Greyhound Thread

[rizzo]

Looking forward to seeing your thoughts on race 8 at shep oaks

 

[Oaksnaf]

Shep Race 8 ~Pace comes from 2,4,6 early who should kick clear of the field. 8 swoops late.

2 TOMMY DEEDS $2.92
6 BOZZCO $3.61
8 HEY KOBYBOYN $8.38
4 CMON NOSEY $9.31
1 IN THERE $17.52
7 ACES DELIGHT $21.62
3 FLOOD HERO $32.96
5 TEXAS BANDID $50.23

292-Exacta


Early speed

#1 >>>>>>>>
#2 >>>>>>>>>>>>
#3 >>>>>
#4 >>>>>>>>>>
#5 >>>
#6 >>>>>>>>
#7 >>>>>>
#8 >>>>>

This see's the 2 or 4 possibly leading, with the 6 just missing out on crossing the field. IN THERE is likely to posi up nicely, but as the field comes across will find some squeeze on the rail as heads to middle.

Middle

#1 >>>>>>
#2 >>>>>>>>>>
#3 >>>>>>>>
#4 >>>>>>
#5 >>>>>>>
#6 >>>>>>>>
#7 >>>>
#8 >>>>>>>>>>>

This part will be crucial to #8 HEY KOBYBOYN. Needs a clear run as is the only runner who is likely to gain ground on the leaders.


Final

#1 >>>>>>>
#2 >>>>>>>>
#3 >>>>>>>
#4 >>>>>
#5 >>>>>>>>
#6 >>>>>>
#7 >>>>
#8 >>>>>>>>>

Pretty even finishing speed in my opinion from a few runners in this race.


#5 is likely to find trouble along with #3 and #1 mid-race and final stages which see's them weaker.

 

[rizzo]

Thanks mate. I think we really need to jump strong to get clear of any trouble. Buzz has a habit of finding trouble, so here's hoping he gets a nice clear run to get us into the final

 

[cleveland]

Can i have $17 to 1

He is a lot better than his form suggests. Has had two runs back from a spell and looked like winning first run back before getting its head bitten off and last time at Bendigo got 12 lengths worth of checks and lost by 8. I agree he stepping up in class but ain't a 17 to 1 chance.

Anyway got two more in tonight Samba Express in race 10 (don't give him much chance off the 7) and Cyan Lorian who is a big chance of winning at Gawler.

Cheers
Rob

 

[Oaksnaf]

Well done!

 

[cleveland]

Thanks mate

As i said the dog shouldn't be those odds but you can kind of expect it with his current form. Nice little chaser who has had a heap of problems

 

[rizzo]

Thanks mate

As i said the dog shouldn't be those odds but you can kind of expect it with his current form. Nice little chaser who has had a heap of problems

Haha $20-1 loving life

 

[cleveland]

Hopefully Cyan lorian does the right thing over in Adelaide tonight

 

[rizzo]

Hopefully Cyan lorian does the right thing over in Adelaide tonight

What time mate?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Horsham Race 2

8 FIGHTER FUEL $2.62
6 FRUITMAN $4.93
1 SURF THE DREAM $6.08
3 BOOMA SAMMY $14.14
2 COME THE BOUNCE $15.71
4 CHI AMY $19.39
7 ARAPAHO BOY $26.60
10 BLACK BEGOSH $36.49


262-Exacta

Horsham Race 3 ~ #4 to lead, #5 FINALLY gets a clear run in the race. Outwide, 7 can cross most of this field. But 6 is the danger. #1 gets the BEST BOX BY FAR and should avoid all that carnage out-wide. Will be massive odds on the tote I presume.

4 MAJOR MORRIS $2.53
5 MELALUKA LAD $3.86
7 IDOIA BALE $8.97
1 PERFECT OCTANE $13.68
6 EMILY ALLEN $15.20
2 HEZA GAMBLE $20.85
8 BUDDY BANDIT $31.77
3 PRAIRIE PRINCESS $59.78

253-Exacta

Horsham Race 4 ~ 3,5 show early speed. #5 is stronger dog and suited by Horsham. #2 gets dream run on the inside, and the one at value to spice up exotics.

5 MIA TIGER $3.51
2 DYNA CARLO $5.94
3 SPELL BOOK $6.60
1 SOUTHPAW CHIC $7.34
7 CELTIC COCO $9.06
6 SISCO JET $11.18
8 LIDDELL $25.97
4 PURE CREAM $48.87


351-QUIN

Horsham Race 5 ~ Tight between the Top 5 selections in this race.

3 COOL TIMES $3.23
1 JERSEY BALE $4.43
5 TIME TO SPEED $5.47
2 NAPOLEON TIGER $7.50
4 GRACEFUL AMY $11.43
8 LANKAN FLASH $26.56
9 CAMOS BUSTER $61.70
10 ARAPAHO GIRL $143.32

323-QUIN

 

[Oaksnaf]

Horsham Race 6 ~ Plenty of early pace in this race. Looking at Taipan as is best suited in this race for mine from Box 7. And is a strong dog.

7 TAIPAN BALE $3.35
1 INVICTUS SHIRAZ $5.10
4 CHAINSAW $7.77
8 SUPREME LEVEL $8.64
6 BELENA HAZE $10.66
2 XMAN $16.25
3 DYNA ROSE $18.06
5 TALAR BALE $20.06

QUIN 335

Horsham Race 7 ~ Can see the #8 being stuck wide and wide and wide and wide..... not suited out-there and won't cross #6

3 GENERAL VIEW $2.70
2 HUDSON BALE $3.33
1 QUICK EZE $9.55
6 DYNA GINA $14.56
8 MINER ARGUMENT $16.18
5 NITRO PEDRO $22.19
4 LUCY WILDS $33.83
7 IDELLE BALE $51.56


270-Exacta

If I am wrong..... then #8 can win! ARGH

There is a HUGE advantage in the red box in this race. Absolutely huge. 0/3 T/D Remo Rubik. Gets worst box for this race. Stuck wide early, wants to cut, but bangs into 4 who is mustering up. Pinging the lids with the rail pulling is #1 BLACK EYE> Loves this track and this is perfect. #5 OUR TOYMAN, expect it to return to best. Gets room early. Remo Rubik is all class..... and should be right in the finish. But I don't see it. I'll call myself stupid after the race.

Horsham Race 8

1 BLACK EYE $2.99
5 OUR TOYMAN $4.11
8 REMO RUBIK $4.56
7 MARROK BALE $16.16
4 CONDOR BALE $17.95
3 JOSEPH BALE $22.16
2 LORD VOLDEMORT $24.63


299-Exacta/Quin

 

[Poizun]

If I am wrong..... then #8 can win! ARGH

There is a HUGE advantage in the red box in this race. Absolutely huge. 0/3 T/D Remo Rubik. Gets worst box for this race. Stuck wide early, wants to cut, but bangs into 4 who is mustering up. Pinging the lids with the rail pulling is #1 BLACK EYE> Loves this track and this is perfect. #5 OUR TOYMAN, expect it to return to best. Gets room early. Remo Rubik is all class..... and should be right in the finish. But I don't see it. I'll call myself stupid after the race.

Horsham Race 8

1 BLACK EYE $2.99
5 OUR TOYMAN $4.11
8 REMO RUBIK $4.56
7 MARROK BALE $16.16
4 CONDOR BALE $17.95
3 JOSEPH BALE $22.16
2 LORD VOLDEMORT $24.63


299-Exacta/Quin

If it pans out like that, I will label you a genius. Black eye definetly is not suited by box 1, regardless of if its a good box @ T/D. It has had 21 starts from inside box for just 2 wins, where as its had 21 starts from outside boxes for 9 wins.

Remo Rubik is 3 wins, 1 place from 5 starts from the pink, and its 3 failures at Horsham have been behind Taipan Bale (When he was unbeatable at provincial level), Hanify's Impact (enough said) and Redline Blitz when he was not quite right.

Still looking forward to the race

 

[maxlad]

100k quaddie pool tonight at albion greys, get on it

 

[bigbunyip14]

Dyna Lachlan is a-mazing. What a start to the Adelaide Cup.

 

[tazlgnd]

Zenith is an absolute monty at Geelong

 

[rizzo]

In There running in the final at Shep tonight. Box 6 is a worry, needs to jump bloody well.

He is also an emergency for Sandown on Thursday

 

[Oaksnaf]

Shep Race 1 ~ Pace from the inside boxes. Outwide are hit and miss. Samba Express can spoil these with clean run, but unlikylt to get it. #9 Croad likes to get off the track at the bend and doesn't race well crowded. But should get nice sit early with room to move.

2 EDDIE CAN DANCE $3.32
1 BLACK MONOPOLY $4.10
6 SAMBA EXPRESS $7.71
9 CROAD $11.75
7 SLOON $13.05
5 TWILIGHT SARAH $16.12
4 BIG CAPPA COOL $17.91
8 OPEN UP $22.11


332-QUIN

 

[Schmucta]

Clearwater Chief for a roughie in the next.

 

[Schmucta]

How are they going to beat Saint Nyasaland tonight at Gawler??

 

[dr nick]

In There running in the final at Shep tonight. Box 6 is a worry, needs to jump bloody well.

He is also an emergency for Sandown on Thursday

third

bosca wabbit bolted it in

 

[Womble]

Hey All,

Question for the greyhound guys so I figured here was as good a place as any - does anyone know where I can find the distances for the first section at the various tracks?

I'm playing around with a spreadsheet and I need them to get a more complete picture.

Cheers

 

[Oaksnaf]

Hey All,

Question for the greyhound guys so I figured here was as good a place as any - does anyone know where I can find the distances for the first section at the various tracks?

I'm playing around with a spreadsheet and I need them to get a more complete picture.

Cheers

This is from elsewhere. It may seem complicated, but once you file it into excel, the information is pretty easy to obtain. If you can't do this. I would suggest that you e-mail GRV for this information as they do have it as far as I know.

The following is a basic computations for acceleration. (i had posted at another site)
There is nothing new here
Acceleration constants for a greyhound can be computed to be 3.9 minus .9 minus 1.89 = 1.11 which is the maximum speed constant.

How relevant can these numbers be one would ask?

Using Sandown Park 515 as our base track, we can apply a few known numbers to confirm our acceleration constants.
Track Record (29.38) minus 1.11= 28.27 ( this rids us of the standing start)
Distance (515) divided by 28.27 = (18.22) Max speed
Maximum Time (29.38) minus 3.9 = 25.48
Maximum Dist 18.22 multiplied 25.48 = 464.17
Acceleration Dist ( 515)minus 464.17 = 50.83

Now to apply the acceleration constants for Proof to find what the first sectional distance would be at Sandown Park we do the following
.9 multiplied 18.22 (maximum speed) = 16.40
1.89 Multiplied 18.22 = 34.43
3.90 minus the known split record is 4.99 = 1.09 multiplied by 18.22 = 19.86

Now we add the following 16.40 + 34.43 + 19.86 = 70.69 metres is the approx. length of the first timed sectional for the 515 distance.

If you looked at all short straight splits, they will all be linear and too a confidence level of .999

Where a split takes in a turn, you need to add a centripetal force formula.

It starts to get a little complicated, as you need to adjust the spped in relation to the radius of the turns, for this you need to use a centripetal formula and constant.

Sounds complicated but its not really.

I compile Track variants, plus I delete outliers in data.

The major difference in those two tracks for me is from a wagering aspect, check the average price of a winner at both, this has a big bearing in how you will construct wagers. ie dropping dogs out of your exotics etc.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Lets get down to business.

Sale

Race 4


Early pace:

1-7-2-6-4-8-3-5

Ability

2-7-4-5-8-1-6-3

Suited

2-7-1-8-4-6-3-5

2 SECRET SHIRAZ $3.44
7 BETH BABES BOY $4.25
1 HELLO CHARLY $5.82
8 MCMORGAN $10.96
4 LATE GOAL $12.18
6 FLIGHT CONTROL $18.56
3 PARTOS SIMBA $25.46
5 WAVE HAZARD $28.28

344-QUIN


Hello Charly can lead this race from the inside draw, but has to lead clearly by the bend to win this as #2 is a stronger dog. If #7 can cross the inside duo, then the race will be over, as there will be a squeeze. This allows #8 to storm home and just miss them. Is slow starter. #4 is perhaps the biggest danger to the race. Can begin quicker than these. The rest arn't suited in my opinion.





Now lets get into the TRICKY business.

BET TYPES

344 = The rating of the race
300-400 = Quinella.

The TOP 10 combinations to TAKE are:

2	7	$3.725
1	2	$2.702
1	7	$2.104
2	8	$1.333
2	4	$1.193
7	8	$1.036
4	7	$0.928
2	6	$0.773
1	8	$0.748
1	4	$0.670

The bet size is relavent to your bank size. This bet size is set for a $400 bank.

ABOVE is the preferred bet type for this race. As we believe that finding the winner has its options.




FOR THE MARKET......

If you were to back EVERY single OVERS selection from the past 147 races, you would be in PROFIT.

If the runner is $2.50 = $40 standard bet on that selection.

Because

1/odds =
1/2.5 =
40%..... turn that into $$
=$40

You can then turn that $40 into your own standard amount.


If your average bet size is $10...

You go $10 X 40%

= $4.


Your WIN BET = $4.


Do that for all runners who are OVERS>



We also keep track of BOXING TOP 4 selections in ALL BET TYPES.

All exotics are showing a profit in BOXING.

Once again. Flexi betting is an option for TRI's and F4's.


You can also put $1 to WIN on TOP 4 selections and would be showing a profit too.




My recommendation is:


Work out your spendage per race. If you can only spend $10 a race. Then base it around the highest S/R. Because your bank wont support the long run of outs.


The highest strike rate. is Boxing TOP 4 selections for Quin/Exacta.

That is $6 Quin and $12 Exacta.


My advice. BOX QUIN $6 and $4 WIN bet on TOP RATING.

As it is showing a 12% profit at level stakes. 30% profit when betting at OVERS. But not all of us can bet at the jump.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Now that I have semi explained what is actually happening in the betting process we can get down to business.


Sale Race 5 ~ Early speed comes from 1,4,5. Although 4,5 are inconsistent and 3 is consistent so should punch up on inside. While the dual is happening in the middle, 1 finds the rails and skips away on the turn.


1 BUDDY NEVEELK $2.64
3 SPEED PLAY $4.98
4 NITRIC OXIDE $9.36
5 OAKMONT KIMMI $10.40
10 CLEAR TO LAND $12.84
8 MATINEE MISSY $17.62
7 LIKA SORCERER $21.75
2 BLACKBERRY ROSE $26.85

264-Exacta

1	3	$2.438
3	1	$1.894
1	4	$1.378
1	5	$1.203
1	6	$1.048
4	1	$0.965
5	1	$0.829
6	1	$0.713
1	8	$0.683
3	4	$0.565

 

[Oaksnaf]

Sale Race 7 ~ Race in two CLEARLY. They both ping, but #8 is the stronger runner. Will get plenty of room early too.

8 PENTHOUSE $1.89
3 SURF HAZARD $3.55
4 MAD CAPER $15.52
2 LITTLE MUMMA HOT $19.15
6 LED ZEPPELIN $29.19
7 SMOKE HOME $44.50
9 EAGLE BAY $67.82

189-TRIFECTA

8	3	4	10.89%	$2.18
8	3	2	8.81%	$1.76
3	8	4	7.12%	$1.42
8	3	6	5.79%	$1.16
3	8	2	5.77%	$1.15
8	4	3	5.06%	$1.01
8	2	3	3.97%	$0.79
8	3	7	3.80%	$0.76
3	8	6	3.79%	$0.76
4	8	3	2.54%	$0.51