Greyhound Thread

[Dan Gerous]

HEATHER'S TIGER in the next 1 and 3 to take each other out i hope

 

[half_back_flank]

Xman (3) in the 11th at Warrnambool. Impressed me with his last run. Should lead, rail up and hold them off.

 

[half_back_flank]

Xman (3) in the 11th at Warrnambool. Impressed me with his last run. Should lead, rail up and hold them off.

1st. Copped a check round the bend but railed up and pulled away up the straight. Very happy with the 4 dollars odd.

 

[Dan Gerous]

yah Xman is a good dog, have been backin it for a few months now and have been fairly profitable on it.... Especially the night at b-rat were it got up from the pink and paid over $20... it was an awesome night!!!

 

[lionsman80]

Hey guys,

Dont know if any of you guys have checked out my tipping site, but if you haven't the check out the stats page http://goldengreyhoundtips.com/?page_id=51

2 months has just ticked over and using my staking plan with a starting bank of $1000 we have just burst through the $5000 mark, so over $4000 profit it 2 months...not to be sneezed at!!!!!

Also I have just joined up at THE GREAT TIP OFF so people can see my tips are not altered, to see my last 15 tips and stats go to http://thegreattipoff.com/Engine/performance.cfm?action=Pers&id=405

Ignore my gallops and harness tips, was me mucking around to get to know the site lol...you will find my dog tips a lot more profitable lol.

Cheers

 

[Oaksnaf]

I have never understood why you would want to give away profitable tips for a fee that is unlikely to recoup the amount lost in VALUE if you are consistently profitable.

I am of the opinion, that if you are going to provide a service, it should be much more than just tips.

Because at the end of the day, you (the Tip provider) will be having extra bets on the side, whether they are exotics, or just extra tips.

I've seen you pop up on a few forums and that seems to be the case.

But good luck with the tipping.

Although I must say that if you want to 'lure' some members across to your paying site, you should give out some pointers and some handy information that us less informed greyhound followers, or just punters in general could use to our benefit.

Things like:

Box 1 on most occassions always represents UNDERS in the market. I don't have the information to confirm. But Box 1 holds the most volume in betting per year. And considering that Box 1 isn't the BEST BOX at every track or at every distance there is plenty of scope for laying on betfair.

Especially in the cases of odds on favourites. Betfair Box 1 =< $2.00 = lay.

BOX 1 is only the Best Box across 20/33 distances. But the mentality of punters is that Box 1 is the Best Box ALL the time.

This is not the case, and it is important to remember when backing Box 1 selections that you are normally going to get UNDERS in your win betting and in your exotics. Especially quaddies.

If we were to purely concentrate on Box 1. We would look at the track/distance stats and determine how much improvement it gives to the greyhound.

But the confusing part is. Since Box 1 is such a great box, it gives some runners an extra 1-2 lengths in ability through suitability.

So what we have to realise is, how often Box 1 is apart of the exotics.



What you have to work out is:

What is more profitable.

In level stakes WIN betting, could Box 4 be more profitable than Box 1?


Answer: Yes.

Strangely enough, the races that I do my markets on, Box 4 is showing a PROFIT at level stakes. And by a reasonable %.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Shepparton Greyhounds

There are 10 races. Lets provide 10 top raters

Race 1 #1 Balotelli
Race 2 #3 Rocking Out
Race 3 #8 Just Jet Powder
Race 4 #2 Fighter Fuel
Race 5 #8 Arvo's Chill
Race 6 #3 Silent Assassin
Race 7 #2 Sangakarra
Race 8 #8 Revel In
Race 9 #5 Grando's Choice
Race 10 #1 Sempre

But going back to Race 1

This is the market:

1	BALOTELLI	$2.99
3	HOT SENSATION	$5.07
7	ACES DELIGHT	$6.26
5	QUICK CONNECT	$8.59
6	ZIPPY TAY HAY	$13.09
8	FULL OF FIRE	$17.95
10	KID FREDDIE	$27.36
4	HUGE UNIT	$41.71

The reasoning behind this, is that #4 Huge Unit is in the worst box and does like to have plenty of room when racing. Couple that with the speed from 1,3,5,6,7 and you can see #4 getting bottled up and spat out to the rear.

#1 Balotelli is in reasonable form and if holds the rail should hold these off as many wont chase hard enough in the concluding stages.

The bets will be as follow:

Box Top 4 in all exotics. $60
Back OVERS in market
Double bet if Top 4 in market is OVERS

 

[Oaksnaf]

And the TOP RATER wins @ $4.10 S-TAB. Plenty of OVERS to be had.

Race 2

3	ROCKING OUT	$2.80
1	PROVOKE	$5.27
5	FLYING JAZZ	$6.50
4	ELYSIUM	$8.03
2	PANTHEON	$9.91
8	SISCO STAR	$28.42
7	MOUNT MERCER	$43.31
6	BEST CHORD	$66.02

 

[Oaksnaf]

Horsham

Horsham Race 5

7 OUR VERA $2.83
5 BELENA HAZE $4.79
3 GABINO BALE $5.91
8 KORI JANE $8.11
6 MOLLY JANINE $18.84
4 ZIPPY TAY HAY $23.25
1 CLOSING ELEMENT $35.44
2 FLYING CONTROL $48.62

283-EXACTA

Horsham Race 6 --- 410m boxes holds no advantage for anyone here as there is a long straight run to the first turn. Find the leader here and you've found your winner.

8 KYNANS EXPRESS $2.09
4 NOBODYS RICKY $7.39
3 LYNLEA ZAC $9.13
6 KAFELNIKOV $10.14
5 BOYNE WATER $13.91
1 JENMAR BARON $17.17
2 REMO RIOT $32.31
7 REMO MAKO $60.80

209-EXACTA

Horsham Race 7

4 MATINEE MISSY $3.38
3 ROSE PATCH $5.15
7 SELYNYA SURPRISE $5.72
2 MY WORD $7.85
1 IDOIA BALE $14.77
5 FAST FORWARD $18.24
6 POT THANKS CORK $20.26
8 SHIRAZ VIEW $27.80

338-QUIN

Horsham Race 8

5 PURE BING $3.05
1 MELALUKA LAD $4.18
8 UNO KISSY $8.75
4 CELTIC COCO $9.72
2 RESILIENT $13.33
3 BOOMA SAMMY $14.81
7 SWAN MARSH $22.58
6 SGHERZA $34.41

305- QUIN

Horsham Race 9

2 SEEK AND DESTROY $2.37
1 BORN LOUIE $2.93
4 SAINT BODDSMITH $12.80
8 MOLLY CAN DANCE $14.22
5 LORD VOLDEMORT $26.76
3 KALIMNA CHANCE $40.79
6 BEYOND CONTROL $62.17
9 ELUSIVE BOND $94.76

237 - EXACTA

 

[Poizun]

Bit confusing how you put Our Vera a clear top pick over the clear second pick in Belena Haze, yet you tip one out Belena Haze in the league format.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Bit confusing how you put Our Vera a clear top pick over the clear second pick in Belena Haze, yet you tip one out Belena Haze in the league format.

Thats ok. Tipping Comp is a bit of fun. Markets is the real deal.

 

[Poizun]

Thats ok. Tipping Comp is a bit of fun. Markets is the real deal.

Thats true..But wouldnt you pick the dog you give the most chance? Or do you just pick a random dog for the hell of it? Because you have selected your other 4 top picks.....

O well..

 

[bigbunyip14]

In there. Wow. If I had chickens to count. I would have counted them twice. I can't believe it got pipped on the home straight! Christ

 

[cleveland]

In there. Wow. If I had chickens to count. I would have counted them twice. I can't believe it got pipped on the home straight! Christ

Just shows you how strong Red Bandanna is, will make the grade as a stayer i think

 

[bigbunyip14]

I'm definately following red bandanna after this.

 

[Poizun]

Carcoar Kurt has some big wraps on it coming in the 2nd race at Bendigo today. The true indicator will be the influx of the money on the NSW tote... If it runs up to how it has rumoured to trial, not much will get near it... Bad box for a first start maiden tho..

 

[Poizun]

Carcoar Kurt has some big wraps on it coming in the 2nd race at Bendigo today. The true indicator will be the influx of the money on the NSW tote... If it runs up to how it has rumoured to trial, not much will get near it... Bad box for a first start maiden tho..

There is your answer..No money for it and duelly raced accordingly...

 

[Dan Gerous]

hey poizun, do ya know where and what time the trials for that dog were?

 

[half_back_flank]

Shep, Race 6 - Crows Crusier.

A favourite of mine, has been down on form lately, yet recorded a nice win last start. Loves it out wide, and has early pace to burn. Will have plenty of room to move with a vacant box next to her. Will be short thanks to some handy scratching, yet isa class or two above this lot.

3rd, was too short at 1.60.

Have a small place bet on pure intensity in the 9th race.

 

[half_back_flank]

Have a small place bet on pure intensity in the 9th race.

2nd, happy with the 3.80 on unitab, gets me ahead for the night.

 

[Oaksnaf]

An interesting betting race in the next at Shep.

#5 HIDDEN WORDS provides plenty of overs for the exotics and win bets. #2 returns from a spell and should run better than previous.
#8 huge unders here.

5-4-2-1

 

[half_back_flank]

An interesting betting race in the next at Shep.

#5 HIDDEN WORDS provides plenty of overs for the exotics and win bets. #2 returns from a spell and should run better than previous.
#8 huge unders here.

5-4-2-1

Well done Oaks, nice trifecta there.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Thanks.

I don't like any of the inside dogs in the next race at Shep. Simply because they are all slow starters. Golden Greek is going to give #5 AMETHYST BEAUTY a beautiful run in the race, and then followed by the outside runners who should swoop on the bend.

#4 is in a new kennel I believe, out of Hendersons. So might have a new lease of life. But will need a lot more than that to win here. Maybe one for F4s.

#5-8-7-4

 

[half_back_flank]

Lots of value in the 10th at warrnambool with Mick the Mozz likely to be 1.50 or less. I'm going to be on slipaway spider. Not in great form atm, but was handy in his first few races with a good box draw here.

 

[half_back_flank]

Lots of value in the 10th at warrnambool with Mick the Mozz likely to be 1.50 or less. I'm going to be on slipaway spider. Not in great form atm, but was handy in his first few races with a good box draw here.

2nd. Mick the Mozz salutes as all 1.50 shots should.