normally begins just behind the pace. #1 gets the best box in the race and has won here before in a good time for this class. Inconsistent yes, but should get clear run. #2 has run slow times, but is better suited than most. #6 is irradic and more than likely will find trouble. Has the ability to win though, and thats the scary part for me and my exotics. Willing to risk.... even though there is no pace on the inside. If your having a SAVER bet. I would say Rover 6/1,2,3,7 exacta. IF there is value.

7 CROMLAH CRACKER $2.21
3 MAD CAPER $6.35
1 MILD SHANNON $9.67
2 VINNYS BOY $10.75
6 TRAILBLAZER $11.94
8 WHERES XENA $18.20
4 MODERN COLA $34.25
5 SEA ROBBER $38.06

221 - Exacta

 

[Poizun]

I don't understand the Watchdogs comments for Sandown Race 3 tonight. Kurnai King has Box 4. And the comments read:

"[FONT=ArialNarrow,Bold][FONT=ArialNarrow,Bold]Will need to overcome this awkward draw"[/FONT]


[/FONT]Yet the box stats for 715m Sandown:

BOX 1 2 3 [B]4[/B] 5 6 7 8 TOTAL RECORD SET BY SET ON 
SAN515 146 151 101 95 87 73 77 102 832 29.38 BOND 10/11/2005 
[B]SAN715[/B] 13 12 13[B] 20 [/B]9 9 9 12 97 41.80 TOTAL DENIAL 28/03/2002

It is the best box BY FAR with 20 wins from 97 races. Next best Box 1 with 13.

I guess there is a few ways you can look at it. In my opinion, if you were to race 1,000 times, I doubt box 4 would be leading overall. This could also be me guessing wrong.

Current stats would allude to an advantage to Box 4, but as a rule Box 4 at ANY track is a disadvantage over the majority of other boxes, and I guess the watchdog is just using generic comments.

Alot of times it mentions dogs that say, will be in the firing line the whole way? or needs to lead clearly to win? when in fact these dogs are slow begins who come storming home.

Some silly people who write comments for watchdog.

 

[Poizun]

Bendigo Race 3 ~ An interesting race. #7 has all the right form and the right early speed to lead this field. From there he should almost be unstoppable. #3 has a nice record at this T/D and races consistently. More importantly normally begins just behind the pace. #1 gets the best box in the race and has won here before in a good time for this class. Inconsistent yes, but should get clear run. #2 has run slow times, but is better suited than most. #6 is irradic and more than likely will find trouble. Has the ability to win though, and thats the scary part for me and my exotics. Willing to risk.... even though there is no pace on the inside. If your having a SAVER bet. I would say Rover 6/1,2,3,7 exacta. IF there is value.

7 CROMLAH CRACKER $2.21
3 MAD CAPER $6.35
1 MILD SHANNON $9.67
2 VINNYS BOY $10.75
6 TRAILBLAZER $11.94
8 WHERES XENA $18.20
4 MODERN COLA $34.25
5 SEA ROBBER $38.06

221 - Exacta

Yes, an interesting race with my top 4 picks being identical to you. However, I personally would have Mad Caper as a clear top pick for form behind chasers like Pure Macs, Soupy's Mem and Pure Buddy Show. Any of these in this race they would be odds-on guaranteed.

Form outside of Cromlah's very good Ballarat win is dicy... Thats why I would be cautious as well as the fact that win came from an inside draw...

Time will tell..

 

[Oaksnaf]

I wouldn't say that the Watchdog are silly as they know more than all greyhound posters on this forum combined. I just find it strange that you would ignore the Box stats - which are exceptionally important.

But you are right. I guess they are using a generic comment.

The problem is though with box stats. That after nearly 700 races. Box 4 has won more times than 5,6,7,8 at The Meadows. It is a KEEN RAILERS track. And even though it is one of the middle boxes, you are better off being in Box 4 than being out-wide at The Meadows. And if you have more speed than your insides, but less than the outsides, then you are still in a better position.

Box 4 being the worst box.... is true for many cases. But not all. And you need to understand that.

---As for Mad Caper - he is about 3lengths off winning first splits. That is enough scope for there to be plenty in front by the bend. But I agree. The winner should come from them two.

Bendigo Race 4 ~ Who leads this wins. And Prince Of Time should lead from the middle box. Charging late, but just missing will be Coulta Sky. Although has lead and won before. Which is a risk we are willing to take. Because if Coulta Sky leads this field, will smash them. #1 gets the best box by a country mile and will avoid all the carnage early. #6 is going to be running on late, while the recently qualified maidens get a chance to sneak in for a place. But other than that, this a clear race between 2. And the TAB market will reflect that. Expect them both to be under $3.50.

4 PRINCE OF TIME $2.66
8 COULTA SKY $4.05
1 SHIRAZ MASTER $9.40
6 SHES BOLTED $11.61
3 MUGGO $14.33
7 BLACKBERRY ROSE $19.66
2 TRUST ME KEZZA $29.97
5 GOOD LUCK CHUCK $33.30

266 Exacta

 

[Poizun]

---As for Mad Caper - he is about 3lengths off winning first splits. That is enough scope for there to be plenty in front by the bend. But I agree. The winner should come from them two.

Based on what exactly if you do not mind me asking. You seem to know quite abit about the dogs too and splits/boxes. But taking a look at some split times and comparing them, I think this should actually come close to leading them at the first marker.

If you are using the watchdogs guide and not current split sectionals and allow for young dogs improving then it can be slightly misleading.

Mad Caper recorded a 6.72 split and 6.83 split in its first two starts which definetly would see it lagging in most races at Bendigo. However, his last two 1st splits have seen him run 6.63 and 6.56 (from box.4).

Now to put it into comparison. Look at a harder race on the card where Krebs is racing. According to the watchdog he is the best beginner in the race, not that I look at that too much as I generally know how most dogs begin. However, Krebs who is a proven G5 performer in harder company and is generally very reliable to the first marker over this trip at Bendigo and elsewhere has recorded 6.60,6.71,6.53 and 6.52 in its last 4 runs over the trip.

To me, that does not seem right.

 

[Oaksnaf]

This is the beauty in opinion. Two people see different things when looking at the same thing.

Mad Caper ----- last start at Shep over the 450m. First split was 6.85. Basically with no interferance from Box 5. C4 from the stewards. I don't agree with.... but thats my opinion.

On that given day the winning splits for 450m were:

6.69 - 25.80 G5
6.61 - 25.63 G5
6.59 - 25.51 Mixed 4/5
6.74 - 26.00 G5 ---Mad Capers Race

At Bendigo the same story, his splits are slow when comparing to the fastest splits on that day. And normally when the winner runs a FAST TIME - Pure Macs 24.19. The place-getters do aswell. And Mad Capers 24.64 is near the best he can do. I feel.


The Watchdog average speed charts arn't fair. Because their average speed isn't measured at the same point for each track. So depending on which track, your average speed might be better/worse than what it actually is.

I find it is best to try and find the BEST SUITED animal in each race. Because everyone can find the BEST GREYHOUND in each race. Hence why so many runners are under-value.

 

[Oaksnaf]

As for KREBS. Compare the Win S/R of each dog in this race against his:

#1 6/27 @22%
#2 11/61 @18%
#3 4/23 @17%
#4 3/13 @23%
#5 6/32 @ 19%
#6 10/48 @21%
#7 7/40 @17.5%
#8 4/50 @8% <<<< KREBS

BY FAR the worst winning greyhound in that race.

Yet.

If we were to look at their place stats (EXCLUDES WINS)

#1 10/27 @ 37%
#2 16/61 @ 26%
#3 9/23 @ 39%
#4 6/13 @ 46%
#5 6/32 @ 19%
#6 12/48 @ 25%
#7 12/40 @ 30%
#8 20/50 @ 40% <<<< KREBS

He is the 2nd best placegetter in this field.

In other words. Krebs can't win. But he sure can place.


It is these type of greyhounds that you have to be weary of when placing exotics. Because they never win. But they always bomb you out of exotics.

You can get into a lot more detail regarding these simple stats. But overall, Krebs is a placegetter not a winner.


And I hope that I am right. Because I don't have any bets with Krebs winning.

 

[Poizun]

Interesting points.

I personally think 24.60 will win the race Mad Caper is in. I would be highly surprised to see a dog get under that. If I was a bookie, I would install sub 24.60 time - $3.20 and over 24.60 - $1.35

On the topic of Krebs and his performances. I was referring more to his beginning ability as opposed to his overall results as I wanted a comparison to Mad Caper at Bendigo since you commented that you anticipated he would be spotting the leaders 3 lengths by the first marker with the possiblity of a few dogs being able to cross him early . That means they would have to go 6.38 based on MC last start.. T1hats airborne for this class..

But yes, will be a good race, and regardless of how it goes down, thats the beauty about selections and anticipating what will pay the best value in the race and no one can ever really be judged on the results of one race as thats not what value is about.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Ah that comment might have been a little bit airy fairy. It says he has been 3lengths of winning splits. Which is meant to mean, that the average winning split at the track/distances he has raced at is 3lengths quicker than his.

This field won't go 6.38. They'll be 6.52-6.55 or something.

Which is still plenty of room for Mad Caper to get crossed.

Your right. It is so much fun predicting the race. And it's nice to see the race run to plan. We could both be totally wrong on this race. But is the 100s of other races that really tell the picture.

I like seeing other greyhound punters win. Especially when they put in effort like yourself.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Bendigo Race 7 ~ Demonstrate pings and wins. Hard to see anything else getting close.

3 DEMONSTRATE $2.06
7 CAMOS PIRATE $7.28
1 BARELEN CURVES $11.09
2 BOOTMAKER $13.70
5 BIG COOL MAGIC $15.22
4 MY WORD $16.91
6 RAILWAY SHOTZ $18.79
8 OURBOY WALLOP $28.63

206 - Exacta. And Trifecta. But go wider for 3rd

 

[rizzo]

In There going around again in Race 10 tonight at Bendigo. Pretty confident! Looking forward to seeing what you say Oaks!

 

[Poizun]

Bendigo Race 7 ~ Demonstrate pings and wins. Hard to see anything else getting close.

3 DEMONSTRATE $2.06
7 CAMOS PIRATE $7.28
1 BARELEN CURVES $11.09
2 BOOTMAKER $13.70
5 BIG COOL MAGIC $15.22
4 MY WORD $16.91
6 RAILWAY SHOTZ $18.79
8 OURBOY WALLOP $28.63

206 - Exacta. And Trifecta. But go wider for 3rd

He is the logical top pick for lack of anything really classy in the race. He is definetly a query at the distance, but he in theory should set up a big enough lead to negate that. Would have Railway Shotz (24.50Q win and a was taking ground off Go Wild Felp at Horsham which makes you believe the 545m will suit perfectly) much higher than 7th in line..Outside of that rest looks pretty good.

 

[Poizun]

Race 10 Bendigo -

Little Miss Hot, In there, Major Nova, Dixie Dew - My top 4....top 2 should battle, but just a small leaning towards Little Miss Hot with its early toe.

Good race

 

[Oaksnaf]

I thought you were pretty unlucky at Shep last time out Rizzo.

Bendigo Race 10 ~ Race in three here. But we can't see them finishing too far in front. That is why this race will be a quinella. Because we know that we can see the Top 2. But we are unsure of which order. And since we cant see them finished 3-4l ahead of the rest of the field, then there is more chance of an upset. I have #3 on top because I can see it leading here, but #5 IN THERE is the other who can lead and finishes off nicely. Hence why I have 0.25l seperating them

3 LITTLE MUMMA HOT $3.35
5 IN THERE $3.72
4 MAJOR NOVA $5.67
1 STEALTHY FLASH $13.16
2 BULLBAR TOOTS $16.25
7 ROYAL DRILL $18.06
8 DIXIE DEW $27.52
10 HUNTER JOHN $37.75

335 Quinella

 

[Oaksnaf]

Definatly looks like a quinella race now Poizun with our Top 3 selections being exactly the same. And we also see the race the same way. Good sign for $$$. Lets hope the VALUE is there too.

I don't like betting on maiden races with first starters in them. But I don't mind trying to study the maiden races with some form behind them. It's good to know whether you are actualy hopeless at maidens, or can make profit from them.

Normally those who profit from maidens are those "IN THE KNOW". Unfortunately I am not IN THE KNOW.

But I know who I like.....

Bendigo Race 1 #2-5-1-8. Have taken an Exacta. But lets not get into this habit of betting on races we don't properly analyse/know. As that can lead down a dangerous path.